just travelled up to R A puram and came back could see lot of rains everywhere one bad thing the poor road conditions expecting good rains today in the making
Vino, Good Morning..Where do you expect the system to take shape-SW bay or the Andaman side?
currently SW bay circulation is improving. i will go for SW bay.
That’s good news for us…
Not necessarily. if the system moves in north -NE as expected and it consolidates then rains will be well away from coast but till it consolidates bands of rain might move towards chennai.
good morning.BBC(UKMET) is the one which performed really well wrt current system.
But BBC says the system moving North east after forming off the T.N Coast
yes.its expected to move NE.
what is the reason it is moving away North east? any Western Disturbance?
There is a high pressure over gulf of thailand which is steering the system and even that high is not strong.It remains in between gulf of thailand high and arabian high to the west.Steering winds remains weak.
That means still near tn
if it moves in NE direction the movement will be slow.
NE direction movement will take system away from TN but the steering to NE remains weak which means movement will be slow or it may wobble.
Did they not change the track of the SW system almost coming close to our region and moving further east towards Burma?
i think it will stay well away from TN coast and move NE.Only if the Steering pattern changes we have hope.
Chennai ripped by heavy rains almost for 20 minutes, Meanwhile Nagai District declared holiday for schools only
Good news,
Till Thursday SOI doesn’t increase (according to arctic forum). So forget about strong Ashobaa. It may be very weaker cyclone for no one’s sake.
In the mean time TN and SL will experience good rainfall.
nagai,tiruvarur holidays for school due to heavy rain..
now,
chennai recieving heavy rain…
adyar etc very heavy rain in news…
hope so next chennai too declare holiday..
school holiday for 4 mm? LOL
no..heavy rains lashed many parts..
here too hust 20mm or more
With this amount of rain can we overcome the coming summer water crisis
We will get some isolated showers from this system. After that things will clear up. Next rains only after a weeks gap
Nature is in repetitive mood over tropical regions of BOB & Pacific oceans (both east & west).
We can compare the present scenario of Nuri (west pacific)/Hurricane Vance (east pacific)/Ashobaa (yet to form over BOB) with October 1/2 weeks Vongfong (west pacific)/Hurricane Simon (east pacific)/Hudhud (BOB) with respect to timing, intensity and track.
Only difference is that present tropical systems are maintaining little N/NE track to October’s systems. So BOB’s Ashobaa will also be having slight northerly track than Hudhud.
Conclusion: Ashobaa (Hudhud-2) will make landfall over Orissa (northerly than Hudhud). But intensity varies.
it should be above average as next named “cyclone komen” will directly crosses TN.
Any rainfall figures like 30 cms for Oct ?
actually I don’t have any idea about average rainfalls for TN monthly wise. I think from kea-database we can know 🙂
There is a link in Kea.metsite
I think under others. KAR maintains it
Are you sure this week’s system will intensify into a Cyclone
looks like weak cyclone as most of the steam condensing over TN. Moreover SOI value not going to increase till Thursday (by GFS according to arctic forum). So intensification will be delayed.
after intensification It will try to travel towards Orissa. But not sure abt definite landfall. Definite landfall depends on MJO & SOI coordination.
About 400 mm. Average rain days for November is 12 days.
Good morning folks. By the looks of things panning out in bay, we are in for the next dry spell for about 10 odd days. We already had 8 day lull because of Nilofar. Total dry days count this monsoon may reach 18 days. For a monsoon which lasts for 50 days, 18 days is too much. Can’t help it though because our NEM is as erratic as it gets. Let’s hope that second week of November turns up well.
Just 5 days of heavy rain won’t help. All of them would have gone to drain already. For me bigger picture is, “how Chennai and TN withstand till next monsoon?” What we need is deserving rains in November as its our prime rainy month as like July-august for SWM. If we fail to get our quota now, can’t expect too much in December. We all know that.
After the school van came, the driver asked to chk if any msg has come. Recvd a msg from school that classes 1 to 8 closed on acct of inclement weather. Vel vidhyashram, pallavaram
OMG..Susa u did not see nature-model about Ashobaa’s Orissa landfall. Have a glance at it.
Earlier comment of the today:
Nature is in repetitive mood over tropical regions of BOB & Pacific oceans (both east & west).
We can compare the present scenario of Nuri (west pacific)/Hurricane Vance (east pacific)/Ashobaa (yet to form over BOB) with October 1/2 weeks Vongfong (west pacific)/Hurricane Simon (east pacific)/Hudhud (BOB) with respect to timing, intensity and track.
Only difference is that present tropical systems are maintaining little N/NE track to October’s systems. So BOB’s Ashobaa will also be having slight northerly track than Hudhud.
Conclusion: Ashobaa (Hudhud-2) will make landfall over Orissa (northerly than Hudhud). But intensity varies.
KeaWeather Archives 
First to comment…. Do we have a change in the status in the coming days?
This year we have opened NEM with a bang. Hope the trend continues…
Yes, This is not a Good Heading
Dry air would dominate during the coming week. So the chances of rain would dwindle.
lets wait till tuesday for better clarity on the models and expected area of landfall.
Early morning treat for chennai is waiting
No,all TS are losing strength as it near coast
guys lets enjoy our rain come on wake up
Can’t you see?,every red spot just vanishes as it nears bermuda circle
lets wait and see nice if we have good rain on monday morg
no surely we will have good 1 or 2 spell with good intensity lets think positive
lot of red spots on the radar close to chennai.. more rains near pondy too
OMG…complete BOB under Ashobaa’s fire!!
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
hi chandra ji does my area tpk will also get some share in it pls let me know
Looking at the radar triplicane is sure to get rains
Big rains on cards fot chennai….expect flooding..keep catamarans ready for outings..
Chengelpet to Pondy are going to get battered
New storms may pop up and flank towards chennai
Pounding here in Central…
I should record the sound 😉 its Fantastic in central railway station….
Heavy drizzle in pursai
Normal NEM wind pattern started.. Expect heavy rains to coastal region….north interior TN have to wait for wind to enter into south andhra…
In radar heavy rains seen SE of Chennai….. From where heavy rains would come in Chennai from SE or NE
at present it is NE to SW
Thanks means that red balls SE of Chennai will reach Chennai ah?? ….
no,it is going down
Heavy rains here easily 2cm from this spell. NEM rocks
athu spell pa.. not smell
The Big TS is coming toward us or moving away…..?
some bloggers attitude has become negative, saying as if everything is going to come to an end in this nem
just travelled up to R A puram and came back could see lot of rains everywhere one bad thing the poor road conditions expecting good rains today in the making
I think no decrease in rainfall will happen. We are going to njoy this weather all today n it will continue
All bloggers please be +ve. Experts says their forecast. But we have to maintain our attitude. Everything can change. This time chennai will rock.
Pondy Cuddalore stretch is getting heavy rains
Super typhoon Nuri 155 knots.The system is yet to enter high shear area .currently shear is low to moderate.
can it break haiyan record?
though winds are 155 knots. Haiyan satellite presentation looked phenomenal.NURI is not impressive as haiyan
155 knots!!!???
yes winds have reached 155 knots
around 285 kmph
Keep staying positive we will get cyclone models will change in our favour
From current picture looks, it shows slight weakening of nuri.
No eyewall replacment as of now visible from SSMI
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_20W/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html
The pull in the south east bay has weakened. Lots of clouds are now developing in south west bay and close to Chennai.
Looks like SW bay low is taking shape.
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Are u serious
yes, SW bay circulation looks better now but the system is expected to move in north-NE direction thats the problem.
Looking at winter cool surface water and dry air won’t this circulation not hit orissa
its expected to get steered by the high pressure near gulf of thailand.
Monsterous TS in ECR whole N.coastal tamilnadu getting rain except chennai.
Winds are from NE.
vorticity has reduced in south east bay compared to yesterday and it has increased in SW bay
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
vertical wind shear has started to decrease for the entire south bay
What does this mean
As conditions are improving system will start to intenisfy.
Vino, Good Morning..Where do you expect the system to take shape-SW bay or the Andaman side?
currently SW bay circulation is improving. i will go for SW bay.
That’s good news for us…
Not necessarily. if the system moves in north -NE as expected and it consolidates then rains will be well away from coast but till it consolidates bands of rain might move towards chennai.
good morning.BBC(UKMET) is the one which performed really well wrt current system.
But BBC says the system moving North east after forming off the T.N Coast
yes.its expected to move NE.
what is the reason it is moving away North east? any Western Disturbance?
There is a high pressure over gulf of thailand which is steering the system and even that high is not strong.It remains in between gulf of thailand high and arabian high to the west.Steering winds remains weak.
That means still near tn
if it moves in NE direction the movement will be slow.
NE direction movement will take system away from TN but the steering to NE remains weak which means movement will be slow or it may wobble.
Did they not change the track of the SW system almost coming close to our region and moving further east towards Burma?
i think it will stay well away from TN coast and move NE.Only if the Steering pattern changes we have hope.
Chennai ripped by heavy rains almost for 20 minutes, Meanwhile Nagai District declared holiday for schools only
Looks like all anti tamilnadu models may be proved wrong
Good news,
Till Thursday SOI doesn’t increase (according to arctic forum). So forget about strong Ashobaa. It may be very weaker cyclone for no one’s sake.
In the mean time TN and SL will experience good rainfall.
Rsrao sir I herd low is forming
definitely over Central BOB by 4th.
Whatever forms it won’t impact chennai
yes, TN will be getting rains in different styles.
Won’t vorticity, vertical wind sheer, dry air, sea surface waters impact north east movement
SW bay seems to develope keep hope guys
Nice rain for half an hour at Pursawakkam by 5.15am
Chennai goung to get heavy to very heavy rainfall
How Paul
What Paul how very heavy
when?
Whole kachi in for battering so leave possible for kanchipuram
Tree Fallen down on Santhome – affecting Traffic – SUn news
Actually 2 votices are developing and later will be merged to one LPA. For this reason lot of confusion.
I think its better to stay away from the forecasting for a while till complete scenario merges out 🙂
Sir thank you
Nagai & Tiruvarur declared holiday today for schools
vinod,
any dry air problem for Nuri as its cloud pattern doesn’t look good?
Vinodh mentioned to me tht high pressure over Thailand is nt strong to steer bay system
for nuri?
No he spk on bay of bengal
ok
For newry its in low sheer
its moving into marginal upper atmospheric conditions that could be the problem
OK
OMG!!!!
Looks at the radar ts is severe at se and it will move ne so weget heavy rain
Yes its moving north east…
if its moving North east then it wll move away from the coast and hence rains will stop
Sorry north west….but slightly towards south andhra..
Much of the rains are bit interior..
Plus low in sw bay plus gulf of Thailand high pressure not steering our bay system in its proposed track
nagai,tiruvarus mavattam palligaluku vidumurain…
chennayil palatha malai…
they are telling step step by in few minutes they will put Chennai also…
what is that?
nagai,tiruvarur holidays for school due to heavy rain..
now,
chennai recieving heavy rain…
adyar etc very heavy rain in news…
hope so next chennai too declare holiday..
school holiday for 4 mm? LOL
no..heavy rains lashed many parts..
here too hust 20mm or more
but adyar have got so they my declare holiday.
20 is not considered heavy
in myarea that is..many areas got more than that
Paul The Holy Day Man
even Paul is ready for school
me too
Iam in turucorin
So automatic bunking
topic is opposite 2 our rains
Every action has equal and opposite reaction
newtons third law of motion?
more ts are forming in the radar….
any reason
actually the topic was that the rain would decrease>?
That did the trick 🙂
Did you notice, Kea has mentioned isolated TS cannot be ruled out..So we are getting those..
isolated shower..
Thundering here
So holiday possible
LOL, now holiday for thunder too?
Lets wat will reach first . Cuddalore band or ts in sea band ah
Why is everything going south of us
Because our rains over
With this amount of rain can we overcome the coming summer water crisis
We will get some isolated showers from this system. After that things will clear up. Next rains only after a weeks gap
Nature is in repetitive mood over tropical regions of BOB & Pacific oceans (both east & west).
We can compare the present scenario of Nuri (west pacific)/Hurricane Vance (east pacific)/Ashobaa (yet to form over BOB) with October 1/2 weeks Vongfong (west pacific)/Hurricane Simon (east pacific)/Hudhud (BOB) with respect to timing, intensity and track.
Only difference is that present tropical systems are maintaining little N/NE track to October’s systems. So BOB’s Ashobaa will also be having slight northerly track than Hudhud.
Conclusion: Ashobaa (Hudhud-2) will make landfall over Orissa (northerly than Hudhud). But intensity varies.
west pacific typhoons:
(1) super typhoon Vongfong (October 2-14, 2014)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season#mediaviewer/File:Vongfong_2014_track.png
(2) present super typhoon Nuri: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=20W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
East pacific hurricanes
(1) cat.4 Simon (October 1-8, 2014): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_hurricane_season#mediaviewer/File:Simon_2014_track.png
(2) present cat.2 Vance:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=eastpac&sname=21E&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
BOB-cyclones:
(1) cat.4 huhud (October 7-14)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#mediaviewer/File:Hudhud_2014_track.png
(2) Present Ashobaa (in the making): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
U still maintain odisha
yes, but as a weak cyclone.
Gr8 let’s hope models support ur brilliant views
Sat image shows entire n.tn covered under clouds.Hope chennai also will get it’s share
Wind shear in Andaman sea luks super cool.. decreasing in most parts
Low in saw bay
Year going down in sw bay too
Wats the point of just hosting. Nothing favourable for us
Even cuddalore band will reach us
It’s all moving south east Paul
Radar animation shows clouds are moving North west.
raining with heavy intensity
Location ?
royapuram
where?
Cuddalore, Tiruvaur Distrcts joins Nagai in declaring holiday for schools
U r late.
Kanchipuram may follow
what? Then chennai also…..
No chance
If it is a holiday in Kanchipuram…then it is a holiday in Chennai and Thiruvallur
thnajavur also
Very Dark Here with thunders but no rain 😦
u wil get a short spell vry soon rain bands r approaching
In another 5 min the bell rings in the school next to my home
5 districts holiday declared ..
first two.. then one by one..
Time has run out for chennai
last time one time thay declared at 7 45 or so… ha ha
Yep….
Most of the school buses would have started now. and when ever it is a holiday we will get bright sun shine. better to have school and rains coming
YOu mean Asan Memorial
Yes
Villupuram declared holiday!
New strms forming closer
What use in formation…no holiday….
we want rains and not holiday
Thundering here
which place?
Nanganallur
Hvy rain on the way
is it raining heavily? which place?
Raining now.
Not yet in southern suberbs
Possible convergence near the coast
Band coming band coiming
U didn’t go to school?
not yet
Yes
Susa low pressure in sw bob
whether cyclones crosses TN or not, NEM rains rock TN this yr. NEM-2014 is very special yr different from 2012 & 2013
what is the monthly average for November sir?
it should be above average as next named “cyclone komen” will directly crosses TN.
Any rainfall figures like 30 cms for Oct ?
actually I don’t have any idea about average rainfalls for TN monthly wise. I think from kea-database we can know 🙂
There is a link in Kea.metsite
I think under others. KAR maintains it
Are you sure this week’s system will intensify into a Cyclone
looks like weak cyclone as most of the steam condensing over TN. Moreover SOI value not going to increase till Thursday (by GFS according to arctic forum). So intensification will be delayed.
after intensification It will try to travel towards Orissa. But not sure abt definite landfall. Definite landfall depends on MJO & SOI coordination.
About 400 mm. Average rain days for November is 12 days.
Chennai will declare holiday soon
U are in vacation Paul in this time 😛
School already started
no…
Massive elongated circulation in SC BOB!
So rains for us,right?
That’s the reason for the rains yea
What it means
A huge circulation in south central BOB
Benefit yaruku
Good steady drizzle in pursai
Hvy rain started in adyar
sholinganallur – Heavy rain started
Pouring in kea station
2 mm lol
Good morning folks. By the looks of things panning out in bay, we are in for the next dry spell for about 10 odd days. We already had 8 day lull because of Nilofar. Total dry days count this monsoon may reach 18 days. For a monsoon which lasts for 50 days, 18 days is too much. Can’t help it though because our NEM is as erratic as it gets. Let’s hope that second week of November turns up well.
See the bigger picture. We are excess
Just 5 days of heavy rain won’t help. All of them would have gone to drain already. For me bigger picture is, “how Chennai and TN withstand till next monsoon?” What we need is deserving rains in November as its our prime rainy month as like July-august for SWM. If we fail to get our quota now, can’t expect too much in December. We all know that.
SW bay circulation is there
here not yet started ..and not so dark…
Last n final chance for Chennai as heavy rains approaches
here nothing..y?
Its raining here….
It will reach your area in a min Deepak
After the school van came, the driver asked to chk if any msg has come. Recvd a msg from school that classes 1 to 8 closed on acct of inclement weather. Vel vidhyashram, pallavaram
ohh
U have school. Get ready and go
ss
Chennai welcomes me back with sharp shower at mambalam..
ECMWF showing Orissa landfall.
Again no clear cut model
When the brown color radar will come near Chennai. Since 6AM it is in 50 km away
Pouring in Sholinganallur
rain started bit heavire at kk nagar too..
It reached u in a min :p
Ashooba is the Nilofar in east seaboard of india.
Huge and useless for rains.
Let it form firsr
This is the time to announce holiday
s..one time that annunced after i went 2 school..
Please god give us holiday….
ss
Now I agree
No news is coming
pouring down
here now light drizzles..
very bad luck..
I can’t believe it.. ECMFW and UKMO were just spot on regarding SE BOB vortex weakening..
Not surprising. But bands are re-orienting towards Central BOB.
thundering here too..
OMG..Susa u did not see nature-model about Ashobaa’s Orissa landfall. Have a glance at it.
Earlier comment of the today:
Nature is in repetitive mood over tropical regions of BOB & Pacific oceans (both east & west).
We can compare the present scenario of Nuri (west pacific)/Hurricane Vance (east pacific)/Ashobaa (yet to form over BOB) with October 1/2 weeks Vongfong (west pacific)/Hurricane Simon (east pacific)/Hudhud (BOB) with respect to timing, intensity and track.
Only difference is that present tropical systems are maintaining little N/NE track to October’s systems. So BOB’s Ashobaa will also be having slight northerly track than Hudhud.
Conclusion: Ashobaa (Hudhud-2) will make landfall over Orissa (northerly than Hudhud). But intensity varies.
west pacific typhoons:
(1) super typhoon Vongfong (October 2-14, 2014)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season#mediaviewer/File:Vongfong_2014_track.png
(2) present super typhoon Nuri: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=20W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
East pacific hurricanes
(1) cat.4 Simon (October 1-8, 2014): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_hurricane_season#mediaviewer/File:Simon_2014_track.png
(2) present cat.2 Vance:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=eastpac&sname=21E&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
BOB-cyclones:
(1) cat.4 huhud (October 7-14)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#mediaviewer/File:Hudhud_2014_track.png
(2) Present Ashobaa (in the making): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
Super second spell of the day at Pursawakkam. Big drops and intense rain.
Yesterday somebdy said system will be hit sriharikota..what about that friends??
Pouring here
Y still no holiday
Just pouring, pouring and pounding. what a start for the day
Pouring here in Perumbakkam
here nothing..
Selva we were spot on the heavy today. Sadly it went south of us.
Bermuda triangle came to picture
I hope all these predictions dont become true and we get a strong low near T.N.. I am already losing patience 😦
PJ its not over yet. More stroms are forming
Here on and off heavy rains with thunder, absolutely dark over here
Rain stopped at sholinganallur.
y no heavy rain at kk nagar??????