220 thoughts on “Dry days ahead

  1. Probably tonight and early morning may well  be the coldest night of the year so far..Real chill conditions prevailing now,,

  2. shajaya-madip/ekkad Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras. 

    Brahmakumaris–Om Shanthi–World spiritual Organisation Logo,,..Let there be peace.

  3. Selva–Its better you get back to your old profile name..Selvanfun,,,,Think Cyclone season is coming to a close..May be another one .Na-Mukh..Who knows..  :)

  4. shajaya-madip/ekkad Pradeep John – Anna Nagar West 

    Yes, that should be the case..At least there will be one more spell to wind of the season,, Hopefully.

  5. South Indian Ocean is becoming very active, there is a possible Fujiwara scenario developing going by the latest GFS Runs east of Madagascar around 20th of this month.  
    With regard to NEM2013 we would have to live with hope now as the rational mind says there is going to be nothing left for us (Chennai) until month end while South Tamil Nadu would get some decent showers after 20th December.

  6. Good morning to all.
    Pretty cool outside its very chillness.todays minimum temp will come down to 19 or lower than that.

  7. AnandKrishnamurthy Lucky those who get to see some snow or rain during December in north India. Never been fortunate to see it.

  8. If one were to rake a decadal average chennai has had average to above avge annual rainfall for most years. Deficient years were really 2003, 2012 and in all probability 2013.

  9. AnandKrishnamurthy good morning all, Storage position in the main lakes of chennai far from satifactory. Rains have failed big time.

  10. pypkmsrikanth 

    Congrats, Kea blog scaling new heights every day.  Kudos  Srikant, Vela, Pradeep and Ehsan.

  11. Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras. pypkmsrikanth Sel tracks cyclones from Jupiter also so the season is never ending for him

  12. Arasu chennairain To be fair this season has been a forecaster’s nightmare for even experts with all available data.  Models have had predictions change every run forget every other day

  13. Hi all Good Morning :)

    Let us not stop our discussions regarding weather though it’s almost the end of NEM. We can start discussing about other weather phenomena like fog formation, western disturbances, dwelling period conditions in Bay of Bengal right after the completion of brewing Cyclone season and even some internationally influencing weather stuffs like the El-nino’ and La-nina’, the Gulf of Mexico’s Loop current etc., in the days ahead…………………..

  14. KeaWeatherWe need more posts from you Kea. This time , you are not active as before. Please do continue your good work!

  15. ArasuchennairainI don’t agree with you. Few bloggers in the name of belief have spoiled this blog and asking other bloggers to post only positive news rather  not ready to accept the reality. Otherwise,  no big prediction was made this year and everything went right.

  16. pypkmsrikanthI am proud, atleast i have chated with you all and you all knew me very well in the pending mode

  17. Jtwc expects this to develop in the next two / three days, this was the one I was referring to in my post today morning on possible Fujiwara scenario

  18. gopal666 BN  but whatever we get now is more of a consolation rather than proper rains… when the time was ripe no system came to us :-/

  19. Jupijove@Valasaravakkam  wow…gud to see gfs forecast extending the rain wave further…   http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_asia_384_10m_wnd_precip.gif

  20. I think this blog should also promote car pooling/ public transport/Cycling etc. Directly contributing to improving the quality of life & indirectly the weather. esp as we seem to a have a very young blogging community here . 
    What do you guys think.

  21. Navneeth It goes without saying that we should slowly look at going beyond a platform for weather enthusiasts, afterall weather is a part of the overall environment.  Various environmental factors determine our weather.  My feeling is we are still not big enough to create a viable platform, but there can be always a start and make in our way small steps to improving the quality of life.

    By compulsion I had to opt for Public Transport the last couple of months, am not a typical Desk Job guy but I have managed to comfortably use Public Transport (Train, Bus, Share Auto, Auto etc) for all my work related travels.  May be we can to start with opt for a “Public Transport Day” once a month when all bloggers attempt to use public transport as their contribution to reduce carbon imprint.

  22. gopal666 BN 24 Hours has been a long time this NEM season for us.  This is like one decade away.  Lets not get carried away so soon.

  23. rajkmr gopal666 BN 
    Guys..lets be clear..all models this year have predicted the birth of systems fairly accurately..its only the intensity and path where there have erred..so lets not shy away from looking at the models from the Cyclogenesis perspective

  24. Congratulations to KEA & team . I read the article in Kungumam book today. Good that KEA website is gaining some acknowledgement day by day and it is now becoming more popular. Hope it achieves more and more heights…. !!!!

    My heart felt wishes !!!!!!!!!!!!! 

    Thanks KEA & Senior members of KEA metsite & Blog

  25. We will have rain after our official NEM gets over..( i.e after DEC31st)…this year SWM monsoon gave more rain in october month in many states — Gujarat, rajasthan, & orissa – phailin..
    The current prevailing cold air won’t allow any system or LPA to move above 10N…because as PJ told in magazine— night time is very cool & day time is also cool..

  26. Sailu,
    With the year coming to an end, how about gathering all the important events that happened during 2013 and summarizing them during year end? It can be anything like weather-related events that occurred (especially in and around us), happenings in our blog, etc.
    Eg: of Weather-related events-First ever tornado reported in Chennai, tornado near Cuddalore during Madi, unusual/extreme weather phenomenma during SWM like hailstorms, squalls, wind front in radar, etc. (please don mention about NEM 2013..nothing happened)
    Eg: of Blog events-Blog meets that happened during the year, spreading of Keaweather to various platforms, media reports, new avatar of Kea blog, etc.
    Since all these details are not available to me, u or any of the mods can take this up and can be done every year.
    Also, can you create a space which lists all the media coverage which Kea blog and/or its members have received so far? (from the archives) It used to exist in Kea metsite before. If Kea is not willing, this need not be done.
    You can also can place all the photos of the blog members (like snaps/videos taken during blog meets and the meet with Ramanan sir)

  27. originaldashman Good point, may be one of the days topic closer to the year end can be done like what you have ideated

  28. Goog after noon guys… Seeing the WV content near our shores i dont see any precipitation in recent future. the conditions like SST and Other factors needs to be more favourable for any system to pour in rains in chennai. If you see the over all global scenario


    We see that the TPW is on declining mode. Althought we can see some activity still in the MalaY peninsula. We can only hope that with some easterlies still predicted to affect us,,to bring all those moisture to our shores. Only time will upfold the mysteries which are in store for us. 

    Currently we are only sure of couple of dry days ahead.. definetly untill next week and by most theories.. untill this month end.

  29. Hope for some good rains before NEM finally winds up !!!!! Let us pray for that to happen. Wish that  Nature will at least favour this time for some rains like what we got from THANE 2011 .. 

    Hope we welcome 2014 with some big smile because of some good rains for entire TN !!!!!!

  30. mary211271 pypkmsrikanth  There is actually another Invest which is in North Indian which Rammb is tracking. Ocean http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO932013

  31. pypkmsrikanth originaldashman there is the in news option in met site itself… and yea..  a recap of the 2013 so far..  would be neat…  will think on it..

  32. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

    You can see that mjo signal staying in the Indian ocean for some time now. Its got a good amplitude and making eastward progress into the maritime continent. Southern hemisphere Indian ocean is seeing a lot of storms. If this is how the signal had been in october then NEM 2013 would have been a different story. I know Selvanfun will say MJO is not the source of convection. If we had easterlies set up nicely then no need for MJO. However I believe all these things are strongly  connected. They dont oppose each other. Positive MJO will enhance easterlies.

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