583 thoughts on “NEM October contest entries closes at midnight

     The South West monsoon further withdrew from remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, North Arabian sea, Entire Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, most parts of Odisha, Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan and some parts of Gangetic west Bengal, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka and Central Arabian sea. 
    The withdrawl line passes through Forbesganj, Bankura, Cuttack, Hanamkonda, Gulbarga, Ratnagiri, Latitude 17 0 North / longitude 70 0 East and Latitude 17 0 North / longitude 60 0 East. 
    Also, conditions are indicative of further withdrawal of South west monsoon from remaining parts of country during next 3-4 days. Conditions are favorable for commencement of  North east monsoon rains over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka around 22 nd October 2013.

  2. VAGARIES POST on Saturday Night
    the Monsoon axis has slid down South fast. A low has formed off TN coast, at 11N and 85E. Embedded in the East coast trough.This is expected to become well marked on Sunday and track towards North TN coast, and strike by Tuesday, 22nd or 23rd.
    With an UAC off the South Karnataka coast, the axis now joins the 2 systems.

  3. Vagaries assumptions / predictions on Saturday night
    The Monsoon axis runs from Goa SE to Chennai and into the SE Bay.
    Seeing the East winds along the axis,¬†I would expect the SWM to withdraw from the country on Monday, and with the change of winds, simultanious commencement of NEM¬†on 21st October.¬†Vagaries first announcement ( in NEM Watch -2 dt. 3rd October) of NEM date of 20th October proves correct…

    Chennai, as forecasted yesterday, will get a thunderstorm on Sunday Night, heralding the NEM. Rains expected to continue next couple of days.

  4. continued from early post
    A low is expected to form off the South Karnataka coast in the Arabian Sea around the 23rd/24th of October. Expected to track N/NW, and become well marked…and move along the Goa/Mah. coastline…Mumbai can expect some showers on Friday 25th and Saturday 26th October. Showers also expected in Goa.¬†
    This Low may turn out to be counter productive for the NEM till the low exists. But, in any case, we are expecting the NEM to under perform till October end.

  5. IMD  Prediction of Meteorological Condition
    Under the influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation  over southeast Bay of Bengal, a low pressure area may form over southwest Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.

  6. sel,
    The shear causes the upper anticyclone to tilt from lower circulation.Tilted upper anticyclone again causes some shear to the system due to outflow.

  7. Rame
    Personally requesting u not to post more than 3/ 4 lines here.
    We have to scroll more up & down. Please avoid that copy paste judt explain and give the link
    Hope u understand

  8. Rains less than 15 minutes away to hit Chennai coast. There could be a lull after the first round with the bigger storms expected to hit the coast little later

  9. rame1975 just now saw it..IMD is mentioning the circulation over TN as SW bay circulation.It wont develop.One mentioned in south east bay which is currently close to SW bay around 85 E wil develop.

  10. rame1975 i thought some mild circulation has developed in SE bay.The system they have mentioned is currently in 85 E away from SE bay.

  11. vinodh1986 You mean the one currently in SW bay neas SL will dissipate and the new one will form in SE Bay. Correct me ..

  12. ECMWF update. The system is going to stay good 3 to 4 days near North TN. Then it crosses South AP coast.

    Its not going to Bangladesh or Gujart

  13. PradeepJohn 
    Rajesh Sir of Vagaries expects the LOW to strike North TN by 22 nd or 23rd . Will it gain intensity and reach us as predicted by him ?

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