312 thoughts on “Chance of breaching 40+ still alive

  1. Weak La Nina condition could favour monsoon

    Japanese scientists have clarified that differential impacts of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole are at play as a rampant monsoon pulse runs its course over the landmass.
    Negative Indian Ocean Dipole results from excessive heating of South-East Indian Ocean relative the West, and was feared to interfere with the monsoon this year.

    From past events, we find that this anomaly has a differential impact on the Western and Eastern halves of the country, said Swadhin Behera, team leader, Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at Research Institute for Global Change, Tokyo. The Western half, particularly coastal Maharashtra and Mumbai, usually gets above normal rainfall during negative dipole events.
    Delhi and some of the Northern States also enjoy good rains on seasonal average.

    “There is no statistical relationship established yet but it appears that the negative dipole does not affect monsoon disturbances and the trough on the Western Coast,” Behera wrote to Business Line.
    In addition, a weak La Nina condition in the tropical Pacific is also favourable for the monsoon, he said.

    The Eastern half, particularly North-Eastern States and parts of West Bengal, does suffer from below normal rainfall during negative dipole phases.
    One could see these patterns in the accumulated rainfall anomaly maps for last two weeks put on the India Met department Web site.

    “The country as a whole may not show a severe negative impact at the end of the season (as in last year) and rainfall may be in normal range, which is what Met Department predictions suggest,” he added.

    “However, because of the spatial differences/non-linearity in its impacts, I expect the seasonal distribution of the rainfall would be erratic in both periodicity and intensity of wet and dry spells,” he added. This would mean that excessive wet phases during the monsoon would be matched by drier spells.
    Meanwhile, a former Director-General of Met Department told Business Line that a passing western disturbance interacted with moist easterlies from the Bay of Bengal to push monsoon rapidly into North and North-West India.

    The interaction caused extremely heavy rainfall for two days over Himachal Pradesh and the Garhwal region of Uttrakhand, leading to floods, loss of lives and property.
    The effect of western disturbance over Western Himalayas would get over by Wednesday as the system shifts to the East. So rainfall will decrease over North-West India during the week, the former official said.
    Onset phase has been active this year resulting in above normal so far specially over North-West and central India because of early advance/onset followed by good spell of rain.
    The rain belt is now expected to shift to East and North-East where monsoon has been slightly below normal so far. Increase in rainfall over North-East India will result in well-distributed June rainfall over entire country.
    Monsoon is expected to exhibit intra seasonal variability by entering in to relatively weak phase by weekend.


  2. Sunny right through the stretch from Rajamundry.Just 10% cloud cover. All rivers are full to the brim. Of course AP is always lucky on the river front. They have one too many.

  3. hr649 Sunday forecast looks as if the off shore trough from west coast shifted to east coast. 🙂 and hope that will come true.one more thing current surplus rain trend will reduce slowly as the season progress.some north western parts will have less than normal rain fall in the coming months.

  4. All four thermal plants around Chennai are under operational now.. This might be the reason for hotter June.. Ennore, North Chennai, Vallur and Basin bridge are in full production levels..

  5. Blazing warm sunny weather welcomes me to Vizag. Expecting the core city area to me much cooler.Vizag airport area is always hotter by few degrees compared to the city area.Must be around 32 or 33 deg C.

  6. @KAR,

    kingrogerforever did not reply regarding the outing.

    As far as I know the real kingroger will be stationed in Wimbledon for the next 18 days or so to collect his 8th crown

    • @Kea, When it comes to Roger, you are always optimism personified.When it comes to Nunga getting rains, you are an eternal pessimist..Any way, if something cheers you, im more than happy.:)

    • @kea..looks like you are one of my die hard fan and i thank you for the wishes;)team outing is at planet adventures paintball,kottivakkam..

  7. landed in Mumbai yday and was greeted by glorious,steady rains from 9am until 7.30pm..some heavy spells in the middle..like our LP rains..today has brought in some brillant sunshine..will reach chennai tonight..can see some dots in the NW..do not see sea breeze as yet..hope to see some rains tonight in chennai

  8. OMG look at those red spots to the NW!

    ….just kidding 😉 But isnt it about time in the afternoon when hopes soar as high as the temp only to come crashing down like the sweat in the evening? :))

  9. Hope all would have seen the pictures of devastation in Uttrakhand.. i was there in Kedarnath and other places exactly a year back and i can only pray for help seeing these pictures.. I believe all these waters go and drain itself into the sea.. anybody here who knows the status of project to connect rivers? Pity ah..

  10. Radar looks ok though not promising. TS about 40 kms North oh Chennai..Will it be our day??? Vizag was very humid till about 3pm, then a sudden cloud formation that led to drop in temps n more comfortable now.

  11. looking at all the rivers over flowing in uttarakhand i only wonder what would happen if our dear old Cooum river over flows..

    Would there be any change in the state of weather if our Cooum would not be used as a medium of waste disposal?

  12. Heavy rain in Anthiyur taluk Erode dt.around 30 mm to 50 mm reported in most of the places near to Anthiyur.

  13. Some rains starting from 21st.

    Western disturbance had moved eastwards will reduce rains in north and north west India. Will gradually increase rains over E, NE & South India.

    Sea breeze will be back by tomorrow. LOW may form by 21st near north coastal AP, will bring us rains.

    • yes, i am a proteas fan.SA deserve this defeat so that in future Gary Kirsten won’t change the team order.I don’t know why they constantly change the team for each tournament.

  14. two things tat prevented ts formation was strong phase of westerly winds n Bay disturbance.. Westerly winds dominated by not allowing the sea breeze to reach the certain level..both north rain and bay disturbance sucke heat content n energy..hope things change faster.

    • Bold prediction Kea – but Chennai proves there is plenty of fight left in the belly. We are now surging past yesterday’s temp 😀 Can we touch 40C is more like it.

    • @Selvafun…all this is happening for TRPs..every news channel wants to outwit the others…positive thing is media is bringing out all the scams…negatives are channels are misrepresenting facts without proper analysis and they also tend to quickly move into the next breaking news with the result there is no closure of earlier scams..who remembers CWG scam / Delhi rape?

    • it has become cloudy again in north bangalore….dark clouds towards west…rains again for the same area it seems

  15. 14 °C at Cardiff-Wales, United Kingdom
    80% chance of precipitation
    Today is forecast to be Cooler than yesterday.


    Chennai City Police is conducting “OPERATION HAMLA-II” throughout the city for a duration of 48 hours from 6:00 AM today. Dummy terrorists with weapons and bombs will enter any of the buildings, especially IT Parks, which will be prevented by the local police.

    Guys, witnessed this today??? Jon, anything like that in Siruseri?

  17. Oh god again heavy rains will lash uttarkhand from 22 on wards. What these state governments are doing. sleeping? It is really annoying in 21st century a state government do not take any precautionary and serious to steps to tackle the flood. they wont do anything even in the coming days.

  18. Been drizzling in Vizag coupled with thunder and lightning since 6pm.Nothing big in terms of intensity with all those thunder and lightning. Funny part is that its still humid as I board the train. Hardly any chill breeze.

  19. Australia has the worlds best bowling attack – Australian coach

    Ponting retires from all cricket

    Probably he just wanted to make sure he doesn’t get any surprise Ashes call up in this weakest Aussie side in more than a century. Seriously what made the coach say they have the best bowling attack?

  20. I vehemently protest the title “Chance of evening TS”. We are talking about Chennai weather and the title should be about it – not about the rest of India. I recommend “Chance of breaching 40C still alive” 😀

    PS: I am missing the ***** system – I had a record for maximum one star posts and now its all wiped out 😀

    • Lets see how the draw unfolds..Rafa is always suspect in the first week on grass and that too when he comes up against some big servers (like Rasol. Delop,Marin Cilic Isner etc..)..At the same time his confidence must be good after winning the FO. And for the first time, i think he has opted to skip preparatory grass tournaments..

      • @Prabhu- im think you are a Rafa fan–You are 100% right in saying that the courts slows down a bit in the second week ,once the fresh grass seen in the first few days takes a beating from the baseline slugfest by most of the players..On the finals one can see the the entire base line area is worn out and devoid of any grass..The balls have become heavier and over the years the courts have surely slowed down which helps players like Rafa to play their game..

  21. @Ashwinds,

    Do you have a powercut as well?

    BTW it is around 0.5c more than what it was yesterday and we happened to reach 39.7 yesterday. Is 40 on the cards today? Did you check the title of the post?

  22. Yesterday has been a Hot day everywhere in Tamil Nadu……Nungambakkam tops it all with 39.7c and Puducherry comes second with 39.6c..Vellore and Madurai at 37c….Tiruchi at 38.5c..Even Tirupattur and Dharmapuri which had been recording 30-33c since SWM started recorded 35 degrees yesterday…..Coimbatore remains super good at 32c….!

  23. We are falling behind on the hot streak. Looks like another day of disappointment, unless there is a late surge we may not make it to 40C 😦

    But then tomorrow is another day – and we still have a few hours today – lets be hopeful.

  24. “Latest COLA model suggests that #Chennai is expected to have #HOT days for next 5 days, with 10 or 20% chance of evening sharp shower.”

    Translating that to English:
    “It will continue to be hot with almost no chance of rain”.

    AKA typical Chennai summer/winter. We have atleast FIVE days to cross 40C – plenty of chances


  25. Disturbance is moving towards north AP and orrisa.Its going to bring very heavy rain for AP and orrisa for next few days. Chennai would get some rain from the system.

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