770 thoughts on “Met says rains may lash South from Thursday – The Hindu Business Line : Mobile Edition

  1. Probably met picked it up from ECMWF – which is extremely bullish about rains for us and it talks of solid rainfall for the entire state for a week or so…whereas GFS is pushing it to Monday..and later.

  2. In fact 30W is very different system (not like phailin). It gives more challenge for weather models in terms of intensity and track.
    According to my expectation it shouldn’t go beyond NTN and SAP landfall.

  3. As it would be in organizing state for next 48 h, 30W still follows West to south-west path and enter south central BOB around SE to TN (Chennai)  and NE to Srilanka.
    From there it would starts its journey towards Chennai by flowing west to north-west/ north to north-west direction???

  4. Yes.. Tat particular area has got ocean thermal energy exceeding 70kj, sst 29, very high tchp and moreover shear bit relaxed at mid-upper level.. Tats y it had a severe ts organisation..

  5. surajsr it might be possible to some extent if 30W comes closer to TN. however follow-up systems would come to TN in the last week November  or 1st week of December.
    One good spell like recent AP’s rainfall enough to cover the deficit.

  6. BOB’s SST anomalies also conductive for 30W to move west to south-west initially. then north-west towards Chennai. SST anomalies are not favorable for the system to go beyond NTN/SAP.

  7. Will it take almost Nilam’s path ?Or else are there any chances of it to take Nisha’s path if it reaches near Sri Lankan coast?

  8. TN would get NISHA-2008 type in last week November/first week December (before 15th at least). Its sure we will be having one NISHA this year.

  9. Good morning friends. As per latest insat pic, it is organising into a cyclone and moving sw probably heading to Nagai. Again different models give different pictures. It appears Selcyclone and Ramisrinivas are tracking this 30W well. Let us hope for best

  10. Kalyan_nanganallur 30W is very different cyclone and challenging for regular models in prediction of intensity and track.

  11. dinuarcher Selcyclone mitansunshine ya.. imd gfs will get a update by 11am.. no use it will be the same gfs update tat v get it early on weatheronline,tropical tidbits..

  12. jon mount Selcyclone yes jon.. the ridge twrds northeast is moving west…still it din takeover the steering…once it gets,system will start moving west-nw…

  13. jon mount Selcyclone yes…jma expecting it to crash into s.central ap…ecmwf expecting it to move central bay…anyway tis is just the initial forecast… 20 possible could occur.

  14. Any possibility of moisture being driven into our system from the system forming near Sumatra, by way of cross equatorial flow?

  15. mitansunshine 
    May continue WSW for maybe one or two more updates and then start moving perfect west followed by WNW.

  16. Selcyclone Any chances of dry air availability for this system from the surrounding , I am bit worried that should not be the case

  17. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 30W) PREVIOUSLY
    LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 89.5E
    so it has moved WSW

  18. GokulTamilselvam Selcyclone partially strengthend in last 48hrs,, exactly over phase 3,tat favours bay of bengal…  http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

  19. jon mount KarthikStorm_T.Nagar 
    Yes, rains are concentrated towards the northern bands in forecasts. Even now, it has much better defined northern banding.
    Something around Pondicherry or Cuddalore would be ideal.

  20. atharwasim1 Even the Business Line news article has said that the approaching Western Disturbance might take the rains to Orissa

  21. ramisettisrinivasa Hope a ridge develops to the north of the system and take it into our Bay Of Bengal //////////////

  22. GokulTamilselvam ramisettisrinivasa INITIAL FORECAST SUGGEST TAT IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO BAY…MAJOR MODELS ECMWF,JMA,GFS BRINGS IT INTO BAY

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