Selva–Its better you get back to your old profile name..Selvanfun,,,,Think Cyclone season is coming to a close..May be another one .Na-Mukh..Who knows.. 🙂
South Indian Ocean is becoming very active, there is a possible Fujiwara scenario developing going by the latest GFS Runs east of Madagascar around 20th of this month.
With regard to NEM2013 we would have to live with hope now as the rational mind says there is going to be nothing left for us (Chennai) until month end while South Tamil Nadu would get some decent showers after 20th December.
If one were to rake a decadal average chennai has had average to above avge annual rainfall for most years. Deficient years were really 2003, 2012 and in all probability 2013.
Arasu chennairain To be fair this season has been a forecaster’s nightmare for even experts with all available data. Models have had predictions change every run forget every other day
Let us not stop our discussions regarding weather though it’s almost the end of NEM. We can start discussing about other weather phenomena like fog formation, western disturbances, dwelling period conditions in Bay of Bengal right after the completion of brewing Cyclone season and even some internationally influencing weather stuffs like the El-nino’ and La-nina’, the Gulf of Mexico’s Loop current etc., in the days ahead…………………..
ArasuchennairainI don’t agree with you. Few bloggers in the name of belief have spoiled this blog and asking other bloggers to post only positive news rather not ready to accept the reality. Otherwise, no big prediction was made this year and everything went right.
Jupijove@Valasaravakkam wow…gud to see gfs forecast extending the rain wave further… http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_asia_384_10m_wnd_precip.gif
I think this blog should also promote car pooling/ public transport/Cycling etc. Directly contributing to improving the quality of life & indirectly the weather. esp as we seem to a have a very young blogging community here .
What do you guys think.
Navneeth It goes without saying that we should slowly look at going beyond a platform for weather enthusiasts, afterall weather is a part of the overall environment. Various environmental factors determine our weather. My feeling is we are still not big enough to create a viable platform, but there can be always a start and make in our way small steps to improving the quality of life.
By compulsion I had to opt for Public Transport the last couple of months, am not a typical Desk Job guy but I have managed to comfortably use Public Transport (Train, Bus, Share Auto, Auto etc) for all my work related travels. May be we can to start with opt for a “Public Transport Day” once a month when all bloggers attempt to use public transport as their contribution to reduce carbon imprint.
rajkmr gopal666 BN
Guys..lets be clear..all models this year have predicted the birth of systems fairly accurately..its only the intensity and path where there have erred..so lets not shy away from looking at the models from the Cyclogenesis perspective
Congratulations to KEA & team . I read the article in Kungumam book today. Good that KEA website is gaining some acknowledgement day by day and it is now becoming more popular. Hope it achieves more and more heights…. !!!!
We will have rain after our official NEM gets over..( i.e after DEC31st)…this year SWM monsoon gave more rain in october month in many states — Gujarat, rajasthan, & orissa – phailin..
The current prevailing cold air won’t allow any system or LPA to move above 10N…because as PJ told in magazine— night time is very cool & day time is also cool..
Sailu,
With the year coming to an end, how about gathering all the important events that happened during 2013 and summarizing them during year end? It can be anything like weather-related events that occurred (especially in and around us), happenings in our blog, etc.
Eg: of Weather-related events-First ever tornado reported in Chennai, tornado near Cuddalore during Madi, unusual/extreme weather phenomenma during SWM like hailstorms, squalls, wind front in radar, etc. (please don mention about NEM 2013..nothing happened)
Eg: of Blog events-Blog meets that happened during the year, spreading of Keaweather to various platforms, media reports, new avatar of Kea blog, etc.
Since all these details are not available to me, u or any of the mods can take this up and can be done every year.
Also, can you create a space which lists all the media coverage which Kea blog and/or its members have received so far? (from the archives) It used to exist in Kea metsite before. If Kea is not willing, this need not be done.
You can also can place all the photos of the blog members (like snaps/videos taken during blog meets and the meet with Ramanan sir)
Goog after noon guys… Seeing the WV content near our shores i dont see any precipitation in recent future. the conditions like SST and Other factors needs to be more favourable for any system to pour in rains in chennai. If you see the over all global scenario
We see that the TPW is on declining mode. Althought we can see some activity still in the MalaY peninsula. We can only hope that with some easterlies still predicted to affect us,,to bring all those moisture to our shores. Only time will upfold the mysteries which are in store for us.
Currently we are only sure of couple of dry days ahead.. definetly untill next week and by most theories.. untill this month end.
Hope for some good rains before NEM finally winds up !!!!! Let us pray for that to happen. Wish that Nature will at least favour this time for some rains like what we got from THANE 2011 ..
Hope we welcome 2014 with some big smile because of some good rains for entire TN !!!!!!
mary211271 pypkmsrikanth There is actually another Invest which is in North Indian which Rammb is tracking. Ocean http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO932013
You can see that mjo signal staying in the Indian ocean for some time now. Its got a good amplitude and making eastward progress into the maritime continent. Southern hemisphere Indian ocean is seeing a lot of storms. If this is how the signal had been in october then NEM 2013 would have been a different story. I know Selvanfun will say MJO is not the source of convection. If we had easterlies set up nicely then no need for MJO. However I believe all these things are strongly connected. They dont oppose each other. Positive MJO will enhance easterlies.
KeaWeather Archives 
as per bbc forcast chennai is expected to get light showers on 22 ,23,24 dec. hope we can get good rains
Probably tonight and early morning may well be the coldest night of the year so far..Real chill conditions prevailing now,,
Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras. Shiva, what is this gravatar?
shajaya-madip/ekkad Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras.
Brahmakumaris–Om Shanthi–World spiritual Organisation Logo,,..Let there be peace.
shajaya-madip/ekkad Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras.
http://www.brahmakumaris.com/
Shajaya..Log on to the link if you are interested,,Its better not to discuss other forums here..Thanks…Just thought of using the logo as Gravatar,
Selva–Its better you get back to your old profile name..Selvanfun,,,,Think Cyclone season is coming to a close..May be another one .Na-Mukh..Who knows.. 🙂
Towers are back in Cola
Pradeep John – Anna Nagar West are they expecting easterlies to come above 10 lat?
PJ / Sel, I have sent a email and if you have some information requested by me, kindly forward it. Thanks
shajaya-madip/ekkad Pradeep John – Anna Nagar West
Yes, that should be the case..At least there will be one more spell to wind of the season,, Hopefully.
shajaya-madip/ekkadwhich mail-id
South Indian Ocean is becoming very active, there is a possible Fujiwara scenario developing going by the latest GFS Runs east of Madagascar around 20th of this month.
With regard to NEM2013 we would have to live with hope now as the rational mind says there is going to be nothing left for us (Chennai) until month end while South Tamil Nadu would get some decent showers after 20th December.
Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras. Cyclone season has started in the southern hemisphere Thala
Good morning to all.
Pretty cool outside its very chillness.todays minimum temp will come down to 19 or lower than that.
pypkmsrikanth I believe pypkmsrikanth is referring to the Fujiwhara effect referring to here for those who dont know what it means
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/global-forecasts-predict-prolonged-wet-weather-for-the-north/article5463010.ece?homepage=true
But there is a western disturbance to contend with.
AnandKrishnamurthy Lucky those who get to see some snow or rain during December in north India. Never been fortunate to see it.
If one were to rake a decadal average chennai has had average to above avge annual rainfall for most years. Deficient years were really 2003, 2012 and in all probability 2013.
And meena at 124 cm is within 10% of normal..
Kea Blog has been featured in this week’s Kungumam weekly tamil magazine.
AnandKrishnamurthy good morning all, Storage position in the main lakes of chennai far from satifactory. Rains have failed big time.
As the month of Margazhi starts, it sure will rain in chennai, not water but songs.
Great Srikanth
chennairain This NEM some of the bloggers were totally off the mark in predicting. We have to accept it.
pypkmsrikanth
Congrats, Kea blog scaling new heights every day. Kudos Srikant, Vela, Pradeep and Ehsan.
Minimum temperature of 20.6 C 😮
pypkmsrikanth Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras.
Sri..I meant Cyclones for our region.
Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras. pypkmsrikanth Sel tracks cyclones from Jupiter also so the season is never ending for him
Arasu chennairain To be fair this season has been a forecaster’s nightmare for even experts with all available data. Models have had predictions change every run forget every other day
Hi all Good Morning 🙂
Let us not stop our discussions regarding weather though it’s almost the end of NEM. We can start discussing about other weather phenomena like fog formation, western disturbances, dwelling period conditions in Bay of Bengal right after the completion of brewing Cyclone season and even some internationally influencing weather stuffs like the El-nino’ and La-nina’, the Gulf of Mexico’s Loop current etc., in the days ahead…………………..
Arasu chennairain No one is stopping you from making predictions if you feel they are totally off the mark.
We base our forecasts on many different models. We can we do when these models were way off too.
AnandKrishnamurthy We will have to thank the generous SWM for that.
KeaWeatherWe need more posts from you Kea. This time , you are not active as before. Please do continue your good work!
Sud T.nagar
Early winter has set in in chennai.. but worst NEM is going to close around the cornor
ArasuchennairainI don’t agree with you. Few bloggers in the name of belief have spoiled this blog and asking other bloggers to post only positive news rather not ready to accept the reality. Otherwise, no big prediction was made this year and everything went right.
pypkmsrikanthI am proud, atleast i have chated with you all and you all knew me very well in the pending mode
am_metArasuchennairainudane kochikatheenga pa
Good morning..Kea bloggers in Kungumam..great going and congrats!
2 pulses off Andaman seen on 19th Dec
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=78&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
These 2 pulses as per GFS culminate in a system SE of chennai on 31st Dec
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Dare to Dream and keep the hopes
Selcyclone
Does the system have the “Will” to come up?
new system developing near indonesian coast in s.ind ocean … v would hav got pulse if it had formed 80E-90E
gopal666 BN Selcyclone most of the time,they will skate along 10N… if it turns big,then that has to be tracked….
Jtwc expects this to develop in the next two / three days, this was the one I was referring to in my post today morning on possible Fujiwara scenario
Congrats kea and team. Great going!
gopal666 BN but whatever we get now is more of a consolation rather than proper rains… when the time was ripe no system came to us
Pradeep John – Anna Nagar West praddy06@gmail.com
KeaWeather
Ehsan. Neenga engeyoo poiteenga..mathlab..aap kahin bohot dhoor pounch gaya..
shajaya-madip/ekkadPradeep John – Anna Nagar Westok
Good morning guys
Latest gfs predicts Nanauk to hit us by this year end!!!
Selva. Good to see you as Selvanfun..
Jupijove@Valasaravakkam wow…gud to see gfs forecast extending the rain wave further… http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_asia_384_10m_wnd_precip.gif
Selvanfun Jupijove@Valasaravakkam
2014 1st day 1st show!
2014 first day first show!
Kea, Anna matrum palar..Kungumathil vandhadhuku en vaazhthukkal! 🙂
I think this blog should also promote car pooling/ public transport/Cycling etc. Directly contributing to improving the quality of life & indirectly the weather. esp as we seem to a have a very young blogging community here .
What do you guys think.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Navneeth It goes without saying that we should slowly look at going beyond a platform for weather enthusiasts, afterall weather is a part of the overall environment. Various environmental factors determine our weather. My feeling is we are still not big enough to create a viable platform, but there can be always a start and make in our way small steps to improving the quality of life.
By compulsion I had to opt for Public Transport the last couple of months, am not a typical Desk Job guy but I have managed to comfortably use Public Transport (Train, Bus, Share Auto, Auto etc) for all my work related travels. May be we can to start with opt for a “Public Transport Day” once a month when all bloggers attempt to use public transport as their contribution to reduce carbon imprint.
good afternoon friends ham do my exam very well. any good news about weather ?
gopal666 BN 24 Hours has been a long time this NEM season for us. This is like one decade away. Lets not get carried away so soon.
quite sunny outside with some clouds
originaldashman Anna and others will certainly understand your wishes, would Kea understand?
gopal666 BN
Kanna Mr.Gopal..that is too long range forecast…short range forecasts itself failed recently..
Long range ???
Only i know that Kea knows Tamil very well 😀
madi is moving west north west with 20knots
Congrats to KEA team!!!
rajkmr gopal666 BN
Guys..lets be clear..all models this year have predicted the birth of systems fairly accurately..its only the intensity and path where there have erred..so lets not shy away from looking at the models from the Cyclogenesis perspective
93B in BOB-south of SL
Congratulations to KEA & team . I read the article in Kungumam book today. Good that KEA website is gaining some acknowledgement day by day and it is now becoming more popular. Hope it achieves more and more heights…. !!!!
My heart felt wishes !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks KEA & Senior members of KEA metsite & Blog
ashwinv any link to track the position for this system ??
rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur ashwinv they have just started
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO932013
We will have rain after our official NEM gets over..( i.e after DEC31st)…this year SWM monsoon gave more rain in october month in many states — Gujarat, rajasthan, & orissa – phailin..
The current prevailing cold air won’t allow any system or LPA to move above 10N…because as PJ told in magazine— night time is very cool & day time is also cool..
ashwinv rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur thanks ashwinv
Hi..someone check out this and tell me what is this means
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=93S&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
gopal666 BN
I accept the same..
Let see..what’s store in that for us..still 14 days to go..
Sailu,
With the year coming to an end, how about gathering all the important events that happened during 2013 and summarizing them during year end? It can be anything like weather-related events that occurred (especially in and around us), happenings in our blog, etc.
Eg: of Weather-related events-First ever tornado reported in Chennai, tornado near Cuddalore during Madi, unusual/extreme weather phenomenma during SWM like hailstorms, squalls, wind front in radar, etc. (please don mention about NEM 2013..nothing happened)
Eg: of Blog events-Blog meets that happened during the year, spreading of Keaweather to various platforms, media reports, new avatar of Kea blog, etc.
Since all these details are not available to me, u or any of the mods can take this up and can be done every year.
Also, can you create a space which lists all the media coverage which Kea blog and/or its members have received so far? (from the archives) It used to exist in Kea metsite before. If Kea is not willing, this need not be done.
You can also can place all the photos of the blog members (like snaps/videos taken during blog meets and the meet with Ramanan sir)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
originaldashman Good point, may be one of the days topic closer to the year end can be done like what you have ideated
mary211271 As of now there are no storms which are relevant to our basin Mary
mary211271 This is South of Equator and does not have any chance of impacting our NEM at all
pypkmsrikanth mary211271 ok but if u click the below link ,and check out that 8km box u find a LP above srilanka
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=93S&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
That is my concern……..
pypkmsrikanth mary211271 okay.
Goog after noon guys… Seeing the WV content near our shores i dont see any precipitation in recent future. the conditions like SST and Other factors needs to be more favourable for any system to pour in rains in chennai. If you see the over all global scenario
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global/main.html
We see that the TPW is on declining mode. Althought we can see some activity still in the MalaY peninsula. We can only hope that with some easterlies still predicted to affect us,,to bring all those moisture to our shores. Only time will upfold the mysteries which are in store for us.
Currently we are only sure of couple of dry days ahead.. definetly untill next week and by most theories.. untill this month end.
originaldashman Nice suggestion .. I think KEA will make this happen
mary211271 pypkmsrikanth that is in southern hemisphere… will not cross to NH…
shiv_met Easterlies will be active longer this NEM . I think so. what is your opinion ??
shiv_met mary211271 pypkmsrikanth oh is it?
Hope for some good rains before NEM finally winds up !!!!! Let us pray for that to happen. Wish that Nature will at least favour this time for some rains like what we got from THANE 2011 ..
Hope we welcome 2014 with some big smile because of some good rains for entire TN !!!!!!
mary211271 pypkmsrikanth There is actually another Invest which is in North Indian which Rammb is tracking. Ocean http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO932013
pypkmsrikanth originaldashman there is the in news option in met site itself… and yea.. a recap of the 2013 so far.. would be neat… will think on it..
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
You can see that mjo signal staying in the Indian ocean for some time now. Its got a good amplitude and making eastward progress into the maritime continent. Southern hemisphere Indian ocean is seeing a lot of storms. If this is how the signal had been in october then NEM 2013 would have been a different story. I know Selvanfun will say MJO is not the source of convection. If we had easterlies set up nicely then no need for MJO. However I believe all these things are strongly connected. They dont oppose each other. Positive MJO will enhance easterlies.
pypkmsrikanth mary211271 ok i checked it, but it looks like the one I posted- lat 14.4 Lon 74.8?
Ha ha… Instead u shld hav typed “mjo is not only the source of convection….”
Thanks! Please update the In News section and also consider having all the photos in one place..
Selvanfun Sorry ?