349 thoughts on “Water scarcity looms as NEM is on it’s way out

  1. PJ alias data anna, right now CMW Supplies water on alternate days. Whether is there any possibility in near future for daily supply?

  2. Gfs predicts one more weak system affecting TN before Christmas… Also there will be strong easterlies during the next three months which will lead to good spring rainfall and a good start for 2014 as per Ecmwf which I pointed out today evening! In my opinion the worst model I have ever seen this NEM is the CFS model. It predicted a very good November for us and it turned out to be the opposite. The same model predicts dry weather for the next few weeks so let’s see whether it comes good or it becomes the opposite again! :P Once again Ecmwf model was spot on this year’s NEM! Let’s keep hoping for more rains… good night :-)

  3. Jupijove, according to the steering captain of the blog, selcyclone, CFS is best for long term prediction….. This was posted 2 days back by selva

  4. Friends, Good evening. Had been to Durgapur on official work. Ironically 15days back when I went to Anpara, leher fizzled out. This time Madi fizzled out. I infact rushed back to Chennai to enjoy rains from Madi but highly disappointed. Pray to god that Jupi’s words come true!!!!

  5. good rains In my area last 2 days… but clear weather today… bit cold outside.. 22 degrees.. waiting for ground to dry up… no rain please for week tym . gonna play cricket match…
    Chennai is at mighty deficient… hope it ll recover soon from upcoming easterlies..
    NEM giants cuddalore nagai thiruvarur in serious deficit..
    YOU CAN SEE PARANGIPETTAI in cuddalore dist doing good in all years… whether dry or wet MJo it doing good as always… nice green place… I visited once…

  6. sreekriss If man made global warming has to be accepted as the sole cause for
    the drastic climate changes then why Mesopotamian civilization’s
    migration happened due to prolonged drought and in those days when there
    was no chance for man made global warming again severe drought was the
    cause for the diminished Mohenjo Daro, Harappa civilizations.
    On the
    basis of extensive explorations carried out in Northern Mesopotamia, a joint
    French-American team led by H. Weiss of Yale University has determined that
    most of the old world civilization were severely affected by a prolonged
    drought that began about 2200 B.C. and persisted for about 300 years. The most
    drastically hit region seems to have been the Akkadian civilization
    neighbouring India.
    The drought may have been triggered by massive volcanic eruptions. According to
    the findings of this historic study concluded only recently:
    “At
    approximately 2,200 B.C., occupations of Tell Leilan and Tell Brak (in Northern
    Mesopotamia) were suddenly abandoned…a marked increase in aridity and wind
    circulation, subsequent to a volcanic eruption, induced considerable
    degradation in land use conditions…. this abrupt climatic change caused
    abandonement of Tell Leilan, regional desertion, and collapse of the Akkadian
    empire based in southern Mesopotamia. Synchronous collapse in adjacent regions
    suggests the impact of abrupt climatic change was excessive.”

    An end
    uncannily like that of the Harappans. The authors of this momentous study note
    that the collapse of the Akkdians more or less coincided with similar climate
    change, land degradation and collapse noted in the Aegean,
    Palestine, Egypt, and India. The date
    of 1900 BCE given by S.R. Rao for the collapse of the Harappans should be seen
    as approximate. More accurate methods are now available that show this date to
    have been sometime before 2000 BCE, and they are well within the calibration
    error of radiocation and other scientific dating techniques.
    The basic
    point is: as a result of several independent explorations conducted over a vast
    belt from southern Europe to India, it is
    now clear that civilizations over a large part of the ancient world were
    brought to a calamitous end by an abrupt climate change on a global scale. To
    attribute a global calamity of such colossal magnitude to nomadic ‘Aryan’
    tribes is simplistic in the extreme.
    These discoveries
    should help put an end to all speculation regarding the Aryan invasion as the
    cause of breakup of the Harappan civilization. Hence we are
    left with no other option than rather to conclude that “Nature has its
    own way of workings which are still beyond mankind’s reach.”

  7. The UAC south of Andaman is building up nicely.  Madi also seems to have lost influence and drifting away from the Indian sub continent.  All in all good news for the easterlies to give us some rains, while we wait to see if anything comes out of the UAC.

  8. Good morning to all.
    East is very dark but no sign of rain.
    Nothing on the radar and sat image also for the rains in chennai.

  9. Good morning to all. Nice to see overnight rains!! As Sri pointed out, the system south of  Andaman let it come to us.

  10. ganu1985 

    Vellore (Katpadi) ..NEM yet to start there,,Has just rcd 105 mm thus far..Fared poorly this season.

  11. The next name in the North Indian Ocean Basin cyclone list is Na-nauk, contributed by Myanmar.  All previous cyclones named by Myanmar have some interesting anecdotes, and some strange behaviour.

    Pyaar – September 2005. Formed around 20N and crossed around 18.5N after moving WNW initially and then SW without loosing intensity.  Kunnawaram recorded 49 cms and Koida recorded 48 cms in a single day. Both of these places were slightly away from the coast

    Yemyin – June 2007. Formed in the Bay NW of Andaman and crossed as a deep depression near Kakinada.  Subsequently it crossed the Deccan Plateau all along until in jumped into Arabian sea west of Gujarat, becoming cyclonic storm Yemyin. Subsequently making its second ladfall on the Pakistani coast and giving rains to even Afghanisthan further North. Lot of places in Gujarat got heavy rains because of this system moving along the Indian peninsula

    Phyan – November 2009.  Formed in Arabian Sea it move NNE until crossing the west coast of India south of Mumbai.  A rare Arabian Sea cyclone during peak NEM season which gave heavy rains all over Maharashtra and Goa.  What is quirky about this cyclone.  The last tropical storm to come near Konkan region during the  month of November was some 43 years back.  The strange thing about Phyan was rains were observed all the way upto Tibet because of this cyclone.  But the biggest effect was felt in Keti near Ooty which received more than 100 cms of rains in matter of day on account of this system.

    Thane – December 201. One of those rare storms again which moved NW initially and when expected to continue a similar trajectory ended up moving west and then further moving SW without loosing intensity and crossed near Pondicherry.  It  subsequently moved NW after landfall dumping rains in interior places.

    All Myanmar named storms have been quirky with some good rainfall patterns .  They also have one another pattern, bloggers who find that pattern as well would know the connection Na-nauk could have to NEM2013

  12. I would be very grateful if somebody can post links to maps that show 
    1.the current position of the ridges
    2.the current steering pattern
    Assuming a cyclone were to form in the 5-10 N latitude in South South Andaman sea, how would it be steered. From the upper layer wind maps that i dont think they are currently favourable to move towards TN.
    Meteorologically, what factors would contribute to a heavy rain producing system in December. 
    Factors like position of the ridges, strength, steering winds, 200hpa ridge line and the easterlies below and above it etc.
    Lets discuss this and wish for these to happen as early as possible.

  13. @gbrajendran – Sir, your post about our old civilizations are very interesting and educating us. Thanks for posting it.

  14. pypkmsrikanth 

    The other pattern is the alternate year –2005, 2007,  2009, 2011 and 2013 may be….Hope Na-Nauk proves to be less destructive and yield more rainfall before this year end..

  15. theshankaran, ambattur Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras. pypkmsrikanth 

    Correction. 3 and 9 are not prime numbers.

  16. Novak Nole. Anna Nagar West. Madras.theshankaran, ambatturpypkmsrikanthu cannot take the units only. 2003 2009 is prime. who said 3 is not prime. but 2009 is a prime no

  17. nshankara Sir, when three major systems, namely leher, helen and Madi were wash outs for chennai, these sort of minor developments will have no impact. Let us move on. NEM is over for good.

  18. I,m hoping for a new system ,may be forming near Andaman south, might be the last for the year,.not sure will it be to tn or srilanka, near gom. excepting somewhere by next week early..lets see..

  19. (Issued at 12.00 noon on 14thDecember2013)
    An easterly wave is going to affect the weather over the island. As such, showers or thundershowers will occur at times in the Northern, North-central, Eastern and Uva provinces.
    Thundershowers will develop at most places elsewhere particularly during the afternoon and night.
    Srilanka met dept

  20. Cyclone Madi as a Depression crossed Tamil Nadu. Gives un-expected Heavy Rains
    ———————————-
    The cyclone Madi had weakened into a Depression and crossed TN Coast near Veadarnayam first and then again near Tondi on Thursday Night. No big rains was expected from this due to the Dry air and as well it was a sheared system. But the system again intensified as it neared TN coast and lot of convection took place and many areas across Tamil Nadu got widespread rains. Villipuram & Kanyakumari district got most of the heavy spell from the weakened Madi.
    This is the second Depression to Cross TN. The 1st one crossed near Nagapattinam during second week of November.
    This year Colachel, Eraniel & Papanasam have been the NEM toppers.
    in mm (min 20 mm) on 13.12.2013
    Colachel (Kanyakumari dt) – 115
    Tindivanam (Villupuram dt) – 112
    Cheyyur (Kancheepuram dt) – 110
    Eraniel (Kanyakumari dt)  – 109
    Kallakurichi AWS (Villipuram dt) – 107
    Kallakurichi (Villipuram dt) – 104
    Pondicherry (Pondicherry) – 97
    Ulundurpet (Villupuram dt) – 93
    Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar dt) – 92
    Neyoor (Kanyakumari) – 88
    Koliporvilai (Kanyakumari dt) – 86
    Kallkikudi (Madurai dt) – 82
    Attur (Salem dt) – 82
    PeriyaKalapet (Pondicherry) – 79
    Madurai AP (Madurai dt) – 75
    Sothapparai (Theni dt) – 74
    Thirumangalam (Madurai dt) – 70
    Vilupuram (Villupuram dt) – 70
    Karayapatti (Virudhunagar dt) – 63
    Mukkadal (Kanyakumari dt) – 60
    Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt) – 60
    Koliyanur (Villupuram dt) – 60
    Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar dt) – 59
    Kodaikanal (Dindugul dt) – 59
    Narikudi (Virudhunagar dt) – 59
    Manamadurai (Sivaganga dt) – 58
    Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram dt) – 57
    Kadaladi (Ramanathapuram dt) – 56
    Kodavasal (Tiruvarur dt) – 56
    Mylam (Villupuram dt) – 54
    Virakannur (Madurai dt) – 54
    Peraiyur (Madurai dt) – 54
    Thiruvattur (Kanyakumari dt) – 53
    Mylady (Kanyakumari dt) – 53
    Neyveli (Cuddalore dt) – 51
    Peraiyur (Madurai dt) – 49
    Mambzhamthuriaaru (Kanyakumari dt) – 48
    Thammampatty (Salem dt) – 48
    Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar dt) – 47
    Tirupuvanam (Sivaganga dt) – 46
    Chatrapatti (Dindigul dt) – 46
    Anaikidangu (Kanyakumari dt) – 45
    Sivakasi (Virudhunagar dt) – 43
    Kottar (Kanyakumari dt) – 43
    Mullankinavilai (Kanyakumari dt) – 42
    Kulasekaram (Kanyakuamri dt) – 41
    Watrap (Virudhunagar dt) – 40
    Idyampati (Madurai dt) – 40
    Sivagiri (Erode dt) – 40
    Vazhapadi (Salem dt) – 39
    Thallakulam (Madurai dt) – 39
    Adayamadai (Kanyakumari dt) – 39
    Illayangudi (Sivaganga dt) – 38
    Nagercoil (Kanyakumari dt) – 38
    Mangalapuram (Namakkal dt) – 38
    Marakkanam (Villupuram dt) – 37
    Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar dt) – 37
    Thiruchuzhi (Virudhunagar dt) – 36
    Surangudi (Toothukudi dt) – 36
    Tiruppullani (Ramanathapuram dt) – 36
    Eravangalar (Theni dt) – 35
    Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari dt) – 35
    Upper Aliyar (Coimbatore dt) – 35
    Mudukulatur (Ramanathapuram dt) – 35
    Ramanathapuram (Ramanathapuram dt) – 34
    Valinokkam (Ramanathapuram dt) – 33
    Sattur (Virudhunagar dt) – 33
    Madurai South (Madurai dt) – 32
    Paramakudi (Ramanathapuram dt) – 32
    Srimushnam (Cuddalore dt) – 30
    Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt) – 30
    Upper Kodayar (Kanayakumari) – 30
    Kanyakumari (Kanyakumari dt) – 30
    Mulanur (Tiruppur dt) – 30
    Dharapuram (Tiruppur dt) – 30
    Palavidudhi (Karur dt) – 30
    Melur (Madurai dt) – 30
    Uttamapalayam (Theni dt) – 30
    Tirumayam (Pudukkottai dt) – 30
    Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt) – 30
    Sevambamkottai (Virudhunagar dt) – 29
    Mylampatti (Karur dt) – 27
    Ponnanaiyar (Trichirppali dt) – 27
    Kovilaaru (Virudgunagar dt) – 27
    Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram dt) – 26
    Sivaganga (Sivaganga dt) – 26
    Kalandari (Madurai dt) – 26
    Vanur (Villupuram dt) – 26
    Tondi (Ramanathapuram dt) – 26
    Sivaganga (Sivaganga dt) – 26
    Ottapadiram (Toothukudi dt) – 26
    Bogalur (Ramanathapuram dt) – 25
    Thanimangalam (Madurai dt) – 25
    Valangaiman (Tiruvarur dt) – 25
    Veeranam Lake (Cuddalore dt) – 25
    Karaikkal (Pondicherry) – 25
    Samayapuram (Trichy dt) – 25
    Kadavur (Karur dt) – 25
    Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur dt) – 25
    Thaniyamangalam (Madurai dt) – 25
    Anaipalayam (Karur dt) – 25
    Sankarapuram (Villupuram dt) – 24
    Rajagiri (Thanjavur dt) – 24
    Cuddalore (Cuddalore dt) – 24
    Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt) – 24
    Kovilpatti (Toothukudi dt) – 24
    Sankarapuram (Villupuram dt) – 24
    Rasipuram (Nammkkal dt) – 23
    Arimalam (Pudukkottai dt) – 23
    Panruti (Cuddalore dt) – 23
    K.m.koil (Cuddalore dt) – 23
    Kamatchipuram (Dindigul dt) – 23
    Shencottah (Tirunelveli dt) – 23
    Chittampatti (Madurai dt) – 23
    Sultanpet (Coimbatore dt) – 23
    Thanjavaur (Thanjavur dt) – 22
    Karuppandhi (Tirunelveli dt) – 22
    Panchapatti (Karur dt) – 22
    Parangipettai (Cuddalore dt) – 22
    Aravakurichi (Karur dt) – 21
    Sivagiri (Tirunelveli dt) – 21
    Suralcode (Kanyakumari dt) – 20
    Amaravathy (Coimbatore dt) – 20
    Coonoor (Nilgris dt) – 20
    Kinnakorai (Nilgris dt) – 20
    Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar dt) – 20
    Pilvalkkal (Virudhunagar dt) – 20
    Nagapattinam (Nagapattinam dt) – 20
    Papanasam (Tirunelvei dt) – 20

  21. area of convection slowly consolidating with contionous ts formation all around.. . shear very fav..sst also fav.. but  bad luck still ther is no circulation seen yet  http://mscweb.kishou.go.jp/sat_dat/img/reg/sea1/vis_00.jpg

  22. 1ST major system of s.ind ocean developing in a unfav area of 40-50 knts of shear..  http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/3A-globe-vis.jpg

  23. The tourist town in the Darjeeling hills has received the season’s first
    snowfall with the 3,636 meter Sandakphu covered in a white blanket.

    Areas near Sandakphu like Tonglu and Phalut also received
    snowfall yesterday, according to the MeT office at North Bengal University.
    Darjeeling last witnessed snowfall on 11 January, 2012, at Tiger
    Hill and also at Ghoom and Jorebunglow

  24. The low pressure area over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood
    persists. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. The
    cyclonic circulation over Arunachal Pradesh and neighbourhood persists and now
    extends between 2.1 and 3.6 kms a.s.l. The cyclonic circulation extending upto
    3.1 kms a.s.l. over south Andaman sea and neighbourhood persists.

  25. The lowest minimum temperature of 3.4 degree c has been recored at Muzaffarnagar
    (west Uttar Pradesh) in the plains of the country.

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