1,182 thoughts on “Severe Cyclonic Storm Helen heading towards S. AP

  1. gtaman2 If i remember right a cyclone crossed over Chennai in 1967/68 November 2nd. with wind speed over 150Km. At that time 4 ships ran aground. One near marina one behind the Port , one north of Port and one near Mahabalipuram. The pressure was 996 Mb.

  2. Magesh_55 
    Rain has became precious nowadays in chennai. All system will  come near and cross chennai or will never have any impact in TN.

  3. Arjunlv-Purasawalkam 
    hope you dream come true.. we will have some rains but not going to be more than moderate rain

  4. I think the system has moved south west. After a long time system has moved from (15.86), (84.66)  to (15.50), (83.88). That means system has moved south west I believe.

  5. selvam13 
    How south it  moves, it looks it is not going to go below Kavali at most.. hope some miracle still happens

  6. The System is heading for Central AP.  JTWC expects the system to develop peak intensity over the next 12 hours and subsequently start to weaken.  The Subtropical ridge which weakened over the last day or so is expected to redevelop and push the system towards the coast.  As of 2330IST last night the storm was at 15.7N 83.9E.  
    Based on the last INSAT image the IMD position is 15.5N 83.8E as of 430 IST today morning.
    The system is expected to cross around 22nd afternoon.
    Finally Good Morning bloggers, though nothing much is going to happen with this system for Chennai, nevertheless it was a good couple of days hoping against hope and expecting it to give something to us

  7. RaijinWeather 
    Raijin, miracle do happen, Today will decide the fate of this system. Even the landfall is kavali, chennai can receive 5 – 10 CM rainfall

  8. RaijinWeather¬†GM Raijin. I expect December to be good for us, my understanding is this season’s cycle is running late by 2 / 3 weeks which I shared yesterday in Whatsapp as well. ¬†So the November rains & systems which we should have got has moved to AP, I hope we get our fair share starting with the December 1st week system

  9. RaijinWeather 
    Though many system develop, nothing seems to come even close to chennai.. very discouraging especially during peak NEM season

  10. selvam13 RaijinWeather 
    If we are going to get 5 to 10 CM, that itself huge.. but so much cannot be expected during this system

  11. This is what happens as NEM is always an erratic monsoon. In 2005 we received bounty but many areas in AP did not receive that much rains.. infact the entire coromandel coast from Pamban to vishakapatnam generally gets erratic rainfall pattern..sometimes deluge sometimes drought

  12. Good morning to all. Morning chillness has come down considerably. Revival of NEM? no use of talking about helen as even the southernmost rain bands are not touching Chennai. Worst part is, the next system is for Orissa / WB as per GFS. Sel is right

  13. selvam13 RaijinWeather The system may move WSW not necessarily SW for us to derive benefit.  Ideally it would cross between Ongole & Machilipatnam with a path which would take it over Rayalseema towards Karnataka, we will miss out because of that.

  14. Kalyan_nanganallur 
    Yes… we are in for drought early this year in NEM .. hope some miracle happen and come close to the huge deficiency we already have

  15. ChandramouliSeetharaman 
    Sadly, we have come to the line of drought this time around.., still optimistic that one system will touch chennai or near to minimize the huge deficiency we have up to this point

  16. RaijinWeather Thats my feeling, though weather does not work on assumptions.  If we do not have an extended monsoon this summer woudl be a terrible one for Chennai

  17. Rajarathnam Kalyan_nanganallur i think that is why Selcyclone has gone silent? Systems in succession will result like this only. Anyway the insat pic looks like the system has drifted SE as told by Selvam13. Can we wait for some more time?

  18. Rajarathnam ChandramouliSeetharaman The December 1st week system is as of now destined for Tamil Nadu, lets hope it stays the same way

  19. pypkmsrikanth Rajarathnam ChandramouliSeetharaman 
    yes we have to pin some hope on it.. as we have time running out for NEM rains

  20. Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam i very strongly feel the system looks weakened now and is slowly pushing south east.
    The will will move south west i guesss

  21. ChandramouliSeetharaman Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam Even then Chennai getting benefitted looks bleak. Not even worst models are predicting that way

  22. Kalyan_nanganallur¬†Rajarathnam¬†Its difficult to keep up motivation when things don’t go your way for long periods, so its understandable. ¬†JTWC expects the system to weaken after the next 12 hours so if the STR picks up by then and the system does weaken enough to be pushed by the STR down South towards may be Kavali or beyond then yes we have a chance because of the location of the system the path would possibly be more SWS giving us something. ¬†There is a lot of Ifs & Buts, hope is the eternal elixir of life so we can always keep expecting

  23. ChandramouliSeetharaman Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam 
    But this system has lot of twist and turn, as no ome even IMD did not predict it will be cyclone, they said all this time it was only depression then they said it will be cyclone , now they predict to scs.

  24. pypkmsrikanth¬†Kalyan_nanganallur¬†Rajarathnam¬†Sri, the more no. of “ifs” used, more is the weakness of a program-as I read in my ME-CSE. Is it not applicable to our current expectations?

  25. Kalyan_nanganallur ChandramouliSeetharaman Rajarathnam 
    no way we will be benefited with this system unless dramatic twist happens and it moves further south which looks bleak now.. but have to be optimistic if some thing goes like that. Getting couple of CM’s of rain will be a big boost with this system

  26. Rajarathnam Kalyan_nanganallur ChandramouliSeetharaman Sir, atleast it will boost the morale of our friends including me, not only in Chennai but also from Chennai / TN. Hope is solace but hoping for hope is painful

  27. Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam ChandramouliSeetharaman Blessed are those from the west coast. No storms no heavy winds.. Just pure torrents of rain for 4 solid months

  28. The system is compacting further and further, look at the tail getting smaller compared to yesterday.  Also at the bottom you can see the pull effect being exercised by the system near Sumatra.  If this system stays stationery and encounters the expected higher Vertical Wind Shear and unfavourable SST then the Sumatra system is going to show its colours to Helen

  29. Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth Rajarathnam Am not a programmer, am one of those guys who do not belong to the digital divide, nevertheless this system was always expected to perform for us only under a lot of constrainted conditions.  So you are right in a sense this program was not written for us, we are trying to fit it hoping the problems would vanish

  30. ChandramouliSeetharaman Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam 
    But unfortunately we depend only on depressions and cyclone to give us some rain even in NEM..

  31. Kalyan_nanganallur¬†pypkmsrikanth¬†If you see the expected “Lehar” is already pulling the clouds right of Sri Lanka, depends again on how events pan out

  32. pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam Sri,have I hurt you in anyway? Sorry if so. By the way, I am also not a programmer!! Did Met.engg grad and ME in CS,job is purely mech

  33. pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur Yes, I could view in that angle. This is what is called experience. By the way where is our Selcyclone?

  34. ramisettisrinivasa Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth Boss, aerial dist may be little less but definitely more than 3000km

  35. Kalyan_nanganallur pypkmsrikanth There is nothing called experience, if you would have noticed I have been in the blog only for the last year or so, what I have done in most cases is when people have used terms have tried to figure out what it is all about through google and most importantly people like Sel & PJ have imparted a lot of their knowledge whenever I have managed to catch up with them, the credit has to go to my gurus.

  36. One cold wave from coming in from north india that high pressure ridge pushing upto south /central AP should settle cyclone lehar in our favour. Comments ?

  37. pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur this is a very good practice.
    So every KEA enthusiastic weather blogger need to learn and practice in understanding complex weather dynamics for the welfare mankind.

  38. pypkmsrikanth
     there is a good chance for the development of another tropical system in the Bay of Bengal over the weekend. In moving to a favorable environment again, this second storm has the time and potential to become a cyclone also, hitting the same area Helen aims for now courtesy accueather
    Accuweather predict the same target as HELEN for the next system

  39. ramisettisrinivasa¬†pypkmsrikanth¬†Kalyan_nanganallur¬†Yes Rami, it is very easy to ask a question “where is the system? & why is not coming” it is more difficult to find these answers yourself, but getting answers through the joy of discovery and learning is far greater than asking a question and getting the answers from fellow bloggers isnt it

  40. pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur True, Earlier my interest was in rains, now many of our jr bloggers incldg me, have become weatherman in their office, relatives offering consultancy!!!! KEA Рthanks

  41. Kalyan_nanganallur¬†pypkmsrikanth¬†Rajarathnam¬†Not at all Kalyan, was just joking, it is a joke which I play on myself for not getting into IT even though have always been a tech savvy guy, somehow the “talking person in me took over the thinking person” so ended up selling ice to the eskimos’

  42. Rajarathnam pypkmsrikanth This is Lehar in making, lets hope the HPA which am_met is talking off could have a say in where Lehar ends up.

  43. pypkmsrikanth Kalyan_nanganallur Rajarathnam Thank  God you did not get into IT field. There are umpteen no of jokes about IT personnel Рmany of them true also!!!

  44. pypkmsrikanth¬† cyclone helen weakening may not be such a bad thing to happen for us. It could possibly lead to HPA ridge strengthening and extending further south. Then when cyclone leher strengthens and absorbs remants of cyclone helen everything would be in place where it should be for TN. Even if this does not at least our hope rope has been extended till sunday at least right ? ūüôā

  45. am_met pypkmsrikanth Helen could be a blessing in disguise for us even though it may not give anything in terms of rains.  If the HPA ridge strengthens then Lehar could take a favourable turn for us

  46. ramisettisrinivasa am_met pypkmsrikanth Got to look at that forecast for North India plains. I heard there is a cold wave on in certain parts but nothing majr. Also pray that there is no winter rain in the form of western disturbance till our monsoon season gets over.

  47. am_met ramisettisrinivasa pypkmsrikanth Winter rains in north will be in last week of Dec only and will be in very short spells. This is based on my experience in Punjab, Delhi, Rajasthan, UP and Bihar. In Assam it is very very rare to see rains in winter

  48. ramisettisrinivasa The other issue is that winter has not set in as it should have in north India thanks to extended monsoon. So I will go with what pypkmsrikanth says about extended  NEM. This season could stretch into Jan/Feb if conditions are favourable.

  49. am_met ramisettisrinivasa pypkmsrikanth rami, Let the system follow any model. we will follow only that ,model favourable to us.

  50. mitansunshine SOI is increased by 0.7 points (i.e from -3.3 to -2.6).
    Last 3 values of SOI is -3.3, -3.3 & -2.6
    So HELEN quasi stationary for 24 hrs, when SOI values r unchanged. But recent value increased by 0.7 points. So HELEN would keep in W/NW direction till some more time.

    SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

  51. If SOI keeps its increasing trend like this, IMD has to change the landfall point from Ongole to Kakinada/machilipatnam.
    However I am confident in IMD’s forecast in track and intensity.

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