594 thoughts on “NEM rains expected to commence from 22nd Oct

  1. According to the wind shear map, system seems to bee moving into relatively low shear now. 5- 10 kts.Hope it shows considerable development today.

  2. Selcyclone 
    Yeah 🙂
    Vorticity is also getting concentrated slightly. So as shear relaxes, good chance of this becoming a depression.

  3. Wow as GFS predicting heavy rains Cola meteogram shows
    115 mm from 22nd night to 23rd Night in 24 hrs
    85 mm from 24th night to 25th Night in 24 hrs
    200 mm in 2 days.

  4. First things first…I have been following this blog last two NEM and this year, the entire year. Very educative posts from many of you. Thanks a million to KEA, Sel cyclone, Pradeep John, JupiJove and many others. I wish I could have made it to one of your meetings. Maybe the next one if Iam permitted to.

  5. KarthikStorm Selcyclone 
    Forecasts point to a well marked low or a DD at max. Hope it stays that way. Cyclones are waste of time,energy,money, lot of destruction. A well marked low or dd that stalls off the coast is a dream rain show. I remember how the depression that very slowly moved up the coast along Chennai in 1996 brought 54 cm of rain in two days in November.

  6. ECMWF is taking the Mahesan cyclone which traveled along the east coast from chennai to Bangladesh.
    Only difference is it will very close to chennai
    Landfall in Bangaladesh / Burma on 28th October. Hope it does not happen. It will again take all the moisture left out. And we will without rains for 3-4 days

  7. Entire Coimbatore district have been battered with heavy rains. Even Ramanathapuram district. Many stations report over 100 mm

  8. Pollachi in Coimbatore records over 100 mm. Mandapam in Ramanathapuram too gets over 100 mm. Lets wait for IMD figures

  9. mitan, it wont go there. ECMWF will change it soon. Most probabale is that LPA crossing TN and going as a depression near Kerala

  10. According to latest news death toll has reached to 61 in odisha due to cyclone phailin and can increase more due to severe flood

  11. mitansunshine it should develop as the shear is reducing..key factor is the shear… it may decide on how much rains we could get…  
    rains are definitely on the cards… question is the amount

  12. Pj it is according to local newspaper called sambad….u can search e-paper sambad in google bt really sorry u cant understand odia

  13. Interior tamilnadu getting very heavy rain for last five days in Chennai we are nothings .What is the real factor if system forming moves to andhra ,orissa

  14. madanbabu 
    Dont worry. NEM is going to set only. It is not yet set. Once it is set, North tamil nadu or for that matter entire coastal TN will start getting rain more. NEM is actually is a important monsoon for coastal TN from chennai, cuddalore, puducherry, nagapattinam, pudukottai and tuticorin districts (All coastal districts).

    The current rain in interior tamil nadu is rains in transition phase from SWM to NEM.

  15. Madanbabu u will get heavy rain once nem sets in…system has less chance of making landfall in odisha and ap…it has more chance to make a landfall in TN coast as there is no hpa near TN coast and the hpa lies near burma

  16. madanbabu  
    Each & Every Model will vary now, the system will go odhisa / west bengal / andhra,….
    We can able see this only the  system forms & started to move. the image whatever u have seen is the prediction, this will change model to model.
    NEM Winds are not stronger, TS / Popups forms in the Sea (Bay) is not entering the land due to weak sea breeze. If its sets we will have rain in chennai.
    Regarding Interior TN rains, TS / Popups are formed in the land, so its easily to travel across land this also may the chance over of SWM to NEM, for last 4 days we are having the wind direction as North East to South West.

  17. s_velayudham madanbabu  
     In generally north east monsoon set in chennai after only its take place to andhra and other state.

  18. selvam13 madanbabu  
     Imd  North east monsoon  set on 22-10-2013,Yes system is form in bay of Bengal why its move to Andra and orissa and westbengal model model shoeing like BBC,etc.Please tell me selvam

  19. madanbabu selvam13 
    I dont know which system u  r referrring. As per IMD , a low will only form in 24 hours and it will move west North westwards. We have to wait till any thing formed. Once NEM is set, things will change in no time. So dont worry. We will get our rains for sure. If you see the satellite image, all clouds are moving towards tamil nadu coast only.

    It is our monsoon. God given monsoon for the injustice he has done by awarding SWM for regions of india but not Tamil nadu. Otherwise why farway Hightpressure area in siberia is inducing North eastern winds and why it should gather moisture in Andhra coast and pour in tamil nadu.

  20. Southwest monsoon is better they give rain to  CHENNAI .But still north east moon did not set  in Tamilnadu no rain indication.But winds change but no use of these wind.It s not coming always from north east its some times change to west.What is the reason.Interior getting rain for 4 days its south west monsoon rain please explain briefly any one .

  21. s_velayudham  
    Thank you sorry for question you are experts so i asking queries.Beacause all the stae are receved eavy rain fall but coastal tamilnadu including chennai not received any rain.Ok North east monsoon not set yet we have pre-Monsoon rain that also not happening.Last four days sunshine bright.tODAY ITS little bit cloudy.

  22. Astronomers in Ukraine say a deadly asteroid is likely to collide with the Earth in 2032.
    According to a Russian news service, researchers at an observatory in the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory think the space rock – said to be 1,345 feet wide – is on course to hit our planet on August 26, 19 years from now.

  23. Madan babu u need to wait forr nem which may set around 22nd and then u will get rain and winds r changing bcoz nem has NT set yet…once it will set wind direction will b permanently blow from ne…as nem has NT set yet TN is getting rain in patcheswise due to local convection and a circulation over TN and srilanka coast…nw hoping all ur doubts r cleared

  24. Shear tendency to decrease in the region of low pressure. Will have low shear around 10 knots then.

    Will be great if it keeps decreasing along it’s path

  25. KeerthiVasan Bhaskaran19 PradeepJohn -Cloud plays hide and seek game, as of now it is very hot and humid – will wait and watch

  26. madanbabu KarthikStorm 
    Shear tendency map indicates the predicted shear for the region. In that map blue dotted lines denote regions where shear decreases and bold white lines indicates regions where shear is supposed to increase.
    Lower wind shear helps systems organise and form a better circulation.

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