Follow up system likely to affect TN

Early forecasts call for the follow up system to cyclone Ashoba to affect TN coast. This is around 12 days away and forecasts can change. We need to watch botht he systems closely. Ashoba too could spring a surprise with a twist or two.


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1,233 thoughts on “Follow up system likely to affect TN

  1. Radar is awesome. But wind direction is terrible. When we could get 50 mm minimum with favourable winds, we will most probably end up with zero.

  2. This year compared to land, adjoining coast would have got double the year annual rainfall. Still the wind direction is NE.

  3. If the system approaches ap coast..the cloud movement will be ne …then we can expect some rains…. At present pondy region is getting benefit continuosly…

  4. Since it (LPA) has moved more northwest above the position of madi…..the landfall place after recurving would be further north,i.e,Chennai….no need to worry about rains…it will come soon………..

  5. During SWM 100km away from chennai coast will get bounty rains. During NWM 10 km away from chennai coast will get bounty rains.

  6. Thunder storms going down the drain. Seems to be straight North South direction n not wanting to enter inland.Hard luck Pondy, Cuddalore ..

      • If it forms in SC bay, chances are minimal for it to hit TN. I am afraid, this system is all set to create a wet November for Andhra like the one they had last year in October because of WML. If that’s the case, it will affect our so called 2nd week spell.

  7. Expecting a big change in today gfs run.. all of a sudden they r bringing a ridge at mid level around east central India in last run this may restrict the system twrds north..

  8. “1st quiz is up and running now. Pls send the entries by email only. Entries cannot be posted in forum”
    Wat??? OMG!!! :O

    • i have already send my answers to kea,very nice initiative.
      It will refine our knowledge and rectify our mistakes in understanding the concepts.

  9. @Selva– Good Ridge and Sat images.I guess that the ridge is being influenced by Nuri as it tracks N/NE.We have only 2 hopes.
    1.Nuri suddenly collapses in mid sea
    2.Nuri miraculously starts tracking NW/SW

    Both are impossible.
    I am not sure whether there are other factors which will help the ridge to establish itself as west as possible.

  10. Dear Experts(PJ,Selva,Vela etc),

    Iam in learning stage of what is ridge and how it steer the cyclone.. With my understanding i maked ridges in below image. Kindly explain me how it is steered and ridges(because my understanding might be completely wrong).

    Many thanks in advance

    • Ridges r the extension of the hpa. They tends to rotate in clockwise direction. When system falls under the influence of ridge ,system moves along the rotating directional flow of the ridge

      • Many thanks for the reply selva..

        So we have 2 HPA.. One in west and other in east near burma.. Then how it is predicted to move northeast? Also my understanding in image is correct?

      • Many thanks Partha..

        Still i could understand the concept of ridge.. but i couldn’t able to locate where the ridge is the link provided.. also which level(850,700, 500 etc) to refer 😦

      • Simple..if u see a ridge in 850 hpa,then it’s surface hpa, if it is at 500,it’s mid level ridge n 200 means deep layer ridge

      • Sorry guys am disturbing u by asking too many questions.. I will learn from u guys from any kea meet in future..

      • Kudos…..what a discussion! I have been following Kea on and off…..and always had a nagging question about ridges…..great explanation Selva, Parthasri and other experts….Thanks

      • It’s not exactly Myanmar..axis is somewhere near s.east China near Hong Kong.. Ridges getting extending till Myanmar

      • Thanks selva.. But i will try to learn from u guys in detail when we have kea meet in future πŸ™‚

    • Hi Dinesh,

      Since selvan, pj and vela not available, let me try to solve.

      At what level you have taken this wind flow, 850, 700, 500 or 200HPA?

      In this pic the ACC is near Kutch of Gujarat, the outflow of ACC that is clockwise circulation running through Central MP, North AP and South Interior AP and then to South Interior KTK and back to Arabian Sea.

      The system that is anti clockwise circulation Bay has to move towards the ridge and move along the ridge which is created by ACC.

      The ridge is nothing but the central point of Dry Air and Moist Air.

      The ridge at the moment is at 17N.
      http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-277.83,7.11,920

  11. Still water storage position in Chennai reservoirs and lakes far from satisfactory, was speaking to a Metro water senior official yesterday, he says need at least 10 more days of sustained rainfall

      • Yes but if lpa intensifie it will take that direction or n/w track…seems as per conditions it will didn’t take w direction ..

      • Any reason this system much confusing to all…wait for tmrw…tmrw we got clear about this…untill we are spectators..present movie progress under postpone productions..ashoba working title…cast..hero-ashoba-other characters winds rains…

  12. gud morning guys..
    what is the condition of lpa?
    any chance of rain due to lpa?
    pls answer my question..
    pls

  13. OMG!!!! what the LPA in bay of bengal?its like side inverted ‘U’ shaped low.unable to find where exactly the LPA is.

  14. As we have been discussing,our chances for rains brighten after 12th Nov until end Nov.

    Latest MJO estimates shows BOB/NIO getting into a heightened activity between 13th Nov and 23rd Nov and remains in the NIO/BOB basins as a weakened one between 23rd Nov and 3rd Dec.

    This means
    1.Expect heavy rains between 13th and 23rd Nov..Good chances for a DD/C to come to us
    2.Expect moderate spells between 23rd Nov and 30th Nov thru easterlies/LPA
    http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo_forecast.html

    So cheer up..let Ashobaa go anywhere.Let the city enjoy some good weather.Use the good weather to run,walk,cycle etc for 1 more week and then start ramping up your RGs and other apparatus for the upcoming wet spells.

  15. DILF-1 derived from satellite picture (by kalpana 4-11-2014 01:45 AM) is indicating Ashobaa’s landfall at north of Vizag.

    Note:
    Could not able to derive any DILF from satellite picture (by kalpana 4-11-2014 00:45 AM)

    Kalpana (4-11-2014 00:45 AM): No DILF formation

    Kalpana (4-11-2014 01:45 AM): DILF-1

      • if it recurves back towards Vizag,it will be taking a steep turn.If the shear is high with other unfavourable conditions,it may just leave a mass which can descend down as easterlies.

      • looks like it will weaken completely in open water itself.

        Decrease in SOI values done lot of damage to the very good convection developed by the combination of MJO-Kelvin wave. At one time convection occupied entire BOB.

      • If our friend,Komen is a smart guy,he/she can quickly develop and make a dash to gain strength from the MJO and the remnants of Ashobaa and create history

    • I have a doubt. May be silly one.. What is the Difference between INSAT 3D and Kalpana sat Image?? Why did you prefer Kalpana sat image? Is it more detailed one?

  16. if v go by ecmwf,gfs tat ridge is extending only on 6th/7th of november so westerly movement may happen only by tat time.. hope tat happens early

  17. On a lighter note..
    Komen in Thai means “Precious Stone”.It is also termed as a “master builder”,”Strong leader” with “High Innner Strength and Strong will power” capable of “large scale undertakings”
    And very strangely the number associated with Komen is 22.

  18. The trough of low over south Andaman Sea and adjoining Tenasserim coast now lies over
    southeast Bay
    of Bengal and neighbourhood with an upper air cyclonic circulation aloft extending
    up to 3.1 km
    above mean sea level. Under its influence, a low pressure area would form oversoutheast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood during next 24 hours – IMD Morning bulletin

  19. Satellite picture shows an elongated circulation.The system has become less organised than yesterday .shear is problem here

  20. Typhoon nuri has come down in intensity and also eye wall replacement cycle is taking place.Shear along the center is low – moderate but it increases moderate-high along its path.

  21. typhoon nuri getting good outflow from the system to the north of japan.An impressive band of clouds formed to the north of nuri extending several KM and connecting mid latitude system to the north.

  22. hi all,i donno why IMD is so pessimistic.it seems CYCLONE HUDHUD recorded wind speeds of 279 KM/HR that is what vizag ship containers reported which you can find int he below deccan chronicle article.
    http://www.deccanchronicle.com/141102/nation-current-affairs/article/cyclone-hudhud-hit-279-kmph-0http://www.deccanchronicle.com/141102/nation-current-affairs/article/cyclone-hudhud-hit-279-kmph-0

    recently my father went to vizag and showed me a video.not even a tree is there and people told that rain fall is in such a way that rain is swirling in air it seems like a tornado.

  23. bit too early to say..ther is going to b another system after komen around 24th november..well tat cud be a repeat of nisha

      • yes right kea..i shld hav said 3rd system of tis november instead of the name ..i said for easy understanding

  24. I feel the japan typhn is feeding moisture to bob wlp currently, also I,m sure it will not go to burm,,or bangla, and expect to gain strength by to night.

  25. There is fog in Morning last few days. It seems no one noticed it. I think it is the reason for less rain fall in the last week. Today it is very cold till now.

  26. toi. as a trough has been persisting over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining Tenasserim coast, with an upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea-level, another trough has been hovering over the southwest of Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas %of Sri Lanka and Tamil %Nadu along with an upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to 2.1 km above mean sea-level. “Under the influence of the two troughs, an active northeast monsoon and favourable sea surface temperature conditions, the low pressure system will surely be formed in the sea on %Tuesday,” the Delhi weatherman said.
    “Under the influence of the troughs, there are chances of circulation of air in the anti-clockwise direction. If the maximum sustained wind speed in the circulation is less than 17 knots or 32 kmph, it can be called a low pressure system and if the speed ranges between 17 to 27 knots, it is called a depression,” explained M Narasimha Rao

  27. IMD:
    Under the influence of the trough of low over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood, a low pressure area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 7.6 km above mean sea level. The system would concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours.

  28. MUTED DEVELOPMENT
    This is expected to help the Bay to get its act together, claim back some flows and get them to consolidate around low-pressure area developing locally.
    India Met Department hopes that the β€˜low’ would form over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining extreme south Myanmar coast later today.This is the spot where erstwhile very severe cyclone Hudhud originated as a mature circulation and entered the Bay of Bengal proper as a tropical cyclone.
    This time round, however, there is no rapid development of intensification of the β€˜low’ expected, partly because of the draining impact of super typhoon Nuri.
    THREAT OFF?
    Global models indicate that the β€˜low’ may climb north-northwest along the Myanmar coast towards northeast Bay where it could gather some strength.The US Naval Observatory does not see the β€˜low’ intensifying as fast as expected earlier, and could reach coast quietly only as β€˜a slightly stronger’ circulation.Effectively, the threat of a full-blown cyclone hovering over the east coast may have evaporated, it suggests.According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, a weaker-than-expected weather system is headed towards north Tamil Nadu-south Andhra Pradesh coasts. – http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/super-typhoon-nuri-puts-lid-over-bay-suppresses-buildup/article6563273.ece

  29. TN daily rainfall:

    Radhapuram (Tirunelveli Dist) 6

    Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) 5

    Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist) 4 each

    Madurai south (Madurai Dist), Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist), Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist), Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist), Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist), Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist), Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist) 3 each

    Palayamkottai (Tirunelveli Dist), Kayathar arg (Toothukudi Dist), Marakkanam (Villupuram Dist), Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Vanur (Villupuram Dist), Ottapadiram (Toothukudi Dist), Vilupuram (Villupuram Dist), Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist) 2 each

    Periyar (Theni Dist), Tindivanam nicra (Villupuram Dist), Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist), Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist), Kanyakumari (Kanyakumari Dist), Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist), Vilathikulam (Toothukudi Dist), Pondicherry (Puducherry Dist), Cuddalore (Cuddalore Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), Kodavasal (Tiruvarur
    Dist), Gingee (Villupuram Dist), Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam Dist), Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist), Thiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur Dist), Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist), Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist), Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar Dist), Srimushnam (Cuddalore Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Trangambadi(or)tranqueb (Nagapattinam Dist)
    1 each.

  30. Guys..I’m goin to start the build-up and tracking for Nov 24th Super Cyclone “Chapala” that is expected to hit Mahabs..anybody willing to join? (PS: It is mandatory for all the Partners Group members to join) πŸ˜€

  31. When it comes to weather forecasting, Mathematics is one key subject that is very much used for understanding the real world phenomena in a way that we can understand and interpret. But, with the knowledge and observation mankind has at present, it still seems to be a challenging task to understand the force and erratic move of nature , especially within the Troposphere.Hardly , a 20 km altitude blanket of Troposphere, still proves to be a difficult task to predict. Humans have indeed conquered space beyond the atmosphere well to great heights , and have success rates much higher in the recent. All this success can be mainly attributed to one thing that the laws from Physics, are well seemed to be observed well into that space. Objects set into action inside space continue in that way unless it is obstructed by any other object. We are even able to see possible asteroids or any other events like the eclipses, much in advance with greater accuracy.

    Weather, which very much happens inside the Troposphere, continues to puzzle humankind. Of course Mathematics, is still the major contributor here in Meteorology. One important part of Mathematics, Calculus which very much decides and describes the instantaneous rates of change of variables with respect to one another. This would be easy when variables are related in some direct manner, and form functions that are easy to describe and analyses graphically and numerically. But here in our subject, one factor may not depend on a finite number of factors , for example , let us consider our very favorite, vertical wind shear, which very much decides on the survival of Cyclones , is dependent on many factors…The main reason for the VWS causing cyclones to collapse is the latent heat not getting concentrated within the region of influence, and getting blown way and diluted by the strong winds ….This rise of wind shear might be due to strong outflows of surrounding weather systems, which intern would have developed due to energy transition from equatorial trapped waves into the boundary layer, which again might be related to the intensity of solar insolation influencing one part of the atmosphere, which in tern may be also due to continually varying local factors . When we look into this complexity just at words , we may go mad. But just think of these complexities that needs to considered as functions of functions , complex calculations in calculus.
    The extreme dynamics has to be considered, which has too many interconnections, which are carefully given as input equations , construction of which needs too many considerations . Modelling of weather, which works on such a close approximation of these factors , is a great boon to modern day forecasting .

    Input factors have to be identified, and proper equations need to analysed and errors and approximations have to be dealt carefully and so many countless steps go into weather modelling

    “HATS OFF ” to people working in these model constructions ……..

    • I am very weak in Maths and Stats…
      It is good explanation Mr. Gokul.
      Weather can be predicted if we understand the calculations and logics.
      Rami the one who does with excellent samples, it is very tough for me to understand the same.

    • I recall Ammet exactly talking the same language..if youngsters like Susa can combine Maths and Physics with Modeling approach ( bring in Engg subjects like Thermodynamics),we could decode the patterns to some extent..I repeat “to some extent”..Nature goes beyond variables

      • Yes Mitan, weather is full of equations , this was even said by Dr. Ramanan to us , when we met him…

      • Gokul we can calculate the drop in pressure in a cyclone if we can have some certain parameters like gas density,absolute pressure,temperature…i think for them its not quite difficult as they have certain parameter measuring device through which they can measure it and put it in formula and some complex equations and then analysis it

      • Mitan weather is too complex .Its not easy to forecast .There are many local factors which influences it.

      • Mitan , yes it is always beneficial to have the availability of real ground data .
        But , when it comes to forecasting, time factor is the most crucial one , in case of Cyclones that is the most important one. We may get a lot of raw data, but what do we do with those data is what challenges these models to run mad. If u consider that pressure drop, and the associated intensity changes, there would arise so many questions on how that pressure drop came into existence, for that u may need to dig out the possible factors , and u may also need to check how long would that continue to influence ….
        So, accuracy in a short period of time , that is the most challenging task….

      • Developing that equations is difficult.For developing that equations they have to study about the various parameters which affects the weather.There are many parameters which are unknown so these things cause error in the forecast.And also all the air patterns are interconnected similar to economy happening in another basin can causes changes to our basin.So studying those complex relationship is very difficult.

      • Yup vinod u r right but also technogy are highly developed now and if u see nowadays forecasters are bang on target when it comes to forecast the landfall of location.and offcource many miles to walk for technology

    • yes ,v r just seeing the 1% of modelling as output as a picture. lot of maths with diff,calculus with initial valuesfinal values and physics with energy trasnfer equations,thermodynamics and still goes on.. one word “most complex ” is the appropriate word with lots of assumption work..

    • Yes Gokul. Technology has improved a lot. Without these models and the people working there we cant even imagine the impact in coastal areas during Cyclones. Due to this development, we are now able to save the lives of people during Cyclones and make plan according to these forecasts by Models.

    • Wait wait wait…need to read at least 5 times for me to grasp few sentences…GTS..really wonderful..I know , given a opportunity, you would like to share all your thoughts which keeps striking you at lightning speed..In the days to come, i am expecting a post from you where without any inhibitions you would bring out all the thoughts that keeps you busy all day along..Needless to say , your thoughts on weather and an attempt to study cyclonic systems and the factors involved in it..Kudos and hats off to you..Break the barrier and express yourself in the only way you can..

    • HATS OFF to you too Gts, you really are a weather whiz, bringing out all these awesome facts and info πŸ™‚ I need to learn a lot about the mathematical and analytical side of weather forecasting from you one day

  32. Monsoon to gain strength in two days, says Met department (In kerala)

    “Low pressure depressions often occur with the Northeast monsoon. First it was the HudHud cyclone in Bay of Bengal followed by the Nilofer in Arabian Sea. There will be a couple of more such depressions and the monsoon could gain ground and there would be rain for the next couple of weeks,” said senior atmospheric scientist P V Joseph.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kochi/Monsoon-to-gain-strength-in-two-days-says-Met-department/articleshow/45030995.cms

  33. lol. going one step ahead.. komen genesis is already happening in s.china sea below ho chi minh city

    formation probablity

  34. Flash News,

    LPA likely to intensify into a Depression as Associated Cyclonic Circulation is intact with the system.
    IMD MID Day

    Under the influence of the trough of low over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood, a low pressure area
    has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto
    7.6 km above mean sea level. The system would concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours.

  35. @Pradeep Madurai has mentioned today that Kerala Met has forecasted the NEM will strengthen in their state.

    Why it will strengthen in Kerala and not in TN till 09th or 10th.

    The reason behind is:

    Near Lakshdweep there is a trough formed and a east-west shear zone formed at 10N and 1.5KM above MSL.
    the wind from NE touching the island and then returning back to south kerala as a NW winds.
    due to this revolving of wind, a moisture is created around the south coast of Kerala and it will produce heavy rain for next few days.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-276.08,17.42,1395

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