Based on 500 Hpa winds I can see two systems over the week, the first one east of Lanka which is expected to give good rains to South Tamil Nadu and Kerala, this would possibly cross between Somalia and Yemen after 10th.North Tamil Nadu could be in for a dry period consequent to this.
Now comes the worse part I see the second system drifting ontohe bay
Super heavy rains here in Anna West! With amazing winds.. The trees look like they’re flying :O the rain looks very consistent so hopefully it would continue like this for sometime.
Good morning.rained for 20mins in ambattur heavily.today it will continue to b like this passing showers and as per in tamilnews and imd rain will continue heavily in coastal Tamilnadu.let enjoy NEM rains.
Power
of MJO:
Due to MJO phase 1’s good amplitude, the present system would
survive for longer time with good intensity. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
However some models showing MJO will be bypassing (not entering)
phase 2 towards phase 5. If this happens the system entering to BOB would
travel more towards north & north-west, thus skipping from TN coast.
If MJO enters phase 2 (with good amplitude, we can expect the
system towards TN or at least N TN/S AP coasts. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Good morning.rained for 20mins in ambattur heavily.today it will continue to b like this passing showers and as per in tamilnews and imd rain will continue heavily in coastal Tamilnadu.let enjoy NEM rains.
Note for Kea..As of now we have separate pages for, bloggers RG, Contest page, Rain fall data page, Kar files etc..How about opening separate pages for school holiday questions, Will it rain in my area, what time will it rain in my area, Exclusive pages for those who claim n fear of NEM failure, Negative comments special page (The PESSIMIST’s page)..Kindly note..This page is not for the blog owner.
Hope few of my suggestions will be taken care off..Thanks.
It was monster rain last night for 10 mints in Madambakkam… How much did it rain in Tambaram???
Karthik Raghavan’s RG shows just 5 mm. I feel it should be more…
Imd said yesterday heavy rain possible to chennai also but heavy rain only pondicherry to nagai belt only.Here some rain in yesterday night and today early morning.
Always rains in pondicherry to nagapattinam belts .But Chennai to tindivanam belts get rarely rain. why? what is the reason http://www.livefyre.com/profile/22758531/ ji please tell the fact
Any rainfall figures of less than 5 centimeters with in 12 or 24 hours insignificant for monsoon season. Even thundershowres during summer can fect not less than 5 centimeters of rain some time. these are all not to be reckoned for any reporting or discussions. but we will have ploenty of such heavy spells in the days to come.
ss.
Vinay cyclones are really unpredictably…there track and intensity only can b identified when they form…still in ma opinion it will b a cat1 NT more dan that…lets see
mitansunshine u could c the hpa influence and system position is placed near south-southeasterly quadrant of hpa…so westerly movement will be seen althru its lifecycle,,,… scenario will change only if ther is change in position of hpa.
Sel the system is at Chennai latitude whent surfaces in the bay, by wednesday we will have clearer picture, but one thing is for sure the first fortnight is going to be poor
pypkmsrikanth ya..almost fortnight but last two days could be gamechanger.. i mean
(13th,14th)… an dnow ther is a circulation near indonesia waters.. hav to b tracked
Radar shows heavy for pondicherry to nagapattinam belts from evening continous heavy rain.But chennai to tindivam no rain possible only cloudy conditions
KeaWeather Archives 
good morning guys
very big cumulus over north but it moved away my area hope today also lot of cumulus clouds form
another cumulus forming over ne
continue forming of clouds its dark clouds in it rain possible in few minutes
all the clouds moving without touching our area oh my god
Based on 500 Hpa winds I can see two systems over the week, the first one east of Lanka which is expected to give good rains to South Tamil Nadu and Kerala, this would possibly cross between Somalia and Yemen after 10th.North Tamil Nadu could be in for a dry period consequent to this.
Now comes the worse part I see the second system drifting ontohe bay
now dark clouds towards us hope heavy showers possible now windy Also
Good morning Paul
very dark clouds moving and gale force winds
srikanth sir
so no chances system moving towards north Tamilnadu
drizzles started here with gale force winds. very dark over east
super dark here with light drizles heavy rain may in few minutes
Thats my assumption Paul I might be wrong though because models like ECMWF are showing a system towards north TN / south TN
heavy rainfall with big drops its playing stop start stop start
very big drops with winds bright in north its passing showers
stopped start stop start its playing oh my god
poured very heavily in adam.. expecting meena to record atleast 25-30mm
gud news.. rains expected from 13th. we mite see a lp/dep crossing tn around 15-16th
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/city-weather/city/91X290/chennai.html?tx_mgcityweatherstatic_pi4%5Bp%5D=1
Super heavy rains here in Anna West! With amazing winds.. The trees look like they’re flying :O the rain looks very consistent so hopefully it would continue like this for sometime.
Just as I say that, in starts to weaken 😛
enjoy the rain guys but here only big dross with heavy rainfall for few minutes
No rain in central chennai .but it is very dark
Are there any chances for rain in royapettah
bright with dark clouds over west hope another cumulus form soon
Asadsayeed difficult to say Asad. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out
Good morning.rained for 20mins in ambattur heavily.today it will continue to b like this passing showers and as per in tamilnews and imd rain will continue heavily in coastal Tamilnadu.let enjoy NEM rains.
Power
of MJO:
Due to MJO phase 1’s good amplitude, the present system would
survive for longer time with good intensity.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
However some models showing MJO will be bypassing (not entering)
phase 2 towards phase 5. If this happens the system entering to BOB would
travel more towards north & north-west, thus skipping from TN coast.
If MJO enters phase 2 (with good amplitude, we can expect the
system towards TN or at least N TN/S AP coasts.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Had a super mini spell here in Anna Nagar West for about 10 minutes. Intensity was very good.
Rainfall in mm Till now from the easterlies
Poonamalle – 27
Poondi Agro – 17
Kolapakkam – 16
Ellapuram – 14
Guindy – 14
Taramani – 13
Ennore – 12
Kancheepuram – 12
Cheyyur – 12
Chennai – 11
Chennai AP – 10
Katupakkam – 10
Madhavaram – 7
Avadi – 6
Katpadi – 4
Kaveripakkam – 4
RK Pet – 3
Mailam – 3
Good morning.rained for 20mins in ambattur heavily.today it will continue to b like this passing showers and as per in tamilnews and imd rain will continue heavily in coastal Tamilnadu.let enjoy NEM rains.
schools holiday in pudhuchery
because due to heavy rainfall
paul abraham Paul, can you pls combine your messages. This comment is unnecessary really.
@keaweather @paul abraham
sorry kea
Note for Kea..As of now we have separate pages for, bloggers RG, Contest page, Rain fall data page, Kar files etc..How about opening separate pages for school holiday questions, Will it rain in my area, what time will it rain in my area, Exclusive pages for those who claim n fear of NEM failure, Negative comments special page (The PESSIMIST’s page)..Kindly note..This page is not for the blog owner.
Hope few of my suggestions will be taken care off..Thanks.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatglobe-wv.htm
is there any chance for rain today?
Admin. Forgot to add..Another page for.. Is there any chance for rain today questions. !!!
It was monster rain last night for 10 mints in Madambakkam… How much did it rain in Tambaram???
Karthik Raghavan’s RG shows just 5 mm. I feel it should be more…
30 w expected to enter bay waters.
1st November Rainfall (Ended on 2nd November 8.30am)
Parrys – 26 mm
Thiruvootiyur – 32 mm
2nd November Rainfall (Ended on 3rd November 8.30am)
Parrys – 45 mm
Thiruvootiyur – 51 mm
3rd November Rainfall (Ended on 4th November 8.30am)
Parrys – 21 mm Thiruvootiyur – 16 mm
radar pictures shows rains to Pondicherry, Cuddalore,Villupuram,Chidambaram areas get heavy rain from earlier mornings .
prabhumk how far is Madambakkam to Tambaram? There could be a big difference even in 1 km radius
BBC forecast shows heavy rain from Wednesday night for chennai
Today gfs shows cyclone hitting north tamilnadu.Yesterday its andhra,before yesterday orissa
Imd said yesterday heavy rain possible to chennai also but heavy rain only pondicherry to nagai belt only.Here some rain in yesterday night and today early morning.
Always rains in pondicherry to nagapattinam belts .But Chennai to tindivanam belts get rarely rain. why? what is the reason http://www.livefyre.com/profile/22758531/ ji please tell the fact
Why no comments lot of people listening but why all silent please update the comments.
@ kea : it should be 6-7km from tambaram.
pypkmsrikanth
no it would impact north tamilnadu
@ vela sir:
so central and north chennai receiving gud rains for the past 3 days.gud to hear.
When did we can expect heavy rains. This one of the worst monsoon i had seen .
Towards evening
Vinay see till 12th there will b no significant rain and after dar all depends upon the system
vinay nandambakkam There is nothing much to report about. Ppl are hoping and waiting for some good news.
keaweather vinay nandambakkam
how many cms rain in pondi,cuddalore
mitansunshine
I can’t Understand these (bt will NT b so heavy)
Any rainfall figures of less than 5 centimeters with in 12 or 24 hours insignificant for monsoon season. Even thundershowres during summer can fect not less than 5 centimeters of rain some time. these are all not to be reckoned for any reporting or discussions. but we will have ploenty of such heavy spells in the days to come.
ss.
Future cyclone will move west bt wnw movement cant be ruled out
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_925wind.htm
Good morning
RG has recorded 9.65mm
mitansunshine
what you thinking it will impact north tamilnadu
Vinay the shower u r getting nw r jst passing shower so no big hope expected from it so need to wait for a system to trigger heavy rain
mitansunshine kindly see for 500mb winds and justify ur point…
Vinay It may b severe as may head towards chennai
mitansunshine
It is severe cyclone
Sel if any mistake then correct me…
Vinay cyclones are really unpredictably…there track and intensity only can b identified when they form…still in ma opinion it will b a cat1 NT more dan that…lets see
mitansunshine u could c the hpa influence and system position is placed near south-southeasterly quadrant of hpa…so westerly movement will be seen althru its lifecycle,,,… scenario will change only if ther is change in position of hpa.
Sel yes bt see navgem model….it looks like it has a little movement towards wnw initally
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
Sel the system is at Chennai latitude whent surfaces in the bay, by wednesday we will have clearer picture, but one thing is for sure the first fortnight is going to be poor
Another day of battering in Ramanathapuram and Tirunelveli dts.
Papanasam records – 102 mm
pypkmsrikanth ya..almost fortnight but last two days could be gamechanger.. i mean
(13th,14th)… an dnow ther is a circulation near indonesia waters.. hav to b tracked
GFS Update on Future Cyclone
Landfall as Cyclone on 15th on North Chennai
Chennai to get very heavy rain
PradeepJohn intensity 990…lol. lets see few more updates pj..it will be a cat1.
Mr. Mitan dont just see the lower levels. The steering of a cyclone is not done by lower level winds.
See the HPA in the 500 hpa
How can the cyclone move north. IMPOSSIBLE. It can even go to North. such is the intensity of the Ridge.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_500wind.htm
yet an another to follow the future system…
Pj I hvnt said a north movement I jst said a mild wnw movement intially…bt as u said its seems unlikely…inbtwn thnks for the extra knowledge
Hope Both these systems to strike TN coast ,I wish the one in the Bay to become a marginal Cat-1 and the one near southern Philippines to head to TN coast as Cat -2 or Cat -3 . Hope at least one becomes true …………………………http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=192&focus=mh
Let’s hope for our NEM’s sake this is right PJ
Rain is pouring now in villipuram district.why not in chennai
Asadsayeed
how many cms
C.Tamil Nadu in for good rainfall all through today
mitansunshine when fours and sixers are difficult to get, ones and twos will also help.
for the last 3 days Nellore got good rains, then rainfall skipped Chennai from today C.Tamil Nadu receiving heavy rains
Sriraman V K
after 14 november we will heavy rain if sytem moves to north tamilnadu .Amount of rainfall above 30 cms in single day it may higher
It may be above 5cm as it is raining continuously from morning
Radar shows heavy for pondicherry to nagapattinam belts from evening continous heavy rain.But chennai to tindivam no rain possible only cloudy conditions
38 people listenting but no comments boring please make a comments
heavy rain in nandambakkam for 5 minutes now back to sunny atleast 10mm
imd said today new lowpressure near srilanka under it influences delta region and coastal T.N,would receive heavy rain for coming 2 days
In this link u watch the spinning activities in the Ocean…
SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water – Indian Ocean
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/indo/main.html
Radar looksdangerous continous heavy rain for pondicherry to nagai belts from evenings atleast 10 to 16 cms
PradeepJohn
Ramanan Sir will be happy seeing these stats..He wants that 31cm Avg balance for TN at any cost..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/1264527
BBC forecasts heavy rains starting Tuesday night till Friday.
For chennai
Dear All, Finally is a Good news…. We can Expect some good rains this week
Asadsayeed
No,pondichery to nagai belt
Novak Nole
i saw but from last week bbc forecast like same thurday night but no rain these time heavy rain for deltas region for today and tommorrow.
chennairain
what good news
Don’t have high hopes Shiva we will continue to get in single digit mms we are having a strange NEM.