363 thoughts on “IMD forecasts an above average NEM for Tamil Nadu

  1. Our Astronomer Dhinakar Rajaram posted this in FB https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10202506097200212&set=a.10200289718472129.2205143.1428683153&type=1&theater&notif_t=mentions_comment

  2. The good old saying about weather predictions always should be kept in mind; women and weather hard to predict. with regards to chennai weather more difficult.

  3. After 3 days of heavyrain in madurai,theni,dindigul..vaigai river is flooded with water.(last week it was drought)..HAPPY to see that.

  4. Siberain high has nw eatablished itself v well….also a circulation had formed over south bay….path of nem is clear nw…it would make onset in Chennai on 22

  5. Precipitation accumulation – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/10/17/basis18/swas/rsum/13102406_1718.gif

  6. Yeah, it is starting to worry me already. If shear increases in it’s path so much, then the system wont be able to form as GFS suggests now.

  7. cat5hurricane KarthikStorm 
    Yes, I’m not looking for a strong system to form out of this. However even if it can strengthen slightly to a depression or deep depression, our prospects improve that much. No doubt that we will get good rains out of this system. 🙂

  8. Cola GFS Meteogram – 120 mm on 22nd night to 23rd Night
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    GFS Meteogram – 40 mm on 22nd night to 23rd Night
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  9. system moves to Andra and Orissa please visit BBC weather in Chennai for Monday forecast what happening i don’t know .Please see and tell the comment

  10. Vagaries has announced that south west monsoon had withdrawn from northern, western and central india today the 18th of October.  Immediatley the strenght of transfermation of winds from east & north east to follow soon.  They also announced that heavy thundershowers till sunday for chennai.  Considering the bright & clear skies we can hope a good thundersquall formation during late evenings.  let us see.  In the meanwhile there is also an indication on formation of well marked system over south bay and from sunday we can expect heavy rains over tamil nadu.
    ss.

  11. The system is tracking into an area of moderate shear which would slow down its development.Low shear lies to the east of the system.Models are showing slow organization of system as it nears the coast.ECMWF and other models are pointing out movement towards AP coast with only GFS moving it to the TN coast as it expects high pressure over Myanmar to strengthen.

  12. rame1975http://www.weatheronline.in/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=in&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=wi50&HH=72&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

  13. rame1975 we have to wait and see.In 2005 a deep depression followed the same path towards AP, it gave record breaking rainfall to chennai but that system rain bands was tilting towards chennai, it doesnt happen to all system

  14. rame1975 GFS expecting the HPA to strengthen leading to west-northwesterly track but ECMWF and other models favours NW track.i think its gonna follow the NW track towards AP.

  15. V had a simliar case during nilam… hpa moved east and anchored close to myanmar wich eventually led to sudden change in track…

  16. rame1975 The whole cloud is a disturbance, from west of srilanka to south east bay.Circulation is expected to develop somewhere in between the area.

  17. Already high pressure zone coupled with anticyclonic conditions started over extreme north east bay of bengal as well as central india.  This would cause a big vaccum in south bay.  We can expect a well marked low pressure system with in a day or two, as the sea temperature is quite conducive, chances of further intensification is also likely.  We might start getting rains from sunday.  hopefully a full fledged cyclone by middle of next week near tamil nadu coast.
    SS.

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