903 thoughts on “Dry weather expected to continue

  1. The west coast trough weakening after the UAC has crossed the Goa coast, should spell well for Chennai.

    Chennai City may see an increase in its thunder showers activity from Tuesday and continue in the week.

    Courtesy – VAGARIES

  2. Hopefully it should not remain dry for too long…

    Fingers crossed about the expected LPA or UAC for breaking the dry spell of weather and giving a kickstart to the NEM seasonal rainfall .

    By next week middle or end we can expect rains , i think so.

    • Good morning Selva
      good news… jma predicts the system to cross TN and simultaneously NEM will just set in! 🙂

  3. real battle between ecmwf and gfs… gfs shows the system coupling with the trough axis from nw-west india…ecmwf isolates the system..as per gfs target is close to orissa -n.ap…. hope a new ridge builds and revises the entire forecast.

  4. As i said early the cyclone will cross n.ap and orissa or s.ap and n.tn iam hope the system give more rain to tamilnadu

  5. PJ

    WHAT IS THE LATEST POSITION OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR ANDAMAN AREA ?

    PLEASE POST THE LINKS WHICH I HAVE ASKED FOR ?

      • rameshsquall: I calculate ,seeing todays shear and jet streams flow, the system to reach as a depression (not weal LPA)…but, thats the scene today…and i see the axis also slipping towards central India

      • Thanks for your reply.

        I wanted clarification from fellow bloggers . That is all.

        Will it move towards N-TN & S-AP coast or go to N-AP& ODiSHA coast?

        THANKS

  6. the system has to intensify to reach upper tropo level so tat it can be pushed by upperlevel easterlies(since swm has not ended) … ecmwf considered the ridge extending from WestBengal as influential steering front..

      • A low pressure forms in the Andaman region by Monday, 7th October. Seeing the present winds and upper jet streams, i would expect the system to track NW towards the AP/Odisha coast. Should be at least of Depression strength on reaching the coast by the 13/14th October.

        RAJESH SIR _ VAGARIES

  7. KEA ,

    KEA METSITE IS FUNCTIONING ABNORMALLY.

    WIND PATTERN IS SW AS OF NOW. BUT IT SHOWS SE DIRECTION AND ALSO TEMP IS DECREASING FAST …

    PLEASE CHECK IT ONCE YOU RETURN TO CHENNAI

  8. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N
    102.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 102.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH-
    SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
    A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
    060120Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED
    BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE,
    WHICH APPEARS TO BE TUCKED UP IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF OF
    THAILAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A SMALL
    AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, JUST
    ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG VWS GRADIENT, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE
    ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
    CYCLONE THAT MAY CROSS OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 48
    HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
    KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

  9. no..its not a circulation…its a hpa developed in western bay not allowing clousds to develop.. so ther was no rain

    • yes, u r correct PJ, this may be due to Dry air approaching central india, even today it has touched upto north MP in WV insat.

      Due to this the HPA will increase over north and east india in the coming days.

      this is why the system has to move towards south AP and north TN.

      in the coming the models would change direction from N or NW to SW.

  10. System has entered BOB, has weakened a bit after crossing malay peninsula, but organization is good. Very high possibility of it striking AP/Orissa if it develops. If it remains weak, it will move like an NEM wave towards TN/AP coast. If it strengthens near Andaman, it will have a high possibility of curving towards NW/N

  11. ecmwf track looks interesting.. initially the cylone is movin in WNW dir and again changing its cource towards wsw striking S and C AP

  12. Hpa would b seen building near bihar/ wb aftr oct 9th.. Gfs taking it in a lighter note,but Ecmwf considering it bigger and tat is the reason for difference in track…

    • hope u remember last year we had a we had a lp which moved in SW dir from N bay towards TN due to hpa over N india.. we mite see something like tat

  13. Lot of pop ups seen in the west. Wind directions seems to favour those reaching the city if it doesn’t dissipate.

  14. Top 5 at the end of Day 7 temp round.

    Veluyadham 267
    Gopal666 236
    Srikanth 194
    Raijin 168
    Kea 150

    Vela has won this week’s contest. Congrats Vela & gopal666 for running away this week’s contest. The top 5 will not change irrespective of rains or no rains today

    Congrats to all the winners. End of Week 3 the overall standings are
    1 Srikanth
    1 Veluyadham
    2 Raijin
    3 Kea
    4 Rajkmr
    4 Gopal666
    5 Pradeep
    5 Paul Abraham
    6 Shiva
    6 Parthasri35

    • Srikanth,

      Why I have not been awarded any points on temperature . I predicted 34.8 which is .4 less than actual temperature.. should have got some point. I think the temp is not yet fully updated.

    • Normal date for nem onset is Oct 20, as of this year early onset depends on how the system moves, if system comes to TN then Nem is possible

    • Prasanna, we still have the westerlies hanging around..First this has to stop..We may see a change in the wind direction from NE by 12th or 13th..Expect actual NEM to start by Oct 17 or 18th.

  15. Rame, this is for you. What are the models Saying about the future cyclone expected to cross Indian Coast.

    1.ECMWF – Close to South AP on 15th October
    ————————-

    2.GFS – Orissa on 13th October
    ——————

    3.NAVY GEM – Close to Orissa
    till 13th October
    —————————-

    4.CMC GEM Model – Not Clear, in open sea
    ———————-

    5. Australian ACCESS Global – Orissa on 16th October
    ——————

    6. IMD GFS – Similar to Global GFS Orissa on 13th October
    ————————–
    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_mslp.htm

    7.NCMWRF GFS – Similar to Global GFS Orissa on 13th October
    —————————–
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/F_574_CH-08.htm

    8.JMA Model – Available only till 9th
    ————————-

    9. Taiwan Model – Available only till 9th
    ————————

    10.TMD -WRF-ARW – Available only till 9th
    ———————–

    11. BBC – Available only till 10th
    ————————-

    12. UkMet – Available only till 8th
    —————————-

    13.COAMPS – Available only till 8th
    ———————————-

    14.IMD WRF – Available only till 9th October
    ——————————-
    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/72wrf_mslp.htm

    15. NCMWRF Unified Model – System staying in Malay Peninsula till 10th
    ——————————–
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/Unified-model/forecast/UM_CH-15.htm

    16. IMD Anuman – Not Available
    —————————————
    http://rtws.cdac.in/slp.html

  16. Central US Storm Unleashes Tornadoes, Feet of Snow

    A storm moving across the central United States late-week brought both severe and winter weather to several states.
    In northeastern Nebraska and northwestern Iowa on Friday, severe storms spawned dangerous tornadoes. 15 were injured, the Associated Press reported.
    On Saturday, the National Weather Service Omaha office reported that the damage survey team in Wayne found a some spots in an industrial park that suggested an EF-4 tornado had touched down. Mostly, however, the damage was rated EF-2 and EF-3, they said.
    On Friday and Saturday, several feet of snow fell across Wyoming and South Dakota, bringing blizzard conditions to the region.
    Numerous roadways were closed and thousands were without power. As much as 44 inches fell northwest of Rapid City in Lead, S.D., a National Weather Service observer reported.

  17. Dry weather in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthanm HP, Delhi & J&K.

    Rain will decrease after 24 hours in MP, Chattisgarh, Bihar, Konkan and Goa, UP and Marathwada.

    • when did onset of north east monsoon set in Tamil please tell partha ji.Its after 20th october or 10 to 20 october

      • we need to wait for 2 more days, let this system come to bay and will decide the movement, then we can say when NEM will set.

        Now i would say not before 15th.

    • HPA will be surely high over central india, but over East?

      that is very important.

      Now i would says there are 2 movements possible.

      1. towards WB, based on HPA.
      2. towards AP.

    • you cannot rely on HPA forecast made today, it may change frequently, for HPA status we have to wait for 2 more days.

  18. Why North east monsoon not predicated every time south east monsoon start before ans very heavy rain for western side of country.But north east monsoon always face difficulties why ? please explain

  19. Why North east monsoon not predicated every time south east monsoon start before ans very heavy rain for western side of country.

  20. IMD TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 07-10-2013

    BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:-

    UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
    TENASSERIM COAST AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
    FORMED OVER TENASSERIM COAST AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. IT WOULD
    MERGE INTO ANDAMAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND WOULD INTENSIFY
    FURTHER.
    BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
    CONVECTION OVER NORTWEST BAY OF BENGAL EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
    ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH OF LATITUDE 15.0°N EAST OF
    LONGITUDE 85.0°E .

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