It is expected to make landfall Friday early morning. As per current forecasts it is expected to make landfall near Kavali. Not much effect is expected for Chennai.
It is expected to make landfall Friday early morning. As per current forecasts it is expected to make landfall near Kavali. Not much effect is expected for Chennai.
im hoping for some rains by some way or the other from this system!!
Would be nice if we get some rain like last system
am sure chennai has 10% impact in diz cyclone… atleast 5cm
wen did last cyclone crossed chennai.. wind greater than 150kms.. though chennai is very unlucky for cyclones 😦
http://www.emirates247.com/news/uae-stormy-weather-update-stay-away-from-sea-wadis-strong-winds-2013-11-20-1.528520
http://www.weather.com/news/flooding-riyadh-saudi-arabia-photos-20131118
riyadh just recieved 2 cms… it causes floods
http://www.sattmet.tmd.go.th/newversion/mergesat.html
our own HELEN from thai met dept
http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/ReportsGenMetnet/Daily/DailyObserved7AM-en.pdf
heavy rain in thailand from current low… it ll enter in to bay and become next cyclone…hope so
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narathiwat nice coastal town.. look at rainf
gtaman2 If i remember right a cyclone crossed over Chennai in 1967/68 November 2nd. with wind speed over 150Km. At that time 4 ships ran aground. One near marina one behind the Port , one north of Port and one near Mahabalipuram. The pressure was 996 Mb.
Magesh_55
Rain has became precious nowadays in chennai. All system will come near and cross chennai or will never have any impact in TN.
good morning friends
Arjunlv-Purasawalkam
hope you dream come true.. we will have some rains but not going to be more than moderate rain
paul abraham
Gud Morning Paul
Good Morning early birds paul and rajarathinam
after a long time ham seeing the red dark clouds
selvam13
Good Morning selvam
finally we all know system is for south andra so any one in south andra in kea blog
I think the system has moved south west. After a long time system has moved from (15.86), (84.66) to (15.50), (83.88). That means system has moved south west I believe.
selvam13
How south it moves, it looks it is not going to go below Kavali at most.. hope some miracle still happens
We should be getting some left over rain i guess with this system., very disappointing
Kea camera is not working.. still struck with the yesterday video
The System is heading for Central AP. JTWC expects the system to develop peak intensity over the next 12 hours and subsequently start to weaken. The Subtropical ridge which weakened over the last day or so is expected to redevelop and push the system towards the coast. As of 2330IST last night the storm was at 15.7N 83.9E.
Based on the last INSAT image the IMD position is 15.5N 83.8E as of 430 IST today morning.
The system is expected to cross around 22nd afternoon.
Finally Good Morning bloggers, though nothing much is going to happen with this system for Chennai, nevertheless it was a good couple of days hoping against hope and expecting it to give something to us
sorry it has moved south west not south east
As per the coordinates given by me , the system has moved south westwards srikanth
pypkmsrikanth
is it going to be central AP or South AP near ongole
Rajarathnam pypkmsrikanth JTWC expects North of Machilipatnam as well, if it happens then it is Central AP
Gud morning all.
It’s time to get back to the reality and pin our hopes for December
What we expected is the repeat of 2008, but received is the repeat of 2012. Worse than 2012
RaijinWeather
NEM looks bleak for chennai.. going to face huge deficit and subsequently water scarcity
RaijinWeather
Raijin, miracle do happen, Today will decide the fate of this system. Even the landfall is kavali, chennai can receive 5 – 10 CM rainfall
RaijinWeather GM Raijin. I expect December to be good for us, my understanding is this season’s cycle is running late by 2 / 3 weeks which I shared yesterday in Whatsapp as well. So the November rains & systems which we should have got has moved to AP, I hope we get our fair share starting with the December 1st week system
RaijinWeather
Though many system develop, nothing seems to come even close to chennai.. very discouraging especially during peak NEM season
selvam13 RaijinWeather
If we are going to get 5 to 10 CM, that itself huge.. but so much cannot be expected during this system
As per your view, them we should have extended monsoon this time. Let’s see what’s in store for us on December.
This is what happens as NEM is always an erratic monsoon. In 2005 we received bounty but many areas in AP did not receive that much rains.. infact the entire coromandel coast from Pamban to vishakapatnam generally gets erratic rainfall pattern..sometimes deluge sometimes drought
Good morning to all. Morning chillness has come down considerably. Revival of NEM? no use of talking about helen as even the southernmost rain bands are not touching Chennai. Worst part is, the next system is for Orissa / WB as per GFS. Sel is right
selvam13 RaijinWeather The system may move WSW not necessarily SW for us to derive benefit. Ideally it would cross between Ongole & Machilipatnam with a path which would take it over Rayalseema towards Karnataka, we will miss out because of that.
Kalyan_nanganallur
Yes… we are in for drought early this year in NEM .. hope some miracle happen and come close to the huge deficiency we already have
ChandramouliSeetharaman
Sadly, we have come to the line of drought this time around.., still optimistic that one system will touch chennai or near to minimize the huge deficiency we have up to this point
RaijinWeather Thats my feeling, though weather does not work on assumptions. If we do not have an extended monsoon this summer woudl be a terrible one for Chennai
Rajarathnam Kalyan_nanganallur i think that is why Selcyclone has gone silent? Systems in succession will result like this only. Anyway the insat pic looks like the system has drifted SE as told by Selvam13. Can we wait for some more time?
Rajarathnam ChandramouliSeetharaman The December 1st week system is as of now destined for Tamil Nadu, lets hope it stays the same way
pypkmsrikanth Rajarathnam ChandramouliSeetharaman
yes we have to pin some hope on it.. as we have time running out for NEM rains
Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam i very strongly feel the system looks weakened now and is slowly pushing south east.
The will will move south west i guesss
ChandramouliSeetharaman Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam Even then Chennai getting benefitted looks bleak. Not even worst models are predicting that way
Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam Its difficult to keep up motivation when things don’t go your way for long periods, so its understandable. JTWC expects the system to weaken after the next 12 hours so if the STR picks up by then and the system does weaken enough to be pushed by the STR down South towards may be Kavali or beyond then yes we have a chance because of the location of the system the path would possibly be more SWS giving us something. There is a lot of Ifs & Buts, hope is the eternal elixir of life so we can always keep expecting
ChandramouliSeetharaman Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam
But this system has lot of twist and turn, as no ome even IMD did not predict it will be cyclone, they said all this time it was only depression then they said it will be cyclone , now they predict to scs.
pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam Sri, the more no. of “ifs” used, more is the weakness of a program-as I read in my ME-CSE. Is it not applicable to our current expectations?
Kalyan_nanganallur ChandramouliSeetharaman Rajarathnam
no way we will be benefited with this system unless dramatic twist happens and it moves further south which looks bleak now.. but have to be optimistic if some thing goes like that. Getting couple of CM’s of rain will be a big boost with this system
Rajarathnam Kalyan_nanganallur ChandramouliSeetharaman Sir, atleast it will boost the morale of our friends including me, not only in Chennai but also from Chennai / TN. Hope is solace but hoping for hope is painful
Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam ChandramouliSeetharaman Blessed are those from the west coast. No storms no heavy winds.. Just pure torrents of rain for 4 solid months
The system is compacting further and further, look at the tail getting smaller compared to yesterday. Also at the bottom you can see the pull effect being exercised by the system near Sumatra. If this system stays stationery and encounters the expected higher Vertical Wind Shear and unfavourable SST then the Sumatra system is going to show its colours to Helen
Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth Rajarathnam Am not a programmer, am one of those guys who do not belong to the digital divide, nevertheless this system was always expected to perform for us only under a lot of constrainted conditions. So you are right in a sense this program was not written for us, we are trying to fit it hoping the problems would vanish
ChandramouliSeetharaman Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam
But unfortunately we depend only on depressions and cyclone to give us some rain even in NEM..
pypkmsrikanth Boss, but the dist between them is more than 6000kms I think. Let me be optimistic!!!!
Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth If you see the expected “Lehar” is already pulling the clouds right of Sri Lanka, depends again on how events pan out
pypkmsrikanth u r explanation is fantastic, this is the clear dynamics between 2 spinning objects.
pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam Sri,have I hurt you in anyway? Sorry if so. By the way, I am also not a programmer!! Did Met.engg grad and ME in CS,job is purely mech
Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth 6000 kms. no way. it would around 300 kms
pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur Yes, I could view in that angle. This is what is called experience. By the way where is our Selcyclone?
14th tropical cyclone at NA base
Tropical storm Melissa – poses no threat to land
I’m not surg if this would change anything but there’s lower shear towards Tamil Nadu than to Andhra..
ramisettisrinivasa Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth Boss, aerial dist may be little less but definitely more than 3000km
-1*c at new haven now!
raj649
which state?
Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth There is nothing called experience, if you would have noticed I have been in the blog only for the last year or so, what I have done in most cases is when people have used terms have tried to figure out what it is all about through google and most importantly people like Sel & PJ have imparted a lot of their knowledge whenever I have managed to catch up with them, the credit has to go to my gurus.
Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth
Still the 2:30 IMD update not out?
One cold wave from coming in from north india that high pressure ridge pushing upto south /central AP should settle cyclone lehar in our favour. Comments ?
pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur this is a very good practice.
So every KEA enthusiastic weather blogger need to learn and practice in understanding complex weather dynamics for the welfare mankind.
yogi2211 The system has faced low VWS so far it would encounter the resistance now with VWS as per JTWC
pypkmsrikanth
there is a good chance for the development of another tropical system in the Bay of Bengal over the weekend. In moving to a favorable environment again, this second storm has the time and potential to become a cyclone also, hitting the same area Helen aims for now courtesy accueather
Accuweather predict the same target as HELEN for the next system
ramisettisrinivasa pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur Yes Rami, it is very easy to ask a question “where is the system? & why is not coming” it is more difficult to find these answers yourself, but getting answers through the joy of discovery and learning is far greater than asking a question and getting the answers from fellow bloggers isnt it
pypkmsrikanth ramisettisrinivasa Kalyan_nanganallur yes u r right sri.
pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur True, Earlier my interest was in rains, now many of our jr bloggers incldg me, have become weatherman in their office, relatives offering consultancy!!!! KEA – thanks
Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth Rajarathnam Not at all Kalyan, was just joking, it is a joke which I play on myself for not getting into IT even though have always been a tech savvy guy, somehow the “talking person in me took over the thinking person” so ended up selling ice to the eskimos’
Rajarathnam pypkmsrikanth This is Lehar in making, lets hope the HPA which am_met is talking off could have a say in where Lehar ends up.
Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth its awesome
pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam Thank God you did not get into IT field. There are umpteen no of jokes about IT personnel – many of them true also!!!
pypkmsrikanth cyclone helen weakening may not be such a bad thing to happen for us. It could possibly lead to HPA ridge strengthening and extending further south. Then when cyclone leher strengthens and absorbs remants of cyclone helen everything would be in place where it should be for TN. Even if this does not at least our hope rope has been extended till sunday at least right ? 🙂
By the way, any news from bloggers residing in S.AP about the current weather conditions?
am_met pypkmsrikanth Helen could be a blessing in disguise for us even though it may not give anything in terms of rains. If the HPA ridge strengthens then Lehar could take a favourable turn for us
am_met pypkmsrikanth good thinking. keep it up.
ramisettisrinivasa am_met pypkmsrikanth Got to look at that forecast for North India plains. I heard there is a cold wave on in certain parts but nothing majr. Also pray that there is no winter rain in the form of western disturbance till our monsoon season gets over.
IMD still maintains the same intensity and land fall point at Ongole (SAP)
IMD report: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf
am_met ramisettisrinivasa pypkmsrikanth Winter rains in north will be in last week of Dec only and will be in very short spells. This is based on my experience in Punjab, Delhi, Rajasthan, UP and Bihar. In Assam it is very very rare to see rains in winter
Rami it is nt stopping its north ward movement
ramisettisrinivasa The other issue is that winter has not set in as it should have in north India thanks to extended monsoon. So I will go with what pypkmsrikanth says about extended NEM. This season could stretch into Jan/Feb if conditions are favourable.
Lehr’s cold and warm fronts are clearly visible in the satellite picture, in gulf of Thailand.
Those who r thinking storm has weakned they r wrong…it has intensified into 60knots with new northern rain bands
am_met ramisettisrinivasa pypkmsrikanth rami, Let the system follow any model. we will follow only that ,model favourable to us.
Helen has decided nt to follow any model and the mystery of cyclones in 2013 continous in bay of bengal
mitansunshine SOI is increased by 0.7 points (i.e from -3.3 to -2.6).
Last 3 values of SOI is -3.3, -3.3 & -2.6
So HELEN quasi stationary for 24 hrs, when SOI values r unchanged. But recent value increased by 0.7 points. So HELEN would keep in W/NW direction till some more time.
SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
SOI is increased by 0.7 points (i.e from -3.3 to -2.6).
Last 3 values of SOI is -3.3, -3.3 & -2.6
So HELEN quasi stationary for 24 hrs, when SOI values r unchanged. But recent value increased by 0.7 points. So HELEN would move and keep in W/NW direction till some more time.
SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
If SOI keeps its increasing trend like this, IMD has to change the landfall point from Ongole to Kakinada/machilipatnam.
However I am confident in IMD’s forecast in track and intensity.