554 thoughts on “Severe water scarcity a real possibility as NEM rains are delayed

  1. s_velayudhamOur Steering expert Selva is vouching for a cyclone. 
    I am also expecting it to become a Named cyclone, Models will in future show a strong system as times shorten further. The effect of HPA and dry wind flow is not expected to be so great on our system as expected earlier.
    As posted earlier, the steering will make the system to come to North TN.

  2. Srikanth ji. Its too early. You have joined the pessimistic camp headed by Ehsan ji. 
    There is good capacity of water available in Veernam, Redhills and we have Desalination Plant.
    Not sure about water scarcity.

  3. Depression in Arabian sea is moving slowly and has intensified.Satellite image shows an organized cloud mass persistent over the center.The shear remains low-moderate with decreasing tendency to the west.There is some probabillity of it reaching a cyclonic storm  as its moving slowly towards the coast which would provide some time for intensification.Most models are continuing to spin a tropical storm before landfall.

  4. vinodh1986 rame1975 Vagaries have predicted good rainfall for Chennai next week starting from 13th and lasting 4 or 5 days..

  5. vagaries Sir. As we discussed. You have put if the system remains below 15 N.  Getting scared it may intensify too much and the upper level winds will drag it away from TN.
    Sir, what will be the expected intensity. ECMWF is expecting it to strengthen with a wind speed of 55 knots.

  6. PradeepJohn vagaries i would put it at depression, or a shade lower…but, remember, we get more rains from a depression…and current conditions envisage good rainfall from system for interiors too….

  7. The system in Andaman sea still maintaining some shape.There is no big thunderstorm associated with it but there are spiraling midlevel clouds.Wind shear is moderate near the system so development will be slow.It slowly organize and move towards TN coast.

  8. vagaries Ok Sir. Just one more. 
    Is the HPA  during 13-14th in northern bay expected to play key role in limiting the system to be below 15 N

  9. rame1975http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?ACTIVES=13-WPAC-30W.THIRTY,13-WPAC-31W.HAIYAN&SIZE=Thumb&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=wp&ATCF_YR=2013&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2013/wp312013.13110812.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2013/wp312013.13110812.gif&CURRENT=20131108.1830.mtsat-2.x.ir1km_bw.31WHAIYAN.125kts-929mb-125N-1179E.100pc.jpg&CURRENT_ATCF=wp312013.13110812.gif&ATCF_NAME=wp312013&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2013&AGE=Latest&MO=NOV&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2013&YR=13&BASIN=WPAC&STORM_NAME=31W.HAIYAN&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/WPAC/31W.HAIYAN/vapor/geo/1km&PROD=vapor&SUB_PROD=1km&TYPE=geoTo the west of phillipines.

  10. PradeepJohn vagaries my opinion is that the HPA is normal for this time in Bay (see NEM Watch -1)…but the trough in the Southern Bay should steer the system westwards… east west trough should be strong enough

  11. NASA sat image : This is visible image of Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines was taken from the MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite on Nov. 6 at 11:25 p.m. EDT. Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team

  12. There is another disturbance to the far east of Philippines.Conditions are favorable for it to organize amd would move west-northwest towards phillipines.

  13. vinodh1986 PradeepJohn  Final Question … Do not mistake me. 

    If that becomes a cyclonic storm what will be our chances ? and which direction will it move ??

  14. rame1975 if it becomes a minimal cyclone then it will move towards us,if it becomes a strong one then our chance is quite less.Difficult to say now.

  15. rame1975 yes, phillipines normally gets lot of storms.Indonesia gets lot of rains from disturbances which develops into a cyclone and moves into southern hemisphere.

  16. wish the topic does not turn to be a reality ………………….
    mazhai vara ella sami kittayum Pray pannuvom !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. typhoon 32w would be less intensity than haiyan. so it would be next BOB system to follow 30W around 19-20 November. Haiyan won’t generate any pulse in BOB.

  18. rame1975 ramisettisrinivasa 32W create pulse in BOB, which may further intensifies. If it becomes cylone, then name will be given.

  19. ramisettisrinivasa rame1975 Let us see what happens ……..
    If that happens it will be good… if it gives good rainfalll

  20. Good morning to all.
    This climate is not like NEM at all and SWM is much better than NEM.
    The current situation is like febrauary.
    The diff is min temp in feb it wil b 20 r below now it is in 22 above and max temp is same as like feb 30,31.

  21. Good morning to all.this climate is not like NEM at all and SWM is much better than NEM.the current situation is like febrauary.the diff is min temp in feb it wil b 20 r below now it is in 22 and above and max temp is same as like feb 30,31.

  22. In SWM v r happy in mrng somehow by notifying the TS formation and notify rain in evening and night.
    But now the large and thick cumulus not forming because of no TROUGH,DD,LP.only some cumulus forming in sky that is not thick clouds.
    I am much worried about NEM failure in 2013.

  23. 850 mb vorticity looks very good for 30W
    vorticity: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
    however system 30W to show signs of rapid recovery, SOI must show slight increasing trend. The decreasing trend is not good for any system in BOB to become strong. Past 3-4 days SOI decreased by 1.5
    MJO still not bad.
    SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png
    MJO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

  24. PJ the drinking water reservoirs are at half of last year’s level.
    If we do not clear the deficit by November we are seriously in trouble.

  25. For S-W Arabian sea depression, 90A, JTWC issues”SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH”At present the Sea level pressure for”90A”is around 1003mb … classified as Marked LOW.But latest Satellite IR at 7:30pm shows that the system has”Intensified”into a Depression …http://ow.ly/i/3FhRv “90A”is moving West and fast towards Somalia coast… expected to make landfall as”Cyclone”on Saturday evening or Sunday.
    source from Indianweatherman

  26. arabian system & typhoon haiyan should cross the coast or to become weak, for 30W to become more organised.

  27. Not being pessimistic.. but the hope of a heavy downpour is pretty low during this NEM.  I was at the beach last night and the nippy air reminded me of early December weather and not Nov weather conditions. Let us pray and hope for at least for 5-6 days of good rainfall

  28. continuous typhoons in pacific disturbed the NEM wind pattern. however from 15th, November onward situation would become more conductive for good rains.

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