NEM winds are expected to reach Chennai only after this cyclone makes landfall this weekend. Need to wait and see the progress of this cyclone very closely.
NEM winds are expected to reach Chennai only after this cyclone makes landfall this weekend. Need to wait and see the progress of this cyclone very closely.
post title typo?
hey!
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RajendranHarikrishnan hello!
sailudavey OKAY …..
RajendranHarikrishnan Hi ,
How are you ?
sailudavey POINTS NOT UPDATED FOR TODAY’S PREDICTIONS FOR TEMP.
How much did it rain in Nunga & Meena this night ?
sailudavey No problem.
Every week some change is happening in KEA weather blog. BTW please make sure that we do not need to register again with new id again and again.
This is the third registration .
LATEST INSAT image http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sector-irc.jpg
My prediction for 08-10-2013
Nungambakkam Max temp — 34.6 deg celsius
Meenambakkam Max temp — 34.5 deg celsius
Rainfall
Nungambakkam —- 10 mm
Meenambakkam — 10 mm
KEA , PLS UPDATE
Thanks
VAGARIES POST ON MONDAY NIGHT:
BB-15. As a low pressure area at 1006 mb, has entered the Bay waters. On latest evaluation it is located at 11.5N and 97.5E. Winds at core are 15 knts.
Clouds convergence seen building around centre. Though organised bands are still not prominent. However, some wind shear is seen near the system, and prominent shear is seen in the mid levels.
Seeing the other factors, the system would move N/NW initially, and maintain strength at 1002/1004 mb. Later, it can curve NW around 14N, and track towards Odisha/Bengal coast.
In the previous article, we had mentioned about the Monsoon axis slidig towards Central India. The axis has placed itself in the central India region.
Now, we wait for the next development: the UAC formation in the axis ! I estimate the formation of a UAC around MP, and head….west !
The system has moved further in WWN direction and is now over Andaman, let’s hope it continues to move westward and provides us some rains.
TS over north west will they reach us
No chance, will dissipate
Anyhow we can expect from pull effect
Intense convection has developed over center and looks organized.The system looks to have reached depression status.
pypkmsrikanth The system lies over andaman sea. The clouds associated with the system is covering Andaman islands but the actual circulation is well in sea.The system is moving very slowly,it will take some time to cross Andaman islands.The depression would intensify into cyclonic storm even before crossing andaman.
Models are expecting inflow to come from north and run over chennai towards depression.If it happens then we are in for a severe thunderstorms.
PPV shows wind direction of NW and N
These thunderstorms connected with the inflow going to depression will contain strong winds.If we get those storms, it will produce gusty winds.The more depression intensifies,stronger the winds will be in inflow storms
PradeepJohn I think this is gonna be the direction of storms for next few days.
Storm is getting strength from inflow coming from indian ocean ,thailnad and from india.Feeder bands from indian ocean is the most significant one as of now.
Storms wil dissipate..chennai under hpa
25kts, 1004mb… increase in convection seen around.
taking shape
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
another view of the andaman system
http://atlas.pdc.org/atlas/?id=5992
Selva– Where can I get an idea of current Pressures across India and forecasts for the next 7 days
This shows crossing just above Kalingapatnam
http://www.incois.gov.in/Incois/indofos_wind_coastal.jsp?selectbox1=andhra&selectbox2=wind&selectbox3=14-10-2013–2330
Gopal sir,each and Every models shows mslp… Check geopotential at 500hpa,streamlines at 500mb…it shows the circulation tat r xtended to mid level..u can get the idea of hpa,lpa everything.
Selcyclone
request links pls
Gingee records over 100 mm. Villipuram. Entire Salem district battered.
Now, its become a well defined system over bay of bengal.
It must be a depression or i will intensify into a cyclone ?
Wait & Watch by tomorrow…
PJ
Upper Wind Levels showing easterly winds ?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=
good morning all,
light rain in selaiyur now.
vorticity building up
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Wow Chennai to get rain from the feeder bands
IMD expecting the system to become Depression in 24 hours and start moving in WNW direction
Something is better. Due to the cyclone. The winds will be from NW and some times even north.
At times, Even in Animation it will be seen as if the rains are coming from SEA in NE direction
PradeepJohn
clouds have started moving in based on the pull effect from the system
The system is pulling moistures from India Ocean.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-wv.htm
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=
Divergence is at 40 knots now
At the same time Dry air covering entire north india now.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/uth.htm
Good morning folks
more good news… wrf model predicts another system to form off Chennai coast and hpa forming over north AP!!!
When is that.?
This is definitely good news!!
While here we may be of thr opinion of AP as the landfall area… rajesh Sir from vagaries feels this is headed towards bengal coast
Don’t worry sailu,
It will change the track & make landfall between mahabalipuram and nellore.
Good rain in many places in Bangalore in the early mrng hours.. My rg in sahakarnagar, n.blore has recorded 25mm.. Hesaraghatta got 36mm, city 7mm, Hal AP 6mm.. There was severe lightning n thunder..
Jupijove
Good morning Jupi, nice news
ciriform clouds are visible clearly in satellite pic indicating intensification and good outflow over the system.High pressure would have formed over the top of system.
Good Morning all..One look at Accu Sat Image loop says it all..Its surely intensifying and gaining strength.
SaileshDavey
where is the todays prediction page?
i could not find out the comments entered today morning in weekly contest page?
Novak Nole good morning 🙂
Good Morning to All..Good News in the morning!
Novak Nole http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
parthasri35urapakkam Wait for it.. the older comments are being imported… for the record post here with the timings of your post
Preliminary report of Rains in Guj and Raj.
Highest rainfall of 45CM recorded in Khambalia (Saurashtra & Kutch).
Click to access Preliminary_report.pdf
popup over NE of chennai
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_Tropical_Cyclone_Forecasting_System
sailudavey parthasri35urapakkam
i have already posted around 9.30AM. It was there when i posted, after that it dissapeared
Novak Nole
nice info
parthasri35urapakkam you read it soo fast???
parthasri35urapakkam Yes Partha… i dont know where its gone and indeed surprising… but currently import process is en route… in a few hours we should get some clarity
partially cloudy day…hopefully temp should not be a googly like yesterday!
sailudavey parthasri35urapakkam
yes
Good Morning Vino.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt
sailudavey parthasri35urapakkam
ok, but try to retrieve it if possible
parthasri35urapakkam Novak Nole Yes Partha.
latest sattellite image of TS
http://www.sattmet.tmd.go.th/newversion/mergesat.html
Medium status
The following link has the complete details of the systems formed in the Bay (year 2013 )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season
possibility of HPA forming over Kerala and South Interior KTK, also increase in shear over south india and south bay in next 48 hours.
parthasri35urapakkam will this will help in to bring LPA twds tn
sailudavey In all probability will be upgraded to High by tomorrow morning IST.
nellaivel parthasri35urapakkam
exactly opposite
Just enjoying the way the posts get updated so fast..
Next few days are going to be real hot as the system would be sucking in all the moisture around..This may pave way for some convective activity in the evenings in the coming days..Yesterday was a case of So near,yet so far..
Hpa problem not to be ignored
Accu forecasts heavy Thunder Storms today evening…By the looks of it, yes it may happen,,
This year’s monsoon in Delhi is tipped to be of the longest duration in more than 50 years with another spell of light to moderate rainfall likely this weekend while Dussehra revelries are on in the city.
According to the MeT department, the length of the current Southwest Monsoon is likely to exceed 120 days, breaking the previous record of 111 days recorded 57 years back.
Sailesh–Are the old topics and comments still there?
GFS and CMC show decent precipitation accumulation for us..outer bands seem to be benefit us
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=132&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=180&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
rain possible any moment from now
Where? Nothing in radar?
sampathca
ts will start building internally.
parthasri35urapakkam when will swm withdrawal willl commence again over nw and central india
Winds from NW completely, get ready for heavy rains
Tiruvottiyur must be getting some drizzles now..
Coming. .dey are on de way
parthasri35urapakkam
Yes..Yes, a small pop up already closing in towards Rd Hills.
Tamaraipakkam getting battered now
dry air approaching very fast from North
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-wv.htm
sailudavey By Air courier or Sufface transport?
Postal service :-p
Partially cloudy in kellys. .. doubt any major spike in temp..