1,232 thoughts on “Dry weather expected to continue

  1. JTWC Update

    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
    /OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZNOV2014//

    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8N 87.9E,
    APPROXIMATELY 565 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH
    DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE POORLY-DEFINED
    LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041548Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
    INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 041151Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK CORE
    OF WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 300NM FROM THE
    CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, JUST
    EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20
    KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

    At Rammb Cira they said it was located at 13.3N and 88.9E, now JTWC reports 11.8N 87.9E what direction does the system moving

      • Hi Chandra ji at Rammb Cira at 201411041200 was located at 13.3N and 88.9E, now JTWC reports at 201411041800 11.8N 87.9E what direction does the system moving

      • according to the forecasts this system will not intensify much but will move in a north eastern direction away from India.. this in turn will leave Tamilnadu and south AP dry before the next system forms.
        The next system is atleast a week away

      • Madi has curved and crossed vedaranyam and that’s the reason Chennai didn’t get enough rains,,but mayiladuthurai,vedaranyam areas got more than 10 cm rain on that day…what if this system takes the curve and crosses between pondy and nellore then Chennai will get rain rt.
        i am not technically good in considering the factors like u experts but i refer past cyclone history and guessing..anything is possible,rt

      • yeah thats possible provided the steering winds and the HPA moves away.. as what steers the system is the HPA positioned to the east of the system and the system tracking along the periphery of the HPA
        In my opnion systems that take south west turn in bay do so, when they lose strength. somestimes they just fizzle out in the open seas.
        But am worried about is dry weather continuing till about 15 to 16th Nov.. and usually NOV sees more dry air pushing down the peninsula

  2. NGFS shows this system would cross NTN/SAP as a low on 10th and a potent threat of severe cyclone for NTN by 15th. Pray our reservoirs are filled by the next system.

      • Remember what happened in 2008 and the turnaround in last week of November? It shows how things can quickly change.

      • Sanjay, Even Bombay region which gets about 2000 mm during SWM gets a break during the monsoon period though the period stretches for four months there compared to 2 and a half month here..I agree as July is the crucial month for SWM , November is the most crucial month during NEM..And again November has not been that bad..We have already got about 75 mm since the start of this month and you got to expect these sort of breaks as NEM rains are system driven unlike SWM.

      • The amts of rain kerala, costal karnataka and mumbai region gets are excessive, chennai just cant compare to those regions. What I mean is NEM following the last 2-years pattern and does not look good.

  3. Awesome, here is what the king ECMWF expects of the 2nd system. It is expecting a strong easterly wave with a circulation in SW BOB that is dragging the remnants of the current system toward it too!


    • Does that mean, the first system waiting for its funeral come and relive with the second one and provide us the much needed rains come November 2nd week.

      • Yes, the 2nd system is expected to come into SW BOB. You know there is something special when ECMWF forecasts it.

  4. The inhibiting effects of shear are reducing on the system. It is now showing good central convection and could intensify further in the coming hours coupled with good SST. In my opinion it is already a depression and IMD will take lots of time to declare that due to unknown reasons. Expect this to become a deep depression by tonight or tomorrow morning

  5. Shear is decreasing to the storms NE.. it could develop well if it enters those areas provided that the ridges limit their influence on it.

  6. Rofl..rammb stopped tracking current system 91B.. then what else they r tracking ?? Yes they have started tracking 99W, next system which models shown as hitting S.AP ( likely ashoba)..

  7. This is like last year ..the moment Helen remnant hitting the coast,another monster came inside bay in the name of lehar

  8. IMD forecast in News channels that another new cyclone in andaman and rain expected to continue in tamilnadu and puducherry.
    But sure no rains for next 2 days.

  9. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, cyclonic circulation in the Andaman Sea looks like a very wide low level cyclonic circulation prevailing over east central Bay, south central Bay and adjoining southwest Bay. The system also indicates the possibility of existence of more than one system. One cyclonic disturbance will be formed around central and adjoining Bay and the other over southwest bay of Tamil Nadu coast.

  10. Good Morning Guys,

    One basic request to all of you,

    Do not pass on Negative comments on NEM 2014, this will become the message to new commers of the blog.
    They may take this negative message and pass it on to others, then monsoon will revive, it will create bad name to KEA bloggers.

    Just 17 days gone by since NEM onset, still most of the stations in TN have received excess rainfall.
    Almost 97% of the stations with excess rainfall, including Chennai.

    Why you have that dissappointment?

    NEM will have long dry spells, that is the nature of this monsoon, should have patience.
    Whenever you blog, you cannot expect rainfall.

    I have given the prediction for NEM 2014 on September 24th in which i have said that NEM will be Normal to Excess overall.
    North TN may get near Normal and South will get Excess.
    I still have faith and confidence that NEM 2014 will be successful.

    You can have Negative opinion on upcoming systems or in short term forecasts but should not spread messages like NEM 2014 will fail.

    I request moderators to delete these kind of comments in future.

    • Yes partha, we too feel this year we should be having near normal rainfall after two years of NEM failure. We all pray nature does not disappoint us this year too but seeing lull in rains during peak NEM month is bit frustrating, but as you said NEM is characterized by long dry periods and one system to us can make a large difference in wiping the deficit as we had during this year NEM onset.

  11. Very strong westerlies are pulling all our systems…easterlies are at present only near equator.. Hence don’t expect any systems to strike TN.

  12. ENSO Wrap-Up
    Warm tropical Pacific Ocean, but ENSO remains neutral
    Overall, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed over the past two months, and the Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, but indicators generally remain in the neutral range. The existence of warmer-than-average water in the tropical Pacific sub-surface supports a continuation of the current near-El Niño conditions.

    International climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to persist. Three of eight models reach El Niño thresholds in January 2015, and two remain just shy of thresholds. Australian rainfall and temperature patterns show some El Niño-like impacts, with the country generally warmer and drier than usual over recent months. Warmer central tropical Pacific waters late in the year typically result in warmer and drier weather for parts of eastern Australia, an increase in bushfire risk in the south, and average to below-average numbers of tropical cyclones in the Australian region.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April.

  13. I am having a confusion as to ” Which system will develop, the first one or second one?” IMD had put out a depression forecast for the first one whereas Selva mentioned that raamb started tracking one another rather than the first. Can anyone throw light on this?

  14. Ashobaa is just sitting in the middel of bay of bengal and thinking whether to go away from chennai coast or let it me trythe last push against the ridge and reach chennai coast and give awesome rains to rain hungry kea bloggers. Hope she is able to do that.

  15. Guys,

    The first system travels in NE direction till 07th as an LPA, then takes u turn to west from 08th, and comes near to Odisha coast on 09th and then shifts to North TN and South AP by 10th. This is not the second system, this is first system.

  16. Its good to hear to new formed deep depression has been named “Ashobaa” today.. Expecting that, after 48 hrs tamilnadu coastal areas can expect heavy rains – IMD..

    Source: Polimer news

  17. As per my below comment yesterday that minimum temp recorded today is
    Meena 21.4 and Nunga 22C.
    More cooler days ahead.

    parthasri35, Rajakilpakkam • 20 hours ago

    Guys,

    As the HPA going to hinder the monsoon for next 5 days atleast, lets get ready for cold nights.
    It is going to be dry, and the minimum temp for next 5 days will drop below normal,
    may be even 2-3 degrees below normal, near 21-20C.

  18. Before we had kea, we used to deal with the long gaps in NEM as part of the game. Typical. Just that with more data we get to understand better the hits and misses, and lament about what could have been possible..

    A question to kea and its experts. Would it be fair to say that the total moisture carried and released by NEM has remained fairly steady – just that the locations where the systems target have been a major variable. If Chennai had its bonanza years between say 2005 – 2010 (recent times), it would have also meant that other reasons went without their quota of rains.

    One last note.. I have mentioned this before.. Chennai with an average rainfall of 130 cms with rains distributed between June to December (7 months) is well placed as far as rains are concerned. Bombay gets 200 cm in three months and then remains parched. Calcutta tops – 160cm, well distributed and Hooghly meandering through.

  19. Guys,

    The first system which is going to come over us on 10th will be an LPA.

    Dont get any idea of it becoming Ashobaa.

    This will intesify into Depression in next 24 hours, then in subsequent 24 hours, it will weaken again into WML.
    After that this will moving all along to Odisha coast and shifting to North TN coast till 10th as WML and then weaken to LPA only.

    The maximum strength going to be Depression in next 24 hours.

    Unless a tropical system gain strength of Cyclone, they do not name it.

    The first system cannot become Ashobaa.

  20. I am sure that 2nd system will move NE direction. Wind direction is not favor for us right now. It will recurve after Nov 6-7 and move in WSW direction. But there is a high chance for dissipating in sea itself since dry air will kill it. Or it may move further lower as LPA and hit SAP/ TN.

  21. Weak MJO activity
    As forecast last week, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) weakened and did not have a strong influence on tropical weather over the past week.

    International models show a range of forecasts, with some predicting the MJO to remain weak and others forecasting the signal to strengthen over Africa later this week. If the MJO strengthens over Africa, it typically brings suppressed convection to northern Australia.

  22. Warm tropical Pacific waters, but ENSO remains neutral
    El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators and Australian rainfall patterns continue to show some El Niño-like signatures, but remain in the neutral range. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed over the past two months, with the latest NINO3.4 SST anomaly at +0.7 °C. The latest Southern Oscillation Index value to 3 November 2014 is −9.3.

  23. Typhoon Nuri
    Despite a weak MJO signal, typhoon Nuri developed out of a tropical depression in the Philippine Sea on 30 October. It is one of the strongest typhoons of 2014 and is expected to move towards the northeast, away from land and continue to weaken. Typhoon Nuri is the tenth typhoon for the northwest Pacific region this year.

  24. ACC once again going to play the role for the second system movement.

    ACC forming over North Coastal AP and Ridge around 15N on 11th November, this one is pushed by our second system towards West and on 12th the ACC moves towards east central arabian sea near goa and the ridge would be at 16-17N.

    Hence the second system too has more chance to move towards North AP and Odisha coast.

  25. NE Monsoon is most challenging in itself.
    Dry air,shear,HPA, ACC,Ridge factors hindering rains(tn in priority). In spite of all these factors we are still getting rains.
    Just like that we cant achieve anything,this is one example of that.
    Nature at its best and kudos to all blog experts for throwing the reasons be it less or excess rainfall predictions.

    Past generation enjoyed with astronomical reasons/weather patterns which are true and we are analyzing those truths now.
    Way to go!Proud being a little part in this blog.

  26. Which of the following systems is going to make landfall in TN?
    a. System 1 (Ashobaa?)
    b. System 2 (Komen?)
    c. System 3 (?)
    d. None

    Correct answer : d

  27. Latest tmd forecast shows present System ll die in open water and next system which will form around this weekend will move in W-NW towards vizag landfall on 14 or 15 nov..

  28. Really happy that kea has put partha comment as featured comment. This shows that KEA has high hopes on this monsson. Great. He is turning positive finally.

  29. Rami,

    ENSO
    Nino 3.4 has increased from 0.6 to 0.7, just 0.1C away from becoming strong ELNINO conditions.
    Nino 4 of west pacific remains same at 0.9 since last 2 weeks.
    The sharp increase in SST of East Pacific(NINO 3), this is where the signs of very strong ELNINO going to emerge by winter.
    Nino 3 has increase 0.2C from 0.7 to 0.9C at the moment.

    SOI
    -9.3, Its on decreasing trend, further increasing not expected, this will not allow any system to develop in bay of bengal.

    IOD
    0.22, it is still neutral, expected the trend to continue in future too.

    Till the end of NEM ENSO and SOI has to influence the precipitation over TN.

    November – Bay cannot see any strong system since SOI is strongly NEGATIVE.

  30. I suggest we have conclusion comment in every day topic by kea based on feedback from experts. That should be taken as authorized feedback of this blog and kept as featured comment or comments.. So kea blog will not be accused of spreading wrong information to outside world. Also normal doubts and feedback can be expressed by anybody.

    • with due respect,hope you understand all kea experts comments also comes from experts feedback.,images and charts etc…too..

  31. ashobaa is at least three days behind schedule and farther than where the ‘low’ was originally thought to develop, thanks mainly to the disruptive presence of an evolving super typhoon in west Pacific. typhoon, Nuri, off the Philippines, is forecast to become a dangerous category-5 typhoon with peak winds speeding to 250 km/hr and gusting to 305 km/hr over next five days. Category-5 represents class-topping attributes on the Saffir-Simpson scale for storm intensity. Fortunately, Nuri is seen raging for the most part of its life in the vast Pacific waters only.It would track a north-northeast track away from the Philippines sparing Japan a direct hit before fading out by Thursday, global models indicated. Nuri’s destructive power will play out upstream in the North-East monsoon corridor, affecting the best-laid plans that downstream Bay may have been readying

  32. Hindu Buisness Line

    Opposing westerlies

    Fourthly, there is a raft of incoming western disturbances which blow in from the opposite direction and which could decelerate the ‘low’/depression, even stop it on its track.

    By all indications, the threat of a full-blown cyclone hovering over the east coast of India may have thus evaporated.

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a likely depression now headed towards north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coasts.

    Projections by India Met tend to take the system towards the Chennai coast and neighbourhood later during the week.

  33. It is now expected that the Bay will hum into activity after typhoon Nuri fades out over the expansive watery terrain of the Pacific.
    But Nuri would have forced a change in the location of the ‘low’ in the Bay, now expected to be much farther from the Tamil Nadu coast than earlier thought. Models are now veering down to the coordinates closer to the Sumatra Island, to the south-southwest of the Andaman Sea for the anticipated ‘low.’ This is more or less what suggesting now. Its inferred projections favour a scenario where the ‘low’ grows to become a tropical cyclone and hitting India’s east coast by the weekend so lets see .FROM HINDU BUISINESS..COMMENT..

    • Models changes their forecast .Not every day. But every minute. Following their long range forecast is waste of time. For correct forecast, we will wait till the invention of QUANTUM COMPUTER.

  34. JTWC forecast for LPA in Bay

    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8N 87.9E,
    APPROXIMATELY 565 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH
    DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE POORLY-DEFINED
    LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041548Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
    INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 041151Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK CORE
    OF WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 300NM FROM THE
    CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, JUST
    EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20
    KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

  35. IMD:
    The well marked low pressure area over 
    southeast Bay of Bengal & neighborhood
     with associated upper air cyclonic circulation
     extending upto 7.6 km  above mean sea level
     persists. The system would concentrate
     into a depression during next 24 hours

  36. For the past 2 days the weather has been pleasant it is very nice to enjoy the morning walk /run at the marina because of less sweating.we must enjoy this weather because chennai has more than 300 days of horrible weather.

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