472 thoughts on “Another hot week ahead, TS cannot be ruled out.

  1. Pradeep

    Congrats for the special page for you in vagaries.

    List doesn’t have the uttarkand. doen’t receives rainfall more than 500mm?

  2. Guys there are high clouds outside…. what does this mean ???? is this the indication of a low formation ???? i have seen a low wind shear area near to north Sri lanka …. please clarify

  3. Morning HRF update
    1. Hulikal records another 100 mm+ rainfall. The SWM total crosses 1400 mm mark. Many stations reporting good rains in Shimoga and Madekiri districts

    Hulikal to top Karnataka Charts today. Watch out for Agumbe, Kollur, Nilkund, Talacavery, Bhagamandala rainfall figures.

    2. The Sholayar – Valparai – Chinnakallar again got good rainfall. The other wet belt down south Upper Kodayar also was battered.

    Expect rainfall > 60 mm in all these stations

    3. Reports of Heavy Rain in Cherrapunji as per Radar. Jowai and Nongostin has clocked around 70 mm rainfall. Dont be surprised if Cherra clocks over 200 mm.

    4. The Kerala stations to report 70 mm rains on average. Two or three stations already reporting 100 mm rains.

    5. Assam Heavy weights Silchar, Kajalgaon report some meaningful rains after a lull. You can also watch out for Chouldhowaghat.

  4. TN Dams Inflow Update – Seems a very good days for Dams in TN

    Paparnasam crosses 100 ft against full level 143 ft. (Inflow is over 4000 cusecs and stored water is 3100 mcft against full capacity of 5500 mcft)

    Sholayar adds 8 ft in one day and is now at 117 ft against full level 160 ft. (Inflow is over 4200 cusecs and stored water is 2900 mcft against full capacity of 5100 mcft)

    At this rate both dams will be overflowing in 2 weeks.

    Bhavanisagar ~ 4400 cusecs
    Pechiparai and Perunchani ~ 1100 cusecs. Both dam has good storage now. Continuous Rains in Catchment areas.
    Periyar ~ 2300 cusecs and Dam to touch 120 ft today.
    Amaravathy ~ 1000 cusecs

  5. Mass cremation in Kedarnath.. Bodies started decaying…. Social workers out ter along wid the local policemen and military..

  6. Had a drive to south – t’veli, ambai, valliyur, s’koil and back to chennai. Excellent climate and it was drizzling throughout. Did not see sun for past 2 days. Enjoyed a lot.

    • Duration and power[edit]

      This section requires expansion. (June 2013)

      Polar vortex and weather impacts due to stratospheric warming
      Polar cyclones are climatological features which hover near the poles year-round. They are weaker during summer and strongest during winter. When the polar vortex is strong, the Westerlies increase in strength. When the polar cyclone is weak, the general flow pattern across mid-latitudes buckles and significant cold outbreaks occur. Extratropical cyclones which occlude and migrate into higher latitudes create cold-core lows within the polar vortex.[5] Volcanic eruptions in the tropics lead to a stronger polar vortex during the winter for as long as two years afterwards.[6] The strength and position of the cyclone shapes the flow pattern across the hemisphere of its influence. An index which is used in the northern hemisphere to gage its magnitude is the Arctic oscillation.[7]
      The Antarctic polar vortex is more pronounced and persistent than the Arctic one; this is because the distribution of land masses at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere gives rise to Rossby waves which contribute to the breakdown of the vortex, whereas in the southern hemisphere the vortex remains less disturbed. The breakdown of the polar vortex is an extreme event known as a sudden stratospheric warming, here the vortex completely breaks down and an associated warming of 30-50 degrees Celsius over a few days can occur. The Arctic vortex is elongated in shape, with two centres, one normally located over Baffin Island in Canada and the other over northeast Siberia. In rare events, when the general flow pattern is amplified (or meridional), the vortex can push further south as a result of axis interruption, such as during the Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak.[8]

  7. Convection around the low pressure is intensifying and is over land.heavy rains for orrisa and AP.Expected rains for past 2 days for chennai due to this system but it did not happen.Hopefully we get some rain from this system.

  8. Last year v all came thru one article wich is similar to the one u posted… In tat ,they said high pollution causes arb sea cyclones to get stronger n bigger … Now another group saying low pollution will cause strong hurricane..wich one v shld believe??… Funny ppl.

    • Based on that article.. they say that greenhouse gases have increased in the 20th century leading to stronger hurricanes as they trap sunlight and heat the atmosphere and oceans.. At the same time soot and sulphate aerosols absorb sunlight and cool the atmosphere or prevent sunlight from reaching the earth. As a result the decrease in sulphate aerosols has resulted in greater warming and stronger hurricanes.

      very good point.. green house gases like CO2 stays in the atmosphere for almost 80 years.. sulphates for approximately 2 weeks..

  9. Food for thought!!!

    Guys…whenever a low forms in bob during swm, we used to say Chennai will get ts bcoz of moisture pull from west..and that has hpnd a lot of times before..but it wasn’t the case for the past 1 wk with disturbances in bay..whatz d reason??? All v got was heatwaves or overcast skies with very windy days.. 🙄 😉

    Vinodh, Sel, Maddy, Partha sir…. ❓

  10. Dash it will be case when low is south central bay. Now the LPA is near north orissa….so all moisture pull effect will go to Andhra as a through extending from the low. More over the low is very close to land.

    • Poor guy had a knee injury..Thats why he lost..You will hear this statement from Rafa n his fans for ever.Has become an unconditional statement. If he loses, he has got an injury.

  11. Madikeri / wayanad / munnar getting very heavy rains….line of dis-continuity can be seen @ 850 MB in these areas. Expecting huge numbers tomorrow from these regions. Pookot – 154 mm till now. Hulikal – 95 and Nilkund – 75 mm

  12. Dehradun beats 88 year old 24hrs rainfall for June with 220 mm rainfall and betters again with 370 mm rainfall

    The 88 year old Dehradun record of 24hr rainfall in the month of June was broken with 219.9 mm on 16th June 2013. It was record which was to be short lived. The next day (17th June 2013) Dehradun clocked 370.2 mm of heavy rainfall. The previous record was on 22nd June 1925 that Dehradun where it had received 188 mm of rainfall on a single day in the month of June.


  13. Pradeep’s Morning HRF update

    1. Uttrakhand gets Heavy Rain again

    Dehradun crosses 1000 mm for the month and its wettest June ever. Many other stations also record 100 mm+ rains.

    2. Kerala battered again.

    Pookot records 246 mm till 6.30 am and many stations get over 100 mm. Watch out for Vythri’s rainfall figures. Expect it notch above 200 mm

    3. Karnataka was also in the line of Heavy Rains

    Hulikal – 134 and Nilkund – 127 mm till 6.30 am. More than 30 other stations record over 100 mm rains. Cavery catchment also got very heavy rains with Kuruchu in Kodagu recording 298 mm. Watch out for Kollur, Agumbe, Talacavery and Bhagamandala.

    4. Super Rains in Tamil Nadu

    Sholayar records 200 mm. What a year Sholayar is having. It has got nearly 1500 mm for June. Watchout for Valparai and Chinnakallar they can also post over 200 mm

  14. Enjoying a new experience of travelling in a double decker train to Blore now.Except for the smaller seats n less leg room everything else is perfectly ok.Official cum personal visit to the garden city.

  15. Uttarakhand Floods Information
    Uttarkashi: (+91) 1374-226461
    Chamoli: (+91) 1372-251437, 9411352136
    Rudraprayag: (+91) 1364-233727,9412914875
    Control Room (Uttarakhand): (+91) 135-2710334, 9557444486

  16. @Pradeep–as usual,you come out with interesting data on the rainfall amounts..tks..keep it going..when is Chennai going to find a slot in yr list of stations with > 20mm rains?!

  17. @Novak– heard that food in the doubledecker is not as good as shatpadi?I saw the Nadal match..guess his wobbly knee made him very tentative on his backhand..saw him with 15 Unforced Backhand errors + did u see him converting all BH into FH and in the process,messing up a few shots

    • @ Gopal666-what wobbly knee you are talking about? His knee was in great condition 2 weeks back when he was running around the clay dirt..How can it become wobbly in grass all of a sudden ? He always struggles in the first week at Wimbledon and it came as no surprise when a smart cookie by the name of Darcis took advantage of his tentative grass cort play. That’s it. Double decker does not have pantry like Brindavan or Kovai..Its mobile pantry. They board food stuff enroute.Food was decent.

      • The reason for the conversion is cos of the low bounce in the fresh virgin grass at wimbledon. He does not get that looping bounce he gets at RG.He can’t sort of rock back and give it a loop and that too in the first week.Its all about confidence when he steps on to the court.

      • The story is different when he plays at RG. Right from day one to the finals , its the same court conditions. The slowness and the looping bounce suits his style of game to the Tee. Wimbledon is a different kettle of fish al together. Lot of adjustments are required in the first week. His first serve is so fragile n gives the opponent a decent chance to break at will.

  18. Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist) 20,

    Devala (Nilgiris Dist) and Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist) 16 each,

    Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist) 15,

    Gudalur Bazar (Nilgiris Dist) 9,

    Periyar (Theni Dist) 7,

    Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist) 5,

    Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist) and Ketti (Nilgiris Dist) 3 each,

    Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist), Uthagamandalam (Nilgiris Dist) and Pollachi (Coimbatore Dist) 2 each and

    Perambalur (Perambalur Dist), Sendamangalam, Tiruchengode and Kumarapalayam (all Namakkal Dist), Coimbatore AWS and Coimbatore south (both Coimbatore Dist), Kundga bridge, Coonoor pto, Coonoor and Kothagiri (all Nilgiris Dist), Perundurai (Erode Dist), Bhoothapandy and Eraniel (both Kanyakumari Dist), Thenkasi and Shencottah (both Tirunelveli Dist) 1 each.

    • Very less rain seen over most of Bangladesh and over most of N-E states, S,coastal.Tamilnadu, S,S-central Andhra and over S,central Karnataka.
      Excess over Uttarakand, Himachal, coastal Maharastra, Kerala, S,S-E-coastal Gujarat, E.Maharastra, S,S-E.Madhyapradesh and S.Chatisgarh.

  19. Dash was asking why there was no TS when LPA is in NW bay.

    This LPA has triggered westerlies in TN. This was stronger winds. Hence it did allow the sea breeze to set in. There was collision of Cold & Hot air. Hence there was no TS formed.

    Once this LPA moves or weakens we will get usual TS.

    This is what i feel.

  20. The chief amounts of rainfall (4
    cm  or more)  recorded  at   0830  hours IST  of today  are:

    Pantnagar  and  Titlagarh­ 15  each, 
    Dehradun ­12, 
    Tehri ­10, 
    Puri,  Passighat  and Rajnandgaon ­9 each,
    Koraput and Bhira­ 8 each, 
    Nagpur, Mumbai, Mangalore, Gangtok, Golaghat, Mahabaleshwar, Halflong, Chandrapur, Gondia   and   Jorhat­ 7   each,  
    Mumbai(Colaba),   Guwahati,  Cherrapunji, Yeotmal and Palakkod ­6 each, Fursatgunj,   Bhopal,   Ratnagiri, Bhawanipatna and Osmanabad­ 5 each and 
    Sultanpur, Sundernagar, Kozikode, Bramhapuri, Wardha, Tadong, Gopalpur,Gopalpur and Tadong­
    4 each.

  21. extremely hvy rains in vidharbha n southern madya pradesh.. many places have got above 20cm

    til 5.30am today

    nagpur- 186mm
    bhopal- 115mm

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