Environment protection etc seems to be pure hog wash & lip service even in educational institutions. Say one thing and do another, hypocrites. We simply don’t care for the tress & the earth.
The articles says there is a Act for Tree protection !!! Ridiculous . Like SEBI etc who keep coming up with plethora of laws but scams dont seem to end
Low Humidity and dew point, Gentle breeze and Maximum sub 30 C , less traffic and people in the city.
Chennai looks like heaven, while many folks look at heavens for help for water.
It is surprising that the generally inaccurate weather forecasting agency Accuweather predicts showers and rains and gives a chance close to 100%, while others forecast are not as promising. http://www.bing.com/weather/forecast?q=chennai%20weather&unit=C&FORM=DTPWEA
Pradeep John – Anna Nagar WestSir all here are desperately depending and believing that there will be Rains at the last.The GFS model forecast in the Kea weather site – forecast model shows as per my understanding rainfall possiabliaties to southern and our parts from 3rd Jan to 9th Jan, and at this juncture, this could become the Savior Life line to innumerable families livelihood.Sir I request your opinion.
Fantastic climate in chennai today as if we are in some hill station. Now I am not complaining about deficient rains any more. Let us enjoy these type of climatic conditions which are rare for chennai standards.
Selvanfun Looks like this system is organizing itself. Healthy upper level divergence and decent low level convergence. Most of that seems to be in the southern hemisphere though. You expect this to break up into and move north westwards ?
Selvanfun At present SOI is 4.3 and in decreasing trend for the past few days. SOI within +/-5 would target AP/TN. In order the system to target SL/GOM/STN the value of SOI to be in between +5 to +10/ -5 to -10.
OMG… SOI fell down by 1.7 points and reached +2.6 within 24 hrs. It should still come down below “0” in order the present disturbance (negative OLR) in SE BOB to survive and reach TN.
MJO factor also supportive at present. Need to watch what would be in store for the coming days for TN.
Oooh boy there is a system in the south bay with decent upper level divergence(20).
The anti symmetric location of this system with the one in the southern hemisphere make it appear like a MRG. From the 850 mb map it looks like they are symmetric making them seem like ERs.
Circulation is average.
Low level convergence is sort of diffuse. Not cohesive yet.
So with MJO “modulating” this system one can estimate this might reach around the 1st of Jan 2014. But again estimates not more than 1 cm with this. Even that’s a lot.
ramisettisrinivasa Rami after this NEM season is over we will spend some time discussing the meridional propagation of MJO. I believe there is some research to show that even with MJO signal not present in our basin it still modulates rainfall further west via upper air circulation. So sometime in the new year I will catch up with you on that topic. OK ?
ramisettisrinivasa am_met We just need to break down our NEM season and look at MJO patterns during that period and compare it previous years. Then we will see if there is a correlation at all. For instance I want to know if MJO being in phase 6 in the western pacific we ever had good NEM rains. Then we can establish some patterns.
am_metramisettisrinivasa forget about frequency and wave numbers. Weather experts see SOI value to understand Elnino, Lanino & Enso pattern of the given year on “LONG RANGE”.
However I strongly believe SOI can be used to see on short range on daily basis also.
ramisettisrinivasa am_met The way I see SOI is more like long range climactic changes rather than short term. But you could make a case for it. Are you saying that SOI impacts steering winds of a cyclone ?
am_metramisettisrinivasa not only cyclones. any rainfall pattern originating from BOB (focusing more only BOB). SOI can be utilized on short range basis also.
current scenario is like tis … superb westerly flow twrds southern periphrey .. tis system will develop slowly wen shear relaxes http://s28.postimg.org/vviz3e1hp/LATEST.jpg
Selvanfun am_met Right so westerlies are feeding that side of the system. It seems to be in a shear area. If it survives then it goes into an area where SSTs are low. So expectations are low. If it exceeds and give us 4-5 cms I will buy you lunch. Any place you want OK ?
ramisettisrinivasa am_met Ok. If you can show how SOI can be used for WD I will be glad to learn from you. Remember wheat is winter crop. So some good rains means healthy wheat harvest.
ramisettisrinivasa am_met Maybe but I dont think this particular WD originated in the north Atlantic. I think it came from the Artic Sea or whatever is the water body above Russia.
am_metramisettisrinivasa WD travelling from Europe through Asia, which in turn enter directly from northern Atlantic ocean from? Of course they get feeded from mediaterian, black and Arabian oceans on their way.
KeaWeather Archives 
but not officially declared…
NAVGEM models expecting a disturbance in s.bay in next 5 days… but tis is not supported by other models.
gfs,ecmwf and cfs showing a strong wave creeping into s.bay during late 1st week of jan…
cfs: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2013122512/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_ind_2.png
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=59&PANEL=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
GFS:
Selvanfun it was boxing day, then new year, now around Pongal. Next maybe Republic day
KeaWeather Selvanfun no . actually nothing was expected for boxing day…
At the best case some light showers were expected. We will surely have some rains in January but the key is to keep expectations low.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/trees-face-the-axe-at-chennai-colleges/article5501653.ece
Environment protection etc seems to be pure hog wash & lip service even in educational institutions. Say one thing and do another, hypocrites. We simply don’t care for the tress & the earth.
The articles says there is a Act for Tree protection !!! Ridiculous . Like SEBI etc who keep coming up with plethora of laws but scams dont seem to end
pypkmsrikanth yeah but tat wont be the case here…
More Clouds closure towards the coast, The questions is whether we will receive rain ? ? ?
s_velayudham
These are not rain clouds
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/qpe.htm
Either hope it will rain, or it will rain hope for bloggers…
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/SOS-54-years-ago-warned-about-vanishing-glaciers/articleshow/27912295.cms
As of now sunny with high clouds and some cumulus clouds in karaikal.
How chennai is.
where can i get the maximum rainfall intensity data (mm/hr) for chennai. There are daily average data, i would like to have max 1 hour data.
Zero is the answer. Did you mean past data?
Accuweather based on GFS predicts 100 mm in 1st week of January 2014
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/january-weather/206671?monyr=1/1/2014&view=table
Good evening to all.
Kea metsite started working now after 5 days.
mouliambatturonly when it rains u will find people flocking here – it is ironical though
No chance of rain now but lets hope for rain atleast jan 1st week.
Low Humidity and dew point, Gentle breeze and Maximum sub 30 C , less traffic and people in the city.
Chennai looks like heaven, while many folks look at heavens for help for water.
It is surprising that the generally inaccurate weather forecasting agency Accuweather predicts showers and rains and gives a chance close to 100%, while others forecast are not as promising.
http://www.bing.com/weather/forecast?q=chennai%20weather&unit=C&FORM=DTPWEA
Pradeep John – Anna Nagar WestSir all here are desperately depending and believing that there will be Rains at the last.The GFS model forecast in the Kea weather site – forecast model shows as per my understanding rainfall possiabliaties to southern and our parts from 3rd Jan to 9th Jan, and at this juncture, this could become the Savior Life line to innumerable families livelihood.Sir I request your opinion.
Good night to all.
Pradeep John – Anna Nagar WestAccuweather’s precipitation forecast is highly inaccurate from what I had observed.
good morning to all
very much cool outside with no clouds at all but chances of rain in 1st week of January lets hope for best
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
no more clouds over srilanka_________________http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/oscat_images/cur_golf/zooms/WMBas209.png
bay picking some clouds
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/llw.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
Jan rains will be a washout of crops for delta….with the damage progressively increasing as the month progresses.
Any rain after Maasi (i.e. after March 15) should be better…then anyway Mango farmers will complain that flowers in Mango trees are washed off.
Fantastic climate in chennai today as if we are in some hill station. Now I am not complaining about deficient rains any more. Let us enjoy these type of climatic conditions which are rare for chennai standards.
if a system form there in s.ind ocean, v will hav more increased chance of system in s.bay… http://s12.postimg.org/5whu52jl9/3_A_globe_vis.jpg
In karaikal its sunny with less clouds.
http://tamil.oneindia.in/news/tamilnadu/ne-monsoon-tamil-nadu-the-worst-18-years-190340.html
now the condition is sunny here with no clouds
forca predicts no rain for nagapattinam in next five days
cola predicts light rain for Chennai next 7days
jma forecast shows the system hitting lanka http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201312.D2612_tr0.png
Selvanfun Looks like this system is organizing itself. Healthy upper level divergence and decent low level convergence. Most of that seems to be in the southern hemisphere though. You expect this to break up into and move north westwards ?
Selvanfun At present SOI is 4.3 and in decreasing trend for the past few days. SOI within +/-5 would target AP/TN. In order the system to target SL/GOM/STN the value of SOI to be in between +5 to +10/ -5 to -10.
SOI text: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
Hoping for the weather to change from Jan 2nd.
OMG… SOI fell down by 1.7 points and reached +2.6 within 24 hrs. It should still come down below “0” in order the present disturbance (negative OLR) in SE BOB to survive and reach TN.
MJO factor also supportive at present. Need to watch what would be in store for the coming days for TN.
OLR: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
MJO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Oooh boy there is a system in the south bay with decent upper level divergence(20).
The anti symmetric location of this system with the one in the southern hemisphere make it appear like a MRG. From the 850 mb map it looks like they are symmetric making them seem like ERs.
Circulation is average.
Low level convergence is sort of diffuse. Not cohesive yet.
So with MJO “modulating” this system one can estimate this might reach around the 1st of Jan 2014. But again estimates not more than 1 cm with this. Even that’s a lot.
am_met convergence also looks good. 850 mb vorticity improving.
convergence: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
850 mb vorticity: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
I see some sort of vorticity in the southern hemisphere in the 850 hpa wind but nothing concrete in the northern hemisphere yet.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_850wind.htm.
Even that minimal vorticity in the northern hemisphere is just above the southern vortex. It does appear then that its symmetric.
am_met vorticity vs hpa?
ramisettisrinivasa am_met Just to see if there is any circulation in the 850 hpa wind. It appears there is.
am_met
looks like minimal system with good rainfall reaching by 3rd jan east to Srilanka?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_850wind.htm
ramisettisrinivasa am_met I was afraid of that because you see if you look at the SST it does tell you where the rain will go.
I mean this one does not hide the location at all. Its very much clear.
am_metramisettisrinivasa u r right. it looks system would give good rainfall till nagapattinam belt by missing Chennai.
ramisettisrinivasa Rami after this NEM season is over we will spend some time discussing the meridional propagation of MJO. I believe there is some research to show that even with MJO signal not present in our basin it still modulates rainfall further west via upper air circulation. So sometime in the new year I will catch up with you on that topic. OK ?
am_metramisettisrinivasa its ok
ramisettisrinivasa am_met We just need to break down our NEM season and look at MJO patterns during that period and compare it previous years. Then we will see if there is a correlation at all. For instance I want to know if MJO being in phase 6 in the western pacific we ever had good NEM rains. Then we can establish some patterns.
am_metramisettisrinivasa Watching only MJO is not a definite solution to monitor the BOB systems. By adding SOI parameter would give clear idea.
For Nisha 2008 MJO is in phase 6
& Thane-2011 MJO just entered phase 6.
ramisettisrinivasa am_met See SOI is a interseasonal oscillation ?
am_metramisettisrinivasa forget about frequency and wave numbers. Weather experts see SOI value to understand Elnino, Lanino & Enso pattern of the given year on “LONG RANGE”.
However I strongly believe SOI can be used to see on short range on daily basis also.
ramisettisrinivasa am_met The way I see SOI is more like long range climactic changes rather than short term. But you could make a case for it. Are you saying that SOI impacts steering winds of a cyclone ?
good morning folks:)
am_metramisettisrinivasa not only cyclones. any rainfall pattern originating from BOB (focusing more only BOB). SOI can be utilized on short range basis also.
possibility of a dep/cyclone over SW bay around 2nd jan
jon mount link is not opening
jon mount its ok. I found the link.
jon mount Its mostly benefitting SL not us.
current scenario is like tis … superb westerly flow twrds southern periphrey .. tis system will develop slowly wen shear relaxes http://s28.postimg.org/vviz3e1hp/LATEST.jpg
Selvanfun Can you show the westerly flow in a weather map ?
am_met Selvanfun nothing but the normal low level westerly flow tat happens near equator..
am_met wait i wil show u a pic.
bay sst http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/52be49a0_67c8_0.png
am_met Selvanfun http://s30.postimg.org/5d922s0m9/WAVE000.gif
Selvanfun Problem is when it approaches us. By “us” I mean chennai and immediate environs.
am_met Selvanfun yes. even 26.6c wont favour in a big way.. lets see ..1st thing is tat shear shld get offset soon..
Selvanfun am_met Right so westerlies are feeding that side of the system. It seems to be in a shear area. If it survives then it goes into an area where SSTs are low. So expectations are low. If it exceeds and give us 4-5 cms I will buy you lunch. Any place you want OK ?
sst near system is ranging from 28 to 29c
Selvanfun Typical for those latitudes anyways.
Selvanfun Circulation is evident upto the 700 HPA wind map.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_700wind.htm
am_met Selvanfun yeah no doubt… circulation is verymuch seen at low level.. http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/oscat_images/cur_golf/zooms/WMBas221.png
Selvanfun am_met OK Circulation seen between 925 Hpa and 700 HPA wind. Below and above that not visible.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_925wind.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_850wind.htm
M 5.4 Earthquake in canary island triggered volcanic eruptions..
am_met Selvanfun it will be a significant one soon.
Selvanfun Decent overall convergence but most of the bigger ones are in the southern hemisphere.
Selvanfun For this to intensify you need two things going
1) Favourable SST
2) Minimal wind shear.
Neither of which seems favorable.
Looks like a major western disturbance headed towards Kashmir and North India.
am_metSelvanfun forget abt big/small. we need some rains.
ramisettisrinivasa am_met Selvanfun We may need it but that doesnt mean we will get it.
am_met same time u r not interested in SE BOB trough?
am_metramisettisrinivasaSelvanfun first time after 30w, SOI come down below +5. now we can see magic of SOI.
ramisettisrinivasa am_met I am interested in all Indian extreme weather related events.
am_met Selvanfun most of them concentrated to our system http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/isotherm.jpg
ramisettisrinivasa am_met Selvanfun Great. Glad to see your theory in action ! Hope others apply your theory as well.
am_metramisettisrinivasa first time after 30w, SOI come down below +5. now we can see magic of SOI. We can expect some rainfall for TN in coming days.
am_met ramisettisrinivasa Selvanfun lol
ramisettisrinivasa am_met Are you using SOI for western disturbances as well ? Did you predict using SOI this latest WD ?
am_metramisettisrinivasa I do see majorly with tropical BOB. If we become perfect in one region, we can apply for other regions also.
ramisettisrinivasa am_met Ok. If you can show how SOI can be used for WD I will be glad to learn from you. Remember wheat is winter crop. So some good rains means healthy wheat harvest.
am_metramisettisrinivasa NAO (north Atlantic oscillation) might be related to WD?
ramisettisrinivasa am_met Maybe but I dont think this particular WD originated in the north Atlantic. I think it came from the Artic Sea or whatever is the water body above Russia.
am_metramisettisrinivasa WD travelling from Europe through Asia, which in turn enter directly from northern Atlantic ocean from? Of course they get feeded from mediaterian, black and Arabian oceans on their way.