490 thoughts on “Chance of early morning shower

  1. UAC rains in Tamil Nadu for 6th straight day and Mettur inflow increases to over 34000 cusecs, ending 8.30 am on 27.09.2014
    ====================================================
    The cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood now lies over Comorin – Lakshadweep areas and extends upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. Kanyakumari, Dindugul, Coimbatore and Nilgiris get heavy rains.

    in mm (min 5 mm)

    Adyamadai – 81
    Thiruparappu – 78
    Kodaikanal – 72
    Valparai Taluk Office – 65
    Kodaikanal Boat Club – 61

    For detailed list visit http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=270

  2. @NOVAKNOLE.
    Yes Showers will continue more TS over SE.
    Its intense rain now.
    Nice to see this the Power of Easterlies.

  3. Have a feeling that (NEM onset)rains will set in early , say between October 8th and 15th though any rain from October 1st is termed as NEM rains. There has some good chill breeze blowing from the east last few days in the evenings.

  4. 2nd day of heavy rains in Kerala, ending 8.30 am on 28.09.2014
    ===================================
    The cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. over Comorin – Lakshadweep areas persists.

    in mm (min 20 mm)

    Kuttiyadi – 152
    Kochi CIAL – 92
    Perumbavur – 76
    Kodungallur – 71
    Chalakudy – 67

    For detailed list visit – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=271

    • Pradeep, nice way to do it this way. Bloggers get to know about your post on rainfall data. Those interested can view the page. Thanks.

  5. Chandra there is no easterlies……Its due to UAC near Lakswadeep we are getting wind as easterlies. By next week the wind from east will be gone.

  6. The LPA is showing better organization compared to yesterday, but it is still very bad. There is very disorganized outflow and it is moving into areas of higher shear which will hinder chances of development

  7. Same weather like last 2 days.
    Big bunch of dark towering cumulus clouds around and some localised TS expected in next 1 hour.

  8. Boom! GFS predicts onset of easterlies by 12th with an easterly wave entering our Andaman Sea. We could possibly be in for an early onset as Novak says. What’s even better, is that MJO positive phase is expected to move away by the time NEM sets in which could allow the easterly waves to develop vortices and troughs. However if the wave becomes stronger and moves north, we’d have to wait.. But easterlies would have set in by that time

  9. Looks like a calm day over TN except for some stray areas.Tmrw evening could see a few showers over South TN.The circulation in the Arabian sea is gathering strength and moving towards Oman in the next few days

  10. IMD Update …
    ♦ Yesterday, the southwest monsoon was further withdrawn from remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and East Rajasthan; some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Saurashtra; most parts of West Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Gujarat region, Kutch and north Arabian sea.

    ♦ The withdrawal line of southwest monsoon continues to pass through Jammu, Una, Bareilly, Kanpur, Nowgong, Ujjain, Vadodara, Porbandar, Lat.22°N/Long.65°E and Lat.22°N/Long.60°E.

  11. No Demand for Clouds As long as Easterlies stay.
    Only Demand for Widespread TS though its possible in NEM when the same Easterlies there.
    Super Lovable Sights of Clouds.Very happy to see this much of Clouds.
    Looking like
    “SINGARA CHENNAI” is “MUGHIL NAGARAM”.

  12. Astronomers have detected water vapour in the atmosphere of a planet that orbits a star far beyond our solar system. Observations of the Neptune-sized planet, which lies 120 light years from Earth in the constellation of Cygnus, revealed that its atmosphere was mostly hydrogen with around 25 per cent made up from water vapour. Until now, researchers have been frustrated in their efforts to study the atmospheres of planets much smaller than Jupiter because their skies were thick with clouds. The problem was so persistent that astronomers had begun to think that all warm, small planets formed with substantial cloud cover. http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=39&p=10832#p10832

  13. Guys. This is the most hilarious thing I’ve ever seen
    Maximum temp – 23.4
    Minimum temp – 23.8
    Madurai
    How on earth can maximum temp be lower than minimum temp

  14. A steady increase in the flow into the Mettur dam in the last two days has brought cheer to farmers and officials. With good rains in the Cauvery catchments in Karnataka in the few days past, the dam has been getting more water since Saturday. The inflow, which stood at 6,852 cusecs on September 25, rose to 34,661 cusecs on Sunday. The level was 91.07 feet against the full reservoir level of 120 feet. About 18,600 cusecs was being discharged, sources in the Public Works Department said.

    As there was no rainfall in the catchments and because of the poor storage level, water release for the Kuruvai crop season in the Cauvery Delta region was delayed by two months this year.

  15. Demonstration of direct sowing of paddy on a one-acre farm in Mayilampadi Panchayat in Bhavani Taluk earlier this year by the Agriculture Department has delivered the desired outcome.

    Direct sowing in the current cultivation season has been taken up by farmers in Bhavani in 50 acres, Assistant Director of Agriculture, Bhavani, A. Nachimuthu, said.

    The trial was undertaken on the demonstration plot of a farmer with incentive of Rs. 4,000 provided through Agriculture Technology Management Agency. The cultivator Meganathan spent Rs. 15,000 per acre and harvested 7,500 kg of paddy that reflected a 30 per cent rise in productivity. Unlike the transplantation method that requires 20 kg seeds, the requirement for
    direct sowing was only three kilograms, and the water requirement is also lower. There is substantial savings since the labour is lesser, official sources added.

  16. GFS has now revised its landfall for 15th Oct system to TN.
    BTW this has been revised 2 times over the last 2 weeks.

    Initially it was Orissa and then it was North AP and now its TN.
    Guys,its all happening.

    Now we can expect CFS to slowly revise the end Oct system to come to us ( although they have been magnanimous to bring the early Nov system to our doorstep)

    As said earlier..its Mild Elnino + Neutral IOD + High SST..models will adapt slowly

      • I saw the last day of the model run showing a clear westward movement of the system all the way from the Andaman islands, although we ll have to wait, as it s in the low resolution part of the run …..

      • Yes Susa, did u check for the HP areas at 500 mb and 250 mb layers and even at surface levels all have come down , and now very close to 15 N (app.), clear precursors for convective activities getting down to lower latitudes …..

      • Yep, nice observation. ACC is also strengthening in north india and recently there has been a lot of convective activity throughout ITCZ, however lack of moisture is not allowing the storms to develop.

  17. IMD Rainfall Update im mm

    Karur Paramathi – 55
    Coonoor – 38.1
    Thoothukudi – 37.9
    Kodaikanal – 33
    Palayamkottai – 31
    Tirupathur – 30
    Valparai – 20.6
    Coimbatore Ap – 10.7
    Cuddalore – 9.2
    Pamban – 8.4
    Karaikal – 8.1
    Madurai Ap – 4.9
    Parangipettai – 4
    Adirampatnam – 3.8
    Nagapattinam – 1.4
    Tiruchirapalli – 1
    Vellore – 0.7
    Thoothukudi – 0.6
    Chennai Nungambakkam – 0.5
    Chennai Ap – 0.5
    Puducherry – 0.2

    Kanyakumari – Trace

  18. The monsoon trough has moved far east towards Sikkim and NE Bay of Bengal, this should fasten the SWM withdrawal.
    The axis will shift towards central india and parts of north ap by 07th.

  19. past few days good heat,will help for good rainfall in coming days..need to wait, moisture is brewing..and it,s time to see some action soon.. frm bob..

  20. A tropical system over west pacific by 09th October. This is forming very close to maritime continent, this will not allow the NE winds to set in bay, this is pulling winds from south bay to andaman sea.

    This should trigger only westerly winds

  21. ITCZ getting into a series of actions between 5 and 20 N parallels and the one near the Andaman could possibly get detached from this chain and move out …..But we ll have to wait

      • Probable chances are more that way Jupi….,,,,but that could happen if it does intensify , or else might end up some wer parallel to our coast , all depends on the HP areas at various gpm hts. and the strength of the Monsoon circulation

      • The 216 and 240 hour forecasts indicate intensification of the wave and NW movement of the area of lower pressure, but hey, it’s still 216 hours away! GFS on the other hand rules out a cyclone and forecasts an easterly wave

      • Yes surface highs are going to determine the course of nature truly at that instant, more than the upper level ridges in the initial stages……

  22. One thing that is clear is that there will be a pulse in BOB by 10th October.. Let’s see how things shape up leading to it and hopefully the recent inactive people like Gts, ,Vinodh, Sel, Jupi who are all making occasional comments are drawn into the action!

      • Once this system dissipates, the low moisture air/ dry air can decide the onset of ne monsoon after that,if that system heads towards us then that will be the ne monsoon on set for us is sure

      • Yes.. 90% of the time, if a cyclone reaches high intensity it would go northwards and drain moisture, energy, and reduce SST. If we have strong cyclones in NEM that head north, TN can forget about half of that month

  23. I just love NEM season discussion…It’s lovely to hear about the rains in chennai, it’s an icing on the cake when everything proves us wrong and ends up being more than we ever anticipated…

  24. my favorite from the last season was 30w, does anyone remember? that was one of the only positives for chennai…i still remember that thundery morning..

      • Yeah, that was the only fun part of NEM 2013…Apart from that everything went further and further away…That’s not all, more than that, the disappointment was the dry air….Even though a few systems went north…Most of them died a painful death and didn’t fulfill their potential..it would have been much better if they ended up being a wml/dd/low pressure and stayed close to our coast for a few days…

  25. @gokultamilselvam:disqus
    Ennaku oru doubtu.. Remember Nilam ? Was it influenced by an STR to move from Karnataka to Andhra or was it a high ? I think curved after it weakened

    • All we remember was it gave floods to Bengloor and then recurved to give week-long deluges to AP while Chennaites were in Vayatherichal 😦

      • Atleast it gave us some storms from SW when it was in Andhra :/ oh I can’t forget that day. There was heavy rain the day before… but the landfall day was a huge let down 😦

  26. Light rain for 5 mins at Adam today around 9:30am..without any clouds above visible to naked eye..typical of pre-NEM..

  27. What will happen if the below occur during this year’s NEM also?

    1) Less number of easterly waves and that too weak
    2) More cyclones and all heading to Mitan
    3) Popups weakening/disappearing after reaching Marina,Elliots beaches
    4) Popups strengthening after crossing southern/western suburbs of Chennai
    5) A rare cyclone crossing TN calmly and giving floods to interior TN, Bangalore and AP
    6) Cyclone near Andaman triggering electric storms in Bangalore and then moving to North bay

    Kea Bloggers will go mad and will stage road roko near Marina beach under the leadership of Kea !!!

  28. disturbance emerging into bay around oct 6th where most historic cyclones made its way.. r v going to see yet another disaster??

  29. Once again a very clear hot day for chennai, I also feel that if sep has more number of hot n dry days means, our ne monsoon will be very good

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