The much awaited New year system us likely to affect extreme south TN and Sri Lanka. Chance of any more rain for Chennai is very very low.
The much awaited New year system us likely to affect extreme south TN and Sri Lanka. Chance of any more rain for Chennai is very very low.
KeaWeather Archives 
kea god will help us with heavy rain before year end so keep hope alive and prayer also
north bay loose strength i think no system developing that place
Chennai had above normal rains from 2004 to 2009 and somewhat above in 2010 and 11. We really should not complain. Even At 125 cm this year, we got more rain than delhi, pune, hyderabad, ahmedabad, bangalore, coimbatore. Among the metros only mumbai and kolkata get more rains every year.
AnandKrishnamurthyThe problem is we have poor water storage capacity in the main city.. So, the catchment areas on the outskirts are critical for city water supply.
Sadly, theit storage level at the moment is poor.. So, Chennai is staring at a water crisis next summer..
Good morning to all.
Lets hope for rain in chennai next week by easterly wave atleast 3-5cm.
Today chillness is more than yesterday i think and temp may down to 18.lets c in Imd observations.
I am just putting up a URL that talks about the north east monsoon as well as easterly waves.
Srikanth, Selvan, Pradeep, Rami- These authors are speculating on the role of a western trough in trapping and transporting moisture from the ITCZ region of the southern hemisphere to the south east coast of India. Sounds incredible but realizable ?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/wea.37.02/pdf
AnandKrishnamurthy Dont ever compare our storage systems with others; ours is pathetic. Mumbai have great lakes and reservoirs.
AnandKrishnamurthy With no more rains; chennai tryst with water shortage on right track.
AnandKrishnamurthy
Anand..Madras City got consistent rains from 2005 and not 2004 as you have mentioned..The annual rainfall figures for Madras city in 2004 was 1197 mm…Out of which SWM recorded 420 mm, NEM 572 mm and the balance 264 mm from Jan till May.
2005 was the break through year so to say..Things were on the right track till 2011..
http://www.kea.metsite.com/rainfall.htm
AnandKrishnamurthy
And again the we see the trend of erratic rainfall pattern from 2012….Last year we got an annual total of 1021 mm only. Out of which SWM accounted for 408 mm and NEM accounted for 595.2 mm. Balance from Jan to May.
Don’t know how many of you are aware…2011 SWM and NEM were unique for Madras City..
2011–SWM–852.4 mm, NEM 852.4 mm….Neither it has happened before nor it is going to happen again..
The year total was 1836 mm.. After 2005, that was the best year we have had recently.
Interesting find Shiva, thanks for sharing
pypkmsrikanth
Sri, was just amazed, when I found that stat. Bullseye .
Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras. pypkmsrikanth
Yes..very very coincidental
Latest GFS is showing that system would rain both north and south of chennai.. but it is giving a miss to chennai alone..
Of course this is quite a long range forecast, We need to see how it changes over the period.
shiv_met Its too early to forecast on rains, but all I see is only easterlies until 5th of January. We could get a few mm on occasional days after New Year eve
pypkmsrikanth shiv_met Yes i would Agree for the rains.. but again as you said it is Too early. The other indications as of now are not favourable too..
The SST is in 26-27 deg.. Which is 1 short – The SST anamoly discouraging.
The the WV content has improved a litle near the south tamil nadu coast for past two days. but it is still dry near chennai
We have to see if comes atleast till nellore lattitude.
Currently as i see the dry air surrounding chennai is definetly keeping all the clouds away from chennai
Spot-on Foreca is slowly raising the towers for Chennai and Mahabs..Pondy to Nagai also to get light showers..mini easterly effect!
GFS changed forecast– More disappointment in store.
I think NEM 2013 is over and dead. But the chillness is really fantastic to experience.
sunspot13 dont have confidence in the easterlies?
shajaya-madip/ekkad sunspot13
Any easterlies on the way shankar?
sunspot13 Yes i thought so.. seeing some hovering south.. not sure if it will cross 11N though..
MJO entering phase 5, initiating active convection at maritime continent (OLR negative). In coming days this trough would enter SE BOB—>S BOB—->SW BOB and target SL, STN & GOM.
In order that trough to target NTN (around Chennai) SOI to come down below +5 (present value +8.1).
OLR:http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
MJO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
SOI text: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png
SOI graph: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png
if the models forecasts r to to believed, w.pacific may fuse bay of bengal by next week
jma predicting wet days for the1st week of 2014…
Good evening friends, Every system skipping Chennai – really pathetic! When so many of us are longing for rains, there are two cyclones on the southern hemisphere- god you are partisan!!!
Dear Friends
New system will form on 27th Dec – chennai luckiest day is 30th Dec this time
cyclone will target chennai as my predication guys . watch out for
i am tracking the way of cyclone just entering Our BOB
Hope this new year system bring at least 10 cm rain as Thane
its 5th time in this month that lammasingi(AP) visakhapatnam district recording 2 degree centigrade temperature
Thanks for the link. Data always speak..
Alert! Alert! :Buildup:
Low entering bay near Andaman on Dec 30th !!!
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/India?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=none&type=wind
http://magicseaweed.com/Northern-Indian-Ocean-Surf-Chart/43/?imageScale=pressure&chartType=PRATE#?chartType=PRATE&_suid=138755918796006411685880163553
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/20/winter-solstice-2013-shortest-day-of-the-year-but-sunset-already-creeping-later/
indian ocean looks beautiful with 2 huge cyclones close by….
guys am back in chennai on 29th December.. Wish and pray we get a strong system when am there..:)
Here is the latest sat image of the two S. Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones Amara & Bruce. What a sight they are. Fortunately or unfortunately both are not expected to make any major landfall during their lifetime.
towers are popping up!!!http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/chengfs.png
Chandra Newyork Virugambakkam Welcome back. Its pretty optimistic to expect a strong system to greet your arrival in Chennai, but surely a drizzle or two would be there with the easterlies expected to show up as a farewell for NEM 2013
originaldashman Dash, no model has been spot on this season.
pypkmsrikanth hi sri, majority of south indian cyclones won’t make landfall (due to more sea & less sea shore). Only few would make landfall either towards W/NW australia or madagaskar (african side).
ramisettisrinivasa pypkmsrikanth True, nature’s way of balancing with the amount of cyclones which get formed in the southern hemisphere it would be a castrotophe to be constantly hit with these systems
paul abraham enjoy ur xmas paul; clear blue skies for the rest of the year.
Chandra Newyork Virugambakkam wlcm back, clear blue skies for you on arrival.
anyone wants thane 2nd part wait for next one year
Two tropical cyclones with more than 96 kts in southern hemisphere.
1.Amara
2.Bruce..
Sorry sri…I haven’t not noticed ur post..
SenthilkumarP_Adm No issues Senthil, strangely most of us have ignored a developing Fujiwara scenario.
2013 NEM (Non Existence Monsoon) For TN and Chennai
SenthilkumarP_Adm No interest for chennai; somewhere down south.
some disturbance is developing in south east bay. last chance for some rains over chennai for this year. as venus goes retro from sunday, chances of wet spell are likely.
ss.
maisuhVenus goes retro? Astrology?
Bruce and Amara.. both were expected to weaken, but look at what happened
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/sasia/relvort850.html
some clouds over srilanka
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=iiir&CONT=asie&BIG=0&ZEIT=201311151800&UP=1
wow wat a power by two mini cyclone and many clouds over malay side so wet week ahead
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/images/irnm5.GIF
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Kashmir-mountains-receive-snowfall/articleshow/27724218.cms
Kashmir higher regions have received snowfall.
You can see the westerlies blowing at the mid latitudes here –
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/llw.htm
In fact you can see the westerlies in the high level winds as well.
http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Gulmarg/6day/mid
OLR map confirms it as well. The sole wet spot(violet) in the whole country !!!
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
Look at the matching cloud top temperature in Kashmir and Sri Lanka. Both around – 40 C.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/ctt24.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htm
WD affecting J&K
Good evening to all.
I am going to mayiladuthurai and coming back to chennai at 25th.
So i post the comment regarding nagapattinam weather situation 4m tmrw.
Let hope for rain in chennai from sunday night due to easterlies effect.
Good evening to all. I am going to mayiladuthurai and coming back to chennai at 25th. So i post the comment regarding nagapattinam weather situation 4m tmrw. Let hope for rain in chennai from sunday night due to easterlies effect.
Good evening to all. I am going to mayiladuthurai and coming back to chennai at 25th. So i post the comment regarding nagapattinam weather situation 4m tmrw. Let hope for rain in chennai from sunday night due to easterlies effect.
Sud T.nagar Only scattered showers over HP. The main theater of action is J and K.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/ALLINDIA_MAIN.HTM
Sud T.nagar http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatccd.htm
I think the WD is fairly widespread – covers JK, HP, Punjab, some parts of Rajasthan as well.
am_met Sud T.nagar
yes, a decent cold front associated with the WD
Sud T.nagar am_met Moisture content restricted to J & K only I think. If it does intensify then more areas may be covered. However I think this is a weak system.
Good evening to all. I am going to mayiladuthurai and coming back to chennai at 25th. So i post the comment regarding nagapattinam weather situation 4m tmrw. Let hope for rain in chennai from sunday night due to easterlies effect
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/hlw.htm
Westerlies blowing into the Indian Punjab and Haryana. This would be a very very cold night. Plus being the shortest day of the year.
am_metFor Chennai?
Shrinivas @Velachery am_met If you see down that map there are some westerlies blowing into southern AP as well. So maybe a cool night.
am_metShrinivas @VelacheryOh.. 😦 Already this cold weather has dampened our chances of any further rain..
I would rather prefer a rainy cold night than a misty cold night.. Never gonna realise it this NEM..
Shrinivas @Velachery am_met Chennai is not an interesting city weather wise. You basically have that 2 month period October 15 through December 15th where you have rain. Otherwise its just hot weather.
am_metShrinivas @VelacheryYeah.. It is unfortunate even the 2 months period has been reduced to a joke by Mother Nature for the last 2 years..
Shrinivas @Velachery am_met For a city to be interesting seasons must change. Where do you see seasons changing in Chennai ? Its basically a reasonably hot period from Feb to Mary end. Then a very hot period in April through June. Then some rains plus high humidity in July through September. Then rains followed by dry weather in January.
Anybody know of a URL that can track precipitation of snow using radar ? IMD does not seem to have a radar for mountain states of India.
am_met
This is our best bet..http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/ppz_ptl.gif
tracking snowfall is not done in India
at one stage ,madi had a ts tat reached an altitude of almost 20kms http://pmm.nasa.gov/node/943
Sud T.nagar am_met Saw that for Patiala. Thats still some distance away from where the WD is happening. How about any foreign radar sites ?
am_met Sud T.nagar
well, as far as I know, US radar sites track snow and I’ve been tracking US weather for the past 3-4 years as I go there yearly. Pakistan radar doesn’t function properly half of the time, so news and media reports and some from IMD might be our sources
Any one can post, Possibilities of rain next week
Sud T.nagar am_met No I mean any US radar site tracking Indian snowfall?
am_met Sud T.nagar
nope, no one tracks snowfall in India and Pakistan as it isn’t of that much importance. IMD does measure snowfall, but never seen it mention the amount
chennairain http://s3.amazonaws.com/rapgenius/1179245420NKxHR4.jpg
Sud T.nagar am_met Ok well it really is slow then. No action on the weather front whatsoever at least within our country. Why on earth cant IMD install a few radars specifically for mountain states ? They are aware that amount of snow covers influences SWM rainfall.
am_met Sud T.nagar
They can install radars at J&K and make the Kochi radar,Karaikal radar and some other ones public and available to all. Gujarat also badly needs a radar along with Karnataka and Chhatisgarh. Paradip has a cyclone detection radar which is not available to public 😦
Sud T.nagar am_met At least now they should learn after having had that disaster in Uttarakhand on June 16th this year. I think the radar image over Kedarnath would have been incredible. Not just red spots but huge red circles.
am_met Sud T.nagar
yep.. huge yellow/red bands. they got stuck over there
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82672&src=fb
Although hard to tell from static images its probably snowing hard right now –
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/llw.htm
HP seems to be coming under impact of WD and tiny parts of Uttarakhand.
Selvanfun Semma pic. Selva , we very extremely unfortunate to have missed it being so close …………………..:(
Biting cold wave conditions grip Himachal following fresh snowfall
SHIMLA: The biting cold wave sweeping most parts of Himachal further intensified on Saturday as high altitude areas and other higher reaches experienced fresh snowfall and strong velocity icy winds lashed the region.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Biting-cold-wave-conditions-grip-Himachal-following-fresh-snowfall/articleshow/27734927.cms
good morning bloggers
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=iiir&CONT=asie&BIG=0&ZEIT=201311151800&UP=1
Good morning to all. For the past 2 days, chillness has increased in Chennai too! Where from the rains will come? By the way, it appears Amara has pulled Bruce and both are going to merge! Though technically an interesting phenomena, they are going to dissipate with out any land fall. Easterlies are the only hope at present?
I think many people on this blog have speculated on the connection between pollution and monsoonal failures.
Well here is an article that has tried to understand the connection in a scientific manner.
Click to access full_jgr09.pdf
Chennai to get rains from New Year System.
Around 60 mm
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/january-weather/206671?monyr=1/1/2014&view=table
Hai good morning to all bloggers.
I came to nagapattinam dist
MAYILADUTHURAI.
Its some what cool and now its hot sun with some clouds at distant east.
ramisettisrinivasa – Rami both those articles I put up have a common author – Professor T N Krishnamurti at FSU . Outside India I think he is one of the few who is an expert on North East monsoon.