464 thoughts on “Few showers likely

  1. @PRADEEP MADURAI.
    Enjoy you are lucky.
    Here 5mm rains in early mrng and now its sunny with dense cumulus formation around.
    In Next 2 hours localised TS expected here.

  2. Popups in interiors at 9AM near Vellore and Tirutani.
    Power of Easterlies.
    These Clouds has the power to form Mature Stage from Starting Stage within 30 mins.

  3. enso neutral conditions continues ..though the enso forecast suggest elnino evolving in OND but the recent conditions doesnt support their forecast… nino 4 sst must show negative anomaly when nino 3 region shows rise in sst anomaly wich typicaly marks elnino arrival.. eventhough nino 3.4 ONI sticks with 0.5 supporting near elnino conditions but sst anomaly is increasing in w.pac with difference http://s30.postimg.org/tzeiq82rl/nin_3_4.png … may be the rise in sst wud be temporary due to mjo or precursor conditions for winter monsoon in s.east asia. rise in sst along w.pacific always reflects bay in terms of cyclone freq n intensity. meanwhie s.east ind ocean wich was showing negative anomaly for few weeks made iod neutral.. now a fresh sst anomaly burst has happened near northwest aus waters http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_low_res/global_anomaly_oper0.png will it sustain n bring back negative DMI back remains a question as of now…

    • Sel Cyclone , I remember u saying SST anomaly and sub surface anomaly off NW coast of Australia and Timor sea, would circulate in an anticlockwise way carrying with it the anomalous hot waters towards negative IOD and later towards mid Ind. Ocean equatorial waters , Is that the way u expect that heat shift?

      • yeah… large portion of warm waters moved twrds central n western eq ind ocean last couple of weeks.. now the fresh burst has happened in s.east ind ocean.lets see

      • Only drizzles yesterday night. Light rains from early morning. Still raining, little bit heavy. I will check my rg later.

      • Oh! Looks like it is cool there. Maybe a huge TS dissipated and the remnants along with some developed nimbostratus with embedded cumulus due to the presence of LPA are giving you showers

  4. The LPA is expected to move further W into ARB and pull the available moisture which is not too high, however the bands could produce some showers tomorrow morning as well, provided the LPA moves W very slowly. These “fake” easterlies could continue for some more time

  5. Hurricane Rachel is already small. It is under very weak steering winds and it is blocked off to the north. Can it get smaller, as in area of convection. lol

    it is forecast to stay at the same area for quite a while, meaning the cloud cover and rainfall could block sunlight and heating which would reduce SST. Succumbing to its own death ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

  6. @selvanfun:disqus
    Hi Sel, if you are here and find time, please post, there is something that could interest you, we could possibly discuss in FB

  7. last gfs run ,one older than the current run showed a system of minimum intensity hitting s.central ap coast on mid oct..tat reminded me of 2005 style but current run doesnt pick tat

  8. Once again, this doesn’t look like true NEM as the easterlies seem to be caused by the LPA’s pull, however one major thing to note is that ARB pulses are generally the first ones to form pre-NEM and result in good convective rainfall activity in interiors and these could also be caused by ITCZ shifting to south.

  9. we wont get any major rains of the first half of the month (oct) after that slow increase in rain will be there with peaking on november

    • “our” regular storms, meaning storms that hit coastal areas in SWM are 90% of the time caused by disturbances, thanks to vinodh’s keen observation. However, very intense thunderstorms will form from late August to early October, but will reach the coast once in a blue moon

  10. @VIGNESH K.
    This weather is far better than westerlies.
    Easterlies give much cloudiness and some showers.
    Lets wait for TS to form we have chance to get rain.
    Less moisture now so that.

  11. what is the condition gonna be for our nem??? neutral state or elnino??…
    elnino has a good track record as far as nem rainfall is concerned. elnino = good nem. 93% cases of nem has resulted in normal or above normal rainfall during elnino period.. only year wich was contradictory to the above theory was on 1951. but elnino may shrink our nem period. nem had withdrawn earlier in most elnino years and at the same time lanina years hav extended our nem to dec n early jan with high intensity storms.. 1964 rameshwaram cyclone,,2011 thane,2000 lanka system r few examples of late dec system tat happned during laninayears.. even tis year early jan v had a system in s.bay hitting wich is of a similar thing like 2005 .

    • yes i agree gops ..enso status is of neutral to mild elnino in our forecast.. it was expected to continue n landup in elnino in early november.. but the recent conditions is not upto support elnino…may be i m wrong.. w.pacific being warming greater than any other nino region for past 12 days..tis is making things interesting

      • Selvafun
        Yes,the western pacific is warming up at a faster pace..look at it this way.
        1.Mild Elnino + neutral IOD for Oct until Mid Nov…we get our quota of NEM
        2.Alarming warming of western pacific may also create a negative IOD ( this is my assumption and need you and others to verify)..this can spawn some huge pulses to come to be delivered into NIO..from then on,its a lottery as the probability of systems hitting North AP / Orissa is high in Nov and Dec.But we may still be luck to get one of these..
        Interesting weeks ahead

  12. I think Bay would become ripe after the below normal convection period (maybe caused by negative ER phase) moves through, that is right at the time, or just before NEM onset

  13. Attention!
    NWS CPC outlook for this year’s end

    Most models favor El Niรฑo (greater
    than or equal to +0.5ยบC) to
    develop during October-December
    2014 and persist through Northern
    Hemisphere winter 2014-15.

  14. Susa, whatever it is..We need a head start to this NEM,Can’t afford a sluggish start to this NEM and hoping for a Super November etc…Hopes like, ok , October was not good, history says November is the wettest month for Madras region or TN and that would not fail etc…An ideal scenario would be a Low forming near our treasured place..GOM around October 15th.

    • Yep, as long as we get rains, nobody would care how it is. However going by recent trends, November seems to be failing more often, with 2007,2010,2012 and 2013. Hopefully November, and more importantly NEM make up for the bad show this time

      • 2012 November was horrible to say the least..We even had minimum temperatures dipping to 17 or 18 i think on November 16 th or 17 i think..

      • Susa/Novak I’m hopeful this time all we need is 2 or 3 LPAs dumping our quota of rains.i feel last week of october and first week of novemeber is the crucial time….Wet diwali is always a good sign for NEM.

      • Spot on ..We have not seen a wet Deepavali for quite some time..May be Susa can let us know as to when Deepavali was a wash out in the recent past..

      • ๐Ÿ™„ Deepavali 2011 was wet, Jal struck the day after Deepavali 2010, outer bands produced some showers on that day, localized though

      • Ok..Thanks for the info..Don’t remember 2011 Deepavali rains at all..But can’t forget the amazing stat for Nunga i think in 2011.. 857.4 mm recorded in both SWM and NEM .

      • Oh, that deepavali day was amazing. Whole of TN got good rains, it came that morning from SE and struck at around 8:45 am… the crackers were cut short and it rained till 3 pm with nunga recording some 9 cm that day ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

      • Yep, if we get normal NEM every year, I’d be much happier. Long spells of rain are more enjoyable than 1 hour monster thunderstorms

    • Selvafun– as discussed earlier,SSTS have shown a huge upsurge across basins.This means that the mild Elnino will continue for some time although eastern pacific is cooling down,but not at such a rate that it is going to disturb the Mild Elnnino in Oct 2014.But if this trend continues and if west pacific warms up considerably,then we have a good chance for a negative IOD.As they say,the best test for cooling of eastern pacific is to contact the Peruvian fisherfolks!

  15. Looks like a feast today for South TN..afternoon will see showers in Srivilliputtur,madurai and Kodai..and by evening Cbe and Ooty /coonoor in for good rains..a great evening to drive the Ooty-Mudumalai-Mysore roads

  16. IMD:
    The Southwest Monsoon has further withdrawn from remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and east Rajasthan; some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, MadhyaPradesh and Saurashtra; most parts of west Uttar Pradesh and some more parts of Gujarat Region, Kutch and north Arabian Sea. The withdrawal line passes through Jammu, Una, Bareilly, Kanpur, Nowgong, Ujjain, Vadodara, Porbandar, Lat. 22ยฐN / Long. 65ยฐE and Lat. 22ยฐN / Long.60ยฐE.

    Conditions are favourable for the further withdrawal of Southwest
    Monsoon from remaining parts of northwest India and some more parts of central and west India during next 2-3 days

  17. Susu..i remember the 2011 Deepavali..there was no rain till 7 or 8 am..slowly intermittant showers started..and by noon a huge rain mass came from SE and gave rains for 3-4 hours till 3 or 4pm..crackers sound started again by evening ๐Ÿ™‚

  18. Suggestion for next Kea meet….
    Why don we organize a mini friendly Cricket match (6 over a side) during the next Kea meet?..it can be done at a ground in the outskirts near to any blogger’s house..if not, atleast on Kea’s terrace ๐Ÿ˜€

  19. @originaldashman:disqus
    Do u still have absentees list ? I remember people from Cuddalore, Kumbakonam, Thiruvarur (gtaman) and even Thanjavur writing in this blog

    • I stopped updating that list..all bcoz of Kea..moving back n forth between platforms once every 2 months..even i was an absentee for some time during those periods ๐Ÿ˜€ lol

  20. PowerPaul, Deepak and Maddy…Naalaiku ellarum School’ku jaakradhaya paathu careful’a poganum..okva? ๐Ÿ˜€

  21. I stay in Thiruporur,work in M.city,travel to workplace either through thiruporur-guduvancherry-m.city or thiruporur-chengalpet->M.city or Thiruporur-Hanumanthapuram(forest area)-anjur-M.city in last year…I always notice M.city,guduvancherry gets more rain than thiruporur,SP koil,chengalpet

      • During work it will rain more often in M.city when I play ckt between 5-6.30 PM and when I call my parents they say not even a single drop in thiruporur..Also when I leave office by 7 I can see roads wet in M.city to guduvancherry stretch but once I cross kayarembedu in Guduvancherry-thiruporur road it will be dry most of the time..especially during SWM..may be thiruporur gets more quota as its nearby coast
        during NEM but last 2 NEM were failures..

  22. Tamilnadu Rainfall Ending 8.30am Today.

    Coonoor PTO (Nilgiris Dist) 11,

    Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist) 9,

    Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist) 7 each,

    Ketti (Nilgiris Dist) 6,

    K.paramathi (Karur Dist), Ramanathapuram (Ramanathapuram Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist), Illayangudi (Sivaganga Dist) 5 each,

    Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Uthagamandalam (Nilgiris Dist) 4 each,

    Mudukulatur (Ramanathapuram Dist), Mettupalayam (Coimbatore Dist), K bridge (Nilgiris Dist), Peravurani (Thanjavur Dist), Bhavanisagar (Erode Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kamatchipuram (Dindigul Dist), Krishnagiri (Krishnagiri Dist), Poonamallee (Tiruvallur Dist), Udumalpet (Tiruppur Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist) 3 each,

    Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist), Mylam AWS (Villupuram Dist), Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist), Uthangarai (Krishnagiri Dist), Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist), Usilampatti (Madurai Dist), Kadaladi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Uthagamandalam AWS (Nilgiris Dist), Sivaganga (Sivaganga Dist), Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist), Kovilpatti (Toothukudi Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Vedasandur (Dindigul Dist), Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist) 2 each,

    DGP office (Chennai Dist), Taramani arg (Kancheepuram Dist), Periyakulam (Theni Dist), Paramakudi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Sivagiri (Tirunelveli Dist), Madurai south (Madurai Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Sathyamangalam (Erode Dist), Parangipettai (Cuddalore Dist), Kvk kattukuppam arg (Kancheepuram Dist), Manamelkudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Cheyyur (Kancheepuram Dist), Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram Dist), Rayakottah (Krishnagiri Dist), Sholavandan (Madurai Dist), Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar Dist), Tirumayam (Pudukkottai Dist), Kamudhi arg (Ramanathapuram Dist), Watrap (Virudhunagar Dist), Viralimalai (Pudukkottai Dist), Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Paramathivelur (Namakkal Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Tondi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist), R.s.mangalam (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kalavai AWS (Vellore Dist), Sankarapuram (Villupuram Dist), Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist) 1 each.

  23. So humid outside.
    Temp-31.9’C but looking like 37-38’C.
    Clouds are started to dissipate and new clouds making up the entrance to chennai from east.

  24. Susu..high-level plan for KEA Cup Cricket match ready.. ๐Ÿ™‚
    Let us make ppl like Kea,Master,Novak,Anna,Vela,Shankaran,etc. as Umpires/Scorers ๐Ÿ˜€
    Young Guns like me,you,Sel,Jon,Paul,Deepak,GTS,Mr.Chandra Mouli,Jeetu,etc. will play..
    Nunga Boys vs SS Group (or) Nunga Vs. Meena…something like that.. ๐Ÿ™‚

  25. Instead of just joking about this, how about we actually plan for this haha. We have expert planners Novak and Gopal, but are they cricket fans ?!?!

    • If u ask Novak to organize, he will come with HEAD gears..Kea terrace’la naduvla NET katti vilayada solvaru.. ha ha ๐Ÿ˜€

    • Not joking..im hvng this idea for a long time..i even askd Kea to consider KEA Marathon..but it vl take time to plan, organize and get necessary approvals..it has to be taken care of by Anna..

    • Susa- Tennis only since Jan 2006, never held a tennis racquet before that..Right from 1st std, its been Cricket only..Have represented my School MCN Hr.Sec school, Habibullah Road, and AM Jain College in Cricket.

      Dash, its really a good idea to have some sporting action some time later..Will speak to Kea with others and can have some fun with interested bloggers..

  26. Kea- That’s a good idea thrown by dash, why not we plan something like a sporting day–Kea -sports day.Do think about it.

  27. Paul..Anybody can play for any team they wish..not based on ur locality..
    UPS Novak..hope u got that..u can play for Meena too ๐Ÿ˜›

  28. The India Met Department has said in its outlook that the monsoon on the retreat will continue to bring moderate to heavy rain for the south peninsula until October 4.

    But the US-based models expect the rains to linger until October 10, especially along coastal Karnataka, Kerala and over adjoining south Tamil Nadu.

    They also maintain the watch for the North-East monsoon (winter monsoon)to arrive over peninsular India on time. The normal onset window is October 15 to 20.

    http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=39&start=400

  29. Blog is again gone to silent mode, after active morning session, may be all of them resting because of heavy meals that they had

  30. “If he meets Shiva his identity will be revealed”
    If that happens, it will be revealed only to him..and on a condition that it shud not be revealed to anybody else..especially to u ๐Ÿ˜€

  31. The El Niรฑo (Warm Phase) normally helps the NEM by increasing the easterlies and its moisture, while on the other hand, the La Nina (Cool phase) normally retards NEM. Observations have also showed that during El Niรฑo years the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) was normal to above normal i.e. the 2006 NEM was above normal due to El Niรฑo. During La Nina years, the NEM was below normal .i.e. the 2003 NEM was deficient and it was a drought year.

  32. NEM can be predicted by the outcome of Southwest monsoon. If the summer monsoon is poor, the winter monsoon would be good and vice versa. This is because SWM and NEM are correlated negatively.

  33. In the present study 110 years (1900-2010) data isused for studying correlative effects between southwest(June-September) and northeast monsoon (October โ€“December) rainfall over Tamil Nadu. For the period of different solar cycles, we compute the correlation co efficients using Spearman Rank technique. A correlation analysis between the two rainfallseries revealed that the southwest monsoon rainfall is negatively correlated with that of the northeast monsoon rainfall. That is, an excess or deficit of southwest monsoonrainfall over this region is generally followed byan opposite tendency in the northeast monsoon rainfall. It also reveals that the rainfall in the two monsoonsis not independent of each other. The negative rainfall relationship can be a useful tool in foreshadowing the northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu, which is of considerable economic importance for this region.
    More on

    http://www.environmentaljournal.org/1-4/ujert-1-4-23.pdf

  34. My probable names for the Kea premiere league teams are:

    Nungambakkam Eddies
    Tiruvottiyur Surfers
    Ambattur Leewards
    Meenambakkam Stormers
    KKNagar Twisters
    OMR Torrents
    Anna Nagar Deluges
    Mount Road Rainbows
    Tambaram Torrs
    Triplicane Hurricanes

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