179 thoughts on “NEM rains have ended

  1. At the best case some light showers were expected. We will surely have some rains in January but the key is to keep expectations low.

  2. http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/trees-face-the-axe-at-chennai-colleges/article5501653.ece

    Environment protection etc seems to be pure hog wash & lip service even in educational institutions. Say one thing and do another, hypocrites. We simply don’t care for the tress & the earth.

    The articles says there is a Act for Tree protection !!! Ridiculous . Like SEBI etc who keep coming up with plethora of laws  but scams dont seem to end

  3. where can i get the maximum rainfall intensity data (mm/hr) for chennai. There are daily average data, i would like to have max 1 hour data.

  4. Low Humidity and dew point, Gentle breeze and Maximum sub 30 C , less traffic and people in the city.
    Chennai looks like heaven, while many folks look at heavens for help for water.
    It is surprising that the generally inaccurate weather forecasting agency Accuweather predicts showers and rains and gives a chance close to 100%, while others forecast are not as promising.

  5. Pradeep John – Anna Nagar WestSir all here are desperately depending and believing that there will be Rains at the last.The GFS model forecast in the  Kea weather site – forecast model shows as per my understanding rainfall possiabliaties to southern and our parts from 3rd Jan to 9th Jan, and at this juncture, this could become the Savior Life line to innumerable families livelihood.Sir I request your opinion.

  6. Jan rains will be a washout of crops for delta….with the damage progressively increasing as the month progresses.

    Any rain after Maasi (i.e. after March 15) should be better…then anyway Mango farmers will complain that flowers in Mango trees are washed off.

  7. Fantastic climate in chennai today as if we are in some hill station. Now I am not complaining about deficient rains any more.  Let us enjoy these type of climatic conditions which are rare for chennai standards.

  8. if a system form there in s.ind ocean, v will hav more increased chance of system in s.bay…  http://s12.postimg.org/5whu52jl9/3_A_globe_vis.jpg

  9. jma forecast shows the system hitting lanka  http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201312.D2612_tr0.png

  10. Selvanfun Looks like this system is organizing itself. Healthy upper level divergence and decent low level convergence. Most of that seems to be in the southern hemisphere though. You expect this to break up into and move north westwards ?

  11. OMG… SOI fell down by 1.7 points and reached +2.6 within 24 hrs. It should still come down below “0” in order the present disturbance (negative OLR) in SE BOB to survive and reach TN.

    MJO factor also supportive at present. Need to watch what would be in store for the coming days for TN.

    OLR: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
    SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
    MJO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

  12. Oooh boy there is a system in the south bay with decent upper level divergence(20).

    The anti symmetric location of this system with the one in the southern hemisphere make it appear like a MRG.  From the 850 mb map it looks like they are symmetric making them seem like ERs. 
    Circulation is average.
    Low level convergence is sort of diffuse. Not cohesive yet. 
    So with MJO “modulating” this system  one can estimate this might reach around the 1st of Jan 2014. But again estimates not more than 1 cm with this. Even that’s a lot.

  13. ramisettisrinivasa am_met  I was afraid of that because you see if you look at the SST it does tell you where the rain will go. 

    I mean this one does not hide the location at all. Its very much clear.

  14. am_metramisettisrinivasa u r right. it looks system would give good rainfall till nagapattinam belt by missing Chennai.

  15. ramisettisrinivasa  Rami after this NEM season is over we will spend some time discussing the meridional propagation of MJO. I believe there is some research to show that even with MJO signal not present in our basin it still modulates rainfall  further west  via upper air circulation. So sometime in the new year I will catch up with you on that topic. OK ?

  16. ramisettisrinivasa am_met We just need to break down our NEM season and look at MJO patterns during that period and compare it previous years. Then we will see if there is a correlation at all. For instance I want to know if MJO being in phase 6 in the western pacific we ever had good NEM rains. Then we can establish some patterns.

  17. am_metramisettisrinivasa Watching only MJO is not a definite solution to monitor the BOB systems. By adding SOI parameter would give clear idea.

    For Nisha 2008 MJO is in phase 6
    & Thane-2011 MJO just entered phase 6.

  18. am_metramisettisrinivasa forget about frequency and wave numbers. Weather experts see SOI value to understand Elnino, Lanino & Enso pattern of the given year on “LONG RANGE”. 

    However I strongly believe SOI can be used to see on short range on daily basis also.

  19. ramisettisrinivasa am_met The way I see SOI is more like long range climactic changes rather than short term. But you could make a case for it. Are you saying that SOI impacts steering winds of a cyclone ?

  20. am_metramisettisrinivasa not only cyclones. any rainfall pattern originating from BOB (focusing more only BOB). SOI can be utilized on short range basis also.

  21. Selvanfun am_met Right so westerlies are feeding that side of the system. It seems to be in a shear area. If it survives then it goes into an area where SSTs are low. So expectations are low. If it exceeds and give us 4-5 cms I will buy you lunch. Any place you want OK ?

  22. Selvanfun For this to intensify you need two things going 
    1) Favourable SST
    2) Minimal wind shear.
    Neither of which seems favorable.

  23. am_metramisettisrinivasa first time after 30w, SOI come down below +5. now we can see magic of SOI. We can expect some rainfall for TN in coming days.

  24. am_metramisettisrinivasa I do see majorly with tropical BOB. If we become perfect in one region, we can apply for other regions also.

  25. ramisettisrinivasa am_met Ok. If you can show how SOI can be used for WD I will be glad to learn from you. Remember wheat is winter crop. So some good rains means healthy wheat harvest.

  26. ramisettisrinivasa am_met Maybe but I dont think this particular WD originated in the north Atlantic. I think it came from the Artic Sea or whatever is the water body above Russia.

  27. am_metramisettisrinivasa WD travelling from Europe through Asia, which in turn enter directly from northern Atlantic ocean from? Of course they get feeded from mediaterian, black and Arabian oceans on their way.

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