1,562 thoughts on “Deficit seems likely as cyclone moves north.

  1. Dont jump the gun too soon..Strong easterlies to set in the first week of December..Wait and watch.

  2. surajsr РKellys rame1975 РChennai-Kolathur can you give the link or site address for sharing or posting ?
    You posted that one in the afternoon

  3. surajsr РKellys rame1975 РChennai-Kolathur No you posted to Paul abraham for copying cyclone names

  4. Hi whoever starts the new topic…..Kindly do say a couple of lines thanking all those following the blog and the experts and please say¬† “Kindly move to the new topic” or something like that instead of just saying “New topic” abruptly.¬† We owe it to all the people on the blog.

  5. surajsr РKellys 
    the problem here is it got intensified into cyclone too early.. good sign is its weakening slightly now.. SST’s are less favorable near the coast but very good in its current position.. chennai LF is highly unlikely.. between Nellore and ongole good possibility

  6. iamramesh surajsr РKellys The conditions it encountered after LF in Andaman boosted this very quickly ..

  7. Time of issue: 2300 hours IST РIMD 
    The severe cyclonic storm ‚ÄėLEHAR‚Äô over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary

  8. surajsr – Kellys¬†rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur¬†trendsetter21 – Ram¬†If it crosses coast near Nellore … will be fine …Hope we get some rains

  9. trendsetter21 – Ram¬†optimisticgreen¬†surajsr – Kellys¬†SURAJ — very much positive from the beginning..

  10. trendsetter21 – Ram¬†rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur¬†surajsr – Kellys I feel the same..Mostly because the later it Landfall’s more the winter will set in AP which i think can affect it’s track..

  11. trendsetter21 РRam rame1975 РChennai-Kolathur surajsr РKellys But the fate is in hands of ridges, shear, sst ,WD etc.. If all help , then we can expect good news

  12. rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur¬†trendsetter21 – Ram¬†surajsr – Kellys that’s true Rame, all we can be is be positive, Keep praying and hope for a repeat of Baaz..

  13. trendsetter21 – Ram¬†rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur¬†surajsr – Kellys so that’s one step in the right direction ūüėÄ

  14. Cyclone Lehar to Hit South India Thursdayhttp://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303281504579219321500016970

  15. trendsetter21 – Ram¬†rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur On a positive note, consdering many had written off Leher earlier itself..This is the best position we can be in…we just need a little more from the system thats it..

  16. surajsr РKellys trendsetter21 РRam rame1975 РChennai-Kolathur Looking at yesterdays picture who would have that this system would take such an evasive change. Nature has something good in store for us. Lets just wait and watch. The result

  17. trendsetter21 – Ram¬†surajsr – Kellys¬†rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur yup that’s all i keep telling everyone…we just need to keep praying and be positive as how we have..just need to drag it down a bit¬† more

  18. trendsetter21 – Ram¬†surajsr – Kellys¬†rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur¬†UNTIL last ball is bowled… very well said..

  19. trendsetter21 РRam rame1975 РChennai-Kolathur surajsr РKellys at that time there were models taking Lehar to Burma

  20. optimisticgreen¬†trendsetter21 – Ram¬†rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur¬†surajsr – Kellys¬†correct boss….

  21. trendsetter21 РRam rame1975 РChennai-Kolathur surajsr РKellys now its not even Telangana its gonna be Andhra

  22. good night to all bloggers.. 
    Our wait for rains continues…..
    Hope it starts from wednesday . and continues till Thursday this week

  23. Ok..Good night all…Hope we see SW moment for a while and wake up to a surprise tomorrow with Leher changing its path completely in our favor.¬† ūüôā

  24. Latest co-ordinates shows started moving SW 12.24N   -91.02 E  also with weakening flag off.   Last before was 12.90N  -89.74 E
    GREAT news on the way guys.

  25. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0513.gif jtwc forecast looks good 4 us
    252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 90.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (LEHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT, EXPANSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE CONTINUING TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 251512Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND PASSAGE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 95 KNOTS AT TAU 36. THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM AROUND TAU 60. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND A STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING SCENARIO, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TC 05B FURTHER EASTWARD BASED ON NEWLY AVAILABLE MICROWAVE DATA. MAXIM
    51800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// NNNN

  26. The latest JTWC report expects the system to hit just North of Machilipatnam, about 20 kms away.  The landfall point has been pushed South by a further 40 kms.

  27. Still expecting Kakinada landfall, the system has been pretty much slow moving for entire day yesterday , I would be surely surprised if the system moves to north Ap after this.

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