NEM back with typical twists

The king of unpredictability, NEM, has come back with a couple of twists. The DD in BOB has been influenced by the Indian High pressure area’s ridge much earlier than expected, in central BOB itself, so it has taken a NW/WNW track prematurely and could turn westward sooner or later. There are possibilities of this system coming to C/S AP and maybe provide some isolated showers for Chennai and coastal AP.

image

But most of the attention lies on the upcoming BOB system which is expected to develop into a cyclone and head for TN/S.AP coasts. However it would probably be more towards TN as the ridge has moved south. Interesting days are ahead.

1,205 thoughts on “NEM back with typical twists

  1. There are 32 districts in Tamil Nadu…past three years i am seeing people from few districts only participating in the discussion. I request the silent followers should break the ice and start sharing some local weather related information. I am from Tiruvannamalai district but currently in UAE so I can excuse my self. What about local enthusiasts? I wish KEA should penetrant beyond Chennai.

    • Hi Sowmith, welcome to Kea Weather Blog.

      Since KEA metsite is Chennai based, discussions about the weather in Chennai and surroundings will obviously be more. Fyi there are bloggers from as far as USA tracking the weather here, so location isn’t a constraint. Moreover, you are welcome to post about weather in UAE here. 🙂

      Happy Blogging!

  2. Latest JTWC report :

    Issue time 062100Z

    POSITION NEAR 13.3N 87.9E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST
    OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT
    IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND
    DEGREE OF WRAP HAS REMAINED VIRTUALLY THE SAME OVER THE PAST 12
    HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS TRIANGULATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 061508Z SCATTEROMETRY
    BULLS-EYE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
    ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    SYSTEM IS IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LEAVES IN
    AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    HOWEVER, GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS ARE OFFSETTING THE
    VWS AND PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE
    CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
    12 HOURS AS THE WESTERN LEAF OF THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
    MECHANISM. TC 05B WILL SEE NOMINAL INTENSIFICATION (PEAKING AT 45
    KNOTS) BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO THE
    MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SHORT OVER-WATER TRACK. THE AVAILABLE
    NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
    CURRENT QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
    THE THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
    TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12
    FEET.

  3. LAtest JTWC bulletin shows system crossing near Chennai as a marginal system with speeds upto 45 knots after 48 hours .
    System will cross the land as a decent system .

  4. Extended outlook :

    48 HRS, VALID AT:

    081800Z — 13.1N 82.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    091800Z — 13.7N 79.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS

    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    96 HRS, VALID AT:
    101800Z — 13.9N 77.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    • Hi rame there might be some typo error it seems from JTWC at 72 hrs might be 12.7N then only it can cross at chennai

      • No typo error . It crosses the land and moves slight north west direction as per JTWC track forecast.
        BTW it would cross near by Chennai some 50 kms in the north direction. Chennai is at 13.08 N , 80.27 E

  5. Convection from the current depression moved south and
    This system will make landfall in N.TN as weak low and it is expected to provide moderate rains.

  6. As expected its making ‘u’ turn,,few days back guessed its going to be madi 2 crossing between pondy and Nellore unlike madi which crossed Vedaranyam..will get 5cm minimum..guessing..

  7. So far its good here in calgary,Canada with max 10 and min 0,-2 with occassional snow of < 1 cm..but next monday max itself -12..

  8. Hi all…

    now its like calm before storm… with silent mist around.. every1 start saying dat fog came down so no rain hereafter. but they r unaware that BOb is preparing a treat for us..

  9. Yeah i agree with this it is the silence before the storm. And it is not cold too. So may be we have some surprise waitin for us. Lets keep are fingers crossed.

  10. although it crosses near tn means it will provide just moderate spell till throught out the day with winds……may be 5 to 6 cm possible…
    but next system would be the attention for us,,..

  11. Imd forecast saying it will cross as depression near ap.No where tn is coming in imd report.may be morning bulletin will change their prediction

  12. Wow..double dhamaka….the in coming would be ashobaa…..is going to push the bay low into TN and follows…the same path to puonce upon us……record rains are on card…

  13. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST
    OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT
    IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND
    DEGREE OF WRAP HAS REMAINED VIRTUALLY THE SAME OVER THE PAST 12
    HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS TRIANGULATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 061508Z SCATTEROMETRY
    BULLS-EYE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
    ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    SYSTEM IS IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LEAVES IN
    AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    HOWEVER, GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS ARE OFFSETTING THE
    VWS AND PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE
    CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
    12 HOURS AS THE WESTERN LEAF OF THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
    MECHANISM. TC 05B WILL SEE NOMINAL INTENSIFICATION (PEAKING AT 45
    KNOTS) BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO THE
    MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SHORT OVER-WATER TRACK. THE AVAILABLE
    NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
    CURRENT QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
    THE THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
    TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12
    FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 70900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
    NNNN

  14. now this system is exactly 450km away from Chennai..
    onc it started reaching 390km we will start receiving drizzles with cloudy climate and the heavy rain would be seen with respect to its intensity/position..

  15. The king kong (ashobaa) on the way coming briskly..about to cross malasia….guys start preparing for a grand welcome…

  16. Deep Depression in Bay now targets TN as it comes under Indian HPA Ridge and makes all models prediction look awkward.
    ======================================
    Odisha Landfall, North AP landfall, West Bengal Landfall, Bangladesh and Burma Landfall. These were the targets shown by all the models and also IMD sensing that Burma side ridge will steer it north but what happened was a twist and the Indian HPA moved over North Bay blocked the movement of Depression north and steers it down to Tamil Nadu. JTWS have upgraded it as a cyclone 05 B. IMD has not yet named the system. It has weakened a lot now but expected to intensify again today and will weaken again.

    The Cyclone will towards TN come as a LPA to North Tamil Nadu on 9th November. Some Light rains can be expected on 9th and 10th November in Chennai. The cold nights will go away soon.

    The steering pattern and the mult-model tracks are given below.

  17. In the last few hours, this system showing signs of bouncing back with energy. NTN should get some reasonable rains from Sat. night if it holds to western path.

    • It does not matter at the end whether it is 13 .8 or 14.1. Westward towards general Chennai direction is important now.

  18. El Nino Update on 7th November2014

    Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. Nothing has materialized as yet and we have completed 10 months of 2014 with no month having ONI index equaling or exceeding +0.5.

    El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

    La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

    By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.


    (Courtesy: Ashok Patel, Ring road weather station)

      • it better not be named. We are better off without cyclones. We will get more rains without cyclones than a cyclone

      • Named just to arise the curiosity and hope…sorry….yes last week so much of confusion by unauthorized namings..

      • absolutely kea… happened to go to vizag recently. place is devastated. speak to any commenor. they have a sob story to tell about dredful hud hud.

        our infra structure would crumble to pieces for even a cat 1. so better to hope for depression and lows and not bigger ones.

        more over heavy rains would supply water more to sea than our wate4 bodies or incr3asing the water table. As weather enthusiasts we may want cyclones. but a commoner would stay away and prefer to good rainss… simpke rains but sustained onea.

  19. Shear was 20 knots till yesterday but increased after that to 30 knots, if not happened this system will not weaken into Depression.

    Also SST over NTN and SAP coast is just at 28C, not favourable for strengthening, if its more than 30C, it would have become CAT3 or CAT4 storm.

  20. Looking JTWC past where it looped it remains me:

    Naanga Left la Indicator poduvom..Rightla kaiyaa kaatukom…Anaa neraa poavom. ..lol!!!

  21. If system goes to our north we get only winds ,they get rain……………the strong NEM wind should push it above pondy for benefits

  22. The next system will make landfall just north of Chennai on 12th. Chennai will get some rains from it to. It looks like a rain filled system.

    Some places will get over 200 mm for sure.

  23. Both the systems seems to be planning to give superb rainfall to South AP but before that it should do its duty in chennai first.

  24. Cyclone alert withdrawn as deep depression stalls in Bay
    ———————————

    India Met Department has said in an update midnight last night that the deep depression over central Bay remained practically stationary during past 12 hours.

    LIKELY LANDFALL

    It was located 750 km east-southeast of Ongole, 560 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 730 km east northeast of Chennai.

    It is now expected to move westwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast and weaken gradually into a depression before reaching coast on Sunday morning.

    MODERATE RAIN

    The Met has said that moderate rain would lash various districts in Andhra Pradesh on Saturday and Sunday as the depression draws nearer to the coast.

    Squally weather may prevail along the Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture out into the nearby seas, the Met added.

    Meanwhile, the Met is watching a low-pressure area evolving in the Gulf of Thailand and preparing to hop over into the Andaman Sea early next week.

    It suspects that the system may get further traction in the adjoining Bay of Bengal and grow in strength to become another tropical cyclone.

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has refused to buy into this, though a host of US models are willing to.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/cyclone-alert-withdrawn-as-deep-depression-stalls-in-bay/article6573447.ece

  25. Meanwhile, the Met is watching a low-pressure area evolving in the Gulf of Thailand and preparing to hop over into the Andaman Sea early next week.

    It suspects that the system may get further traction in the adjoining Bay of Bengal and grow in strength to become another tropical cyclone.

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has refused to buy into this, though a host of US models are willing to.

    India Met posits the evolving system for a likely landfall over the Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by midweek next week.

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