Dry weather expected to continue for few more days..Cooler nights possible till Sunday.

keaweather 2013, KEA Blog, NEM13

Dry weather is expected to continue for atleast another week. Few systems are possible later this  month.

Topic contributed by Shiva (Novaknole)

235 thoughts on “Dry weather expected to continue for few more days..Cooler nights possible till Sunday.”

  2. Good News – Latest ECMWF most Reliable model shows DD hitting TN

    The 30 W Remnants is going to atleast become Deep Depression and  for the first time ECMWF is showing it as a significant system for consistently for over 4 days
    Landfall at TN on 15th

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  7. Without rain temperature 24.7.as per kea topic this cool weather will continue till sunday.heavy rain starts from 14th.lets hope chennai will get the normal rainfall.

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  8. Without rain temperature 24.7.as per kea topic this cool weather will continue till sunday.heavy rain starts from 14th.lets hope chennai will get the normal rainfall.till now nunga has 19cm and meena has 8cm deficit.

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  9. Good Morning friends. I’m Rajan, a ‘Met Novice’ and so,
    pardon my bloopers. As a Sr.V.P.of an IT major, the only clouds I knew the past
    23 years, were the virtual data and storage farms. Been dabbling with learning
    about Metrology for the past 10 months and a good friend pointed me to this
    blog. Look forward to healthy interactions with all you wonderful folks. On to
    Tropical Depression 30, here is one more view to the already mixed bag of
    predictions.
    http://www.cyclocane.com/thirty-storm-tracker/

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  13. The system in arabian sea is slowly organizing.Lot of thunderstorms are developing close to center.Most of models are now spinning a weak cyclone as it nears the coast of africa. verticle wind shear remains low -moderate with

    The disturbance over gulf of thailand has intensified and now its interacting with the land which would cause weakening temporarily. .The system is tracking under the influence of STR high over the coast of china.Wind shear remains low over the system.Further intensification would take place after reaching bay of bengal.

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  15. 30w would b in andaman sea in another 3 to 4 hrs… Convection seen building around it,sign of intensifying.. Sst is warm enough ,shear too decreasing…..

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  17. PradeepJohn 895 Mb is estimation by JMA .Dvork estimation puts it on par or very close to super typhoon TIP.

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  20. Haiyan could be the strongest storm ever to make landfall  with maximum winds speed over 190 mph.Lets wait for the ground reading.It should be able to beat hurricane camille which produced winds around 190 mph during landfall.

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  22. It seems Haiyan reached max of 315 kmph  some 6 hours ago before slightly weakening and making landfall in phillipines.

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  25. Sel, vinodh, Pj
    What is the difference between tropic tidbits and weather online. Their representation of gfs run luks different from each other. Which should be followed?

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  26. I was luking mslp and preciparuin rate in tropical tidbits charts and precipitation in weather online. Are both are same or is there any diff?

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  28. All models analysis for the Make or Break System for Chennai for the 15th November System.
    ——————————————————-

    Never Ever all models have agreed same Landfall so early.  Hope this gives this the bloggers much needed relief. Order of the models based on the reliability
    1. ECMWF – Target North / Central TN on 14th November

    2. GFS – Target  North TN on 15th November. Chennai directly hit


    3. CMC – Target North  TN on 14th November. Chennai directly hit


    4. Navygem –  Central TN on 14th November

    5.Ukmet – Available till 10th November

    6.BBC
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/1264527

    7. NOAA NCEP NWP

    8.JMA – Available only till 10th November

    9.Taiwan Model – Available  only till 11th

    10.Australian Acesss Model – North TN on 14th November
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=168&focus=mh

    11.NCMWRF GFS – Srilanka on 14th November
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/rain8.htm
    12.IMD GFS – Srilnaka / Central  TN on 14th September
    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_850wind.htm
    13.IMD WRF – Available only till 10th November
    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/72wrf_850wind.htm

    14.NCMWRF Unified Model – TN on 14th November
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/Unified-model/forecast/UM_CH-16.htm
    15. COAMPS – Available only till 9th November

    16.RHMC – Available only till 10th November

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  29. Pj, add tis too.. Atmos albany central TN,jma xtended monthly outlook tat released on november 1 also shows system hitting n.central tn during 2nd week…

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  35. @Pj…Excellent analysis,,, brings us lot of hope as you said, with hope comes the expectation.  Let us pray for this to happen.

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  38. PradeepJohn 
    Pradeep, More than the bloggers, i will more than happy for you if if we get a bountiful from here on ..

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  42. sailudavey 
    Sailesh-Actually, never wanted to post a topic saying-Its gona be dry for few days etc…No other go…What to do…Conditions are like that….Hoping for the reversal and would be happier to post something like..Deluge to continue as DD shows no signs of drifting away from our coast ..

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  45. Whoa, that is some compilation. Thanks a ton for the painstaking efforts. For me, this is a great eye opener of the various sites from which info can be drawn for my learning and analytics. Thanks again.

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  48. When Nasa’s satellite flew over Typhoon Haiyan on Nov 6th… The data revealed that rain was falling at a rate of over 100mm/~3.9 inches per hour around Haiyan’s eye.

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  50. 1 dead as strongest typhoon of the year slams Philippineshttp://www.thehindu.com/news/international/world/1-dead-as-strongest-typhoon-of-the-year-slams-philippines/article5328900.ece?homepage=true

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  51. Oh Absolutely. In fact, amongst other sources, I have been using this site a lot for my learnings for the past 6 months (before deciding to take the plunge to join all you great guys on the blog 🙂 )

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  52. system entered bay at 12.5 north & 99 east.  it has to considerably relocate to south around 10 north so that it can travel west/north west to reach TN coast around at least 12 north 85 east.  Otherwsie again there is a great possibility fo system travel towards orissa. but now we also need to keep track of another big system over philippians which is very strong and it it follows a straigt westerly course, then it would reach bay of bengal around 10 North which would be better for TN Coast.  Another 2 days time,a clear picture would emerge.  we might expect change of wether from Monday, if things work favourbale to TN
    ss.

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  54. Novak Nole 
    i saw the picture posted by you the system near srilanka.I thinks crossed near nagapattinam.please explain where its crossed

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  61. what is the prediction for next week it will be last chance for Chennai for rain.I t would not happens monsoon failure for chennai.

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  64. mvinothprassana They may be busy with their official work and inbetween they will read the comments to update themselves of the blog.

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  67. RaijinWeather  
    Thank you for your update.Why these Year so dry for chennai what is going wrong.This is the first time i have seen long dry period.The temperature is on higher side.

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  70. mvinothprassana   http://blog.keaweather.in/kea-weather-blog-rules/  Kindly read this page and all the comments on this page before asking a question

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  71. PradeepJohn Wonderful Compilation, as I mentioned in Whatsapp, this system is more or less certain to hit Nagai or south of it.  We will surely get good rainfall depending on the band formation

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  74. As of now the outer bands don’t seem to touch Chennai.  This is the IMD forecast for 14th based on 5:30 IST parameters of yesterday.  Lets hope in the next run there is some better news for us.

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  76. mvinothprassana pypkmsrikanth The 5:30 IST run has not been out yet by IMD, once it is done one of us here would update in the blog.  
    Also using All Caps is not right way of blogging, please refrain from using all Caps

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  77. mvinothprassana Under normal circumstances with wintery conditions the possibility of rains are lesser, nevertheless we should get some rains from the systems that would form in the Bay before this years NEM completes its course

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  79. Here we go-
    THE AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TD 30W) PREVIOUSLY
    LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 99.5E,
    APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND
    A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 080230Z AMSU-B
    MICROWAVE IMAGE, ALONG WITH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
    REVEALS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE LLCC
    CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS
    ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE
    ENVIRONMENT AS DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY
    MODERATE LEVELS (10-15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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  80. mitansunshine I expect the area of convection to reach the Andaman Sea in the next couple of hours, the next couple of days are crucial for the system to gain some strength.

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  81. mvinothprassana 
    Last chance??? surely not..Can expect systems from the bay till December end..The last five or six years bears testimony to that. We had Thane in the last week of December few years back.

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  82. Yes pypkmsrikanth i think it will be over Andaman sea within next 6 hr…bt the only concern is shear which is in increasing tendency in its path bt in decreasing over south west bay…

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  84. Scattered cloud cover here in Bhubaneswar…sun is playing hide n seek….seems like little mostiure is still present in air

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  88. Mitan… We need to keep tracking this for further devolepments!!! I am not able to get this report from jtwc…they seem to keep tracking haiyan alone…can u please the link for this report

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  91. sailudavey THE AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TD 30W) PREVIOUSLY
    LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 99.5E,
    APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND
    A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 080230Z AMSU-B
    MICROWAVE IMAGE, ALONG WITH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
    REVEALS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE LLCC
    CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS
    ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE
    ENVIRONMENT AS DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY
    MODERATE LEVELS (10-15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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  92. Sailesh–Look for AB1010 under Indian Ocean…(JTWC)  The report is there.. Both text and Sat image are given.

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  100. gopal666 PradeepJohn  great job to keep the hope live. Next week this time we will be more thankful for the job u did

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