515 thoughts on “Rains to begin by Saturday evening

  1. Today
    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain, then thunderstorms in the afternoon. High of 33C with a heat index of 36C. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 km/h shifting to the East in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80%.

  2. Today Night
    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the evening, then overcast with thunderstorms. Low of 26C. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 20 mm possible.

  3. May be we should have a daily poll / contest. Would be fun to track who gets the predictions correct on a regular basis. What is your view guys? While the monthly contest is there, we have no role to play after 7th except hoping our predictions come true. Add the daily contest points to the monthly contest points and announce a winner

  4. Those rain clouds from NE wont affect us,it will dissipate soon,our only hope is evening/afternoon thunderstorms,from my little experience in weather,i can say that i ve never witnessed rain clouds moving in from sea during SWM

  5. @srikant– pls see the animation carefully..the mass is descending towards us from the sea..yes it seems to be deceasing in intensity,but is also growing new small red spots in the front..we need to watch this interesting piece as it unfolds

  6. Lot of pop us expected from the UAC to form inland, These can grow in size.

    mid level winds changing to W. Pushing it out. I still think the UAC can bring lots of pop ups which will blow in size.

    3 days total of 150 mm, i am still standing by it.

  7. Chennai winds would become W/NW as system moves inland. UAC may move west and go towards Blore..rains by late afternoon/evening in Chennai..

    Latest report from Rajesh Sir-Vagaries.

  8. Yes we all need to be a little patient. Rains will come surely for Chennai from this system. If we get a ZERO today don’t be surprised. Main rain is forecasted to occur tomorrow.

  9. @ PJ

    Can you explain the ” Z” suffix in the time of satellite images published by IMD ?
    Does it mean we have to add 5.30 hours or take it as real time ?

    IS the LPA formed or still UAC is prevailing? If LPA forms it will be near TN or ANDHRA coast ?

    By: rame1975 on September 7, 2013
    at 1:29 pm

    Reply

    Latest Insat colour composite image

  10. Observations recorded at 0830 hrs IST on 07.09.2013

    (WEATHER OVER TAMIL NADU & PUDUCHERRY)

    STATION

    MAXIMUM TEMP

    (º C)

    MINIMUM TEMP

    (º C)

    RAINFALL (MM UPTO 0830 HOURS)

    ADIRAMPATNAM 33.8 23.2 0.0
    CHENNAI NUNGAMBAKKAM 35.1 25.2 0.0
    CHENNAI AP 35.2 24.4 1.8
    COIMBATORE AP 31.2 21.5 4.9
    COONOOR 20.6 14.4 4.3
    CUDDALORE 34.4 22.2 55.4
    DHARMAPURI 30.4 19.0 65.0
    KANYAKUMARI 27.8 24.0 0.5
    KARAIKAL 31.8 21.9 53.6
    KARUR PARAMATHI 34.4 23.0 12.8
    KODAIKANAL 17.2 11.5 8.9
    MADURAI AP 32.8 23.6 14.1
    NAGAPATTINAM 32.4 21.8 59.7
    PALAYAMKOTTAI 33.0 26.5 0.0
    PAMBAN 30.4 25.6 0.6
    PARANGIPETTAI 33.0 22.8 15.0
    PUDUCHERRY 32.9 23.3 23.9
    SALEM 31.7 20.7 46.2
    TIRUCHIRAPALLI 32.0 23.1 3.6
    TIRUPATHUR 30.4 18.4 14.0
    TONDI 30.0 25.4 0.0
    THOOTHUKUDI 32.0 25.7 0.0
    VALPARAI 25.0 16.5 7.6
    VELLORE 33.1 24.8 0.0

  11. ரமேஷ் உன் ஆர்வத்துக்கு அளவே இல்லாம போயிடுச்சே…. 🙂

    உன் ஆர்வத்துக்கு – இன்றைக்கே கல்யாணம் இன்றைக்கே ​​​ ___________

    😀 :mrgreen: 😀 :mrgreen: 😀 :mrgreen: 😀

    • DRINKING WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS CHENNAI

      Name of Reservoir

      Last Year Live
      Storage

      Depth Capacity
      feet M.Cft

      Current Year Live
      Storage

      Depth Capacity

      Inflow cusecs

      Rainfall – mm
      FEET M.Cft FEET M.Cft INFLOW R/F
      Poondi 23.01 579 20.68 315 162 –
      Sholavaram 1.23 85 0.00 – – –
      Redhills 10.83 1380 4.73 646 210 –
      Chembarambakkam 14.25 1397 8.07 515 –
      Veeranam 0.00 – 7.00 1091 640 29

  12. From now till tomorrow evening, Heavy rain expected for W-Ghats Kerala, S Karnataka, N,N-E,central,central-coast Tamilnadu
    courtesy- Indian weather man

  13. Immaterial of whether it rains for us ..meaning, our city, hope this projected UAC gives bountiful rain to Rayalaseema, Interior Karnataka and Interior Maharashtra. These regions are perennially drought prone and key rainfall period for them is Sep and Oct.

    • TAMIL NADU DAILY RAINFALL DATED 07.09.2013

      THE CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECORDED IN CENTIMETRES AT 0830 HOURS IST :

      Aduthurai AWS (Thanjavur Dist) 10, Uthangarai (Krishnagiri Dist) 9, Sankarapuram (Villupuram Dist), Mylam AWS (Villupuram Dist), Vedasandur (Dindigul Dist) 8 each, Musiri (Trichy Dist), Dharmapuri pto (Dharmapuri Dist), Kumbakonam (Thanjavur Dist) 7 each, Dharamapuri (Dharmapuri Dist), Nagapattinam (Nagapattinam Dist), Sethiathope (Cuddalore Dist), Upper anaicut (Trichy Dist), Gingee (Villupuram Dist), Thammampatty (Salem Dist), Krishnagiri (Krishnagiri Dist) 6 each, Cuddalore (Cuddalore Dist), Harur (Dharmapuri Dist), Sathanur Dam (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Sendurai (Ariyalur Dist), Karaikal (Karaikal Dist), Ariyalur (Ariyalur Dist), Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist), Bhavani (Erode Dist), Vilupuram (Villupuram Dist), Paiyur AWS (Krishnagiri Dist), Salem (Salem Dist), Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist), Thathiengrpet (Trichy Dist) 5 each, Annur (Coimbatore Dist), Palacode (Dharmapuri Dist), Kulithalai (Karur Dist), Penucondapuram (Krishnagiri Dist), Attur (Salem Dist), Vanur (Villupuram Dist), Yercaud (Salem Dist), Panchapatti (Karur Dist), Thiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur Dist) 4 each, Devala (Nilgiris Dist), K.m.koil (Cuddalore Dist), Thuraiyur (Trichy Dist), Kallakurichi (Villupuram Dist), Pappireddipatti (Dharmapuri Dist), ChiDambaram (Cuddalore Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Anaikaranchatram(KolliDam (Nagapattinam Dist), G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Erode (Erode Dist), Mayanur (Karur Dist), Usilampatti (Madurai Dist), Omalur (Salem Dist), Chengam (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Barur (Krishnagiri Dist) 3 each, Pondicherry (Puducherry Dist), Marandahalli (Dharmapuri Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Papanasam (Thanjavur Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist), Thanjavur (Thanjavur Dist), Chittampatti (Madurai Dist), Vazhapadi (Salem Dist), Vaniaymbadi (Vellore Dist), Alangayam (Vellore Dist), Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Sirkali (Nagapattinam Dist), Dindigul (Dindigul Dist), Thogamalai (Karur Dist), Natham (Dindigul Dist), Grand anaicut (Thanjavur Dist) 2 each, Karur (Karur Dist), Aravakurichi (Karur Dist), Parangipettai (Cuddalore Dist), Srimushnam (Cuddalore Dist), Virudachalam (Cuddalore Dist), Uthagamandalam AWS (Nilgiris Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist), Samayapuram (Trichy Dist), Marakkanam (Villupuram Dist), Tirukoilur (Villupuram Dist), Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Tirupathur pto (Vellore Dist), Pennagaram (Dharmapuri Dist), Thalavadi (Erode Dist), Trangambadi(or)tranqueb (Nagapattinam Dist), K.paramathi (Karur Dist), Arani (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Nilakottai (Dindigul Dist), Sankaridurg (Salem Dist), Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist), Panruti (Cuddalore Dist), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Kodumudi (Erode Dist), Pochampalli (Krishnagiri Dist), Melur (Madurai Dist), Cheyyar (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Tirupattur (Vellore Dist), Maduranthagam (Kancheepuram Dist), Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar Dist), Vallam (Thanjavur Dist), Lalgudi (Trichy Dist), Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist), Uthagamandalam (Nilgiris Dist), Kadavur (Karur Dist), Thirumanur (Ariyalur Dist), Periyanaickenpalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Pullambadi (Trichy Dist), Valparai PTO (Coimbatore Dist) 1 each.

  14. Isolated heavy rain may occur over Tamil Nadu / Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Ghat areas of South Interior Karnataka during the next 48 hours.

  15. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING:

    Isolated heavy rain would occur over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next 48 hours.

    OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS: No significant change.

    • FORECAST FOR CHENNAI CITY AND NEIGHBOURHOOD:

      For next 24 hours:

      The sky conditions would be partly cloudy. Rain or thundershower may occur in some areas during evening or night. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 34 and 26 degree Celsius respectively.

      For next 48 hours:

      The sky conditions would be partly cloudy. Rain or thundershower may occur in some areas during evening or night. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 34 and 26 degree Celsius respectively.

      FARMERS WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY FORECAST VALID UNTIL THE MORNING OF 09th September 2013:

      Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at many places over all the districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry

  16. @ PJ

    IMD NEW DELHI analysis

    Meteorological analysis based on 0830 hrs IST

    Axis of Monsoon trough runs close to foothills of Himalayas.

    A vortex lies off north Kerala coast.

    The trough in lower levels from Sub­Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to westcentral Bay of Bengal with
    embedded cyclonic circulation over westcentral Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood extending upto 4.5 km
    above mean sea level persists. Under its influence a low pressure area would form during next 24 hours.

    Will the vortex off north Kerala coast oppose the UAC or weaken it ?

  17. @ PJ , @ SUSA

    Latest DWR image shows some promise.

    Something is approaching from SOUTHWEST direction and another one is approaching from east >

    Will any one give rain to chennai ?

    • Nope… both are moving towards SSE, so a squall like band will form only in the sea well away from TN coast 😦

  18. Posted by Pradeep John in FB

    What was expected to Chennai has happened to MAchilipattnam. Popup blown out of proportion. All positive for Chennai.

    see the wind direction in machilipattnam radar in ppv2

    Our radar is not picking up the storms near machili eventhough its within 500 km

    kar now we have see storms north of us as all rains are going to come from there. Its like pop near bangalore

    Pradeep John this time we have to see all storms in N, NW

  19. One tiny popup storm near Cuddapah 🙂 Hope it’s the next band. There’ll be either more popups around it or this one will dissipate

      • IMD NEW DELHI analysis

        Meteorological analysis based on 0830 hrs IST

        Axis of Monsoon trough runs close to foothills of Himalayas.

        A vortex lies off north Kerala coast.

        The trough in lower levels from Sub­Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to westcentral Bay of Bengal with
        embedded cyclonic circulation over westcentral Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood extending upto 4.5 km
        above mean sea level persists. Under its influence a low pressure area would form during next 24 hours.

        Will the vortex off north Kerala coast oppose the UAC or weaken it ?

    • Meteorological Analysis based on 1430 hours IST
      ♦ The axis of monsoon trough continue to run close to foothills of Himalayas.
      ♦  The trough in lower levels  from Sub­Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to westcentral  Bay of Bengal with
      embedded cyclonic circulation over westcentral Bay of Bengal  and neighbourhood extending upto 4.5 km
      above mean sea level persists. Under its influence a low pressure area would form during next 24 hours. 
      ♦  The vortex along off north Kerala coast has merged with the off shore trough running from coastal
      Karnataka to Kerala coast

      @ SUSA

      Will this vortex strengthen the UAC or LPA or weaken it ?

    • IMD RAINFALL WARNING:

      07September:   Heavy   to  very heavy  rainfall would occur  at  isolated  places  over Sub­Himalayan West
      Bengal & Sikkim.  Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over northeast Bihar, Assam & Meghalaya,
      coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu and Kerala.
      08 September: Heavy  to very heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Sub­Himalayan West Bengal
      &   Sikkim.   Heavy   rainfall   would   occur   at   isolated   places   over   north   Bihar,   coastal   Andhra   Pradesh,
      Rayalaseema, coastal & south interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamilnadu and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
      09 September: Heavy  to very heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over north Bihar. Heavy rainfall
      would occur at isolated places over Sub­Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,
      Kerala, Tamilnadu and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

  20. The vortex along off north Kerala coast has merged with the off shore trough running from coastal
    Karnataka to Kerala coast

    @ SUSA

    Will this vortex strengthen the UAC or LPA or weaken it ?

      • INDIAN WEATHERMAN UPDATE :

        S,central Peninsula rainfall forecast !
        From now till tomorrow evening, Heavy rain expected for W-Ghats Kerala, S Karnataka, N,N-E,central,central-coast Tamilnadu.
        Before Sunday noon, moderate rain possible for N Karnataka, N,N-E,central Andhra, #Chennai and #Bangalore.
        Before tomorrow evening Heavy to Very heavy rain forecast for Nilgiris district of Tamilnadu and adjoining zones of W Ghats Kerala.
        Heavy rains for Nilgiris zone to continue till Monday noon!

        From Sunday noon till Monday noon, HEAVY rain for N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai, S,central,W Andhra. Moderate rain for Hyderabad as well !
        Heavy rain expected for central,W Karnataka, scattered for Karnataka coast from Sunday evening till Monday noon.
        HEAVY rainfall alert for Karnataka’s Davangere zone before Monday evening from noon of 8-Sep.
        Before noon of 9-Sep, some showers are expected to push into S,S-W Maharastra as well.

        Heavy rains expected over S,S-W,W Maharastra from evening of Monday !
        Scattered rain to continue over central,S,W Andhra, N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai, N,W,central Karnataka from evening, 9-Sep to morning,10-Sep

  21. INDIAN WEATHERMAN UPDATE:

    Low level circulation popped along Odisha, N-E Andhra coast
    12:30pm, Showers seen along central Andhra coast, scattered Heavy rain over Kerala, Karnataka coast and Odisha.. ow.ly/i/35qjf

    As expected, Today a low level circulation has popped along Odisha coast over N-W Bay … http://ow.ly/i/35qun

    Another weak low level circulation seen along S Bangaldesh, S Bengal … http://ow.ly/i/35qun
    The mid level circulation of Odisha coast circulation is seen over W-central Bay and upper level 500hpa is seen over S-central Bay.

    During next 36hrs, the low,mid level circulation is expected to drift to S Andhra coast, #Chennai … http://ow.ly/i/35qyz
    Meanwhile, the upper level circulation is expected along central-coast,central,N Tamilnadu coast… http://ow.ly/i/35qAe

    To signal the Monsoon withdrawal from N,N-W India, in 24hrs a low,mid level anti cyclone is expected N-central India http://ow.ly/i/35qCz
    GFS models suggest a long entrenched (till 13-Sep) low,mid level circulation expected along S Andhra coast, #Chennai http://ow.ly/i/35qFc

    Going by model predictions, almost 100% chance of WET next 5 days for #Chennai, S,central Andhra, N-W,N,N-E Tamilnadu, S,W,central Karnataka

  22. @ SUSA

    What about the predictions given by INDIAN WEATHERMAN website. ?

    Is it the same as Vagaries or some other different site ?

    From Which year or which cyclone do you have images ?

  23. 9.30pm tonight– Interesting times for both rain status- Chennai Vs Pondy and Joko Vs Wawrinka?Both are interestingly poised and could either way!

  24. Dear Kea bloggers, We are all tired tracking the huge cloud mass in sea. Eventhough we know its not going to give us anything as the wind is from N and NW.

    Everyone can go to sleep and be awake at 3.00 am. when the actual rains may start with heavy spells in morning after 8.00 am

  25. Rame / Vela– talking about 3 to 4 days vigil,u need to get acclimatized to these rudimentary steps as NEM sometimes can spring USVs ( Ulagum Sutrum Valibans) who will sprout near Sumatra Coast and traverse 3000kms and end up at Myanmar..but the entire journey over 8-10days will be constantly watched and commented by us – 24 hrs a day over those 10 days!

  26. @Rame– Ganesh Chathurthi is on Monday and 30 hrs away..lets keep up the discussion on the upcoming rains!( and some tennis if Ehsan allows?)

  27. Don’t lose hope people! Just be patient as Kar,PJ,Karthik Storm and many others say! I’m sure we’ll get a minimum of 100 mm from this system!!

  28. PJ,
    1) I haven’t following any forecast models, just i am following the members / bloggers ideas, thats it.

    2) Storms r not merging together – storms from the sea moves upward direction – Need Clarification really its moving upwards or the direction is correct ?

    3) Stroms in Land side moving to south east direction, Stroms in sea is moving south / south west direction – I am not able to get clear point – How its moving ?

    Please clarify…

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