226 thoughts on “Isolated shower or two possible during evening

  1. @PJ– On the IAS cadre,you are spot on..I have dealt with some of them and all come across as extremely competent and capable..if not for political intervention,the bureaucracy can take the Country to great heights

  2. Top 10 Tamil Nadu Rainfall from 01.06.13 to 13.07.2013 (SWM)

    in mm

    1. Upper Sholayar, Coimbatore district – 2259
    2. Valparai, Coimbatore district – 1935
    3. Chinna Kallar, Coimbatore district – 1720
    4 Devala, Nilgris district – 1711
    5. Avalanche, Nilgris district – 1628
    6. Upper Bhavani, Nilgris district – 1534
    7. Parsons Valley, Nilgris district – 1486
    8. Porthimund, Nilgris district – 986
    9. Upper Kodayar, Tirunelveli district – 930
    10.Naduvattam, Nilgris district – 760

  3. Novak, so the 1 wich i posted shld b wrong?? … But tis mexico rainfall record has one extraordinary fact unlike others but i dnt get it now…actually i read tat in one article tat dealt wit atlantic hurricanes….

    • Sel..i was looking for your Mexico record rain and found the interesting link thru Wiki..Hence posted that link.Honestly no idea about the record Mexico Rains. Have to chk again the rain data.

  4. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm or more) recorded at 0830 hours IST of   today are:

    Bramhapuri­ 20; 
    Surat­18; 
    Wardha­13;
    Agumbe, Dahanu and Bhira­12 each; 
    Mumbai(SCZ) and Deesa­11 each;
    Mahabaleshwar­10; 
    Batul­9; 
    Meerut, Bhavnagar, Porbandar and Osmanabad­ 8 each; 
    Nahan and Goa(Panjim)­ 7 each; 
    Ahmadabad, Mahuva, Amrali, Idar, Gandhinagar, Bulsar and Goa (Dabolim)­6 each; 
    Mount Abu, Sholapur,Ratlam,   Mumbai(Colaba),   Alibag,   Chandrapur,   Narsingpur,   Cherrapunji,   Basirghat,   Mangalore,   Karwar   and
    Madikeri­5 each 
    and
    Rajkot, Rajgarh, Amraoti, Kozhikode, Honavar, Cannur, Valparai and Shirali­4 each.

  5. Alert from IMD

    An upper air cyclonic circulation would form over northwest Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours.

  6. England lead by 306 with 2 wickets remaining.

    The only way Aussies can cause an upset here is if Agar hits a century. That’s the only way he can get another test for Australia.

  7. IMD’s improved forecast:

    ♦13th July:

    Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over east 
    Rajasthan and Gujarat state. Heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over west Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, coastal Karnataka and
    Kerala.

    ♦14th July:
     Heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

    ♦  15th July:

    Heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

  8. Rainfall at 8.30 hrs

    Cities Rain Season TOT Deviation
    Ahmedabad 59.2 352.4 139.5
    Mumbai (SCZ) 107.8 1309.9 433.7
    Mumbai (CLB) 49.2 1267.9 374.9
    Goa(Panjim) 72.9 1423.4 138.0

  9. Gujarat IMD:

    CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN CMS ARE:-
    GUJARAT REGION:
    Hansot (dist Broach) 22, Olpad (dist Surat) 19, Surat City (dist Surat) 18, Daman (dist Daman) 15, Bharuch (dist Broach) 15, Pardi (dist Valsad) 15, Choryasi (dist Surat) 14, Mahesana (dist Mehsana) 14, Ankleshwer (dist Broach) 13, Satlasana (dist Mehsana) 13, Vadgam (dist Banaskantha) 13, Umergam (dist Valsad) 13, Kamrej (dist Surat) 12, Mangrol (dist Surat) 11, Vijapur (dist Mehsana) 11, Deesa (dist Banaskantha) 11, Mansa (dist Gandhinagar) 10, Palsana (dist Surat) 10, Vapi (dist Valsad) 10, Kadi (dist Mehsana) 9, Dharoi Colony (dist Mehsana) 9, Bodeli (dist Baroda) 9, Vagra (dist Broach) 9, Madhbun (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 9, Tharad (dist Banaskantha) 9, Amirgadh (dist Banaskantha) 8, Detroj (dist Ahmedabad) 8, Kapadvanj (dist Kheda) 8, Sanand (dist Ahmedabad) 7, Vijaynagar (dist Sabarkantha) 7, Kaprada (dist Valsad) 7, Kalol(g) (dist Gandhinagar) 7, Silvassa (dist Dadara & Nagar Haveli) 7, Palanpur (dist Banaskantha) 7, Jhagadia (dist Broach) 7, Bhiloda (dist Sabarkantha) 7, Gandevi (dist Navsari) 7, Bhabhar (dist Banaskantha) 7, Bayad (dist Sabarkantha) 7, Dahegam (dist Gandhinagar) 7, Kheralu (dist Mehsana) 7, Jalalpor (dist Navsari) 6, Dantiwada (dist Banaskantha) 6, Valia (dist Broach) 6, Viramgam (dist Ahmedabad) 6, Meghraj (dist Sabarkantha) 6, Prantij (dist Sabarkantha) 6, Dholka (dist Ahmedabad) 6, Gandhinagar (dist Gandhinagar) 6, Chikhli (dist Navsari) 6, Idar (dist Sabarkantha) 6, Morva Hadaf (dist Panchmahal) 6, Abad City (dist Ahmedabad) 6, Himatanagar (dist Sabarkantha) 6, Valsad (dist Valsad) 6, Sami (dist Patan) 6, Siddhpur (dist Patan) 6, Dhansura (dist Sabarkantha) 5, Radhanpur (dist Patan) 5, Balasinor (dist Kheda) 5, Wav (dist Banaskantha) 5, Devgadh Baria (dist Dahod) 5, Khedbrahma (dist Sabarkantha) 5, Vadnagar (dist Mehsana) 5, Dhanera (dist Banaskantha) 5, Navsari (dist Navsari) 5, Virpur (dist Kheda) 5, Kathalal (dist Kheda) 5, Santalpur (dist Patan) 5, Godhra (dist Panchmahal) 5, Unjha (dist Mehsana) 5, Patan (dist Patan) 5, Dharampur (dist Valsad) 5, Fatepura (dist Dahod) 4, Deodar (dist Banaskantha) 4, Wanakbori (dist Kheda) 4, Vyara (dist Tapi) 4, Modasa (dist Sabarkantha) 4, Garbada (dist Dahod) 4, Mandal (dist Ahmedabad) 4, Mahuva (dist Surat) 4, Bardoli (dist Surat) 4, Danta (dist Banaskantha) 4, Lunawada (dist Panchmahal) 4, Mahemdavad (dist Kheda) 3, Khambhat (dist Anand) 3, Visnagar (dist Mehsana) 3, Amod (dist Broach) 3, Tarapur (dist Anand) 3, Chanasma (dist Patan) 3, Harij (dist Patan) 3, Malpur (dist Sabarkantha) 3, Dascroi (dist Ahmedabad) 3, Vadali (dist Sabarkantha) 3, Sagbara (dist Narmada) 3, Kheda (dist Kheda) 3, Dhanpur (dist Dahod) 3, Vansda (dist Navsari) 3, Jhalod (dist Dahod) 2, Talod (dist Sabarkantha) 2, Kadana (dist Panchmahal) 2, Sinor (dist Baroda) 2, Barvala (dist Ahmedabad) 2, Khanpur (dist Panchmahal) 2, Petlad (dist Anand) 2, Umerpada (dist Surat) 2, Mahudha (dist Kheda) 2, Limkheda (dist Dahod) 2, Jambuser (dist Broach) 2, Ghoghamba (dist Panchmahal) 2, Kankrej (dist Banaskantha) 2, Nanipalson (dist Valsad) 2, Dhandhuka (dist Ahmedabad) 2, Santrampur (dist Panchmahal) 2, Dahod (dist Dahod) 2, Umreth (dist Anand) 2, Sojitra (dist Anand) 2, Dangs (ahwa) (dist Dangs) 2, Ranpur (dist Ahmedabad) 1, Becharaji (dist Mehsana) 1, Matar (dist Kheda) 1, Halol (dist Panchmahal) 1, Nadiad (dist Kheda) 1, Shahera (dist Panchmahal) 1, Chhota Udepur (dist Baroda) 1, Bavla (dist Ahmedabad) 1, Valod (dist Tapi) 1, Savli (dist Baroda) 1

    SAURASHTRA & KUTCH:
    Jamnagar (dist Jamnagar) 29, Khambhalia (dist Jamnagar) 19, Bhanvad (dist Jamnagar) 14, Vanthali (dist Junagarh) 13, Mendarda (dist Junagarh) 13, Manavadar (dist Junagarh) 13, Jamjodhpur (dist Jamnagar) 12, Lodhika (dist Rajkot) 10, Kutiana (dist Porbandar) 10, Dhoraji (dist Rajkot) 10, Talaja (dist Bhavnagar) 9, Ranavav (dist Porbandar) 9, Upleta (dist Rajkot) 9, Kalyanpur (dist Jamnagar) 8, Porbandar (dist Porbandar) 8, Bhavnagar (dist Bhavnagar) 8, Junagadh (dist Junagarh) 8, Umrala (dist Bhavnagar) 7, Vadia (dist Amreli) 7, Jetpur (dist Rajkot) 7, Lalpur (dist Jamnagar) 7, Keshod (dist Junagarh) 7, Jamkandorna (dist Rajkot) 7, Dasada (dist Surendranagar) 7, Mahuva(b) (dist Bhavnagar) 6, Palitana (dist Bhavnagar) 6, Savarkundla (dist Amreli) 6, Amreli (dist Amreli) 6, Lakhtar (dist Surendranagar) 5, Khambha (dist Amreli) 5, Talala (dist Junagarh) 5, Visavadar (dist Junagarh) 5, Bhesan (dist Junagarh) 5, Shihor (dist Bhavnagar) 5, Gariadhar (dist Bhavnagar) 5, Kalavad (dist Jamnagar) 4, Rajkot (dist Rajkot) 4, Vallabhipur (dist Bhavnagar) 4, Lilia (dist Amreli) 4, Rajula (dist Amreli) 3, Chotila (dist Surendranagar) 3, Dwarka (dist Jamnagar) 3, Surendranagar (dist Surendranagar) 3, Gadhda (dist Bhavnagar) 3, Mangrol(j) (dist Junagarh) 3, Lathi (dist Amreli) 3, Jasdan (dist Rajkot) 3, Kodinar (dist Junagarh) 3, Jafrabad (dist Amreli) 2, Dhari (dist Amreli) 2, Paddhari (dist Rajkot) 2, Gondal (dist Rajkot) 2, Kotdasangani (dist Rajkot) 2, Bagasra (dist Amreli) 2, Ghogha (dist Bhavnagar) 2, Dhrol (dist Jamnagar) 2, Babra (dist Amreli) 2, Una (dist Junagarh) 2, Chuda (dist Surendranagar) 2, Limbdi (dist Surendranagar) 2, Veraval (dist Junagarh) 1, Malia (dist Junagarh) 1, Diu (dist Diu) 1, Sutrapada (dist Junagarh) 1, Wadhvan (dist Surendranagar) 1, Tankara (dist Rajkot) 1, Botad (dist Bhavnagar) 1, Halvad (dist Surendranagar) 1, Sayla (dist Surendranagar) 1

  10. FORECAST AND FARMERS’ WEATHER BULLETIN VALID TILL THE MORNING OF 15.07.2013:-

    Moderate to rather heavy rain/thundershowers would occur at many places in all the districts of Gujarat state and in Diu, Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli.
    OUT LOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS: – Decrease in rainfall activity.

    HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING:- Heavy to very heavy rains would occur at isolated places over Gujarat state and in Diu, Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli during next 24 hours.

  11. What a promotion for debutant Agar?
    From 11th to 6 down. Can he bring back Aussies again one more time in this match? He has been Australia’s best batsmen by a long way

  12. kea metsite not updating, chennai radar alone is not working too.

    What a day!! ūüėõ

    Gud chance of TS tomorrow if not enough heating today

  13. IMD MID Day

    Anupper air cyclonic circulation lies over east Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood extending upto 2.1 km above mean sea level. 
    ♦ Another upper air cyclonic circulation lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood  and adjoining  Gangetic West
    Bengal and  Odisha between 3.1 to 5.8 km above mean sea level.

  14. IMD’s New Methodology

    ♦   14th  July: Heavy to  very  heavy  rainfall  would  occur  at  one  or two  places  over Madhya Pradesh  and
    Vidarbha.   Heavy   rainfall   would   occur   at   one   or   two   places   over   Odisha,   Uttarakhand,   east   Rajasthan,
    Chhattisgarh, coastal Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

    ♦   15th  July: Heavy to  very  heavy  rainfall  would  occur  at  one  or two  places  over Madhya Pradesh  and
    Vidarbha.   Heavy   rainfall   would   occur   at   one   or   two   places   over   Odisha,   Uttarakhand,   east   Rajasthan,
    Chhattisgarh, coastal Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

    ♦   16th July: Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over east Rajasthan and west
    Madhya Pradesh. Heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh,
    east Madhya Pradesh,  Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

  15. SST anomaly shows that it is increasing over SW Pacific in the past 1 month.

    That temp is increasing and pressurising SW Pacific as of now.

    It was nearly 26-28C past month now it has increased to 28-30C.

    If this trend continues then SWM will withdraw early and will pave way for early onset NEM.

  16. Strong easterly and westerly winds meeting at Phillipines. Which is creating lots of pressure over that region.

    This is why the SST is increasing and more room for Tropical Stroms in that area.

  17. Jupi,

    Wind anomaly shows that there is an increase in westerly wind in the first 10 days of the month. Which brings dry wind from land of Vietnam & Cambodia.

    This will make the sea over SW pacific hotter, this will bring more evaporation and when that air collides with easterly wind which brings more moisture from east pacific, then TS is much more possible over that region.

    Karthikraghav was saying that we are not analyzing the factor for a system formed or for a heavy rain. Also he was saying that we are analyzing after the event only. I think by now he will look at the forecast based on this analysis.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/pentad200winds.shtml

  18. Partha,

    Just a different opinion, Chennai can expect good TS today, tomorrow till Tuesday as the cape is at max near Chennai. It may be either just north or directly over us or south of us. And the storms from NW are expected.

    (Watchout for tomorrow)

    Further, the UAC is expected to descend as a low near North AP / Oriissa in coming days. Remember last week…Wen there was low there we always get good rains.

    To me good rains till 16th and lots of TS in Chennai till then

      • In simple words, when moisture containing air increases to 500 hpa levels. heat exchange takes places. This releases energy. When the more the energy more the chance of TS.

      • Partha, analyzing with one parameter will not give a clear picture.

        Like our DBZ which many of us are familiar now

        The units of CAPE are J/kg

        > ~ 150 – 300: heavy/intense shower-rainfall with/without thunderstorm – mainly ‘slight’ TS
        > ~ up to 1000: ‘moderate/severe’ thunderstorm
        > ~ up to 2500: ‘severe/intense’ thunderstorm.

        Today CAPE is around 1500-2000 and Tomorrow CAPE near Chennai is over 2500 J/Kg

  19. PJ,

    Lower level winds are not stronger, also it is from SSW, i could not feel any moisture outside. Humidity is very low at 50%.

    I dont think that we will get some TS today.

  20. Partha, i have stopped going by cola or foreca. Just go by charts and other parameters. It says good chance of TS today, tomorrow and day after tomorrow.

    Dont be surprised if it rains today. I know radar is down and many cant predict rains without radars.

  21. Dear All,

    Do you believe this

    In 2005 NEM season, ENSO was -0.5 in October & -0.8 in November. Still the impact was huge.

    In 2006 the ENSO was +1.0.

    In 2011 the ENSO was -1.0.

    In 2012 the ENSO was +0.2 to -0.3.

    In 2005 even though ENSO is in negative phase, it was nearly neutral, hence NEM was strong. The same happened in 2011 too.

    In 2011 december the ENSO was -1.4, that time only we had Thane Cyclone, which saved us from water scarcity.

    In 2012 it was in +0.2C in October and -0.3 in November, which did not bring us normal NEM.

    To summarize we should have ENSO in negative less than -0.5 or more than + 0.5C. If it is between these areas then once again NEM will be a failure in 2013 also.

    • Eactly, absolutely correct, I have been observing this for ages. If the enso is neutral between -0.5 to +0.5 C the NEM fails at times , well observed Partha… ūüėČ

      • Jupi,

        Big drawback is either forecast is not reliable or there is no update on current situation, pertains to ENSO.

        If we have to know that how much temp would be measured in October, then we need to wait till November. By that time we would have experienced whatever happened in october.

        Forecasting and Current Trend has to be updated then and then. Only way we could observe is that, only through SST.

  22. Tamil Nadu:

    Devala (Nilgiris Dist) 5, Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist) 4, Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist) 2 each, Tirumayam (Pudukkottai Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist) 1 each.

  23. The chief amounts of rainfall (3
    cm or more) recorded at 0830 hours IST of  today are: 

    Gondia­16;  Agumbe­9; Jalpaiguri­7;  Mahabaleshwar­6;  Damoh, Sagar,
    Ahmedabad, Bhira and Vengurla­5 each, Nahan, Satna, Bulsar, Mangalore and Kandla­4 each; Dehradun, Pantnagar, Gangtok.
    north Lakhimpur, Jharsuguda, Hirakud, Sambalpur, Hoshangabad, Harnai, Ratnagiri, Goa, Thrissur and Cannur­3 each.

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