525 thoughts on “NEM rains could make a return by Friday

  1. Gud morning all.
    All the parameters are shaping well for tamilnadu to get very gud rains starting from 15th. Expecting the current system to hit central tn so that whole of tn will have very widespread rainfalls

  2. Today earthquake woke me up early. The magnitude is 5.5 in jma scale and the epicente is close to Tokyo. Felt strong for 15 seconds.

  3. This is the second such earthquake on one week time. Last Sunday also we had an earthquake of magnitude 4 in jma scale in the same place. Siice the depth is 10km we felt huge shake similar to today
    I am little worried that earthquake with epicentre vey close to Tokyo is occurring frequently. Usually the Northern Japan will have its epicentres and we will felt a strong.
    As per the seismologists, a bigger earthquake for Tokyo is due after 1923 kanto earthquake which completely destroyed Tokyo

  4. I am little worried that earthquake with epicentre vey close to Tokyo is occurring frequently. Usually the Northern Japan will have its epicentres and we will felt a strong.As per the seismologists, a bigger earthquake for Tokyo is due after 1923 kanto earthquake which completely destroyed Tokyo

  5. Gfs has been consistently pushing the system south, the haian effect is being felt till 16th over Vietnam, each passing day gives me lesser confidence with the system giving Chennai rains. Central and South Tamilnadu could benefit.

  6. Future scenario: 30 W and Sumatra trough both would merge in next 24-48 hrs. and resultant system would emerge south central BOB.
    MJO & SOI are already showing good recovery and becoming favorable (due to weakening of Haiyan) to host a good system.
    MJO entered phase 3 (close to south BOB).
    Also it looks like SOI has stalled and not declining further. Expecting SOI to show slight increasing trend, that too below “0” (good for BOB systems to survive).
    MJO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
    SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

  7. pypkmsrikanth 
    thanks cheeka 🙂 I’m hoping this will be a very wet wave similar to the one in 2005 November 1st week… We need something to revive NEM

  8. MJO is just like power grid:
    As of now MJO looks good. however majority MJO future models are showing decline in amplitude (may vary). That means the reduction in amplitude would be utilized by present or future system (generating east of Philippines). We hope the energy released by MJO would be utilized majorly by 30W rather than pacific system.
    for example: sudden decline in amplitude around November 4-7, was utilized majorly by typhoon Haiyan, rather than Arabian system.
    MJO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
    850 mb vorticity: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

  9. Good Morning! May somebody explain to me! as per BBC the track of rain looks to be towards northwest bay where as the LPA is in the south central bay. what does this mean? Please

  10. Lanina Always the clouding is seen i northern bands during NEM. And it will be in south west quadrant during SWM.
    The High shear in the outerbands will create lot of thunderstorms. Remember shear will tear cyclone / systems. But it is good for Thunderstorms in the outerbands.

  11. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS. BAY OF BENGAL: A LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.0 AND CENTERED NEAR 14.0¡ãN/95.0¡ãE.
    ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTHWEST ANDAMAN SEA. THE SYSTEM MAY BE WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 24 HRS.

  12. Pj,5 days, 120hrs.. Now the Landfall point differs by morethan 700kms… Gfs vs ecmwf ., would b real surprise ,if ecmwf 12.30 update sticks with samepoint. Of landfall..

  13. keaweather I dont follow it. Please understand the links. This meteogram is based on GFS. The Cola is also based on GFS.
    The difference is Cola is updated only once in 12 hrs. The above meteogram is updated every 6 hrs when GFS model is updated.
    There is no german model…lol.

  14. Hrishi_TrvyurHrishi NCMWRF is derived from GFS. The one NCMWRF is showing is a completely new system coming into bay. (Pulse from 32 W) around 18th

    See the GFS then interpolate with NCMWRF. Remember NCMWRF is updated only every 12 hrs but GFS every 6 hrs. So check the current time for comparison. It will be same.

    NCMWRF showing only srilanka on 13th.

    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/F_574_CH-05.htm
    Jon ji. NCMWRF and GFS are same.

  15. Just see weather.com . The chance for rain on 15th and 16th is 100 percent .17th and 19th is 80 percent.18th is 90 percent.it is just so amazing to see this

  16. ECMWF maintaining North TN landfall.
    Someone was asking why i trust ECMWF of the all models.

    EMX is the ECMWF model. From 2008, it the No.1 model with least error in landfall.

    FFSE –
    Florida State University Super Ensemble-  consensus
    model combining data from the following five interpolated models and one
    consensus model: GFDI, GFSI, GUNA (consensus of GFDI, UKMI, NGPI and GFSI),
    OFCI and UKMI).
    GUNA – A consensus model combining data
    from a number of interpolated models. For 2010, those models were AVNI, GFDI, NGPI and UKMI. The
    acronym dates back to 1998 when the old GUNS consensus model (GFDL, UKMET and
    NOGAPS) added the aviation model part of GFS (AVNO) to create GUNA

  17. NRL tropical cyclone page updates the system at present at 12. 9 north & 91 east.  so the system has crossed andaman and now placed west of portblair. going by the conditions, this would get relocated to 10 or 11 north and from their, it would start gaining strength.  may be by tomorrow.  The system would bring useful rains to chennai & TN.  The shear is very less close to tamil nadu coast, as the high pressure zone prevails over machli latitude.  So chances of movemen towards north not likely.  already good cloud cover over extreme south east bay.  This needs to be tracked and possibly this system would wipe out lot of defeict of NE rains over tn.
    ss.

  18. Hi Guys,
    Iam totally frustrated with these models prediction. Let the rain god decides. 
    Yesterday Model Prediction:
    CMC – South/Central TN Lanfall
    NAVGEM – Central TN Landfall
    After 12 Hours 
    CMC – Changed the Landfall to N.AP/Orissa
    NAVGEM – Changed the Landfall to N.AP

    How this much difference in 12 hours model run? These models are terrible beyond 2 to 3 days.. Also rain god is not at all having mercy on poor TN farmers. 😦 😦

  19. Good afternoon to all.some cloud bands near north TN coast.
    Chennai has 22cm deficient and chennai AP has 15cm deficient.lets hope rain could return by 15th as per kea topic and there after v can reach normal rainfall.

  20. decent chance of cyclone in bay as per jtwc. circulation is exactly parallel to chennai
    THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 30W) PREVIOUSLY
    LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 93.4E THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM

  21. navgem,cmc analysis is not likely.. Haiyan is strongly pushing pushing the ridge from NE.. Tat wil only make further w-sw and not n-nw..

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