471 thoughts on “Hot start to October

  1. The  low   pressure   area  over   Odisha   and   neighbourhood  
    now   lies   over   Odisha   and   adjoining
    Chhattisgarh . Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending 
    upto mid­tropospheric levels.

  2. The   upper  air  cyclonic  circulation  over  north Gujarat 
    and  adjoining  south  Rajasthan  now  lies  over
    Saurashtra and neighbourhood  extending upto 3.1 Km above
    mean sea level.

  3. 02 October: 
    Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over 
    Chhattisgarh. Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Odisha, 
    Gangetic west Bengal,  Jharkhand, east Madhya Pradesh, 
    Vidarbha, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. 

    03 October:
    Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over east Madhya Pradesh, 
    Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand

    04  October: 
    Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over east Madhya Pradesh,
    Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and east Uttar Pradesh.

  4. This monsoon set to be longest in over 50 yearsTNN | Oct 1, 2013, 11.41PM IST NEW DELHI: This year, the monsoon in Delhi is expected to be one of the longest since the Indian meteorological department started maintaining records in 1941. Having broken over Delhi on June 16, around 15 days before normal, the system is showing no signs of withdrawing so far. With another spell of rain expected around October 3 and 4, met officials say that withdrawal could happen around October 13.Between June 1 and September 30, the city has recorded 875.8mm rainfall, 35mm more than normal for the period. The annual normal rainfall in Delhi is 780mm.Earlier, the longest monsoon over Delhi was recorded in 1956. Dr O P Singh, deputy director general of the Delhi regional meteorological centre said, “The current monsoon is likely to be the longest over Delhi and NCR since the department had started maintaining records in 1941. Previously, the longest monsoon over Delhi was in 1956 when it lasted 111 days. In view of the predicted rainfall spells over Delhi in the coming week, the length of the 2013 monsoon could easily surpass it. The normal monsoon duration over the capital is only 85 days,” he said.The monsoon had set over the city on June 16 as a result of the rapid progression of low pressure from northwest Bay of Bengal on June 11. This had covered the whole of northwest India in a matter of days. It also resulted in the advance of the southwest monsoon over the entire country almost a month before normal and over Delhi and NCR about 15 days before normal. The season has been characterized by regular spells of rain over northwest India due to continuous formations of low pressure areas over the Bay of Bengal.officials of the regional meteorological centre said that even though subdued monsoon activity was observed over Delhi during the first fortnight of September because of absence of monsoon circulation over northwest India, there was a sudden revival from September 21 when Safdarjung reported 28.6mm of rain.”A low pressure system is present over Odisha and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal and a circulation over southeast Rajasthan. Due to this twin system, moist easterly winds are likely to prevail over northwest India” said an official. Times of india…

  5. The reason for dry phase(somewhat dry) is because of the MJO. It is preventing the clouds to grow taller than 10 km which is preventing severe thunderstorms. Yesterday should’ve been a monstrous thunderstorm, but Nungambakkam ended up getting only 6 mm 😐

  6. Withdrawal storms are forming in Guwahati-Surat stretch. We need to monitor where these form. If they start forming in interior TN, then it means NEM is nearing

  7. There’ll be a day when many places in interior TN get >10 cm rainfall. The storms will either be stationary or move from somewhere from NNW – NE towards SSE- SW. If that starts happening, then NEM onset will occur within one week.

  8. This LPA over Odisha moves inland towards North MP, then to Delhi in 03rd, then back to UP and Bihar by 05th, 06th & 07th. then dissipating by 09th.

    Will bring more rains to Chattisgarh, MP, Delhi, UP, Uttarakhand and Bihar in next 1 week time.

  9. This looks like another SWM type LPA forming near Andaman. Not actual NEM since low pressure is prevailing over some parts of central and south central india along with rest of south india

  10. Vagaries forecast

    Posted Tuesday 1st October Night:

    BB-14 now lies over Orissa, and expected to move N/NW into Madhya Pradesh. It should linger around the Northern MP region till Thursday 3rd October.
    After Friday 4th October, it is expected to fizzle out and float cloudiness in the Northern MP and adjoining Western and South Western UP region on Thursday/Friday. Of-course, a detailed forecast will follow.

    Mumbai will see the same pattern of passing showers till Thursday. A heavy thunderstorm likely on Thursday or Friday. Maybe the penultimate storm ?? Seeing withdrawal next week.
    Pune can also get a thunder shower on Friday.

    Light showers in several parts of NCR will prevail till Thursday, before seeing a decrease thereafter..
    Kolkata sees a continuation of thunder showers till Friday..

    Meanwhile, till Friday, the Southern Part of East coast (AP and TN) remain in a high pressure zone.
    Chennai: Likelyhood of a good thunder shower on Wednesday.

    As no other low is expected till Sunday 7th, in the Bay, we can see a re-withdrawal of SWM from Rajasthan and adjoining regional states after Thursday, 3rd October.


    NE Monsoon Watch -1….1st October 2013

    An Introductory Note on the Basic Conditions and Formation of the North East Monsoon:

    With the 2013 rainy seasons hesitating to change between the SWM and NEM, an amateur’s attempt at a brief Summary of the NEM.

    -The SWM onset is well defined, and follows a well coursed out Northward progress. And can be discerned with reasonable accuracy on charts.
    For the NEM, it is not so.
    In fact, on many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
    So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.

    -The SWM has its origin, its “Power House”, is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.

    -During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure systems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

    Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

    -The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.
    -The Upper Air temperatures show a Northward gradient in the NEM. Near 10N it is normally warmest, and dropping by 8c at 30N.

    -Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons.
    In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

    -The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.

    -The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.

    Some points taken from Bose’s book.

    The 2nd Part of this will cover the parameters involved in the setting of the NEM…will be published on 3rd October at 11 pm IST.

    • Meghamalai mountain range can be approached two ways—from Theni via Chinnamanur and from Andipatti via Kandamanayakkanur. Both Theni and Andipatti can be easily accessed by road from Madurai and Dindigul. Theni, which is 76 km from Madurai. The approach via Chinnamannur is more scenic. Only forest lodges and panchayath rest house are available at the hill top. Prior reservation and permission is an absolute must. If looking for a night stay here, you can make room reservation from the forest check-post located 3 KM from Chinnamannur on way to Meghamalai. Must reach the check-post at least before 5 PM, if you are looking for a night stay in Meghamalai. Day-trippers may stay in a number of moderately priced hotels in Theni, Chinnamanur and Andipatti. Distance from Madurai 130 km.

      Courtesy WIKIPEDIA

  12. @Rame

    Only kea has access to kea.metsite files I think. Only he can upload it. It’l be better if Kea declares the results

    • anvil cloud [′an·vəl ‚klau̇d]
      The popular name given to a cumulonimbus capillatus cloud, a thunderhead whose upper portion spreads in the form of an anvil with a fibrous or smooth aspect; it also refers to such an upper portion alone when it persists beyond the parent cloud.

      • Anvil Cloud
        a cumulonimbus cloud whose top part is flattened out in the shape of an anvil of solid or fibrous structure and has a bright white color in sunlight. The anvil cloud consists of ice crystals and forms when a cumulonimbus cloud reaches a level with a temperature on the order of —10°C and lower.

  13. The  chief amounts of  rainfall  (2  cm or more)  recorded at 1730 hours IST of yesterday were:

    Behrampore­7; Bilaspur­4; Shimla, Paradip, 
    Jharsuguda and Chandrapur­3 each; Balasore, 
    Jagdalpur and Shantiniketan­2; each.


    Kalavai AWS (Vellore Dist) 6, Chengam (Tiruvannamalai Dist) 5, Arani (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Kancheepuram (Kancheepuram Dist) 3 each, Gobichettipalayam (Erode Dist), Gudiyatham (Vellore Dist) 2 each,
    Mahabalipuram (Kancheepuram Dist), DGP office (Chennai Dist),
    Sriperumbudur (Kancheepuram Dist), Bhavani (Erode Dist),
    Red hills (Tiruvallur Dist), Pochampalli (Krishnagiri Dist),
    Kumarapalayam (Namakkal Dist), Tirupathur pto (Vellore Dist) 1 each.


    Kochi A.P & Ernakulam South (both in Ernakulam district),
    Cherthala (Alappuzha district) & Varkala (Thiruvananthapuram district)
    2 each and Thiruvananthapuram City, Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram district), CIAL Kochi (Ernakulam district), Alappuzha, Kayamkulam &Kayamkulam_Agri (both in Alappuzha district), Taliparamba (Kannur district), Kudulu (Kasaragod district), Aryankavu (Kollam district), Vaikom (Kottayam district), Kurudamannil (Pathanamthitta district) 1 each.


    Metpalli (dist Karimnagar) 5, Sirpur (dist Adilabad) 4, Asifabad (dist Adilabad) 4, Kaleswaram (dist Karimnagar) 4, Chinnoor (dist Adilabad) 4, Dowleshwaram (dist East Godavari) 4, Rajahmundry (dist East Godavari) 3, Jagtial (dist Karimnagar) 3, Manthani (dist Karimnagar) 3, Alampur (dist Mahbubnagar) 2, Jagtial(a) (dist Karimnagar) 2, Yellandu (dist Khammam) 2, Srisailam (dist Kurnool) 2, Aswaraopet(a) (dist Khammam) 1, Vikarabad (dist Rangareddy) 1, Kollapur (dist Mahbubnagar) 1, Khanapur (dist Adilabad) 1, Luxettipet (dist Adilabad) 1, Mancherial (dist Adilabad) 1, Huzurabad (dist Karimnagar) 1, Kunavaram (dist Khammam) 1, Bapatla (dist Guntur) 1.


    Bhagamandala (Kodagu dt) 8; Badami (Bagalkote dt) 7, T Narasipura (Mysore dt) 5; Halebeedu (Hassan dt) 4; Uppinangady, Subramanya (both Dakshina Kannada dt) 3 each; Panambur, Dharmasthala, Sulya (both Dakshina Kannada dt), Gadag, Ron (Gadag dt), B.Bagewadi (Bijapur dt), Kalgi (Gulbarga dt), Narayanpura (Yadgir dt), Sorab (Shimoga dt), Sandur (Bellary dt), Nayakanahatti (Chitradurga dt) 2 each; Mulki (Dakshina Kannada dt), Karkala (Udupi dt), Gangavathi, Hanumasagar (both Koppal dt), Bableshwar, Tikkota (both Bijapur dt), Dhadesugur ARG (Raichur dt), Madikeri, Napoklu (Kodagu dt), CR Patna (Hassan dt), Begur (Chamarajanagar dt) 1 each.

  18. Chennai City:

    For next 24 hours:
    The sky conditions would be generally cloudy. Rain or thundershower may occur in some areas during evening or night. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 35 and 26 degree Celsius respectively.

    For next 48 hours:
    The sky conditions would be generally cloudy. Rain or thundershower may occur in some areas during evening or night. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 35 and 26 degree Celsius respectively.

  19. Monsoon 2013 Seasonal Rainfall

     The cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole during southwest monsoon 2013
    (1st June to 30 th September) is 6% above the LPA.

     The cumulative seasonal rainfall is above normal/excess over all the four
    homogeneous regions except east & northeast India, where it was 28% below LPA.

     Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 14, normal
    over 16 and deficient over 06 (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland,
    Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Jharkhand, Bihar and Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi).

     In area-wise distribution, 48% area of the country received excess & 38 % area
    received normal rainfall. Remaining 14% area received deficient rainfall.

  20. The low pressure area over Odisha & neighbourhood would move west-northwestwards during 3 days. Under the influence of the mid tropospheric westerly
    trough, it may re-curve and move in northeast direction thereafter

  21. Rainfall in Odisha Yesterday

    Stations 24 Hrs R/F ending at 0830 hrs IST
    BALASORE 76.8
    PARADIP 28.9
    GOPALPUR 8.7
    SONEPUR 2.8
    PURI 2
    HIRAKUD 1.1

  22. ForeCasts:-

    Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over Central India & adjoining
    areas on many day of the week and over Odisha, West Bengal and north Andhra
    Pradesh during next 48 hours.

  23. Isolated/ scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over remaining parts of the
    country outside Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Rajasthan and
    Saurashtra & Kutch where weather may be mainly dry during 2 ndhalf of the week.

  24. HEAVY RainFall Warning:-

    01 October: Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over
    Odisha. Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Jharkhand,
    Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

    • i just wanted to see how it feels and did 9 posts in 3 minutes.. but if i do really get started on the 90% useless updates from IMD..would easily touch a 1000 in a single day.

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