857 thoughts on “Helen over, all eyes on Lehar now

  1. Now I am more concerned about Lehr’s intensity as Philippines system sucked all the moisture from Lehr. So it would some time to consolidate.

  2. vagaries update 
    Another Low forms in the Southern Bay on Friday evening, around the 10N 95E region. Initially, parameters show the system (BB-20) heading WNW towards Southern Andaman Islands.
    If the system remains South of 12/13N till the 86E region, there is a chance of it turning WSW (towards Chennai). If it moves above 12/13N, and comes west of 86E, it  would move NW then.

  3. rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur¬†surajsr – Kellys¬†ramisettisrinivasa That’s what i think If it ends up not being a cyclone and a D or DD instead..it will be good..

  4. IMD prediction 
    The low pressure area over Sumatra and adjoining areas of south Andaman sea would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours and further intensify thereafter.

  5. surajsr – Kellys¬†rame1975 – Chennai-Kolathur¬†ramisettisrinivasa¬†Hope it gives some decent rains to save us from water scarcity….

  6. JTWC remarks THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.7E, IS NOW
    LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK,
    THAILAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
    BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA
    INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-FORMED
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
    NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
    SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
    (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
    EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE
    MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES
    CELSIUS) AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THERE IS A GOOD
    CHANCE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    230930Z. //

  7. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.8N 99.8E TO 8.8N 94.3E WITHIN
    THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
    OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
    AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
    220900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N
    99.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS

  8. Helen damaged thousands of hectares of paddy and other Rabi crops in west godavari,krishna districts.Reports say that the rainfall confined only to 4 districts,10 fishermen were found missing from 2 days.

  9. SEL
    Latest shear tendency http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5sht.GIF
    Is it good for the new system ?

  10. rame1975 РChennai-Kolathur kiranreddy SVU Iam from kurnool,doing my b-tech in sri venkateswara university tirupati.

  11. It seems everyone is tired of the boring weather. Expecting good start next week …¬†
    Hope rain gods smile on us ……….!!!!!!!!!

  12. Our hopes are still alive and running… Let us be positive and hope for good rains in the next few weeks .!!!!!!!!!!

  13. Good Morning  Bloggers. 
    The third in the series which am posting as part of possible Lehar tracking. ¬†In the map below you would see a thick Yellow Line which are now ridges which are now going to act as a wall for Lehar’s movement up north. ¬†Depending on how powerful Lehar is going to be become the wall will be either breached or pushed up to what distance either of these two would happen depends on factors that play out as each day passes. ¬†
    Before that Lehar has a minor business to attend.  The small yellow line running perpendicular to Sri Lanka, these are smaller ridges which need to be pushed to join the bigger wall or breached.  In all probabibility I expect it to be breached though that might happen only after Lehar makes a fair bit of westward movement in the next 24 Р48 hours.  
    I have also plotted the possible path which Lehar might take so am hopeful Lehar is going to be benevolent to us this time around.
    In the last known position it is already at 30 knots intensity so expect a depression declared by evening from IMD and hopefully from tomorrow evening we can call her officially Lehar.

  14. Air pressure is the weight of the atmosphere pressing down on the earth. It is measured by a barometer in units called millibars. Most barometers use mercury in a glass column, like a thermometer, to measure the change in air pressure.
    good morning all !

  15. it wil b taking a steady westerly track…new hpa seen near hongkong coast pushed it further… So Overall movement would be W-nw-w til 85-90E.. Chances r becoming bright for n.tn.

  16. Hi sel, first appreciate your forecast on Helen.. well before you told that it will go to machilipatnam.. even all
    Models predicted other places. You are bang on target at the first time itself..

  17. Based on your accuracy .. can we have your forecast for the coming system ( Lehar). I am sure you will be again bang on target this time as well..

  18. Finally a strong system which does not wander with a 25 knot intensity for 3 days. Lehar already having a organised circulation of winds.

  19. good morning Mr Srikanth,  when I logged in  I was looking forward to your post! and here it is!! I find your analysis meaningful and informative and make a lay man like me to get a tip or two. Expect your considered opinion as and when forecasts are updated.

  20. No trace of Helen, Lehar organizing itself decently getting ready to play around with the HPA zones that are lying on its way towards the TN Coast.

  21. can someone share the rain fall figures in AP from Helen.. some areas very close to the point of lanfall would have got some good numbers.. though others areas didnt get much

  22. pypkmsrikanth Actually yesterday, by seeing MJO pattern (rushing towards phase 6) and clould pattern rushing towards pacific system, i am in a bit worry abt pacific systems.
    however by seeing today’s MJO (taken sharp turn towards phase 4) and cloud pattern of paciifc system (unsysmmetrical pattern and N/NE moving, not a threat for BOB systems).
    i also changed my opinion today morning as pacific system is not going to give big threat for Lehr.
    So for Lehr initial hurdle has been reduced.

  23. anyone can tell me whether the system form Philipines sucking the moisture of Lehar as informed by our friend? will it affect¬† Lehar”s movement and strength. Pls inform what is the current position of Lehar?

  24. Lanina¬†Dont need to add the Mr., Lanina. ¬†Call me Sri or Srikanth or Cheeka as some of the bloggers call me. ¬†Am trying my bit in terms of putting up these little thoughts which could be of use to others. ¬†Just like you am also hoping that finally we get the roll of the dice and end up getting decent rains for TN which is now running a deficit meter like the “Soodu Auto Meter”

  25. Intensit¬†increasing to 31knts near the northern quadrant…. No wonder if imd announces it as DD in 11.30am update considering the rapid intensification…

  26. LEHR position @ 5:30 ISt  7.0 N 97.9 E 30 Kts. Seems to have moved NW a bit initially.. waiting for it to enter the low shear and play between ridges

  27. ChandramouliSeetharaman IMD would possibbly update the figures in their 8:30 bulletin but my feeling is not many places would have got huge numbers, there could be one or two places which could touch the 15 / 20 cm mark but I doubt if it would be wide spread

  28. let us prey god that let Lehar to come near Chennai and remain stationery for some time to give enough rainfall for chennai

  29. ramkumar_1956¬†from unsymmetrical cloud pattern in sat pic, it looks pacific system moving towards NE, so it won’t effect¬†our Lehr’s intensity and track.
    This system was developed very rapidly, which I initially didn’t expect.
    sat pic at 00:00, 22/11/2013: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=-8
    sat pic at 00:00, 23/11/2013: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=

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