642 thoughts on “Would be Cyclone Phalin likely to head towards N.AP coast

  1. The Weekly Contest Page is under construction as of now.. the support team for livefyre is working on getting the comments back and will be up shortly…

    This is a temporary setback and apologize for the inconvenience this may cause! 

    Until then the daily entries for the contest can be posted here… will be updated in the page as it comes alive!

  2. sailudavey No problem.
    Every week some change is happening in KEA weather blog. BTW please make sure that we do not need to register again with new id again and again.
    This is the third registration .

  3. My prediction for 08-10-2013

    Nungambakkam Max temp — 34.6 deg celsius
    Meenambakkam Max temp — 34.5 deg celsius

    Nungambakkam —- 10 mm
    Meenambakkam — 10 mm



    BB-15. As a low pressure area at 1006 mb, has entered the Bay waters. On latest evaluation  it is located at 11.5N and 97.5E. Winds at core are 15 knts. 

    Clouds convergence seen building around centre. Though organised bands are still not prominent. However, some wind shear is seen near the system, and prominent shear is seen in the mid levels.

    Seeing the other factors, the system would move N/NW initially, and maintain strength at 1002/1004 mb. Later, it can curve NW around 14N, and track towards Odisha/Bengal coast.

    In the previous article, we had mentioned about the Monsoon axis slidig towards Central India. The axis has placed itself in the central India region. 

    Now, we wait for the next development: the UAC formation in the axis ! I estimate the formation of a UAC around MP, and head….west !

  5. The system has moved further in WWN direction and is now over Andaman, let’s hope it continues to move westward and provides us some rains.

  6. Intense convection has  developed over center and looks organized.The system looks to have reached depression status.

  7. pypkmsrikanth The system lies over andaman sea. The clouds associated with the system is covering Andaman islands but the actual circulation is well in sea.The system is moving very slowly,it will take some time to cross Andaman islands.The depression would intensify into cyclonic  storm even before crossing andaman.

  8. Models are expecting inflow to come from north and run over chennai towards depression.If it happens then we are in for a severe thunderstorms.

  9. These thunderstorms connected with the inflow going to depression will contain strong winds.If we get those storms, it will produce gusty winds.The more depression intensifies,stronger the winds will be in  inflow storms

  10. Storm is getting strength from inflow coming from indian ocean ,thailnad and from india.Feeder bands from indian ocean is the most significant one as of now.

  11. Gopal sir,each and Every models shows mslp… Check geopotential at 500hpa,streamlines at 500mb…it shows the circulation tat r xtended to mid level..u can get the idea of hpa,lpa everything.

  12. Something is better. Due to the cyclone. The winds will be from NW and some times even north.
    At times, Even in Animation it will be seen as if the rains are coming from SEA in NE direction

  13. While here we may be of thr opinion of AP as the landfall area… rajesh Sir from vagaries feels this is headed towards bengal coast

  14. Good rain in many places in Bangalore in the early mrng hours.. My rg in sahakarnagar, n.blore has recorded 25mm.. Hesaraghatta got 36mm, city 7mm, Hal AP 6mm.. There was severe lightning n thunder..

  15. ciriform clouds are visible clearly in satellite pic indicating intensification and good outflow over the system.High pressure would have formed over the top of system.

  16. SaileshDavey 
    where is the todays prediction page?
    i could not find out the comments entered today morning in weekly contest page?

  17. sailudavey parthasri35urapakkam 
    i have already posted around 9.30AM. It was there when i posted, after that it dissapeared

  18. parthasri35urapakkam Yes Partha… i dont know where its gone and indeed surprising… but currently import process is en route… in a few hours we should get some clarity

  19. possibility of HPA forming over Kerala and South Interior KTK, also increase in shear over south india and south bay in next 48 hours.

  20. Next few days are going to be real hot as the system would be sucking in all the moisture around..This may pave way for some convective activity in the evenings in the coming days..Yesterday was a case of So near,yet so far..

  21. This year’s monsoon in Delhi is tipped to be of the longest duration in more than 50 years with another spell of light to moderate rainfall likely this weekend while Dussehra revelries are on in the city.
    According to the MeT department, the length of the current Southwest Monsoon is likely to exceed 120 days, breaking the previous record of 111 days recorded 57 years back.

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