As expected Cyclone Helen made landfall close to Machilipatnam today. In the next few days the new system is expected to intensify into a cyclone.
As expected Cyclone Helen made landfall close to Machilipatnam today. In the next few days the new system is expected to intensify into a cyclone.
Now I am more concerned about Lehr’s intensity as Philippines system sucked all the moisture from Lehr. So it would some time to consolidate.
ramisettisrinivasa Hi what about rains in AP ???
Let me start off positively…Leher will come to TN, before Leher will get rains from Easterly winds 😀
surajsr – Kellys what is the latest on next system ???
vagaries update
Another Low forms in the Southern Bay on Friday evening, around the 10N 95E region. Initially, parameters show the system (BB-20) heading WNW towards Southern Andaman Islands.
If the system remains South of 12/13N till the 86E region, there is a chance of it turning WSW (towards Chennai). If it moves above 12/13N, and comes west of 86E, it would move NW then.
hi anyone online ????
Why blog is silent today ???
calm before storm !!!!
Lows and easterlies are enough… no need for any lehars or some nonsense systems
I look only at radar…
Jigga want 92b as a depression to TN then 😛
Jigga is there any chance for rain tonight ???
Just imagine if TN was an island near andaman…
rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur surajsr – Kellys i think so far looks positive rame, lets c
ramisettisrinivasa Rami, that will help TN wouldn’t it?
surajsr – Kellys ramisettisrinivasa Yeah it would help very much..
Easterlies are pushing twrds TN …light drizzles early morning… possible chances for a Low in the next two days…
rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur surajsr – Kellys ramisettisrinivasa That’s what i think If it ends up not being a cyclone and a D or DD instead..it will be good..
Even low willbe fine…
Jigga Then we can expect good rains from both SWM and NEM
IMD prediction
The low pressure area over Sumatra and adjoining areas of south Andaman sea would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours and further intensify thereafter.
INSAT IMAGE
surajsr – Kellys rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur ramisettisrinivasa Hope it gives some decent rains to save us from water scarcity….
As xpected ,forecast changing slowly… Cmc model shows lehar striking chennai.
Selcyclone Are you sure ???
Selcyclone SEE the vagaries post by me .
JTWC remarks THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.7E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK,
THAILAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA
INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-FORMED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230930Z. //
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.8N 99.8E TO 8.8N 94.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
220900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N
99.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
Helen damaged thousands of hectares of paddy and other Rabi crops in west godavari,krishna districts.Reports say that the rainfall confined only to 4 districts,10 fishermen were found missing from 2 days.
SEL
Latest shear tendency http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5sht.GIF
Is it good for the new system ?
earthquakes
kiranreddy SVU where are you from AP ?
Sriraman V K YEAH ….I forgot…Thanks for mentioning.
rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur kiranreddy SVU Iam from kurnool,doing my b-tech in sri venkateswara university tirupati.
@rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur ya..highly fav
kiranreddy SVU rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur Nice
Selcyclone hope it steers the new system towards us……
deep layer wind shear
surajsr – Kellys ramisettisrinivasa yes, slow strengthening (up to below cat 3) favors TN landfall.
ramisettisrinivasa surajsr – Kellys Hi where are you staying ? In chennai or AP ?
It seems everyone is tired of the boring weather. Expecting good start next week …
Hope rain gods smile on us ……….!!!!!!!!!
Good night to all bloggers
Our hopes are still alive and running… Let us be positive and hope for good rains in the next few weeks .!!!!!!!!!!
latest ecmwf update shows system dissipating sw-central bay ..
Selcyclone That is bad news …. ???
Selcyclone Is that possible Sel? Earlier many had so many expectations from this system
Selcyclone this too bad……………..didn’t expect at all.
Selcyclone Link please ???
ramisettisrinivasa Selcyclone Rami, what do you think of this, Is this because of the Philippines system?
Selcyclone Are you talking about this ?
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!144!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013112200!!/
Selcyclone
What is your opinion on this ?
Guys , This looks disappointing……http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/11/22/basis12/swas/prec/13112812_2212.gif
Hope it does not happen ….
surajsr – Kellys ramisettisrinivasa Selcyclone yes sure. But it is too early to say about Lehr.
rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur Sriraman V K Then TN would have been called Andaman 🙂
Business line says – Leher heading to Orissa according to US models.
But ECMWF takes it to TN
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/92W.html see the map more of nnw
Good Morning Bloggers.
The third in the series which am posting as part of possible Lehar tracking. In the map below you would see a thick Yellow Line which are now ridges which are now going to act as a wall for Lehar’s movement up north. Depending on how powerful Lehar is going to be become the wall will be either breached or pushed up to what distance either of these two would happen depends on factors that play out as each day passes.
Before that Lehar has a minor business to attend. The small yellow line running perpendicular to Sri Lanka, these are smaller ridges which need to be pushed to join the bigger wall or breached. In all probabibility I expect it to be breached though that might happen only after Lehar makes a fair bit of westward movement in the next 24 – 48 hours.
I have also plotted the possible path which Lehar might take so am hopeful Lehar is going to be benevolent to us this time around.
In the last known position it is already at 30 knots intensity so expect a depression declared by evening from IMD and hopefully from tomorrow evening we can call her officially Lehar.
good morning bloggers hope today we get rain
1000mb ,30knts ..With increase in 3 to 5 knts, imd would call it a as a DD…
some blue dots are over Chennai
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/doppler-radar-products/
Air pressure is the weight of the atmosphere pressing down on the earth. It is measured by a barometer in units called millibars. Most barometers use mercury in a glass column, like a thermometer, to measure the change in air pressure.
good morning all !
it wil b taking a steady westerly track…new hpa seen near hongkong coast pushed it further… So Overall movement would be W-nw-w til 85-90E.. Chances r becoming bright for n.tn.
Thank you Sri for your detailed blog.. v r getting very good info from you…
Selcyclone sel can u say when will it come near to us
Hi sel, first appreciate your forecast on Helen.. well before you told that it will go to machilipatnam.. even all
Models predicted other places. You are bang on target at the first time itself..
Good Morning bloggers
Selcyclone
Hope this come to TN
Based on your accuracy .. can we have your forecast for the coming system ( Lehar). I am sure you will be again bang on target this time as well..
We can expect some showers today later in the day…
pypkmsrikanth
Gud Morning Srikanth
ChandramouliSeetharaman
Hope this heads towards TN and not AP or orissa
good morning to all. blog is silent?
paul abraham ok
good convection building for Lehr.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
Good morning Raj, Balaji hope this weekend is better lucked for us
Sel do you think those ridges near Sri Lanka could spoil our party
Rami good morning I don’t think the Philippines system is going to be big obstacle for the development of Lehar
yes…ther wnt b any impact from philippines system.. Instead v wil get benefited..
Finally a strong system which does not wander with a 25 knot intensity for 3 days. Lehar already having a organised circulation of winds.
Selcyclone good morning everyone . how
good morning Mr Srikanth, when I logged in I was looking forward to your post! and here it is!! I find your analysis meaningful and informative and make a lay man like me to get a tip or two. Expect your considered opinion as and when forecasts are updated.
No trace of Helen, Lehar organizing itself decently getting ready to play around with the HPA zones that are lying on its way towards the TN Coast.
can someone share the rain fall figures in AP from Helen.. some areas very close to the point of lanfall would have got some good numbers.. though others areas didnt get much
pypkmsrikanth Actually yesterday, by seeing MJO pattern (rushing towards phase 6) and clould pattern rushing towards pacific system, i am in a bit worry abt pacific systems.
however by seeing today’s MJO (taken sharp turn towards phase 4) and cloud pattern of paciifc system (unsysmmetrical pattern and N/NE moving, not a threat for BOB systems).
i also changed my opinion today morning as pacific system is not going to give big threat for Lehr.
So for Lehr initial hurdle has been reduced.
The system is roughly at 6N 99E
anyone can tell me whether the system form Philipines sucking the moisture of Lehar as informed by our friend? will it affect Lehar”s movement and strength. Pls inform what is the current position of Lehar?
Lanina Dont need to add the Mr., Lanina. Call me Sri or Srikanth or Cheeka as some of the bloggers call me. Am trying my bit in terms of putting up these little thoughts which could be of use to others. Just like you am also hoping that finally we get the roll of the dice and end up getting decent rains for TN which is now running a deficit meter like the “Soodu Auto Meter”
Intensit increasing to 31knts near the northern quadrant…. No wonder if imd announces it as DD in 11.30am update considering the rapid intensification…
thank you selcyclone. will philipines systm affect lehar
LEHR position @ 5:30 ISt 7.0 N 97.9 E 30 Kts. Seems to have moved NW a bit initially.. waiting for it to enter the low shear and play between ridges
ChandramouliSeetharaman Please see some posting below or the previous article.
ChandramouliSeetharaman IMD would possibbly update the figures in their 8:30 bulletin but my feeling is not many places would have got huge numbers, there could be one or two places which could touch the 15 / 20 cm mark but I doubt if it would be wide spread
@ramkumar_1956 no… It wont..
let us prey god that let Lehar to come near Chennai and remain stationery for some time to give enough rainfall for chennai
ramkumar_1956
it does not appear it will head chennai rather south orissa
ramkumar_1956 from unsymmetrical cloud pattern in sat pic, it looks pacific system moving towards NE, so it won’t effect our Lehr’s intensity and track.
This system was developed very rapidly, which I initially didn’t expect.
sat pic at 00:00, 22/11/2013: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=-8
sat pic at 00:00, 23/11/2013: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
I THINK LEHAR WILL WEAKEN AND THEN CROSS TN COAST AS A DD.
It is impossible to predict the track and intensity now.. let it reach the Andaman Islands’ latitude first
Sud T.nagar
Sudharashan good morning
Rajarathnam Sud T.nagar
good morning !! how’s the weather there ??
Guys, much easier way to track Lehar..
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=92W&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0