682 thoughts on “Drier days ahead.

  1. No way jupi! A round of convective thunderstorms is waiting round the corner. Who trusts models during SWM?!?!?

  2. A few showers possible this week.

    With conditions becoming favourable for convective thunderstorms, a few showers are possible this week.

  3. The  chief  amounts  of  rainfall  (3  cm  or more)
    recorded at 1730 hours IST of  today are: 

    Sagar­13, Haldia­5, Titlagarh, Kailashar, Kolkatta(ALP), 
    Canning and Diamond Harbour­4 each and Agumbe, Digha, 
    Jamshedpur, Baripada, Balasore, Guna and Rajgarh­3 each

  4. The  well marked low pressure area now lies over 
    Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining areas of Odisha & Jharkhand with
    associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto  mid­tropospheric levels persists. It may concentrate into a depression
    during next 24 hours.

  5. Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days from 22nd August to 26th August, 2013

    Rain/thundershower would occur at many places
    over central India, western Himalayan  region  and
    eastern & northeastern states.

    Rain/thundershower would occur at a few places over 
    remaining parts of the country outside peninsular
    India, Gujarat and west Rajasthan where it  would be isolated.

  6. Here is the text of Rajesh Sir’s report on the question of SWM withdrawal…Courtesy Vagaries..

    Note on Withdrawal of SWM this Year:

    Several models are recently showing absolute dry and “no precipitation” conditions in major parts of Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan.
    And, consequently, I have received several queries on this forecast, such as “is it an early withdrawal of the SWM “?
    Does it necessarily mean or indicate a monsoon retreat ?

    Let us first study , and understand for ourselves what actually are the parameters and conditions for SWM withdrawal. On monitoring, and following these, we can ourselves decipher and judge whether it is a withdrawal.

    Parameters for withdrawal from Pakistan and Rajasthan region:

    -1. Let us initially keep a watch on the 200 hp jet streams. During the monsoon , they are Easterlies approximately below the 30N line.This is the Southern periphery of an anticyclone at 200 hp, with the core between 30N and 35N at 150 hp. Peak winds at core exceed 100 knots. Westerlies are to the North of the Himalayas.
    Now, when the withdrawal process starts, we may see a deviation, gradually from the Northern regions. The anticyclone in the Northern most regions vanishes, and westerlies start taking over below the 35N.
    -2. A trough, in the westerlies, in the Afghanistan/ North Kashmir region, would mean the movements of WDs in the upper atmospheres. The frequent movements of these troughs and WDs would hasten a withdrawal.
    -3. High temperatures prevail over Tibet till August End. This normally provides the ascent for the Hadley Cell. Falling temperatures over Tibet weaken the Heat source for the Hadley Cell.
    -4. The Seasonal Low starts weakening with the formation of a high pressure in the Pakistan /Rajasthan region at the 850 hp level, or below. This would start “crippling” the axis, and its strengthening would regulate how fast the axis moves Southwards. The Southward moving axis, shifts and takes the upper limit of the Monsoon southwards with it.
    As the axis reaches Karnataka and TN, the NEM conditions like wind and humidity get established So, a direct link between SWM withdrawal and NEM setting.
    -5. Relative Humidity reduction is observed in the NW parts of India. As the winds change direction, we see reduction in SW winds in the NW regions, thus reducing Humidity.
    -6. UTH shows a marked and steady reduction.

    Now, where are we placed this year as on 18th August ?

    Currently, we do not see any of these parameters showing a withdrawal signs.
    AN UAC/Low will be tracking thru Central India next few days. I would rule out any indication or parameter of withdrawal revival till the life span of this system.

    Possibly, this system may push in extreme Coastal and Eastern Sindh region around 24th/25th August.Rainfall. whatever amounts, is possible from Central India thru N/NW India from this system from 20th August-24th August. Good rainfall possible next 2 days in Northern Pakistan.
    In fact, Northern India can get more rains for a couple of days after 30th August. (This is not a detailed Forecast report, but just a hint that withdrawal is not immediate).

  7. Words of praise to Kea bloggers from Rajesh Sir of Vagaries. Here is the text sent to me.

    Thanks Shiva. I dont mind sharing my experience and information. Kea Bloggers are very well versed and experts, and will in fact tell us a thing or two.
    Withdrawal ? Lets see how it progresses . Yes, i remember your mentioning the withdrawal topic earlier..

  8. The deadliest snowstorm in recorded history occurred in Iran in 1972

    The week long blizzard in Iran in 1972 killed 4,000 people. Over the week 10 feet of snow accumulated all across the northwestern, central, and southern parts of Iran. Southern Iran accumulated up to 26 feet of snow in some places.

    There were no survivors in the villages of Kakkan and Kumar. Sheklab’s 100 villages were buried. It remains the deadliest blizzard in history. People are probably shocked to hear that it snows in the Middle East, but surprise; it does. Most Middle Eastern countries lie within the same temperate zone that the U.S. does. So, it only makes sense that it could and would snow there, too.

    According to Associated Press reports, some rescue workers who’d been dropped on a snow drift burying a village called Sheklab dug for two days straight, burrowing through 8 feet of snow, only to find 18 frozen bodies and no one—not one single person in a population of 100—still alive.

    Another blizzard started up again on February 11, forcing rescue workers to abandon their searches. Army helicopters left two tons of bread and dates scattered over the snowdrifts, in hopes that some people could tunnel their way to the surface, but many never did.

    The second deadliest blizzard on record tore through Afghanistan in 2008, bringing -30 degree temperatures and killing an estimated 926 people.

  9. @sksvram, maddy

    My support is for the depression team as cyclones are bound for heavy damages and not widespread rainfall

  10. Large CAPE in areas a bit south of Chennai and around and might turn out to be extreme in some localized areas!

  11. If you are in the north east USA, you’ll have regular spells of rain from systems that move across USA and Canada which produce fronts and violent thunderstorms. You are more likely to get prolonged spells of light/mod rain like the bands of the LPA which affected us last week. You also do get some severe thunderstorms every year, a decent number number of them, but they really are dangerous!

  12. Kolkata(Alipore) ARG records 88 mm! It’s getting pounded currently, a very heavy spell now for south kolkata. Got over at Dumdum

  13. @novak

    Oh yeah! I forgot to charge my mobile,I’ll charge it now. justg post ur number here, I’ll call or msg!

  14. Temp already at 31 😮 It’s gonna be a scorcher! Don’t be surprised to see thunderstorms. Conditions will be clear in another 2-3 hours

  15. Alipore whoch got 59.2 mm yesterday has recorded around 9-10 cm today! Alipore ARG is also malfunctioning. Dumdum got 38 mm yesterday. Might be around 6 cm today

  16. Convective activity frequency has increased over the past few years and with september coming, we’ll start to have popups and thunderstorm formations near thiruvallur itself!

  17. @novak

    I forgot to charge that day 😛 srry about that. But I’ve put it to charge now, I’ll call/msg you in a few mins

  18. Susa- Did you go through Rajesh Sir report on SWM withdrawal?? I had posted it yesterday night..Very informative..He has words of praise for Kea bloggers too..Scroll down and read the text..Lot to learn from the report.

  19. sent the msg to both no.s

    btw, when’s the next bloggers meet? I missed the first one as I was in USA 😦

  20. @Sudharsan,

    It is scheduled to happen first week of October after the holidays. But some bloggers want it earlier.

    Maybe we could have it after the rain gauge of Kar arrives. I don’t think we need to do much planning for it.

    • oh, ok. Any plans on place? we can have it next month itself, last week. If possible, earlier, but the thing is everyone should be free!

    • Kea– Have it in the month end..Padi-Srikant too wants to give a demo about making a simple RG..i mean this month end..Will have a another one during NEM. We should be meeting once in 75 days..At least.

  21. kar said he’s going to tirupattur soon. maybe this weekend. with september looming large, it’s gonna be a good drive

    • Interest in weather study has been there right from my days of Bombay..Like every body here in this blog, im also a big Rain lover and there is no joy like seeing nature bless us with showers every now and then..Been observing sat maps, radar etc for the last four years or so..Only through FB, i came to know about Kea weather..Thank God, better late than never..

  22. Kea- i honestly think that much of planning is required for a general meet up..In the first meet 12 bloggers were there..it was a fun filled one..Im expecting few more for sure this time around..Should be meeting at least to know each other ..

  23. Had a wonderful time talking with novak! Came to know lots more.

    btw, I’ll get the figures for oct 2005 in a min

  24. October 25th 2005 rainfall
    Nungambakkam – 116
    Meenambakkam – 27

    This was overnight rainfall caused by tstorms and ended at around 6 am. No rain later that day. There was overnight rainfall of 20 mm again next day, and no rain. By 11 pm, the spell started with 10 mm more that day. Then, the historic 423 mm day

  25. Partha sir…y no rain for the past few days? Mazhai eppo varum?

    Jupi..Jon will like your topic very much.. 😛

    Have this as the next topic to please Jon… “Rains have become rare as the wettest SWM month comes to an end and the driest SWM month is about to start” :mrgreen:

  26. believe it or not, vazhapadi with 2 cm tops the list for Tamil Nadu today. No wonder the daily rainfall report has come out so early!

  27. Forbes highest earning athlete

    1. Tiger Woods ($78.1 million or 500 crores in our money)
    2. RF ($71.5 million, imagine what this will be if he starts winning)
    3. Kobe Bryant ($61.9 million playing basketball)

    our very own Novaknole is in 28th place and fastest man in the planet at 40th.

    surprisingly MSD is in 16th place with all the IPL money.

  28. Beckham earns more than my favourite player CR7, and both of them donate a lot unlike messi who was caught for not paying tax!

  29. Sri Aurobindo’s message to our nation through All India Radion on 15 AUG 1947

    “‘…India is free, but she has not achieved unity, only a fissured and broken freedom… The whole communal division into Hindu and Muslim seems to have hardened into the figure of a permanent political division of the country. It is to be hoped that the Congress and the Nation will not accept the settled fact as for ever settled, or as anything more than a temporary expedient…”’ Sri Aurobindo, 15.8.1947.

    இந்திய அரசியல் சுதந்திரம் என்பது தாற்காலிகமானதுதான்.
    முஸ்லீம் பிரிவினையால் நாடு பிரிந்து துண்டாகி இருப்பது
    என்பது வருந்தத்தக்கது;
    பாகிஸ்தான் -பாரதம் என்று
    பிரிந்து இருக்கும் வரை
    நம் நாட்டில் அமைதியெ இருக்காது;
    பல சிக்கல்களே நிலவும்;
    எனவே பிரிந்த பகுதிகள்
    மீண்டும் ஒன்றிணைந்தாலே பூரண சுதந்திரம்
    கிடைத்திருப்பதாக சொல்ல முடியும்
    என்றே ஸ்ரீஅரவிந்தர் வலியுறுத்துகிறார்.

    reference: Sri Auribindo on Nationalism

  30. @rame

    It’s very difficult to tell now, but there needs to be more heating and these clouds won’t give rain. It’s those fluffy cumulus or altocumulus castellanus which need to grow VERTICALLY to give rain. Only vertical clouds can give rain and they develop from cumulus, so watch out for big cumulus clouds which are towering!

    • When can we expect some decent rainfall period in the current SWM season ?( after August end or at the start of September)

      • rain is possible every day. During SWM, we can only predict for next 1-2 days, so we can’t really say anything about those days, but september is a very wet month all over tamil nadu, the wettest in SWM. Good rain can be expected from late august till early october, but not everyday of course

  31. @rame

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm

    The above link is the link for radar

    You can choose the available cities in the list and the products. Some useful products:


    This is the standard radar image. The values from 30-35 dbz give light drizzles/light rain. 35-41 give moderate rain. 41-44 dbz gives heavy rain. 45-50 gives very heavy rain and above 50 dbz is a severe storm. You can see the dbz values with the colours.
    ——————————————————-


    This is the same thing, but for a longer range. I prefer the caz_chn max -z product though.
    ——————————————————-


    This radar image is a close range one showing rainfall rates in the storms. Heavy rain is light blue-orange. Above orange and red is very heavy rain.
    ——————————————————-


    The next one is precipitation accumulation. This shows an estimate of how much rain fell in areas from 8:30 am on one day to the next day. It is updated at around 9 am everyday. All other products update every 10 minutes.

    MDS at the centre of the image is Parry’s corner

  32. Donating and not paying taxes are 2 completely different things.

    Did you know Lionel has established the Leo Messi foundation plus he is the goodwill ambassador for UNICEF. All sportspersons finances are managed by somebody else. In this case it was his father.

    Many sportspersons evade taxes by taking up citizenship in Monte Carlo. Novaknole listening?

  33. @rame

    Search in google images for cumulus clouds.

    http://www.google.co.in/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1360&bih=610&q=cumulus+castellanus&oq=cumulus+castellanus&gs_l=img.3…971.971.0.1148.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0..0.0….0…1ac.1.25.img..1.0.0.y1WiTCvPK-Q

    These clouds are a good indicator of rain later in the day.

    http://www.google.co.in/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1360&bih=610&q=cumulus+castellanus&oq=cumulus+castellanus&gs_l=img.3…971.971.0.1148.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0..0.0….0…1ac.1.25.img..1.0.0.y1WiTCvPK-Q#fp=5eadb21071423c57&hl=en&q=cumulonimbus&tbm=isch

    These are examples of severe thunderstorms. Rain will be very heavy with winds and possibility of hail if this storm hits you.

    http://www.google.co.in/search?hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1360&bih=610&q=cumulus+castellanus&oq=cumulus+castellanus&gs_l=img.3…971.971.0.1148.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0..0.0….0…1ac.1.25.img..1.0.0.y1WiTCvPK-Q#fp=7c83934796d3a483&hl=en&q=cumulus+congestus&tbm=isch

    These clouds also give rain, but not very heavy.

  34. @kea

    Donating and not paying tax are totally two different things, but it shows the nature of the player.

  35. @rame

    If you want to change the icon, log in to your account in en.gravatar.com

    Then, choose the option to upload an image. It can be either from your computer or the internet itself. Then, upload the image. Choose the age group it can be visible to and then it’ll appear at the bottom of the page. Click the image and then make it your picture. The effect will take place in 5-10 mins

  36. Karnataka Rainfall

    Kogar – 87
    Nilkund – 82
    Agumbe – 76
    Hulikal – 75
    Yadur – 63
    Mastikatte – 61
    Gersoppa – 53
    Mani – 51
    Kadra – 50
    Baindur – 50
    Siddapura – 50

  37. OMG!! Canning in west bengal recording severe rains!!

    18th – 13 cm
    19th – 19 cm
    20th – 9 cm (so far)

    What a spell!

  38. so far, only chappa and jujupi cumulus clouds around 😦 but 50 km away towards thiruvallur and beyond, towers might be developing. Who knows!

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