228 thoughts on “Early onset of NEM is ruled out

  1. Top 5 at the end of Day 5 of the contest. With two days left it looks likely the Top 2 would have their own contest for topping this week’s contest while there is a tight scrap from 3 to 6 for the 3rd place.

    Gopal666 216
    Veluyadham 199
    Srikanth 162
    Pradeep 145
    Raijin 132
    Kea 130

  2. The UAC present over Arabian Sea…will move down to Konkan & kerala coast by tomorrow morning…

    Due to pull effect, we will get heavy rain from tomorrow…

  3. I think this UAC & hpa present from Western india prevails till S.india..

    This wont allow the cyclone to near us…it may move to N.AP/orissa..

    But also, there is a hope..the UAC present over BOB can change these things..we have to wait for 3 more days..

  4. NEM onset prediction

    Bloggers who predict to the exact date will get 50 points
    1 day off will get 25 points
    2 days off will get 15 points
    3 days off will get 10 points

    Points will be added to the weekly contest. Pls send in your entries by midnight of th Oct.

    Entries can be posted to the weekly contest

  5. Rainfall in and around Chennai Region
    ———————
    One of the biggest spell for North Chennai area.

    in mm ending 8.30 am on 04.10.2013

    Avadi – 81
    Kalavai – 70
    Puzhal – 58
    Tiruvallur – 53
    Thiruvalangadu – 50
    Tamaripakkam – 47
    Madhavaram – 43
    Kaveripakkam – 40
    Kancheepuram – 40
    Poonamalle – 40
    Kolapakkam – 39
    Korattur Anicut – 37
    Ennore – 34
    Cheyyar – 32
    Arakonnam – 30
    Wallajah – 30
    Tambaram – 30
    Tiruttani – 29
    Redhills Lake – 27
    Meenambakkam – 25
    Cholavaram Lake – 23
    Katupakkam – 21
    Sholingur – 20
    Sriperumbudur – 20
    RK Pet – 20
    Chembarabakkam Lake – 17
    Ellapuram – 14
    Marina Beach – 12
    Katpadi – 12
    Guindy – 10
    Pallipattu – 10
    Ponneri – 10
    Poondi Lake – 10
    Uthukottai – 6
    Nungambakkam – 5
    Perungudi – 4
    Taramani – 2
    Cheyyur – 2

  6. already NRL cyclone page has indicated disturbance at 12 N & 100 east just east of andaman islands. once it enters bay probably due to high SST it would converge as a big system at 10 North. Due high pressure buildin up over vizag, the chances of system movement beyond andhra pradesh are very less. consequent to that if easterly wind pattern sets in probably by mid next week, north east monsoon would commence with bang. Till Tuesday we can expect evening thunderstorms.

    ss.

  7. KEA

    Pls update today’s contest entries final list .

    Also pls declare the SEPTEMBER month Contest results as soon as possible.

    Thank You.

  8. ENSO has remained neutral since mid-2012. Most indicators of ENSO are at near-average levels, though some atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line, have fluctuated over recent months.
    This is fairly typical of neutral ENSO periods. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the remainder of spring and the austral summer.

    The majority of international climate models indicate the IOD will remain neutral for the remainder of 2013.

  9. Mettur dam level 94.32 ft ; current capacity 57.7 tmc; inflow 3935 cusecs outflow 29900 cusecs..Sharp decrease in level worries farmers of Delta regions.

  10. The red is the track with good possibility, orange low-moderate possibility, green very low possibility.

    It all depends on intensity. If it remains weak, it won’t go too much north.

  11. We have good chances of NEM if the one from Malay Peninsula remains very weak and intensifies very close to Chennai 😀

  12. @Susa,
    The active low pressure over Cambodia covers the upper Gulf of Thailand, and the monsoon trough remains across the upper South and the East of Thailand. Torrential rain, as well as isolated heavy to very heavy rain, is likely over those areas and severe weather during 5-7 octber.
    It is going to be weaker further only…this will help us for earlier onset of NEM.

    • Nice to hear.

      What about Weatheronline model prediction ?

      this model shows it will cross N-AP and Orissa coast during 13- 15 October

  13. Partha,

    I think the LPA which is expected to form will definitely delay the Onset of NEM.

    What do you think of that ?

  14. Partha, thats not ECMWF model Ensemble. Its like GEFS model.

    BREAKING NEWS – ECMWF MODEL (most Reliable for Cyclones) shows the low / Depression to come to TN on 14th October

  15. Hi ,

    Can any one tell which are the forecast models available ?

    And also let me know which model is more accurate in forecasting and predictions ?

    I am bit confused with everyone saying this and that will happen .

    I want to get a clear picture in understanding the forecast models .

  16. @ SUSA
    The link you have given

    will have more chance to South Tamilnadu,
    As per the Current pressure & wind shear, the system will not move to North, it will come towards west

    • Susa u have give the 6 tracking line.

      the track u have given towards west has 90% Chance, It will start our NEM.

      Most models will start predicted it from tomorrow onwards, from tonight or within 48 hours wind direction will change. This will start our NEM activities.

  17. Partha

    U can give NEM onset prediction in the weakly contest page. That’s what KEA too specified in the comment as no separate page was created

  18. WEATHER FORECASTING

    Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere on a given place and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve on that place.
    Once an all-human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition, weather forecasting now relies on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus help narrow the error and pick the most likely outcome.
    There are a variety of end uses to weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days. On an everyday basis, people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and the wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.

  19. HI everyone,

    Pls don’t mistake for the big post.
    I accidentally pasted the entire definition taken from Wikipedia.

    sorry for long post

  20. September Month Contest
    ————————————
    September 2013 Month Rainfall
    ———————————————

    Nungambakkam – 240.2mm
    Meenambakkam – 179.2mm
    Kodaikanal – 190.3mm
    Madurai – 44.6mm
    Tiruchi – 123.1mm
    Salem – 228.8mm
    Pondicherry – 167.4mm
    Vellore – 224.1mm
    Bangalore – 353mm
    Bangalore AP – 313mm

    Bangalore records the highest monthly rainfall in the abovementioned places.

    Highest 24 hour rainfall – Pondicherry 99mm

  21. Contest Results.

    Santosh,Raijin,Arjunlv – 15
    Pradeep,Rajkmr – 14
    Karthik – 10
    Velayudham – 7
    Novak – 5
    “KEA – 4”
    Nellaivel,Rame,Cat5hurricane – 2

  22. NEM onset after the bay storm crossing the coast. This system will pull the moisture from Andaman Sea and South China Sea when nearing the east coast of India.

    After it crossed all those winds from south china sea will be at Easterlies Pattern.

  23. Points Status – ( Still 1 Day )

    Veluyadham – 231
    Gopal666 – 216
    Srikanth – 174
    Raijin – 146
    Pradeep – 145
    Kea – 130
    Rame1975 – 120.25
    Rajarathnam2004 – 100.4
    Shiva – 96
    Rajkmr – 88.15
    parthasri35 – 87.4
    ArjunLV – 84
    Paul Abraham – 82
    Sailu – 78
    sksvram – 43.55

  24. October 3rd mid night rains could well be the last rains this season from the west..Here on we can start monitoring the radar with things happening in the bay..

  25. From Karthik Raghavan – Regarding NEM Announcement by IMD

    1) Persistent Surface level easterlies and at 850hpa

    2) Min of 3cm average rain costal tn district or 2cm average rain in interior tn districts

    NEM Can’t sent in before 10th Oct

  26. Super Rainfall in Maharashtra from the UAC
    —————–
    in mm ending 8.30 am on 5th October

    These are stations apart from the list provided by IMD

    Lamaj – 280.0
    Chatav – 207.8
    Kulwandi – 201.0
    Poynar – 195.2
    Kondiware – 186.0
    Shirshi – 183.0
    Gulvane – 181.6
    Lavel – 178.6
    Malgund – 176.6
    Assured – 167.2
    Bharne – 165.0
    Latwan – 160.8
    Phansop – 160.0
    Malgund – 145.0
    Kudup – 143.0
    Dhamnand – 138.0
    Phungus – 136.4
    Kurdhunda – 133.8
    Nandivase – 133.6
    Bamnoli – 129.0
    Dabhil – 122.0
    Murdav – 118.0
    Govalkot – 117.0
    Pimpali – 116.0
    Khamgaon – 114.0
    Tarwal – 113.0
    Makhjan – 112.0
    Dabhol – 111.2
    Lajul – 106.2
    Khedshi – 105.1
    Mandangad – 103.0
    Mabhale – 102.0
    Devhare – 98.0
    Thitewadi – 96.0
    Kurkheda – 93.0
    Bhimkund – 92.8
    Gothangaon Bori – 92.2
    Girye – 92.0
    Mirvane – 90.6
    Shiroda – 90.1
    Shriwardhan – 87.0
    Walvati – 86.0
    Vilvade – 85.0
    Ambavali – 78.0
    Shankarpur – 77.8
    Lakhandur – 76.4
    Virdi – 76.2
    Pawas – 75.0
    Korchi – 74.6
    Pisewadtha – 73.0
    Waki – 72.6
    Asga – 72.2
    Kumbharkhani – 72.2
    Parali – 70.0
    Wadsa – 70.0
    Parali – 70.0
    Jafrabad – 70.0
    Lakhandur – 70.0
    Kurkheda – 70.0

    • Thanks PJ

      IT SEEMS THE TURN OF MAHARASHTRA AFTER GUJARAT TO GET BOUNTIFUL RAINS….

      IS THIS THE SIGN OF SWM WITHDRAWAL ?

      PLEASE POST THE LINKS I ASKED FOR IN THE AFTERNOON .

      HAVE A NICE SUNDAY AHEAD !!!

  27. October 1st week coming to end — 2013 global hurricane activity remains historically low

    • North Atlantic tropical cyclone ACE is -69% (below normal). 5th lowest since 1950. –
    • Northern Hemisphere ACE is -53% (below normal). Lowest since 1977.
    • Global ACE is -46% (below normal). Lowest since 1977….
    ACE- ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY

  28. its tough to predict weather and even more difficult wen it comes to cyclone….. numerical models has helped forecasters to a great extent .. it depends on basin…navgem,cmc scores good in one basin and gfs in another couple of basin,..,overall hwrf,ecmwf,gfs, mm5(output from the combination of ncep gfs and ecmwf model) r the key models could b considered to neglect errors…. ncmwrf (WRF) also carries importance here..

    • For INDIAN OCEAN and adjoining areas which model is more accurate ?

      SUSA long ago said BBC predictions are good for NEM.

      What is your opinion on this ?

      • tat is his personal opinion…am not going to say anything abt it… imd wrf,ecmwrf, gfs,ncmwrf,navgem for indian ocean…. i hav gonethru BBC hardly 5 times in my life time.. not sure abt it

  29. @ PJ, @SELCYCLONE

    Do not mistake me for asking same thing to both of you.

    I wanted to clarify and compare with different models about weather prediction & forecast

    That’s all .

    Thank you both.

    If possible can any one of you post the URLs for the same.

      • OKAY , I will ask if there is any doubt.

        I will try to minimize asking questions and repeat posts .

        Any way thanks SEL for your advice & help.

        Have a nice Sunday.

        Good night !!!

    • AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9N 102.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051119Z WINDSAT IMAGE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. SINCE THE LLCC APPEARS DISORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

  30. VAGARIES FORECAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT

    Some models show the UAC from central axis spilling some rains in Delhi and North MP areas from later next week. But it depends on the UAC position and strength, so we will monitor the system after it forms. Otherwise, call for withdrawal !

    BB-14,now in the foothills, will create a mini “break Monsoon” in central India and interior peninsula. But only till Tuesday 8th.
    The axis on Tuesday “frees itself” and moves into the central India area, in the Gujarat/MP/Chattisgarh line.

    But, it is very possible that an UAC may form in the axis in the Southern MP region by Tuesday or Wednesday.
    Hence, after subdued rainfall in the NW and Central India and interior peninsula on Sunday /Monday, rains increase in MP and North interior Maharashtra again from Tuesday.

    • Vagaries forecast on Saturday Night
      (Continuation to the above post )

      A low pressure forms in the Andaman region by Monday, 7th October. Seeing the present winds and upper jet streams, i would expect the system to track NW towards the AP/Odisha coast. Should be at least of Depression strength on reaching the coast by the 13/14th October.

      The west coast trough weakening after the UAC has crossed the Goa coast, should spell well for Chennai.

      Chennai City may see an increase in its thunder showers activity from Tuesday and continue in the week.

      However, the winds would remain W/SW. We will wait for the axis to slide down and track the outcome of the low/depression coming next week to determine the date of the NEM. Generally set in not before 19th/20th at least.

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