508 thoughts on “Another warm and dry day ahead

    • Bloodbath happening there for Rupee and Sensex. I am not sure if it is going to end any time soon. Expect Fuel prices to be increased by atleast Rs.5/- per litre once the monsoon session ends by 6th September.

  1. SWM is weak, that is why there is a circulation formed over Gulf of Mannar. This wind pattern has got disconnected with trough over north.

    The flow from Indian Ocean is disconnected the wind towards North.

    • Good analysis Partha sir! But I don’t think there is a circulation there right now seeing the sat image.

      • I think there is a weak circulation SE of Lanka, but it’ll mostly dissipate. If it survives, we’ll have NEM-like rain!

      • no, it is not going to strengthen, this will sustain as weak circulation and mover towards Arabian Sea, from 31st south kerala will get heavy rains again.

        Check my yesterday night prediction around 9.00PM

  2. @PJ

    Thanks for providing Kar with Nungambakkam data!! Hope he gets the 1980-2012 averages soon.

    Btw, one request Dataman!! If possible, can you find out what’s Chennai’s highest rainfall in 1 hour?? Thanks!

  3. Kea,

    Its a risky topic, it may go wrong

    The UAC has descended to MSL and is a LPA now and extends up to 5 kms in height. (see 700 hpa). It will continue to do so, while it travels in land westwards. As of today, the trough from the LPA is strong enough and extending Till Chennai. Mostly North Chennai.

    Pulicat has the brightest chance of Heavy TS

    We will get rains today night / late evening

    Good CAPE is also available along Chennai Coast.


      • @KEA.

        I have sent one mail to SVELUYADHAM regarding my problem of not able to post the messages after 10:03 pm yesterday night.
        What was the problem about ? Is it rights issue ? or SPAM moderation since i replied to the old person ….Is that issue solved..?

      • Close your eyes – forget radar, forget Insat, forget all those models. Predict hot day at around 35C with min around 27C. 95% accuracy rate throughout the year ūüėÄ

  4. Maddy,

    You are right, the TN is going to get good rain but is due to wind discontinuity and not because of trough from the low, because the trough is weak beyond chennai

    But Interior TN good chance of Mega TS

  5. @PJ

    We have one major problem ūüė¶ SWM flow is very weak, so storms are failing to move, so I think it’ll be tough for coastal areas to get rains. It all depends on SWM flow. Let’s see what happens

  6. The chief amounts of
    rainfall (2 cm or more) recorded at 
    1730 hours IST of yesterday are: 

    Pendra and Haldia­7 each; Balasore, Digha and
    Uluberia­5  each; Rewa, Allahabad, Bilaspur and Diamond Harbour­4 each; Dehradun and Sidhi­3 each and
    Jamshedpur,  Pantnagar, Jammu, Varanasi, Satna, Kolkata, Midnapore, Paradip and Puri­2 each

  7. @madhav i was about to post the same coastal areas won’t get any rain at least for the next 3-4 days the topic is relevant. good news is from now on interiors will get some rain. which is much needed in places like salem dharmapuri, krishnakiri and tiruvannamalai districts.

  8. @KEA.

    I have sent one mail to SVELUYADHAM regarding my problem of not able to post the messages after 10:03 pm yesterday night.
    What was the problem about ? Is it rights issue ? or SPAM moderation since i replied to the old person ….Is that issue solved..?

  9. Ashwinds–Hot weather makes the human body sweat to cool itself off. It is called evaporative cooling…So there is a clear benefit resulting from Madras heat. So enjoy yourself here rather than Hyd.

    • novaknole – i have seen that argument made before. I have also heard the other argument – that much loss of fluid is not good for the body. In any case, the fact is most people used to one cant adjust to the other. In my case, I sweat easily – even in Hyd – its not as much a factor. But the low 25-30C is what makes it pleasant.

      • Somehow when its hot and dry, i think of you only..Hence that post of mine today morning…Im aware that i ve posted the same some time back too.

  10. Calcutta rains till 8.30 am today.



    1. HALDIA- 122.1
    2. KRISHNAGAR – 115.2
    3. CONTAI – 108.2
    4. DIAMOND H – 94.5
    5. BURDWAN – 55.6
    6. DIGHA – 53.9
    7. ALIPUR – 49.2
    8. SRINEKETAN – 46.5
    9. BANKURA – 35.2
    10. MEDNIPUR – 33.8
    11. DUM DUM – 33.2

    Courtesy- Santhosh.

  11. The sun looks bright in the past one week..but it isnt really hot…just 34-35…thats typical late august-september…..My room isnt getting hot at all…all thru the March to early August….my room was getting very hot when the temperatures shot up to more than 36

  12. Srikanth gaaru,

    If september is excess there is 30% chance of deficent monsoon,50%chance of Normal monsoon,20% chance of an excess monsoon ….70-30 in NEM’s favour…Hope september is excess this year too ..over 180mm!

  13. The low pressure area over coastal areas of 
    Bangladesh and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal 
    & north Bay of Bengal now lies over Gangetic
    West Bengal and adjoining southeast Jharkhand & 
    north Odisha with an upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels tilting 
    southwestwards with height.

  14. Coming up with all these conclusions and various possibilities, I don’t think September can be related with NEM. If you say there is 20% chance for x, 30% chance of y and all that, you can’t come to a proper conclusion at all!

  15. 2005 August – 56 mm
    2005 September – 98 mm
    2005 NEM – everyone knows!!

    But then!!

    2011 August – 369 mm
    2011 September – 287 mm
    2011 NEM :-
    Tambaram – 998 mm
    Meenambakkam – 989 mm
    Nungambakkam – 852 mm

    • Yeah, looks like we can’t see much of pattern here. In 2005, august and september was poor but NEM was great.

      In 2011, September and August was pretty excess yet the year ended with a positive deviation of 31 % including a good NEM.

      • I have given the pattern in my analysis, if both August & September are excess 2 out of 3 years the NEM in that year has been deficient. This is from the data which you had put up Kar

      • Okay. I just saw the data starting year 2000 for Chennai and the same pattern has worked in FAVOUR OF NEM 2 out of 3 times.

        In %

        August- 4 %
        September- 9%
        NEM- 4%

        August- 24%
        September- 27%
        NEM- (-) 27%(Deficient)

        August- 174%
        September- 117%
        NEM- 34%

        So 2 out of 3 times NEM has been normal/excess when both August and September have had excess. The pattern runs cold here.

        The only true thing that can be said is that NEM is unpredictable.

  16. Rupee at 68?! what a horrendous start to the day..time to look out for stimulating news..as there are no rains,need to look at other avenues..to start with 1. a cloudy start to the day rather than the sunny,blistering assault 2.Fedex played a vintage game yday in the 1st round 3.Saina played a beauty in IBL yday night 4.NEM is around the corner..request others to add other +ve things

      • @KEA.

        I have sent one mail to SVELUYADHAM regarding my problem of not able to post the messages after 10:03 pm yesterday night.
        What was the problem about ? Is it rights issue ? or SPAM moderation since i replied to the restricted person ….Is that issue solved..?

        Pls respond.

        If you don’t mind can u pls give me ur email-id so that i can communicate with you i case of any issues.

    Illuppur (Pudukkottai Dist) 8, Madurai south (Madurai Dist) 7, Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist) 6, Perambalur (Perambalur Dist), Viralimalai (Pudukkottai Dist) 5 each, Kadavur (Karur Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist) 4 each, Chittampatti (Madurai Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist), Upper anaicut (Trichy Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist) 3 each, Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar Dist), Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Thammampatty (Salem Dist), Ketti (Nilgiris Dist), Venbavur (PerambalurDist) 2 each, G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Ariyalur (Ariyalur Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar Dist), Penucondapuram (Krishnagiri Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist) 1 each.

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      Then, post the pictures/videos there and share the link!

      If you have any queries, just post here!

  18. The chief amounts of rainfall (5 cm or more) 
    recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: 

    Moradabad­14; Haldia­12;
    Contai and Krishnanagar­11 each; Diamond Harbour, Bareilly and Jamshedpur­9 each; Pendra­8; Hardoi and
    Katra­7   each;   Madurai,   Mana,   Raipur,   Nowgong,   Bardwan   and   Balasore­6   each;   Shantiniketan,   Jammu,
    Bhagalpur, Digha, Kolkatta(Alipore), Puri, Cherrapunji, Itanagar, Sidhi, Bilaspur, Baripada and Orai­ 5 each.


    The low pressure area over Gangetic 
    West Bengal and adjoining southeast Jharkhand &
    north Odisha now lies over Jharkhand and neighbourhood.
    Associated an upper air cyclonic
    circulation  extending upto mid­tropospheric levels tilting southwestwards with height. 

  20. Latest update on the UAC..Courtesy- Vagaries.

    BB-11 has moved due West towards Jharkhand and weakened to 1002 mb. The UAC associated with it is towards the SW, and corresponding precipitation in the W/SW of UAC region in East MP, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh and East Vidharbh.

    Parts of South Bengal and Orissa got good rainfall.
    Kolkata and Southern W.Bengal got good rains as predicted. Prominent rains in mms:
    Mainaguri ARG 115, NH31 Bridge 98, Numaligarh 94, Goalpara CWC 89, Nalbari (Barkhetri AWS) & Sevoke 86 each, Sagar Island AWS 84, Itanagar 78, Kolkata AP 71,

    Even our “spot” city forecast on Hardoi was good with 70 mms, Bareilly 12 mms.. Other nearby places got :Domeriaganj 124, Bansi CWC 118.

    As the system moves West, the trough along the East coast shifts a bit and slants NW/SE. Precipitation increases in Vidarbha and MP. Rains increase in interior TN today, and Chennai gets Thunder showers by tomorrow as predicted.

  21. Since we are expecting the first showers in almost a week,thought of posting my views on the current issue of rate cards for our Auto Guys..

    Chennai (Madras) Auto guys have been offered the best rates in the entire country..Still,their attitude and sheer laziness will prevent them from not obeying the fare structure provided by the Hon.CM…They will talk about petrol prices, Indian Rupee against US Dollar, Road Quality, Money lenders issue, Empty return savaari issue, Maintenance costs, Cost of living, Share Auto problems, Too much heat in Chennai (Ashwinds, kindly note..I have addressed your issue), Health and education costs, Roger getting old and Kea being not happy about it , Kar not being able to give data about Nunga area etc as though their counter parts in other places like Blore, Kerala, Bombay etc do not have any of the said issues or problems and only the smart auto guys of Tamil Nadu have these issues…Even a strong TMT rod can be bent..Not our great Auto guys attitude and mind set..Lets see that it does not become an eye wash after all..We had one in 2007 last..Not an inch moved..Hope for the best.

  22. In radar Picture clearly visible red spot on Cuddalore,Pondy,Villupuram district going to get battered ,Tindivanam, chengalpattu.Any chance of rain for chennai .Please answer .What happens last 5 days no rain when will rain start.


    Illuppur (Pudukkottai Dist) 8, Madurai South (Madurai Dist) 7, Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist) 6, Perambalur , Viralimalai (Pudukkottai Dist) 5 each, Kadavur (Karur Dist), Pudukottai 4 each, Chittampatti (Madurai Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist), Upper anaicut (Trichy Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist) 3 each, Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar Dist), Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Thammampatty (Salem Dist), Ketti (Nilgiris Dist), Venbavur (Perambalur Dist) 2 each and Gudalur Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Ariyalur, Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar Dist), Penucondapuram (Krishnagiri Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist) and Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist) 1 each.


    Adilabad (dist Adilabad) 5, Adilabad(a) (dist Adilabad) 4, Jagtial(a) (dist Karimnagar) 3, Nandyal (dist Kurnool) 2, Yellandu (dist Khammam) 2, Koida (dist Khammam) 2, Hanamkonda (dist Warangal) 2, Madhira (dist Khammam) 1, Warangal(a) (dist Warangal) 1, Mahbubabad (dist Warangal) 1, Kunavaram (dist Khammam) 1, Asifabad (dist Adilabad) 1, Sirpur (dist Adilabad) 1.


    Mangalore AP, Kota (Udupi dt), Manvi (Raichur dt) 2 each; Mangalore (Dakshina Kannada dt), Shirali, Honavar, Karwar, Gokarna, Kumta, Castle Rock, Joida (all Uttara Kannada dt), Byadgi, Haunsbhavi, Haunsbhavi ARG (all Haveri dt), Zalki, Devarhippargi (both Bijapur dt), Nelogi (Gulbarga dt), Deodurg, Jalahalli (both Raichur dt), Agumbe, Sravanabelagola (Hassan dt), B Durga (Chitradurga dt) 1 each.


    Isolated heavy rain may occur over ghat areas of South interior Karnataka and the hill ranges of Nilgiri’s district during the next 48 hours


    Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at many places over all the districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

    Isolated heavy rain may occur over hill ranges of Nilgiri’s districts during the next 48 hours.

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