Multiple Bay systems confuses all

Two systems could form within the next 7 days and forecasters are having a tough time with them. The next few days are going to be very interesting. As of now the 2nd system, is targeting Chennai. This would make landfall around Nov 12th.

 

xxirmet5n

1,291 thoughts on “Multiple Bay systems confuses all

  1. JTWC has upgraded the chances of 1st system to intensify into a Cyclone as high. IMD not always agrees though. Let’s see

  2. The bay system defying western disturbance… ..reminding rasogulla…storing so much of rains..if it sustain there for few more days..our easterlies catch it may push it south..

  3. The depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centred at 2330 hours IST of 5th November, 2014 near latitude 13.50 N and longitude 87.50 E, about 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair, 650 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 760 km south-southeast of Paradip.

  4. Yesterday Imd kept high probability fotr tis system to turn into a cyclone in next 24 to 48 hrs.. now it’s just a step away to declare

  5. Its two early to predict komen. I feel komen will form in Andaman from where it will keep tamilnadu as its track aim direct hit at the coast.

  6. Chennai experience Bangalore like weather current temperature around 23 degrees we are in a situation where we dont need to sit under a fan so pleasant chilly

  7. As typhoon nuri lost it’s steam..its good chance for dd to move north west..then move down the coast towards south to bring some good rains for few days..

  8. It( Current system) should be weaken and moved in NE direction by this time according to our models but i don’t find any change in system . It has moved Just Northwards a little bit…

  9. Nature offering her twists and turns and making it fascinating for her followers.
    Komen-in–making-KIM was actually tracking w-sw yesterday and is now predicted to take a slight N-NW track.
    After crossing the Malay landmass,a few models show it to be dragged NW due to Ashobaa’s influence and thats the reason they are taking KIM to AP.
    If the Arab ridge continues to stay strong and Ashobaa’s influence is nullified by this ridge,then we stand a chance.

  10. looks like the mystery still continues.. may be by tomorrow we might have some clarity.. then the Komen mystery will start as it tracks towards the andaman sea

  11. The system started its brisk walk towards shore…let this system die fast and give way for TN’s system…the two twins are tormenting us from last 10 days..

  12. Hi All,

    This is what i said yesterday, that dont be in a hurry in predicting second system movement.
    Once again GFS changes the track towards Central AP.
    Lets wait for the present system to dissipate, then we will have clue.

    Important Info is that – ECMWF does not capture the second system, it says as weak low.

  13. The plot unfolding has all the features of an Indian movie, suspense, action, thriller and a potential love story (between Ashobaa and Komen). Lets just sit back and enjoy (not much can be done anyways)

  14. Let the new system go to srilanka..at least we will get few cms…if the new also goes andhra way…even drizzle also become luxury

  15. Explanation of super cyclone Phailin-2013’s (October 4-14) landfall and intensity by MJSOI-2G (+ve) phase diagram:

    (1) Track:
    With this MJSOI-2G (+ve) phase diagram, we can derive tracks A & B for Phailin’s landfall. But due to more northerly alignment of the ridge in pre-NEM season, track B is ruled out. So according to track A, Phailin made landfall on 12th October-2013 at Gopalpur.

    (2) Intensity:
    Due to MJO & SOI’s favorable co-ordination (refer MJSOI-general phase diagram), Phailin grown to catastrophic intensity.

    Note:
    SOI’s 30 or 90 day average values stayed above +5, so used MJSOI-2G (+ve) diagram.

    MJSOI-general phase diagram: http://s15.postimg.org/fa0j0jagb/Page_1_MJSOI_1_model_05_16_2014.jpg

    Phailin-2013’s MJSOI-2G (+ve) phase diagram: http://s11.postimg.org/nc2omgear/MJSOI_positive_Phailin.gif

  16. Far away on the other side of the bay Yangoon is silently stealing the show. Rains must be pounding there now looking at the satellite image

  17. The depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved
    northwards and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of 6th November, 2014 over central Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.80 N and longitude 87.50 E, about 610 km west-northwest of Port Blair, 630 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 730 km south-southeast of Paradip. It would move nearly northwards initially and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs.

    Heavy rainfall warning: Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over Andaman during the next 24 hours. Moderate rainfall would occur at many places over districts of north Andhra Pradesh and coastal Odisha on 8th & 9th November, 2014

      • Relax, it has not happened yet..You can be disappointed once it actually happens..There is currently a strong feeling this system wont survive itself..

    • 2D-gyric map model also indicated this NAP landfall without any hesitation when all models indicating N/NE track towards Bangladesh/Myanmar/WB and even Orissa. That too at early stage only with satellite pictures. Its too great.

      Hudhud (1st system), Nilofer (2nd system) and Ashobaa (3rd system). 2D-gyric map model rocks with 100% success rate πŸ™‚

      2D-gyric map model: http://s16.postimg.org/fin9g7qvp/sector_ir_1.jpg

      • thx Rajesh. this is nothing but I am used to tell cyclone is making DD-1 symbol since last 1 yr. Derived from the same concept.

        Initially I thought could not make DILF’s for this Ashobaa due to its too complexity to recognize innermost convergent and divergent lines.

        But luckily it thrown 2 probable satellite pictures to draw DILFs. Among these 2, we can derive only landfall point for only one satellite pictures.

        For all other (later and earlier) satellite pictures, we can not draw DILFs.

  18. How could we predict the path, LF of a second system which comes right behind a active system. I feel we must let the first system either to intensify and cross coast or dissipate, as it can significantly impact many weather parameters. Only then second system can set a track. Nature can even play its fancy game by let the first system fizzle out in open waters feeding the second system

  19. Hey I don’t want ashooba or Komen to make destruction in Chennai….. WML or D to stay near our coast to give heavy rains to Chennai…. Don’t forget about CS nilam only 9cm fell in Chennai… Though It was only a cs and made destruction like anything 150 to 200 trees were uprooted in Chennai and my cycle was destroyed by a tree fell on it…. Tough only cs can make destruction like this means many of us are asking for CAT 3 + cyclone to Chennai… Think what will happen if CAT 3 + cyclone makes landfall in Chennai…… Only WML or D is enough to give 10 to 15 cm per day to Chennai…. So please pray for D like 2005 Oct and heavy rains to Chennai…..

  20. Past three(12z, 18z, 00z) model runs of Parallel GFS and GFS showing Komen making a lanfall at Ongole. Lets wait for more model runs and if they consistently shows Ongole landfall then most probably Komen will go to CAP.

  21. RSMC-Delhi will name the system if attains Cyclonic Storm status as below

    CategorySustained winds
    (3-min average)Super Cyclonic Storm>120 kt
    >222 km/hVery Severe
    Cyclonic Storm64–119 kt
    118–221 km/hSevere Cyclonic
    Storm48–63 kt
    88–117 km/hCyclonic Storm34–47 kt
    62–87 km/hDeep Depression28–33 kt
    52–61 km/hDepression≀27 kt
    ≀51 km/h

  22. Lets all forget about the System-1, its not going to affect us by any means.
    We need to concentrate on system-2. Best time to start following it is from Saturday. No point discussing it today.

  23. We all need Rain! πŸ˜€ No cyclone! Time is running out fast! Cyclone is ruining everything! :/ No more expectation! πŸ˜€ Deep depression is more than enough!

  24. The second system also goin towards C Ap as per latest GFS. But it also predicts some rain for chennai from that. lets see. GFS is changing with every update. it would all depend on the scenario when konmen actually enters the bay

  25. coutr- jtcw SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
    /REISSUED/060400Z-061800ZNOV2014//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZNOV2014//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
    RMKS/
    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
    AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
    (1) AT 060000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
    13.8N 87.0E, APPROXIMATELY 534 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, AND HAD
    TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
    TO 45 KNOTS.

  26. Now I know why ECMWF is still maintaining NTN as the LF for KIM or AIM…After passing the Malay landmass,they show it passing the Car Nicobar whereas GFS thinks it will cross Port Blair enroute to our Coast…Thats the difference.

    So 8th Nov is a crucial day which will seal the fate of KIM or AIM.

  27. Tracking North steadily

    ===== ADT-Version 8.2.1 =====
    —-Intensity— -Tno Values– —Tno/CI Rules— -Temperature-
    Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
    Date (UTC) CI (CKZ)/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon Mthd Sat VZA Comments
    2014NOV06 013000 2.5 1002.3 35.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -79.16 -80.05 UNIFRM N/A N/A 13.85 -87.00 FCST MET7 38.1
    2014NOV06 020000 2.6 1001.5 37.0 2.6 2.7 3.4 0.2T/hour OFF OFF -79.16 -79.60 UNIFRM N/A N/A 13.87 -87.00 FCST MET7 38.1
    2014NOV06 040000 2.6 1001.5 37.0 2.6 2.8 3.8 0.2T/hour OFF OFF -75.06 -79.25 EMBC N/A N/A 13.93 -87.00 FCST MET7 38.1
    2014NOV06 043000 2.7 1000.6 39.0 2.7 3.0 3.4 0.2T/hour OFF OFF -77.06 -77.69 UNIFRM N/A N/A 13.95 -87.00 FCST MET7 38.1
    2014NOV06 050000 2.8 999.6 41.0 2.8 3.0 3.7 0.2T/hour OFF OFF -73.16 -75.19 EMBC N/A N/A 13.96 -87.00 FCST MET7 38.1
    2014NOV06 053000 3.0 997.6 45.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.2T/hour OFF OFF -71.26 -72.26 UNIFRM N/A N/A 13.98 -87.00 FCST MET7 38.1
    Utilizing history file /data2/misc/adt/scripts/history/05B.ODT
    Successfully completed listing

  28. @rajeshrd:disqus ,

    Now you can understand that this system can intensify under 20 knots moderate shear, it is going to intensify to cyclone.
    This is what i said today morning, if it moves towards north coastal ap then it can intensify as the shear is low.

    parthasri35, Rajakilpakkam β€’ an hour ago

    Guys,

    If system does not move towards North or NE and if it moves NW towards North Coastal AP, then there is a very good chance for the first system to intensify into a Cat 1 storm.

    Below 17N the shear is very low at 20 knots and dry air is only above 16N, hence system will get more strength.

Please restrict Comments to Weather only

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s