497 thoughts on “After 3 days of break, Rains are expected in Chennai for next 2 days

  1. 4th day of Heavy Rains in Kerala
    ————————
    in mm ending 8.30 am on 16.09.2013

    Vadakara – 110
    Taliparamba – 85
    Panniyur – 80
    Vyanthala – 67
    Kannur – 63
    Piravom – 58
    Chalakudy – 56
    Thodupuzha – 52
    Pookot – 51
    Thrissur – 50
    Cherthalazam – 50
    Kuttiyadi – 49
    Thamarasserry – 48
    Perinthalmanna – 47
    Karipur – 47
    Quilandy – 43
    Mannarkad – 43
    Chalakudy Dam – 40
    Nilambur – 37
    Vellanikkara – 36
    Perumbavur – 35
    Peermade – 32
    Poringal – 31
    Konni – 30
    Kudlu – 27
    Ernakulam – 27
    Mattanur – 27
    Aryankavu – 25
    Kottayam – 25
    Vythiri – 24
    Thalasserry – 24
    Haripad – 24
    Idamalayar – 24
    Panamkutty – 24
    Kottarakkara – 23
    Kochi AP – 22
    Chengannur – 21
    Vaikom – 20
    Aluva – 20
    Manjeri – 20
    CIAL Kochi – 20
    Pamba – 20
    Idukki – 19
    Vazhathope – 19
    Ottappalam – 19
    Kayamkulam – 17
    Kozhikode – 16
    Neeriyamangalam – 16
    Alathur – 16
    Anakayam – 15
    Peruvannamuzhi – 15
    Pattambi – 15
    Mavelikkara – 14
    Palakkad – 13
    Kumarakom – 12
    Kodungallur – 11
    Alappuzha – 11
    Thariode – 11
    Cherthala – 10
    Mananthavady – 10
    Kayamkulam – 10
    Punalur – 10
    Ponnani – 10
    Kakki – 10
    Ponmudi – 10
    Munnar – 10

  2. Vagaries forecast for next 3 days for Peninsular India

    Posted on Monday(16th) Night:

    Monsoon Axis has slid to the Central Regions of India. The SWM is expected to withdraw from more regions by Wednesday.
    The West coast trough has activated, and an UAC is forming off the S.Konkan Coast. Due to high pressure building up in the Central India region, a Line of Discontinuity forms in the Central Mah. region .
    The Eastern End of the axis will host an UAC in the Bay by the 17th or 18th.

    Tuesday 17th: Thunder storms along Konkan (interiors), Marathwada and Eastern Goa (The ghats region). Adjoining N.I.Karntaka.
    Places to watch out for heavy rains: Belgaum district and Raichur District in Karnataka, South Konkan . Kurnool and Hyderabad regions in AP.
    In Maharashtra, Marathwada can receive heavy rains. (Nanded and Parbhani districts).

    Wednesday 18th: Precipitation in Coastal Karnataka. Vidharbha gets thunder showers on Wednesday.
    Heavy Rainfall to watch in Bellary and Gadag districts.
    Kolhapur, Solapur and Satara District can get heavy rains in some pockets. Some outer townships of Mumbai.

    Wednesday 18th :Special for 3 Metros:
    Kolkata: Thunder storm in Kolkata on Wednesday.

    Mumbai: Tuesday, winds will turn to Northerlies. Evening thunder showers will drift from the East. Wednesday some parts of city can expect heavy rains accompanied by thunder and lightning.
    For those enthusiasts monitoring the official rain amounts for Mumbai, i feel another 50-55 mms (accumulated) possible till Friday 20th.
    Outer townships: Thunder showers developing on Tuesday in many regions. On Wednesday, downpours will be heavy in some cities in the Eastern townships.

    Chennai: Also in line with the other 2 metro cities, can expect thunder showers on Wednesday.

    Pune :Thunder showers in some parts of city on Tuesday 17th, and heavier intensity on Wednesday 18th.

    • Follow up Post: Monday Mid Day Situation:

      1. The Northern WD has ,moved East and is over Kashmir. A trough from the system runs Southwards. In a speedy development (due to various factors), an UAC has formed in the trough situated early morning Monday over Punjab/HP. This has strengthened the trough.

      2. As a result, the WD and the ensuing trough has pushed the Monsoon axis into MP and Orissa. The western end of the axis is over Kutch, and running thru MP/Orissa , the Eastern end emerges in the Bay. Wind circulations and axis alignment with the shear show the possibility of an UAC in the Bay by Tuesday.

      3. The Western end of axis dipping South into Kutch, has also re-activated the trough off the West Coast of India. This was mentioned in Sunday night article of vagaries. Now, it can be further strengthened by a UAC off the Goa coast soon.

      Courtesy : Vagaries

  3. Tuesday
    TS – Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain, then thunderstorms in the afternoon.
    High of 32C with a heat index of 37C.
    Winds from the WSW at 5 to 20 km/h.
    Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 11.9 mm possible.

    Tuesday Night
    TS – Overcast with thunderstorms. Low of 25C. Breezy.
    Winds from the SW at 10 to 20 km/h.
    Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 6.6 mm possible.

  4. Entry closed

    Contest Prediction (17th Sept 2013)

    Nunga Max
    33.4 (Srikanth)
    33.7 (PJ)
    33.8 (Sudharshan)
    33.9 (Raijin)
    34.0 (Rame1975 & Cat5Hurricane & Paul Abraham)
    34.2 (Velayudham)
    34.4 (Novaknole)
    34.5 (Parthasri & Sailudavey)
    35.2 (Kea)

    Meena Max
    33.9 (Srikanth)
    34.0 (Sailudavey & Sudharshan)
    34.1 (Raijin)
    34.2 (Novaknole, PJ & Paul Abraham)
    34.5 (Rame1975)
    34.8 (Velayudham)
    35.0 (Cat5Hurricane)
    35.1 (Parthasri)
    35.2 (Kea)

    Nunga rainfall
    0 mm (Kea)
    10 mm (Sudharshan)
    12 mm (Paul Abraham)
    15 mm (Velayudham & Cat5hurricane)
    20 mm (Sailudavey)
    21 mm (Srikanth)
    25 mm (Rame1975)
    27 mm (Novaknole & PJ)
    30 mm (Raijin)

    Meena rainfall
    5 mm (Kea)
    10 mm (Velayudham & Cat5Hurricane)
    15 mm (Raijin & Sudharshan)
    16 mm (Paul Abraham)
    17 mm (PJ & Srikanth)
    25 mm (Saludavey & Rame1975)
    28 mm (Novaknole)

  5. TAMIL NADU DAILY RAINFALL DATED 17.09.2013

    THE CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECORDED IN CENTIMETRES AT 0830 HOURS IST :
    Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist) 5, Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist) 4, Devala (Nilgiris Dist), Vellore (Vellore Dist), Chatrapatti (Dindigul Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist) and Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist) 3 each, Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), R.k.pet (Tiruvallur Dist), Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist), Polur (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Panchapatti (Karur Dist) and Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist) 2 each and Sholingur (Vellore Dist), Kulithalai (Karur Dist), Tozhudur (Cuddalore Dist), Denkanikottai (Krishnagiri Dist), Kamatchipuram (Dindigul Dist), Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist), Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist), Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist), Mayanur (Karur Dist), Tirukoilur (Villupuram Dist), Namakkal (Namakkal Dist), Coonoor pto (Nilgiris Dist) and Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist) 1 each.

    • Observations recorded at 0830 hrs IST on 17.09.2013

      (WEATHER OVER TAMIL NADU & PUDUCHERRY)

      STATION

      MAXIMUM TEMP

      (ΒΊ C)

      MINIMUM TEMP

      (ΒΊ C)

      RAINFALL (MM UPTO 0830 HOURS)

      ADIRAMPATNAM 32.7 26.0 0.0
      CHENNAI NUNGAMBAKKAM 33.6 26.5 0.0
      CHENNAI AP 34.0 25.6 0.0
      COIMBATORE AP 30.2 23.0 Trace
      COONOOR 22.0 15.7 3.2
      CUDDALORE 35.1 26.0 0.0
      DHARMAPURI 30.8 20.6 1.0
      KANYAKUMARI 29.7 24.0 6.2
      KARAIKAL 33.4 26.7 0.0
      KARUR PARAMATHI 35.6 25.0 0.0
      KODAIKANAL 20.2 13.2 1.8
      MADURAI AP 36.6 25.4 0.0
      NAGAPATTINAM 33.4 26.5 0.0
      PALAYAMKOTTAI 35.2 26.3 0.0
      PAMBAN 31.9 27.0 0.0
      PARANGIPETTAI 34.2 27.0 0.0
      PUDUCHERRY 35.2 27.0 0.0
      SALEM 32.8 23.3 0.0
      TIRUCHIRAPALLI 36.1 25.1 1.4
      TIRUPATHUR 31.4 19.4 0.0
      TONDI 32.4 26.8 0.0
      THOOTHUKUDI 33.5 26.7 0.0
      VALPARAI 22.0 17.5 47.6
      VELLORE 31.4 24.0 30.2

  6. Popups near Kalrayan Hills, but they might fade off soon. We need to wait for atleast another hour for the original popups to begin

  7. @PJ

    You can call it a draw πŸ™‚ Because yesterday, I was saying it’ll move in line with Chennai, but rains are doubtful. But if it is chart vs animation I win because movement was clear SW to NE as shown by PAC. But we can call it a draw

  8. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with virtually all indicators at near-normal levels. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the remainder of 2013. Only one of the seven models surveyed suggests a brief period of La Nina-like cooling of the tropical Pacific.

    The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has weakened considerably over the past month and a half, with IOD-neutral values prevailing since early August. The consensus of climate models is for the IOD to remain neutral for the remainder of the year, suggesting that the 2013 negative IOD is most likely at an end.

  9. @PJ

    Let’s see how contest goes today with SW to NE movement again πŸ™‚ Maybe we can say something after a potential storm form

  10. @Cheeka

    I don’t think much can be said unless it comes close. It can completely dissipate or flank towards SE and hit south Chennai too… Let’s wait and watch

  11. Meenambakkam got 91 mm on June 2nd from a pre monsoon shower. Nungambakkam got only 1 mm from that. 4 days later, Meenambakkam got 28 mm and Nungambakkam 15 mm from another pre monsoon shower.

    • That is because there is a strong West to East wind at 850 HPA levels just off Chennai. The winds are from South West, south of Chennai. So better chance for us is to have storms to our west.

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