Good morning bloggers. Thank god at least one CM is registered so far. The easterly wave is giving fantastic rainfall in south TN and south kerala. Waiting for the rainfall numbers from some experts here.
Good morning to all.today also there will b more and more lots of flowers like cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds and passing showers will b moderate to heavy.let enjoy these days.
Wow nungambakkam got 2cm rain fantastic and iam happy.early mrng 4AM ambattur received heavy rain for 10mins and light rain for 20mins totally 30mins rain occured and even lots of lightning and thunder also came any one saw that at 4AM.
New cyclone enters Andaman sea at exactly Chennai latitude as per gfs.
It brings it very close to Chennai then a recurve to north-north western direction.
If it enters at lower latitude we have very good chances of landfall at north TN.
Yesterday kea topic dry diwali gone by passing showers.Today kea topic wet start to the day saying the rain to be clear and clear skies expected.This will not happen because already lot of cumulus forming in NE and in radar lot of dots in NE of chennai so chennai will get sure passing showers.let enjoy
However, Once again North East Monsoon is Great Failure in Tamilnadu. Chennai Public Please ready to fill water in Buckets!!!!!!! from Jan’2014 onwards
chennairain
Avoid premature comments related to failure of NEM..We are just in the first week of November and things have just started now.. Since 2005, we have been getting rains till the fag end of December…
chennairain
This is just a start.. we need patience. I’m confident of atleast 700 mm this NEM and we have already received excess rainfall for SWM, so normal/above normal year is likely
Guys!!! Alert!! LPA has organized and intensified. Very fast moving outerbands thunderstorms approaching S.AP/N.TN coast. This is the first time intense and fast moving storms are forming from the outerbands.. good sign!!
Lpa is at 5N, 88E near Srilanka.This will move in west and another lpa will form around 7th Nov.South TN, part of interior Tn and coastal TN , Kerala will be having good rain from today
Selcyclone Sud T.nagar
Remember Nilam outerbands ?? 😀 It was filled with heavy rain giving squalls which struck frequently…. We got around 11 cm from that and 1 cm from actual cyclone… lol
arb sea shld be monitored…current disturbance wil be forced to move west in tat case arb sea will get the pulse from it….50% chance of a system in arb sea..models failed many times to pick the system in arb sea during nem..
Wow as i said in today comments at morning is happening now. That is Opposite to kea topic now kea says rain to b clear and clear skies but beautiful cloudy weather now with lots of large cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds building.super weather soon v have showers also.
KeaWeather Archives 
Good morning bloggers. Thank god at least one CM is registered so far. The easterly wave is giving fantastic rainfall in south TN and south kerala. Waiting for the rainfall numbers from some experts here.
Padi has got 23 mm from the early morning spell, Selvam, it has rained well in Anna Nagar as well
super topic.how many millimetre in madhavaram and today we have great chances of rainfall http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013110206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ind_75.png
pypkmsrikanth
Thats a fairly good number
cumulus forming continue super to see that very awesome.
@selvam13
good morning.happy to see 1cm in kea.metsite.com
huge cumulus over east today nem is active. bye iam back by 3hours bye bye bye
Good morning to all.today also there will b more and more lots of flowers like cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds and passing showers will b moderate to heavy.let enjoy these days.
Wow nungambakkam got 2cm rain fantastic and iam happy.early mrng 4AM ambattur received heavy rain for 10mins and light rain for 20mins totally 30mins rain occured and even lots of lightning and thunder also came any one saw that at 4AM.
Anna Nagar west 31mm. Decent downpour in the wee hours.
Expecting good numbers from Kellys, Purasai, Parrys and Tiruvottiyur areas.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=396&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Easterly waves are active throughout November and until mid December. But nothing concrete for north and central TN.
Remember this CFS model was the one which predicted formation of nilam and thane but cannot be relied upon for landfall.
New cyclone enters Andaman sea at exactly Chennai latitude as per gfs.
It brings it very close to Chennai then a recurve to north-north western direction.
If it enters at lower latitude we have very good chances of landfall at north TN.
Yesterday kea topic dry diwali gone by passing showers.Today kea topic wet start to the day saying the rain to be clear and clear skies expected.This will not happen because already lot of cumulus forming in NE and in radar lot of dots in NE of chennai so chennai will get sure passing showers.let enjoy
wow, great Novak what time it rained
some spells were yesyteday night in chrompet & Thambaram
lot of tiny circulations seen..
As Predicted by the team only 10th onwards some good hopes for rain
Can you believe this–Kanchipuram ISRO—157 mm..
Sriraman V K
Betweeen 3am and 5 am.
next bay system http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/13110218/46.track.png
Novak Nole 15 cm wow…
Novak Nole Sriraman V K ideal time for typical nem rains
Novak Nole Error. It is just 1 -2 cm. Ignore it
Selcyclone GFS is saying orissa or Burma Landfall
PradeepJohn Novak Nole
Yeah..Pradeep..I too had the same doubt..AWS showing 157mm
Novak Nole PradeepJohn yesterday it showed 67 mm.
PradeepJohn Novak Nole
But why why…Nation wants to know..
PradeepJohn Novak Nole
Think my RG is 98% accurate..
PradeepJohn Selcyclone 1st it said burma,now odisha…so how long it will take to change its track twrds Tn??
Selcyclone PradeepJohn
Better to take things as they come..
sun news: lpa near lanka .so heavy rain for tn. omg facepalm.. is tat official news or made up
Selcyclone i have heard it….
However, Once again North East Monsoon is Great Failure in Tamilnadu. Chennai Public Please ready to fill water in Buckets!!!!!!! from Jan’2014 onwards
Heavy rain in Kanyakumari, Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli and Toothukudi.
The southern belt is getting good rains for past 5 days.
chennairain We have Desalination Plant and Veernam. Thats not the case in 2003
Tiruchendur has got around 60mm.
IMD Nungambakkam – 23.5 mm
Kea Metsite – 15.5 mm
What a difference !!
Good morning btw!
chennairain
Avoid premature comments related to failure of NEM..We are just in the first week of November and things have just started now.. Since 2005, we have been getting rains till the fag end of December…
IMD Nungambakkam – 23.5 mm
IMD Meenambakkam – 10.4 mm
😀 😀 😀
15 and 20 mm are not enough, we need more
chennairain
This is just a start.. we need patience. I’m confident of atleast 700 mm this NEM and we have already received excess rainfall for SWM, so normal/above normal year is likely
chennairain v need a proper system inorder to get sumthing above 5cm…
Guys!!! Alert!! LPA has organized and intensified. Very fast moving outerbands thunderstorms approaching S.AP/N.TN coast. This is the first time intense and fast moving storms are forming from the outerbands.. good sign!!
Lpa is at 5N, 88E near Srilanka.This will move in west and another lpa will form around 7th Nov.South TN, part of interior Tn and coastal TN , Kerala will be having good rain from today
LPA bands at full flow..
Sud T.nagar ya…LLC is stationary but rainbands sweeping..
SenthilkumarP_Adm
where did you get that info Senthil ??? I think it is near 81 E seeing the IR image, but need to check other products.
*10.6 mm
Selcyclone Sud T.nagar
Remember Nilam outerbands ?? 😀 It was filled with heavy rain giving squalls which struck frequently…. We got around 11 cm from that and 1 cm from actual cyclone… lol
Sattankulam 25 km away from Tiruchendur records 74 mm
arb sea shld be monitored…current disturbance wil be forced to move west in tat case arb sea will get the pulse from it….50% chance of a system in arb sea..models failed many times to pick the system in arb sea during nem..
Pls check cpc site
Selcyclone
so its going to maintain low latitude ?? i don’t think it will be useful for us then..
SenthilkumarP_Adm
ok.. thanks.
chennairain still a month away… one system crossing tn will make all the difference
Sud T.nagar Selcyclone ya… current scenario doesnt luks gud for it to drag it north… wait i will show u with pic representation.
susa we can get rain today
Selcyclone
Sel- The prevailing UAC near lakshwadeep Islands in helping in the TS formation for us..
paul abraham
yes.. but heavy rains will be likelier after 7 pm and overnight..
Wow as i said in today comments at morning is happening now. That is Opposite to kea topic now kea says rain to b clear and clear skies but beautiful cloudy weather now with lots of large cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds building.super weather soon v have showers also.
Novak Nole great number… considering it receives only minimal rain
mouliambattur
we will have partly cloudy skies for most of the day.. NEM Rainfall will occur mainly in the night till 8 am
Poonamallee has received pretty heavy rainfall seeing precipitation accumulation
around 20-30 mm
Dark cumulus clouds over north is looking beautiful and long.
mouliambattur
is it tall/growing vertically ??
mouliambattur
yeah! Thanks for letting us know! Thunderstorms to the NNW and NW
heavy rainfall possible after 7pm susa said.so holiday possible susa please tell
How rare is this ?? Strong thunderstorms developing in the afternoon !!
shiva ,maddy http://s10.postimg.org/uromait9l/sector_ir.jpg
@Sud T.nagar thats great
Papanasam – 73 and Manimuthar – 62 mm
@Selcyclone
super sel
Selcyclone nice explanation.
susa in morning heavy rain in ayanavaram but another cumulus come towards us but only drizzle
PradeepJohn
awesome rainfall in KK then!
PradeepJohnwow…so most of the areas in and around s.tn has got decent amount…
Happy Diwali to everyone
paul abraham
Just wait for those cumulus congestus to become very tall..
mitansunshine
wish you the same mitan !! It was yesterday here.. So today is Diwali there ??
See the well defined circulation of the lpa over Andaman sea
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_925wind.htm
I feel we’re in for a treat in the 2nd half of November…
until next system enters andaman sea, only hope of rain is from current disturbance ..
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec6.html
Selcyclone
I think we’ll get around 10 cm from this in total.. Let’s see what the remnant typhoon can give us after redevelopment
Sud T.nagar ya…s.ap-c.tn -likely target for 2nd week cyclone
Lolz how come diwali was yesterday??? same 4 whole country..
mitansunshine
In south india, Diwali is celebrated 1 day before central and north india..
Lot of dots in radar over NE of chennai and S.AP.
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/doppler-radar-products/
mitansunshine
each culture has a different day with 1/2 days difference
mitansunshine tat is TN… v r unique.lol
Sel more likely target is s ap…..lets see the hpa role
oh no. Krosa has weakened rapidly and has not moved SW…
First let Krosa curve SW and then survive journey through Vietnam and Co.
Selva, see this.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPSTEERIOCN_0z/comploop.html
susa please answer my question
heavy rainfall possible after 7pm susa said.so holiday possible susa please
Sud T.nagar krosa is not going to b our system …the one near phillipinnesis goin to be
Ohhhh sud really….i didn’t knew b4…today is Diwali 4 us