1,351 thoughts on “Decrease in rainfall expected

  1. Normal NEM wind pattern started.. Expect heavy rains to coastal region….north interior TN have to wait for wind to enter into south andhra…

  2. just travelled up to R A puram and came back could see lot of rains everywhere one bad thing the poor road conditions expecting good rains today in the making

  3. All bloggers please be +ve. Experts says their forecast. But we have to maintain our attitude. Everything can change. This time chennai will rock.

  4. Super typhoon Nuri 155 knots.The system is yet to enter high shear area .currently shear is low to moderate.
    can it break haiyan record?

  5. Good news,
    Till Thursday SOI doesn’t increase (according to arctic forum). So forget about strong Ashobaa. It may be very weaker cyclone for no one’s sake.

    In the mean time TN and SL will experience good rainfall.

  6. Actually 2 votices are developing and later will be merged to one LPA. For this reason lot of confusion.

    I think its better to stay away from the forecasting for a while till complete scenario merges out 🙂

  7. nagai,tiruvarus mavattam palligaluku vidumurain…
    chennayil palatha malai…
    they are telling step step by in few minutes they will put Chennai also…

  8. Nature is in repetitive mood over tropical regions of BOB & Pacific oceans (both east & west).

    We can compare the present scenario of Nuri (west pacific)/Hurricane Vance (east pacific)/Ashobaa (yet to form over BOB) with October 1/2 weeks Vongfong (west pacific)/Hurricane Simon (east pacific)/Hudhud (BOB) with respect to timing, intensity and track.

    Only difference is that present tropical systems are maintaining little N/NE track to October’s systems. So BOB’s Ashobaa will also be having slight northerly track than Hudhud.

    Conclusion: Ashobaa (Hudhud-2) will make landfall over Orissa (northerly than Hudhud). But intensity varies.

    west pacific typhoons:
    (1) super typhoon Vongfong (October 2-14, 2014)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season#mediaviewer/File:Vongfong_2014_track.png
    (2) present super typhoon Nuri: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=20W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

    East pacific hurricanes
    (1) cat.4 Simon (October 1-8, 2014): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_hurricane_season#mediaviewer/File:Simon_2014_track.png
    (2) present cat.2 Vance:
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=eastpac&sname=21E&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

    BOB-cyclones:
    (1) cat.4 huhud (October 7-14)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#mediaviewer/File:Hudhud_2014_track.png
    (2) Present Ashobaa (in the making): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=

      • actually I don’t have any idea about average rainfalls for TN monthly wise. I think from kea-database we can know 🙂

      • looks like weak cyclone as most of the steam condensing over TN. Moreover SOI value not going to increase till Thursday (by GFS according to arctic forum). So intensification will be delayed.

        after intensification It will try to travel towards Orissa. But not sure abt definite landfall. Definite landfall depends on MJO & SOI coordination.

  9. Good morning folks. By the looks of things panning out in bay, we are in for the next dry spell for about 10 odd days. We already had 8 day lull because of Nilofar. Total dry days count this monsoon may reach 18 days. For a monsoon which lasts for 50 days, 18 days is too much. Can’t help it though because our NEM is as erratic as it gets. Let’s hope that second week of November turns up well.

      • Just 5 days of heavy rain won’t help. All of them would have gone to drain already. For me bigger picture is, “how Chennai and TN withstand till next monsoon?” What we need is deserving rains in November as its our prime rainy month as like July-august for SWM. If we fail to get our quota now, can’t expect too much in December. We all know that.

  10. After the school van came, the driver asked to chk if any msg has come. Recvd a msg from school that classes 1 to 8 closed on acct of inclement weather. Vel vidhyashram, pallavaram

  11. OMG..Susa u did not see nature-model about Ashobaa’s Orissa landfall. Have a glance at it.

    Earlier comment of the today:
    Nature is in repetitive mood over tropical regions of BOB & Pacific oceans (both east & west).

    We can compare the present scenario of Nuri (west pacific)/Hurricane Vance (east pacific)/Ashobaa (yet to form over BOB) with October 1/2 weeks Vongfong (west pacific)/Hurricane Simon (east pacific)/Hudhud (BOB) with respect to timing, intensity and track.

    Only difference is that present tropical systems are maintaining little N/NE track to October’s systems. So BOB’s Ashobaa will also be having slight northerly track than Hudhud.

    Conclusion: Ashobaa (Hudhud-2) will make landfall over Orissa (northerly than Hudhud). But intensity varies.

    west pacific typhoons:
    (1) super typhoon Vongfong (October 2-14, 2014)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season#mediaviewer/File:Vongfong_2014_track.png
    (2) present super typhoon Nuri: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=20W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

    East pacific hurricanes
    (1) cat.4 Simon (October 1-8, 2014): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_hurricane_season#mediaviewer/File:Simon_2014_track.png
    (2) present cat.2 Vance:
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=eastpac&sname=21E&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

    BOB-cyclones:
    (1) cat.4 huhud (October 7-14)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#mediaviewer/File:Hudhud_2014_track.png
    (2) Present Ashobaa (in the making): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=

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