180 thoughts on “KeaWeather WordPress blog will close down on midnight of 31/12/13

  1. If you look at Pentad 6 OLR that doesnt look too good for January 2nd system. 

    We have just gone past pentad 5. That shows the spatial extent of the disturbance that is there  near the equator. 

    Compare pentad 6 with pentad 0 when we had our last set of rains and you can see how the violet colour is spread across the equator into our Bay of Bengal basin.

  2. Once the cyclone near NW Australia approaches the coast in next 48 hrs, a good convection would consolidate E/SE of srilanka (see image). This system would cross the coast in between SL & Central TN around JAN 4-5.

  3. ramisettisrinivasa am_met I am just thinking that might be better for them because you can get to know people personally as well as share meteorological opinions. I could be wrong we will know by Dec 31.

  4. am_metramisettisrinivasa after crossing 1000 comments per day, blog is becoming too slow for posting the comments. we have seen at the time of madi & Lehar.

    one more thing they might ask complete personal profile including contact numbers, e-mail, face book accounts etc., in order to control some unnecessary comments posted by some bloggers.

  5. ramisettisrinivasa am_met Right. Thats my opinion as well. They want to be seen as responsible blog. So that will fit in well with their plans. Personal details become mandatory.

  6. What I dont like about this current tropical disturbance in the south bay is that part of its interaction is with land as well. Its not fully developing in the sea. Part of the eastern quadrant is interacting with land over Indonesia.

    How that will affect its eventual intensity is unknown.

  7. KeaWeather This should not be closed down as it is informatively creative and practically observant on minute by minute analysis, arguments, conclusions, this should continue on an another refined and redefined platform, best wishes for yet another grater status.

  8. 20knts shear keeping away the system from intensification… shear may decrease in next 24 hrs.so tis disturbance will start developing after shear going down

  9. Selvanfun am_met Given this position of the monsoon trough I see this disturbance hitting the monsoon trough in BOB parallel to Nagapattinam. Comments ?

  10. ramisettisrinivasa am_met Selvanfun The location of the monsoon trough was the missing element. Once that was known it follows.

  11. am_met ramisettisrinivasa Selvanfun  if it develops into a big system,then it has some chance…but hpa extending west further from east will keep west movement   http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/COMPSTEERIOCN_0z/f84.gif

  12. Selvanfun am_met ramisettisrinivasa Selvan – Do you believe that the cyclones that did not give us the rainfall we deserved damaged the position of the monsoon trough ?

  13. am_metramisettisrinivasaSelvanfun when system forms pressure would be reduced below 1012mb.

    I think we need to see the ridge line. systems can’t move above the ridge line, unless there is break in the ridge.

  14. ramisettisrinivasa am_met Selvanfun And we are not talking of systems moving above ridge line but intensifying along the monsoon trough.

  15. Rami- The location of the monsoon trough is seasonal. Yes when a system forms along the monsoon trough pressure will change. However it does not affect the location of MT.

  16. Anyways last post before going to bed.
    My concerns regarding this system
    1) Its spent some time interacting with land in Indonesia. So how that affects this will be interesting to see
    2) SST as it approaches TN coast is not best.
    3) Coupled vortices(one in northern and southern hemisphere) will mean it will move slowly. 
    4) Its in a area of high shear.
    Any others ?

  17. am_met looks like u r not updating regarding 850 mb vorticity. southern hemisphere vorticity already weakened. and northern hemisphere is strengthening. also wind shear also decreasing slowly.

    in next 48 hrs good convection would develop in south central BOB in E/SE to srilanka (see image)

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

    image: http://s15.postimg.org/63i391mnf/jan_14_system.gif

  18. ramisettisrinivasa am_met Unless it completely disappears the southern vortex will make this system move  slowly. Its not enough that it just weakens. 

    If you see the upper level divergence map the convection of system is coupled above and below the equator. In fact greater upper level divergence is seen in the southern hemisphere(20).

  19. ramisettisrinivasa am_met Ditto for the lower level convergence as well. Zonal winds(westerlies I believe) are converging in the southern hemisphere better than the northern hemisphere(again a 20).

  20. am_metramisettisrinivasa once the NW Australian cyclone touches the coast, each parameter would become favorable for BOB system.

  21. ramisettisrinivasa Look at your upper level divergence. You get a 40 along the east coast. And excellent lower level convergence. No wonder they call America the land of the opportunity !

  22. am_metramisettisrinivasa present upper level westerly low is getting good moisture inflow from Atlantic ocean. For that reason we r receiving heavy rains since morning.

  23. Good morning friends. KEA – why to close this blog which is dedicated to weather? Many meaningful chats happening in this blog. The information provided is unknown to many. If planning to move to a newer platform wherein more freedom on topics, then the dedication will get diluted-in my opinion. Pl think over

  24. cool weather outside radar is clear now but 2011 today date cyclone thane giving heavy rain to pudhucherry including Chennai but this year its late to January 1st week lets hope for best

  25. Good morning to all 

    The upper level divergence map is telling of the extent of the divergence. It’s now touching the borders of Sri Lanka. However the strongest upper level divergence is still in the southern hemisphere touching some parts of Indonesia. That’s a concern. 

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

    The system is less convectively coupled than last 6 hours. The southern hemisphere vorticity is slowly disappearing. However the northern hemisphere vorticity has not increased significantly. 

    Shear tendency is still present over much of the system.

  26. Low level convergence is a shock. There is nothing left in the northern hemisphere of any significance. Shear has to go down for system to intensify.

  27. Dear Kea Bloggers,
    Good Morning..Ungalaukku oru happy news!..these are the last 2 days of blogging in WordPress..hence everybody is allowed to post non-weather topics to share their feelings, experiences, wishes, etc.
    Thanks
    Kea Admin Team

  28. Good morning to all.
    As of now system is have less convective clouds in bay then yesterday and situated at south TN and central SL latitude.
    Lets hope the best new year with rain by this system.

  29. ” hey ODM… Bigger things coming up so not been able to work on this… But why don’t you do it! we can put it up as a nice article.. :) Susa might have some radar images for reference”
    Sailu…enakku appove mild’a doubtu vandhudhu!!! :-D

  30. I Wish You a Advance Happy New Year to
    Pradeep john
    Novaknole
    Paul abraham
    Velayutham and all bloggers.
    Lets all pray 2014 will be a good rains like 2005 for overall Tamilnadu and make all happy.

  31. Dear KEA 
    Attn: Admins & Moderators.
    “KeaWeather WordPress blog will close down on midnight of 31/12/13″. This means he blog will closed / shut down completely or any other progress going on ?

    Why u people are creating suspense like this……

    Whatever it may be whether permanently closing the blog or planning something else, please keep inform to our bloggers, it very difficult to consume this suspense, what will happen to me and our bloggers after 31st Dec 2013.

    Anyway thanking you all for wonderful support, knowledge shared to us.

    Lets hope kea will come with some thing different.

    Thanking You once again.
    S. Velayudham

  32. Hey Good Boy Paul..they are going to close Kea blog..what will u do after that? This is a blessing in disguise for u..u can concentrate on ur studies hereafter :-D

  33. We are in the post lunch session now ( I hope everyone has had their meal). Its a good time to look at the chakkar(suttum) chart i.e. vorticity chart of our beloved system in the bay 

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

    The southern hemisphere vorticity for all purposes gone for good. The northern one is too feeble.

    Upper level divergence is not of any interest. I guess our  tropical wave just got dissipated. But if you look at the shear it does not look so bad.

    If you look at the OLR at the current time – its just what a diffuse horizontal band. 

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm

    Satellite picture still looks good 

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-irc.htm. But beyond that unless it reorganizes (as there is minimal shear to the east of the system) I am afraid interaction with land in Indonesia has upset the balance of the system.

  34. Kea’s Plan: With increasing popularity, we have to move to the next level..close this blog and open a Weather channel !

  35. am_met Its a double whammy for Delhi, with the temp dropping low along with rains. The entire North India is facing its first major cold wave of the season

  36. pypkmsrikanth am_met Nice to see your comment after a relatively long absence. Yes we got a call from someone in New Delhi who said its just unbearably cold. Western disturbance and a very strong one at that.

  37. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm

    The violet parts  of OLR representing deep convection are almost negligible. Since MJO signals do not travel east to west any support for this easterly wave from MJO is almost ruled out(current MJO signal is in phase 5 in MTC about to enter western pacific in phase 6) . 

     So if one were to ask the question where will the convection arise from ? 
    Since easterly waves travel east to west one would be tempted  for some convection from the east. 

    Looking at the OLR forecast for the first week of January 

    there is only a weak signal light blue over the bay of bengal.

  38. am_met pypkmsrikanth 

    Boss- I was there in Delhi and Amritsar from 25th till 28 th..While Delhi min temps was around 8 deg, Amritsar was much cooler at around 5 degrees..Was a different experience in those conditions for a guy from Madras.

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