Rain started early morning today. Not much rain yesterday night.
@PRADEEP MADURAI.
Enjoy you are lucky.
Here 5mm rains in early mrng and now its sunny with dense cumulus formation around.
In Next 2 hours localised TS expected here.
Popups in interiors at 9AM near Vellore and Tirutani.
Power of Easterlies.
These Clouds has the power to form Mature Stage from Starting Stage within 30 mins.
enso neutral conditions continues ..though the enso forecast suggest elnino evolving in OND but the recent conditions doesnt support their forecast… nino 4 sst must show negative anomaly when nino 3 region shows rise in sst anomaly wich typicaly marks elnino arrival.. eventhough nino 3.4 ONI sticks with 0.5 supporting near elnino conditions but sst anomaly is increasing in w.pac with difference http://s30.postimg.org/tzeiq82rl/nin_3_4.png … may be the rise in sst wud be temporary due to mjo or precursor conditions for winter monsoon in s.east asia. rise in sst along w.pacific always reflects bay in terms of cyclone freq n intensity. meanwhie s.east ind ocean wich was showing negative anomaly for few weeks made iod neutral.. now a fresh sst anomaly burst has happened near northwest aus waters http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_low_res/global_anomaly_oper0.png will it sustain n bring back negative DMI back remains a question as of now…
Sel Cyclone , I remember u saying SST anomaly and sub surface anomaly off NW coast of Australia and Timor sea, would circulate in an anticlockwise way carrying with it the anomalous hot waters towards negative IOD and later towards mid Ind. Ocean equatorial waters , Is that the way u expect that heat shift?
yeah… large portion of warm waters moved twrds central n western eq ind ocean last couple of weeks.. now the fresh burst has happened in s.east ind ocean.lets see
BN recorded 2mm from the early morning rains.
Our best bet for today is between 1 and 3pm
Dissipated before reaching ?? But how much rain in ur area ?
Only drizzles yesterday night. Light rains from early morning. Still raining, little bit heavy. I will check my rg later.
Oh! Looks like it is cool there. Maybe a huge TS dissipated and the remnants along with some developed nimbostratus with embedded cumulus due to the presence of LPA are giving you showers
The LPA is expected to move further W into ARB and pull the available moisture which is not too high, however the bands could produce some showers tomorrow morning as well, provided the LPA moves W very slowly. These “fake” easterlies could continue for some more time
Hurricane Rachel is already small. It is under very weak steering winds and it is blocked off to the north. Can it get smaller, as in area of convection. lol
it is forecast to stay at the same area for quite a while, meaning the cloud cover and rainfall could block sunlight and heating which would reduce SST. Succumbing to its own death 😦
Rajesh its looking like developing very intense to the north.
They would dissipate fast as they move WNW.
last gfs run ,one older than the current run showed a system of minimum intensity hitting s.central ap coast on mid oct..tat reminded me of 2005 style but current run doesnt pick tat
Good morning jupi, hope u become active again as NEM is on the horizon :p
Once again, this doesn’t look like true NEM as the easterlies seem to be caused by the LPA’s pull, however one major thing to note is that ARB pulses are generally the first ones to form pre-NEM and result in good convective rainfall activity in interiors and these could also be caused by ITCZ shifting to south.
Yep, ITCZ shifting south is NEM, however going by the forecasts, ITCZ still seems to produce interiors thunderstorms overnight which signals pre-NEM, possibly we could be headed for a 2012 like onset!
we wont get any major rains of the first half of the month (oct) after that slow increase in rain will be there with peaking on november
even though our november is more promising for giving heavy spells with cyclones
yeah but provided our cyclones forms in lower latitudes
definitely it will happen
November is more like a hit or miss month. Even if the key factors are just not favourable for us marginally, it could be disaster. Example : 2012, 2013
no cyclones means our easterlies are there
i hate this fake easterlies as they are disturbing our september month regular storms
“our” regular storms, meaning storms that hit coastal areas in SWM are 90% of the time caused by disturbances, thanks to vinodh’s keen observation. However, very intense thunderstorms will form from late August to early October, but will reach the coast once in a blue moon
@VIGNESH K.
This weather is far better than westerlies.
Easterlies give much cloudiness and some showers.
Lets wait for TS to form we have chance to get rain.
Less moisture now so that.
what is the condition gonna be for our nem??? neutral state or elnino??…
elnino has a good track record as far as nem rainfall is concerned. elnino = good nem. 93% cases of nem has resulted in normal or above normal rainfall during elnino period.. only year wich was contradictory to the above theory was on 1951. but elnino may shrink our nem period. nem had withdrawn earlier in most elnino years and at the same time lanina years hav extended our nem to dec n early jan with high intensity storms.. 1964 rameshwaram cyclone,,2011 thane,2000 lanka system r few examples of late dec system tat happned during laninayears.. even tis year early jan v had a system in s.bay hitting wich is of a similar thing like 2005 .
yes i agree gops ..enso status is of neutral to mild elnino in our forecast.. it was expected to continue n landup in elnino in early november.. but the recent conditions is not upto support elnino…may be i m wrong.. w.pacific being warming greater than any other nino region for past 12 days..tis is making things interesting
Selvafun
Yes,the western pacific is warming up at a faster pace..look at it this way.
1.Mild Elnino + neutral IOD for Oct until Mid Nov…we get our quota of NEM
2.Alarming warming of western pacific may also create a negative IOD ( this is my assumption and need you and others to verify)..this can spawn some huge pulses to come to be delivered into NIO..from then on,its a lottery as the probability of systems hitting North AP / Orissa is high in Nov and Dec.But we may still be luck to get one of these..
Interesting weeks ahead
yes..exactly warming w.pacific will create ripples in s.east ind ocean triggers negative dmi..
I think Bay would become ripe after the below normal convection period (maybe caused by negative ER phase) moves through, that is right at the time, or just before NEM onset
Most models favor El Niño (greater
than or equal to +0.5ºC) to
develop during October-December
2014 and persist through Northern
Hemisphere winter 2014-15.
Susa, whatever it is..We need a head start to this NEM,Can’t afford a sluggish start to this NEM and hoping for a Super November etc…Hopes like, ok , October was not good, history says November is the wettest month for Madras region or TN and that would not fail etc…An ideal scenario would be a Low forming near our treasured place..GOM around October 15th.
Yep, as long as we get rains, nobody would care how it is. However going by recent trends, November seems to be failing more often, with 2007,2010,2012 and 2013. Hopefully November, and more importantly NEM make up for the bad show this time
2012 November was horrible to say the least..We even had minimum temperatures dipping to 17 or 18 i think on November 16 th or 17 i think..
Oh yes I remember. Going to school was a pain, it felt like January in our rainy season 😦
Susa/Novak I’m hopeful this time all we need is 2 or 3 LPAs dumping our quota of rains.i feel last week of october and first week of novemeber is the crucial time….Wet diwali is always a good sign for NEM.
Spot on ..We have not seen a wet Deepavali for quite some time..May be Susa can let us know as to when Deepavali was a wash out in the recent past..
🙄 Deepavali 2011 was wet, Jal struck the day after Deepavali 2010, outer bands produced some showers on that day, localized though
Ok..Thanks for the info..Don’t remember 2011 Deepavali rains at all..But can’t forget the amazing stat for Nunga i think in 2011.. 857.4 mm recorded in both SWM and NEM .
Oh, that deepavali day was amazing. Whole of TN got good rains, it came that morning from SE and struck at around 8:45 am… the crackers were cut short and it rained till 3 pm with nunga recording some 9 cm that day 😦
Hope history repeats again this year..
History of 1997/2005 is what we need!!
Adhu konjam over ahh illa!!! i would be more than happy with 900 to 1000 mm this NEM.
Yep, if we get normal NEM every year, I’d be much happier. Long spells of rain are more enjoyable than 1 hour monster thunderstorms
I too expecting the same
I too feel that we are in for a good NEM this time.
Selvafun– as discussed earlier,SSTS have shown a huge upsurge across basins.This means that the mild Elnino will continue for some time although eastern pacific is cooling down,but not at such a rate that it is going to disturb the Mild Elnnino in Oct 2014.But if this trend continues and if west pacific warms up considerably,then we have a good chance for a negative IOD.As they say,the best test for cooling of eastern pacific is to contact the Peruvian fisherfolks!
Looks like a feast today for South TN..afternoon will see showers in Srivilliputtur,madurai and Kodai..and by evening Cbe and Ooty /coonoor in for good rains..a great evening to drive the Ooty-Mudumalai-Mysore roads
IMD:
The Southwest Monsoon has further withdrawn from remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and east Rajasthan; some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, MadhyaPradesh and Saurashtra; most parts of west Uttar Pradesh and some more parts of Gujarat Region, Kutch and north Arabian Sea. The withdrawal line passes through Jammu, Una, Bareilly, Kanpur, Nowgong, Ujjain, Vadodara, Porbandar, Lat. 22°N / Long. 65°E and Lat. 22°N / Long.60°E.
Conditions are favourable for the further withdrawal of Southwest
Monsoon from remaining parts of northwest India and some more parts of central and west India during next 2-3 days
Susu..i remember the 2011 Deepavali..there was no rain till 7 or 8 am..slowly intermittant showers started..and by noon a huge rain mass came from SE and gave rains for 3-4 hours till 3 or 4pm..crackers sound started again by evening 🙂
Do you have any news about tomorrow whether colleges will work or not
I heard that it is going to be violent for the next few days, educational institutions need to ensure the safety of their pupils and declare holidays, but as of now no idea
Thanks
Which college btw ? I heard it was violent in Kanchi districts.. stay safe
As I guess, everything will be fine by today itself
Yes,
Some buses are already started to run in local.
Where do u go for IIT class? Are u in 11th now?
Its school over
yaaaaa
Yes..we started to receive from 8am..but not continuous..like one shower every 30 mins..it increased slowly..
Ohh yes.. I remember, and then the cloud mass started weakening at 3 pm and allowed us to burst crackers 😀
Almost a week gone, after the successive kea meet held last sunday
Suggestion for next Kea meet….
Why don we organize a mini friendly Cricket match (6 over a side) during the next Kea meet?..it can be done at a ground in the outskirts near to any blogger’s house..if not, atleast on Kea’s terrace 😀
Will come up with a plan soon..meanwhile, convince the Periya Thalais for conducting this match and get their approvals 🙂
Umpire’ah???…Susu thambi..im opener!!! 😀
Appo first time neenga unga secret identity’a reveal panna poringala :OOO
@originaldashman:disqus
Do u still have absentees list ? I remember people from Cuddalore, Kumbakonam, Thiruvarur (gtaman) and even Thanjavur writing in this blog
I stopped updating that list..all bcoz of Kea..moving back n forth between platforms once every 2 months..even i was an absentee for some time during those periods 😀 lol
Studying one Standard below all the above school kids..so i need to be careful too 😛
tell why dash
See Susa and Asad’s discussions below..15 mins back..
I thought you were just born few years back
Very boring..Staying indoors.. :fear: :bayam:
I stay in Thiruporur,work in M.city,travel to workplace either through thiruporur-guduvancherry-m.city or thiruporur-chengalpet->M.city or Thiruporur-Hanumanthapuram(forest area)-anjur-M.city in last year…I always notice M.city,guduvancherry gets more rain than thiruporur,SP koil,chengalpet
During work it will rain more often in M.city when I play ckt between 5-6.30 PM and when I call my parents they say not even a single drop in thiruporur..Also when I leave office by 7 I can see roads wet in M.city to guduvancherry stretch but once I cross kayarembedu in Guduvancherry-thiruporur road it will be dry most of the time..especially during SWM..may be thiruporur gets more quota as its nearby coast
during NEM but last 2 NEM were failures..
Dear, I hv a home near anjur reserve forest area…. The village is called melpakkam, which is adjacent to mahindra
Susu..high-level plan for KEA Cup Cricket match ready.. 🙂
Let us make ppl like Kea,Master,Novak,Anna,Vela,Shankaran,etc. as Umpires/Scorers 😀
Young Guns like me,you,Sel,Jon,Paul,Deepak,GTS,Mr.Chandra Mouli,Jeetu,etc. will play..
Nunga Boys vs SS Group (or) Nunga Vs. Meena…something like that.. 🙂
But anyone is allowed to play regardless of age 😀 It should be at their discretion. But yes, I’m up for Nunga vs Meena or something like that, but we need to convince Lord Kea
Yes Yes..they will be allowed to play..they can even assume the dual role of Umpire/Captain…btw, which team u vl choose if it is Meena vs. Nunga?..remember..u r an outside supporter of Meena… 🙂
If you consider it to be specifically Nunga vs Meena, then Meena obviously.. Nunga is a desert. (Yes, weather influences cricket)
Not joking..im hvng this idea for a long time..i even askd Kea to consider KEA Marathon..but it vl take time to plan, organize and get necessary approvals..it has to be taken care of by Anna..
Susa- Tennis only since Jan 2006, never held a tennis racquet before that..Right from 1st std, its been Cricket only..Have represented my School MCN Hr.Sec school, Habibullah Road, and AM Jain College in Cricket.
Dash, its really a good idea to have some sporting action some time later..Will speak to Kea with others and can have some fun with interested bloggers..
Hey Suraj is back….gud signs for NEM..The Positive Man 🙂
last year it was a very bad sign as positivity didn’t help at all 😦
Mana irundhaal Margabandhu..Suraj irundhaal Deluge Undu 🙂
welcome back
Thank you Paul
Welcome back!
Thanks Susa, Hope you are well!
I’m fine! Hope you are too 🙂
Yes, I am good as well 🙂
welcome back – gone in the hiding for quite sometime now .
Busy with work n stuff, last year with particularly tough for me as i was shifting jobs and all, trying to settle in to a new lifestyle….Night shifts are tough 😦
Its not going to be a tournament..just a one day match with 6 overs a side..
We will organize Kea Cup Tournament after few years 🙂
Kea- Since Dash has come up with this fantastic idea of having a sports day among Kea bloggers, i expect Dash to be present and involve himself and have some fun.
Yes he will be blogging from his home
u mean Playing from home??? rofl
Very hot day indeed, with crystal clear skies, expecting some odd showers
The India Met Department has said in its outlook that the monsoon on the retreat will continue to bring moderate to heavy rain for the south peninsula until October 4.
But the US-based models expect the rains to linger until October 10, especially along coastal Karnataka, Kerala and over adjoining south Tamil Nadu.
They also maintain the watch for the North-East monsoon (winter monsoon)to arrive over peninsular India on time. The normal onset window is October 15 to 20.
“If he meets Shiva his identity will be revealed”
If that happens, it will be revealed only to him..and on a condition that it shud not be revealed to anybody else..especially to u 😀
The El Niño (Warm Phase) normally helps the NEM by increasing the easterlies and its moisture, while on the other hand, the La Nina (Cool phase) normally retards NEM. Observations have also showed that during El Niño years the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) was normal to above normal i.e. the 2006 NEM was above normal due to El Niño. During La Nina years, the NEM was below normal .i.e. the 2003 NEM was deficient and it was a drought year.
NEM can be predicted by the outcome of Southwest monsoon. If the summer monsoon is poor, the winter monsoon would be good and vice versa. This is because SWM and NEM are correlated negatively.
In the present study 110 years (1900-2010) data isused for studying correlative effects between southwest(June-September) and northeast monsoon (October –December) rainfall over Tamil Nadu. For the period of different solar cycles, we compute the correlation co efficients using Spearman Rank technique. A correlation analysis between the two rainfallseries revealed that the southwest monsoon rainfall is negatively correlated with that of the northeast monsoon rainfall. That is, an excess or deficit of southwest monsoonrainfall over this region is generally followed byan opposite tendency in the northeast monsoon rainfall. It also reveals that the rainfall in the two monsoonsis not independent of each other. The negative rainfall relationship can be a useful tool in foreshadowing the northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu, which is of considerable economic importance for this region.
More on
KeaWeather Archives 
Surprise early morning shower in Nunga. 5.4 mm recorded
Lots of TS in coast heading towards chennai, Moderate rain possible and temp can’t exceed 33.5 today.
Early morning drizzles here..May be less than 2mm.
Early morning light showers in Meenambakkam as well
Here too
Raining moderately here.
When did rain started Still now
Rain started early morning today. Not much rain yesterday night.
@PRADEEP MADURAI.
Enjoy you are lucky.
Here 5mm rains in early mrng and now its sunny with dense cumulus formation around.
In Next 2 hours localised TS expected here.
Thanks Mouli. Yes Chennai has got early morning rains. Lets see how the day turns out later.
Dense cumulus around west.
If this trend comes at 10-11am in august severe TS sure at noon to evng.
here good early morning rains recorded……road is fully wet..
Clouds Building up over west than east.
Light rains in Madurai… Steady drizzles from early morning…no signs of sun out…pouring like NEM season
Yesterday night ‘Vada Pochae’
Yes..all clouds are dissipiate when it reaches us 😦
Actually, there was Intense TS clouds in our area during lightning. But it moved and got dissipated. Bad luck.
Good showers expected for
Chidambaram-Nagapattinam Strech.
Lot of TS developing over ENE of Chennai.
Popups in interiors at 9AM near Vellore and Tirutani.
Power of Easterlies.
These Clouds has the power to form Mature Stage from Starting Stage within 30 mins.
From today rains will reduce for interiors as the the trough starts moving
Jeetu,
interior dist which is near to coast will get rains.
I think coastal tn also has a good chance to sneek some showers from here on
Early morning rains…
Parrys 8mm
Thiruvottiyur Nil
Not a drop in T.Nagar. IMD Nunga has recorded 3.5 mm
There will be some drizzles in your place at 5am.
Maybe, but looking at it now, it is very dry, maybe it drizzled
Build up of TS for Delta and Pop up of TS for Chennai.
enso neutral conditions continues ..though the enso forecast suggest elnino evolving in OND but the recent conditions doesnt support their forecast… nino 4 sst must show negative anomaly when nino 3 region shows rise in sst anomaly wich typicaly marks elnino arrival.. eventhough nino 3.4 ONI sticks with 0.5 supporting near elnino conditions but sst anomaly is increasing in w.pac with difference http://s30.postimg.org/tzeiq82rl/nin_3_4.png … may be the rise in sst wud be temporary due to mjo or precursor conditions for winter monsoon in s.east asia. rise in sst along w.pacific always reflects bay in terms of cyclone freq n intensity. meanwhie s.east ind ocean wich was showing negative anomaly for few weeks made iod neutral.. now a fresh sst anomaly burst has happened near northwest aus waters http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_low_res/global_anomaly_oper0.png will it sustain n bring back negative DMI back remains a question as of now…
Sel Cyclone , I remember u saying SST anomaly and sub surface anomaly off NW coast of Australia and Timor sea, would circulate in an anticlockwise way carrying with it the anomalous hot waters towards negative IOD and later towards mid Ind. Ocean equatorial waters , Is that the way u expect that heat shift?
yeah… large portion of warm waters moved twrds central n western eq ind ocean last couple of weeks.. now the fresh burst has happened in s.east ind ocean.lets see
BN recorded 2mm from the early morning rains.
Our best bet for today is between 1 and 3pm
or let us say 12 noon and 2pm
Madurai has recorded 13.9 mm
It would have been more in some areas. There was Intense TS with heavy lightning and thunder.
Dissipated before reaching ?? But how much rain in ur area ?
Only drizzles yesterday night. Light rains from early morning. Still raining, little bit heavy. I will check my rg later.
Oh! Looks like it is cool there. Maybe a huge TS dissipated and the remnants along with some developed nimbostratus with embedded cumulus due to the presence of LPA are giving you showers
The LPA is expected to move further W into ARB and pull the available moisture which is not too high, however the bands could produce some showers tomorrow morning as well, provided the LPA moves W very slowly. These “fake” easterlies could continue for some more time
Hurricane Rachel is already small. It is under very weak steering winds and it is blocked off to the north. Can it get smaller, as in area of convection. lol
it is forecast to stay at the same area for quite a while, meaning the cloud cover and rainfall could block sunlight and heating which would reduce SST. Succumbing to its own death 😦
South interior getting good rains especially madurai,dindugal,sivaganga dist.
@selvanfun:disqus
Hi Sel, if you are here and find time, please post, there is something that could interest you, we could possibly discuss in FB
kea fb page?
FB chat, if you find time
ok
Who is that Guest?
susa
Once again, strong thunderstorms to the north. A few more developing towers to the SW and W
They would dissipate inland in no time.
Some storms hit Nellore this morning
Rajesh its looking like developing very intense to the north.
They would dissipate fast as they move WNW.
last gfs run ,one older than the current run showed a system of minimum intensity hitting s.central ap coast on mid oct..tat reminded me of 2005 style but current run doesnt pick tat
Forecast is too far ahead, but still
Good morning
Awesome Maddy! 🙂
Good morning jupi, hope u become active again as NEM is on the horizon :p
Once again, this doesn’t look like true NEM as the easterlies seem to be caused by the LPA’s pull, however one major thing to note is that ARB pulses are generally the first ones to form pre-NEM and result in good convective rainfall activity in interiors and these could also be caused by ITCZ shifting to south.
Well that is NEM….
Yep, ITCZ shifting south is NEM, however going by the forecasts, ITCZ still seems to produce interiors thunderstorms overnight which signals pre-NEM, possibly we could be headed for a 2012 like onset!
we wont get any major rains of the first half of the month (oct) after that slow increase in rain will be there with peaking on november
last week of oct never failed for tn in last few years..
even though our november is more promising for giving heavy spells with cyclones
yeah but provided our cyclones forms in lower latitudes
definitely it will happen
November is more like a hit or miss month. Even if the key factors are just not favourable for us marginally, it could be disaster. Example : 2012, 2013
no cyclones means our easterlies are there
i hate this fake easterlies as they are disturbing our september month regular storms
“our” regular storms, meaning storms that hit coastal areas in SWM are 90% of the time caused by disturbances, thanks to vinodh’s keen observation. However, very intense thunderstorms will form from late August to early October, but will reach the coast once in a blue moon
OOO monster anvil to the NW.
it is there but what is the use
We can enjoy these beautiful sights!
and in time of NEM we can enjoy the rains given by those clouds
Was there any rain in Karnataka yesterday ? Any ideas ?
@VIGNESH K.
This weather is far better than westerlies.
Easterlies give much cloudiness and some showers.
Lets wait for TS to form we have chance to get rain.
Less moisture now so that.
but it makes it so humid westerlies are more comfortable at this time of the year
what is the condition gonna be for our nem??? neutral state or elnino??…
elnino has a good track record as far as nem rainfall is concerned. elnino = good nem. 93% cases of nem has resulted in normal or above normal rainfall during elnino period.. only year wich was contradictory to the above theory was on 1951. but elnino may shrink our nem period. nem had withdrawn earlier in most elnino years and at the same time lanina years hav extended our nem to dec n early jan with high intensity storms.. 1964 rameshwaram cyclone,,2011 thane,2000 lanka system r few examples of late dec system tat happned during laninayears.. even tis year early jan v had a system in s.bay hitting wich is of a similar thing like 2005 .
Yep.. 1 storm that gave rains to Delta districts and another weak disturbance in Jan.
Selvafun…Mild Elnino is on until Dec for sure.
IOD will be neutral.
SSTs will be high.
Recipe for a good NEM thru some LPAs / DDs
@Selva..as of now,Mild Elnino persists..see the below links
http://www.king5.com/story/news/local/2014/09/25/the-blob-affects-our-weather/16240841/
yes i agree gops ..enso status is of neutral to mild elnino in our forecast.. it was expected to continue n landup in elnino in early november.. but the recent conditions is not upto support elnino…may be i m wrong.. w.pacific being warming greater than any other nino region for past 12 days..tis is making things interesting
Selvafun
Yes,the western pacific is warming up at a faster pace..look at it this way.
1.Mild Elnino + neutral IOD for Oct until Mid Nov…we get our quota of NEM
2.Alarming warming of western pacific may also create a negative IOD ( this is my assumption and need you and others to verify)..this can spawn some huge pulses to come to be delivered into NIO..from then on,its a lottery as the probability of systems hitting North AP / Orissa is high in Nov and Dec.But we may still be luck to get one of these..
Interesting weeks ahead
yes..exactly warming w.pacific will create ripples in s.east ind ocean triggers negative dmi..
OMG!
Coonoor – 114 mm
Karur – 55 mm
That’s big number for Coonoor at this time of the year.
Adiramapattnam having NEM like days, 42 mm today which was backed up by good showers last 2 days
Selvan Fun
Yep.. Pacific being warmer than other ENSO regions.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
I think Bay would become ripe after the below normal convection period (maybe caused by negative ER phase) moves through, that is right at the time, or just before NEM onset
Attention!
NWS CPC outlook for this year’s end
Most models favor El Niño (greater
than or equal to +0.5ºC) to
develop during October-December
2014 and persist through Northern
Hemisphere winter 2014-15.
Susa– we are in for a great Oct
http://www.king5.com/story/news/local/2014/09/25/the-blob-affects-our-weather/16240841/
Susa, whatever it is..We need a head start to this NEM,Can’t afford a sluggish start to this NEM and hoping for a Super November etc…Hopes like, ok , October was not good, history says November is the wettest month for Madras region or TN and that would not fail etc…An ideal scenario would be a Low forming near our treasured place..GOM around October 15th.
Yep, as long as we get rains, nobody would care how it is. However going by recent trends, November seems to be failing more often, with 2007,2010,2012 and 2013. Hopefully November, and more importantly NEM make up for the bad show this time
2012 November was horrible to say the least..We even had minimum temperatures dipping to 17 or 18 i think on November 16 th or 17 i think..
Oh yes I remember. Going to school was a pain, it felt like January in our rainy season 😦
Susa/Novak I’m hopeful this time all we need is 2 or 3 LPAs dumping our quota of rains.i feel last week of october and first week of novemeber is the crucial time….Wet diwali is always a good sign for NEM.
Spot on ..We have not seen a wet Deepavali for quite some time..May be Susa can let us know as to when Deepavali was a wash out in the recent past..
🙄 Deepavali 2011 was wet, Jal struck the day after Deepavali 2010, outer bands produced some showers on that day, localized though
Ok..Thanks for the info..Don’t remember 2011 Deepavali rains at all..But can’t forget the amazing stat for Nunga i think in 2011.. 857.4 mm recorded in both SWM and NEM .
Oh, that deepavali day was amazing. Whole of TN got good rains, it came that morning from SE and struck at around 8:45 am… the crackers were cut short and it rained till 3 pm with nunga recording some 9 cm that day 😦
Hope history repeats again this year..
History of 1997/2005 is what we need!!
Adhu konjam over ahh illa!!! i would be more than happy with 900 to 1000 mm this NEM.
Yep, if we get normal NEM every year, I’d be much happier. Long spells of rain are more enjoyable than 1 hour monster thunderstorms
I too expecting the same
I too feel that we are in for a good NEM this time.
Mahabs enjoying the TSs from the sea
These storms are moving from a south easterly direction..can we say UAC effect has got subdued.
My rg has recorded 9mm from this spell. So far, 6 cm in this week.
Madurai AP beats ur house for once
Madurai was in dire need of these rains.Good the city is enjoying the current spell of rains.
Yes, the rainfall has been good so far in this year.
Area of convection near Mahab might move north
yes..we have a good chance until 3pm
yep.. what u said this morning might come true!
Heavy Thunder Clouds over South,West and North of Chennai than East.
Mahabs to Cuddalore in for good rains by noon.
Central and southern Srilanka in for heavy rains by afternoon
Super ts over sea
Plenty of cumulus and cumulonimbus and TS over the sky.
Sky looks beautiful today.
More anvils at south.
ya i too see that
Selvafun– as discussed earlier,SSTS have shown a huge upsurge across basins.This means that the mild Elnino will continue for some time although eastern pacific is cooling down,but not at such a rate that it is going to disturb the Mild Elnnino in Oct 2014.But if this trend continues and if west pacific warms up considerably,then we have a good chance for a negative IOD.As they say,the best test for cooling of eastern pacific is to contact the Peruvian fisherfolks!
Susa top the list in the top commenters by exceeding Vela.
Lots of ts popup inside our interior tamilnadu
Looks like a feast today for South TN..afternoon will see showers in Srivilliputtur,madurai and Kodai..and by evening Cbe and Ooty /coonoor in for good rains..a great evening to drive the Ooty-Mudumalai-Mysore roads
Pradeep-Madurai should keep us posted
Its time we have some bloggers from Kodai and Ooty
Huge cumulus over east , Amazing it as
Looks like it has rained today early morning..roads were completely wet in Adam..
Dense ts clouds all around chennai,making chennai a rain shadow region
IMD:
The Southwest Monsoon has further withdrawn from remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and east Rajasthan; some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, MadhyaPradesh and Saurashtra; most parts of west Uttar Pradesh and some more parts of Gujarat Region, Kutch and north Arabian Sea. The withdrawal line passes through Jammu, Una, Bareilly, Kanpur, Nowgong, Ujjain, Vadodara, Porbandar, Lat. 22°N / Long. 65°E and Lat. 22°N / Long.60°E.
Conditions are favourable for the further withdrawal of Southwest
Monsoon from remaining parts of northwest India and some more parts of central and west India during next 2-3 days
is ts moving sea to land or land to sea?
sea to land
the sky looks clean blue….some of the low clouds moving..that’s it
Susu..i remember the 2011 Deepavali..there was no rain till 7 or 8 am..slowly intermittant showers started..and by noon a huge rain mass came from SE and gave rains for 3-4 hours till 3 or 4pm..crackers sound started again by evening 🙂
That was an epic day 😀 But don’t you remember the super showers at 9 am that morning ??
What sudharsan , you are super active today
No IIT class today as well
Do you have any news about tomorrow whether colleges will work or not
I heard that it is going to be violent for the next few days, educational institutions need to ensure the safety of their pupils and declare holidays, but as of now no idea
Thanks
Which college btw ? I heard it was violent in Kanchi districts.. stay safe
As I guess, everything will be fine by today itself
Yes,
Some buses are already started to run in local.
Where do u go for IIT class? Are u in 11th now?
Its school over
yaaaaa
Yes..we started to receive from 8am..but not continuous..like one shower every 30 mins..it increased slowly..
Ohh yes.. I remember, and then the cloud mass started weakening at 3 pm and allowed us to burst crackers 😀
Almost a week gone, after the successive kea meet held last sunday
Suggestion for next Kea meet….
Why don we organize a mini friendly Cricket match (6 over a side) during the next Kea meet?..it can be done at a ground in the outskirts near to any blogger’s house..if not, atleast on Kea’s terrace 😀
I’m w/u. Superb idea. But we will play only if u show up and play/umpire
Will come up with a plan soon..meanwhile, convince the Periya Thalais for conducting this match and get their approvals 🙂
Umpire’ah???…Susu thambi..im opener!!! 😀
Appo first time neenga unga secret identity’a reveal panna poringala :OOO
No chance he will put mask and come, as mugamoodi
Boss i am a small boy so , i am the opener
Super idea ,
ya super idea pa..
Omg!!! Lots of ts popup started inside the land
Hope my area thiruporur will get rain in another 1 hr..
Pls provide the full form of WTBSC…. 😀 Edho HSBC maadhiri irukku.. lol
Nothing specific.. just like that..
hmmm…so we have got one Updater from far end of OMR now 🙂
surely I will give regular updates about rain..but technically I am not good in forecasting,analyzing weather like you folks..beginner/learner…
One week completed after Kea’s big successive meet
Cricket match during , kea meet is good idea
@originaldashman:disqus
Do u still have absentees list ? I remember people from Cuddalore, Kumbakonam, Thiruvarur (gtaman) and even Thanjavur writing in this blog
I stopped updating that list..all bcoz of Kea..moving back n forth between platforms once every 2 months..even i was an absentee for some time during those periods 😀 lol
haha, I think many of them made cameos here however
PowerPaul, Deepak and Maddy…Naalaiku ellarum School’ku jaakradhaya paathu careful’a poganum..okva? 😀
Why dash?
What you are doing?
Studying one Standard below all the above school kids..so i need to be careful too 😛
tell why dash
See Susa and Asad’s discussions below..15 mins back..
I thought you were just born few years back
Very boring..Staying indoors.. :fear: :bayam:
I stay in Thiruporur,work in M.city,travel to workplace either through thiruporur-guduvancherry-m.city or thiruporur-chengalpet->M.city or Thiruporur-Hanumanthapuram(forest area)-anjur-M.city in last year…I always notice M.city,guduvancherry gets more rain than thiruporur,SP koil,chengalpet
SP Koil is next to MCity and Gudu..how come u r clubbing it with Tiruporur and saying it gets less rains?
During work it will rain more often in M.city when I play ckt between 5-6.30 PM and when I call my parents they say not even a single drop in thiruporur..Also when I leave office by 7 I can see roads wet in M.city to guduvancherry stretch but once I cross kayarembedu in Guduvancherry-thiruporur road it will be dry most of the time..especially during SWM..may be thiruporur gets more quota as its nearby coast
during NEM but last 2 NEM were failures..
Dear, I hv a home near anjur reserve forest area…. The village is called melpakkam, which is adjacent to mahindra
models focus on bay oct 7th..ecmwf http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20140928065712-22393-1053.gif ncmwrf http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/Data/2014-09-28/NGFS-Outputs/Wind-Forecast/pft10_850.jpg navgem and cmc picking current arb convection to develop into minimal disturbance ..
It will,BBC predicted this almost a week before
Tamilnadu Rainfall Ending 8.30am Today.
Coonoor PTO (Nilgiris Dist) 11,
Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist) 9,
Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist) 7 each,
Ketti (Nilgiris Dist) 6,
K.paramathi (Karur Dist), Ramanathapuram (Ramanathapuram Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist), Illayangudi (Sivaganga Dist) 5 each,
Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Uthagamandalam (Nilgiris Dist) 4 each,
Mudukulatur (Ramanathapuram Dist), Mettupalayam (Coimbatore Dist), K bridge (Nilgiris Dist), Peravurani (Thanjavur Dist), Bhavanisagar (Erode Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kamatchipuram (Dindigul Dist), Krishnagiri (Krishnagiri Dist), Poonamallee (Tiruvallur Dist), Udumalpet (Tiruppur Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist) 3 each,
Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist), Mylam AWS (Villupuram Dist), Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist), Uthangarai (Krishnagiri Dist), Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist), Usilampatti (Madurai Dist), Kadaladi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Uthagamandalam AWS (Nilgiris Dist), Sivaganga (Sivaganga Dist), Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist), Kovilpatti (Toothukudi Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Vedasandur (Dindigul Dist), Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist) 2 each,
DGP office (Chennai Dist), Taramani arg (Kancheepuram Dist), Periyakulam (Theni Dist), Paramakudi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Sivagiri (Tirunelveli Dist), Madurai south (Madurai Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Sathyamangalam (Erode Dist), Parangipettai (Cuddalore Dist), Kvk kattukuppam arg (Kancheepuram Dist), Manamelkudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Cheyyur (Kancheepuram Dist), Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram Dist), Rayakottah (Krishnagiri Dist), Sholavandan (Madurai Dist), Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar Dist), Tirumayam (Pudukkottai Dist), Kamudhi arg (Ramanathapuram Dist), Watrap (Virudhunagar Dist), Viralimalai (Pudukkottai Dist), Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Paramathivelur (Namakkal Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Tondi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist), R.s.mangalam (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kalavai AWS (Vellore Dist), Sankarapuram (Villupuram Dist), Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist) 1 each.
Rainfall in Chennai.
Poonamallee-3cm
DGP office,Taramani,KVK kattukuppam-1cm
So humid outside.
Temp-31.9’C but looking like 37-38’C.
Clouds are started to dissipate and new clouds making up the entrance to chennai from east.
Looks like our Devil_Master has become “Anti-Blog” member now 😛
@originaldashman:disqus Aren’t u working in Porur ? PS holidays for me
Susu..high-level plan for KEA Cup Cricket match ready.. 🙂
Let us make ppl like Kea,Master,Novak,Anna,Vela,Shankaran,etc. as Umpires/Scorers 😀
Young Guns like me,you,Sel,Jon,Paul,Deepak,GTS,Mr.Chandra Mouli,Jeetu,etc. will play..
Nunga Boys vs SS Group (or) Nunga Vs. Meena…something like that.. 🙂
But anyone is allowed to play regardless of age 😀 It should be at their discretion. But yes, I’m up for Nunga vs Meena or something like that, but we need to convince Lord Kea
Yes Yes..they will be allowed to play..they can even assume the dual role of Umpire/Captain…btw, which team u vl choose if it is Meena vs. Nunga?..remember..u r an outside supporter of Meena… 🙂
If you consider it to be specifically Nunga vs Meena, then Meena obviously.. Nunga is a desert. (Yes, weather influences cricket)
ya ya ..very dry team 😆
I like cricket very much .
when the match
ya i too…pls join and tell the date correctly..
by the time who will bring bat,ball,stump etc…
Wait Wait…first of all, our periya thalais must give their nod..
@originaldashman:disqus
Lol I’m not in 11th and all, but I go to KK Anand’s Coaching Centre
Good cloud formation over outside
Instead of just joking about this, how about we actually plan for this haha. We have expert planners Novak and Gopal, but are they cricket fans ?!?!
If u ask Novak to organize, he will come with HEAD gears..Kea terrace’la naduvla NET katti vilayada solvaru.. ha ha 😀
Not joking..im hvng this idea for a long time..i even askd Kea to consider KEA Marathon..but it vl take time to plan, organize and get necessary approvals..it has to be taken care of by Anna..
Susa- Tennis only since Jan 2006, never held a tennis racquet before that..Right from 1st std, its been Cricket only..Have represented my School MCN Hr.Sec school, Habibullah Road, and AM Jain College in Cricket.
Dash, its really a good idea to have some sporting action some time later..Will speak to Kea with others and can have some fun with interested bloggers..
😮 That’s really nice.
But.. But.. What if KEA members indulge in match fixing :O OO
Banned from posting in Kea blog for 1 year 😀
pahh super
There wont be any winner or loser..just to develop team skills and have some fun..
Yes, absolutely.
I too love cricket . I will play for nunga
I will play for Meena
I was just joking haha, but yes, taht’s the right motive!
Kea- That’s a good idea thrown by dash, why not we plan something like a sporting day–Kea -sports day.Do think about it.
Yes..not just Cricket..any indoor or outdoor sporting event also….
KPL?
Hey Suraj is back….gud signs for NEM..The Positive Man 🙂
last year it was a very bad sign as positivity didn’t help at all 😦
Mana irundhaal Margabandhu..Suraj irundhaal Deluge Undu 🙂
welcome back
Thank you Paul
Welcome back!
Thanks Susa, Hope you are well!
I’m fine! Hope you are too 🙂
Yes, I am good as well 🙂
welcome back – gone in the hiding for quite sometime now .
Busy with work n stuff, last year with particularly tough for me as i was shifting jobs and all, trying to settle in to a new lifestyle….Night shifts are tough 😦
Its not going to be a tournament..just a one day match with 6 overs a side..
We will organize Kea Cup Tournament after few years 🙂
okay cool 🙂
Hi Suraj, welcome back sir
I welcome
So hot now , some showers possible towards evening
Yes Paul, we can expect some showers tonight for sure..
Paul..Anybody can play for any team they wish..not based on ur locality..
UPS Novak..hope u got that..u can play for Meena too 😛
First you and our sport organiser Shiva meet and discuss. Then we will move forward.
First tell odm to reveal his identity
If he meets Shiva his identity will be revealed
That’s fine
Kea- Since Dash has come up with this fantastic idea of having a sports day among Kea bloggers, i expect Dash to be present and involve himself and have some fun.
Yes he will be blogging from his home
u mean Playing from home??? rofl
Very hot day indeed, with crystal clear skies, expecting some odd showers
In NEM only indoor cricket possible. So Jan is the earliest we can plan
Match and idea cancelled. ODM wants me to be an umpire
Kea I’m interested in this idea! 🙂
You can be captain of nunga
January is too cold… Next month should be ideal before onset of NEM
Might be on pongal holidays, so everybody will be available
Jeetu January is a cold month 😦
I am always available,i don’t have any problem, naane raja naane manthiri
Too cold in chennai? 1
Yes temp will go below 20C
Good idea by Odm. Let us organize.. Odm and shiva …
I’ll organize the teams and tell you guys shortly…
Fine
The India Met Department has said in its outlook that the monsoon on the retreat will continue to bring moderate to heavy rain for the south peninsula until October 4.
But the US-based models expect the rains to linger until October 10, especially along coastal Karnataka, Kerala and over adjoining south Tamil Nadu.
They also maintain the watch for the North-East monsoon (winter monsoon)to arrive over peninsular India on time. The normal onset window is October 15 to 20.
http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=39&start=400
Can the Arabian sea disturbance has the potential to bag the name hudhud?
Blog is again gone to silent mode, after active morning session, may be all of them resting because of heavy meals that they had
ha ha..gud one..
“If he meets Shiva his identity will be revealed”
If that happens, it will be revealed only to him..and on a condition that it shud not be revealed to anybody else..especially to u 😀
Happy Birthday to Rohit Santhosh 🙂
The El Niño (Warm Phase) normally helps the NEM by increasing the easterlies and its moisture, while on the other hand, the La Nina (Cool phase) normally retards NEM. Observations have also showed that during El Niño years the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) was normal to above normal i.e. the 2006 NEM was above normal due to El Niño. During La Nina years, the NEM was below normal .i.e. the 2003 NEM was deficient and it was a drought year.
Pradeep,
2003 is a ENSO-neutral year. Its not Lanina year.
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
NEM can be predicted by the outcome of Southwest monsoon. If the summer monsoon is poor, the winter monsoon would be good and vice versa. This is because SWM and NEM are correlated negatively.
“This is because SWM and NEM are correlated negatively”
I’m missing Master badly now…..
Need to know what is the status of El Nino now. Hope this year NEM will be normal.
It’s not always the case… 2010, 2011 are fine examples in just the last 5 years
Intense storms forming NE of Madurai
Here already gone dark. Waiting for rains.
Some flanking cells could form and bring rains.. enjoy
Really you had a active rainy days for almost a week
Looks like its clean and dry skies all over the chennai now
Happy birthday rohit santhosh!
In the present study 110 years (1900-2010) data isused for studying correlative effects between southwest(June-September) and northeast monsoon (October –December) rainfall over Tamil Nadu. For the period of different solar cycles, we compute the correlation co efficients using Spearman Rank technique. A correlation analysis between the two rainfallseries revealed that the southwest monsoon rainfall is negatively correlated with that of the northeast monsoon rainfall. That is, an excess or deficit of southwest monsoonrainfall over this region is generally followed byan opposite tendency in the northeast monsoon rainfall. It also reveals that the rainfall in the two monsoonsis not independent of each other. The negative rainfall relationship can be a useful tool in foreshadowing the northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu, which is of considerable economic importance for this region.
More on
Click to access ujert-1-4-23.pdf
Nice study. It is pretty common, but doesn’t always follow the same trend
Very boring season of the year for Chennai..except for the delightful sights of the clouds..extremely humid..
We need to wait for a painstaking 20 days
We may get some sep storms, once this uac/lpa moves further west
They have a 0.02 % chance of reaching the coast unless there is a disturbance in BOB
enna pa pulli vibaram is so acute
Exactly
@novak_nole:disqus
You are the unluckiest man on the planet. CIAL Kochi has recorded 9 cm and Ernakulam has recorded 4 cm
Old Kochi AP records 5 cm
Looks like distrubance is well organising
My probable names for the Kea premiere league teams are:
Nungambakkam Eddies
Tiruvottiyur Surfers
Ambattur Leewards
Meenambakkam Stormers
KKNagar Twisters
OMR Torrents
Anna Nagar Deluges
Mount Road Rainbows
Tambaram Torrs
Triplicane Hurricanes
“Mount Road Rainbows” rofl
But do we have THAT many players ?
what about us
perambur pythons/phailins/poineers
It will be better to add cyclones/hurricane names with the area because we belong to weather blog