484 thoughts on “Dry weather expected to continue

    • @Sk- yep–Entire central India is going to be benefited from the low which is going to make its way through two or three states and may extend up to eastern Pakistan.Cities like Karachi may benefit too..

    • Santa Cruz is always like our Meena–Generally scores over Colaba in terms of rainfall…Kea no surprises there..When Santa Cruz got 92 cms on July 27th 2005, Colaba got only around 7 cms in the same period.

      • hr-Yeah, June is the start of the wet weather in Bombay and it is never cold there,on the contrary it is always humid even if it is raining..There lies a major difference between the rains which we get and what the west coast get..Since the NEM coincides with the winter (December), one can feel the cold breezewhich blows during torrential downpour in the month of December here..Im telling this from my experience of enjoying Bombay monsoon over a period of time..(its something like rajapaarvai song–thaneeril nirkum bodhey verkinradhey)..

    • TS may not happen today..Less chances from the looks of it as of now..Its still partly cloudy and a full blazing sun shine is needed for any convective activity.

  1. PJ it has to rain continuously in cauvery water catchment areas until sep-oct only then it can make up last year deficiency and mettur will get some water. otherwise karnataka dams will get filled up. but we wont get any thing.

  2. Guys! Posting after a long time! following the blog daily for years.., now out of all your experience reply to this.., is there any possibilities of rain on coming Sunday morning- afternoon, weather is unpredictable, but just try to give a forecast out of your experience.., have an important bike ride this Sunday 🙂

  3. Top Tamil Nadu Rainfall

    in mm ending 8.30 am on 14.06.2013

    Avalanchee – 133
    Papanasam Dam – 86
    Upper Kodayar – 80
    Valparai – 71
    Servalar – 67
    Sholayar Dam – 65
    Lower Kodayar – 63
    Chinna Kallar – 60

  4. Kollur Rocking again….its posts the 4th 100 mm+ rainfall

    It tops again for 4th straight day with 221 mm rainfall

    From June 1st it has got 865 mm rainfall. Leaving Agumbe behind.

  5. There were pre-monsoon showers at Gurgaon and Manesar today and the entire region seems to be covered by clouds.. rains could start by late tonight or early tomorrow here… heading back to chennai in next few hours.

  6. Here the weather in really untolerable. Though the temperature is 22 degree,
    the humidity is extemely high of 94% and there is wind flow at all.

    Since here almost all the house interiors are made of wood, it is irritating inside the house…same for outside

  7. Kea

    now the kea metsite looks perfect. Logo is the only concern…you have to look for a wonderful logo too cover that area

    also little bit modifications need in the rainfall extemees are to avoid the unwanted empty areas

    • Kea-This is for you..Top-seeded Roger Federer beat German wild card Mischa Zverev 6-0, 6-0 on Friday to reach the semifinals of the Gerry Weber Open grass-court tournament.

      Federer needed only 39 minutes to record the second “double bagel” of his career. Federer also won 6-0, 6-0 over Gaston Gaudio at the Masters Cup in Shanghai in 2005.

  8. Novaknole, ther is nothing big in radar to excite us… These tiny pre-storms failed to grow and move into later mature stages tat leads to rain.. Ther is no usual evening sea breeze .. Bit stuffy.

  9. If it rains in chennai, we can feel the chillness. but even if it rains for one full day, we can feel the chillness here in tokyo rare. for the past 4 days, we have intermittent showers, but still there is no chillness

    • Thats what happens in Mumbai too..It will be pouring buckets..Still there will be hardly any chillness. You will get a feeling as though somebody has opened the shower on top and thats it..Thats why we enjoy NEM,as it brings some chillness..

    • Daily oru kadi–எனக்கொரு-டவுட்டு ‘திரு’க்கு பெண்பால் திருமதி. அப்ப திருடன்-க்கு பெண்பால் திருமதிடன்-ன்னுதானே சொல்லணும்…

  10. IMD Evening Bulletin

    Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely tobe 98% of the long period average with a model error of + /­ 4%

  11. The trough moves towards north west in next 48 hours. Possibility of Onset of SWM in next 48 hours over rest of North East, North and some parts of NW india as per GFS.

    This is terrible, onset advance 2 weeks earlier?

    Whenever the onset is early, we had surplus.

    I wonder how much we get this season during SWM & Importantly during NEM.

    South India may be reeling under hot climate next week. Possible.

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

  12. scattered thunderstorms forecasted for tokyo 2night and 2moro. probability is just 30%. but on sunday, the probability is 70%

  13. I dont think we will get TS in next 4-5 days.

    Since the trough which moves NW from 15th and intesifies there.

    That trough is getting weaker from 20th, we may get TS from 20th only.

  14. next one week turning to be sunny..however can expect some rain on sunday night..total rainfall for another week would be 8-10 mm for Chennai..

  15. I think once we get early onset of sea breeze after hot n clear day,we’ll have more chance of heavy rain,look at the storms in the sea,they intensified n got bigger quickly after entering bay

    Experts here know better than me.Correct me if I am wrong

    • Joel,

      Wind blows from west to east. If a TS reaches the sea from west to east it is a good sign and it reflects the strength of monsoon. I agree with you on this part.

      But,

      There is no chance of a sea breeze during this time of the year, it will happen only during April & May when there is not monsoon winds(SWM).

  16. @joel

    Yep, you are right. We need lots of sunshine, low pressure, high moisture content in air and early sea breeze. Also,only cumulus clouds allowed 😛

    @partha sir

    Sea breeze occurs all year round in coastal areas

  17. Parthasri,Ther wnt b any TS if ther is no sea breeze…. Due to heating of interior land, thermal low wil form ,tat wil attract the winds 4m sea… Winds always blow 4m hpa to lpa.. These Winds wil be of low level to mid level.. ts forms wer the warm low n sea breeze meets… It happens mostly near vellore, tiruvannamalai regions.

  18. You are right selva. During August and September whenever sea breeze sets in early you can see thunderstorms popping in northern districts of TN.

    These period produces violent thunderstorm. I remember many such localised thunder storms in tiruvannamalai.

    A supercell in October mid 2000 gave 6 cms rain in an hour. It was very violent with lightning flashing every second for almost an hour.

    I miss those days.

  19. 3 continuos days before 10th oct,2011…Tambaram got rain from 12pm-1pm with very severe thunders and lightning..most violent i have ever seen ,,,,it was 4cm,5cm,3cm(Day 1,2,3) all in one hour!..The lightning caused minor damage to telephine lines…and damage to a building on the other day!..the loudest thunder and the nearest lightning i could have ever seen!

    • u only dragged me few days before if u can remember.. so same applies to u.. btw wat do u mean by all kids have no respect to seniors?? I don’t understand

  20. Only when sea breeze sets in early like in late aug to september, storms form near or sometimes even on the coast. Otherwise they form >20 km away from coast

  21. @joshstorm,

    Good luck with your tide tomorrow. Hope one day even I can do that distance. My best is 65 km done couple of years back. Lost motivation for cycling.

    Doing more running recently.

  22. Heavy rains in catchment area of Karnataka is resulting in Good inflows in Dams

    Papanasam ~ 2000 cusecs (It has 73 ft current storage compared 22 ft last year)
    Bhavanisagar ~ 2000 cusecs
    Amaravathy ~ 1900 cusecs
    Periyar ~ 1700 cusecs
    Sholayar ~ 1800 cusecs (Sholayar has got 620 mm rainfall for past 15 days. The highest in the state of Tamil Nadu)

    Bad News – Conditions getting worse for Mettur and Chennai Dams

  23. Reblogged this on ganesanganesh and commented:
    hi, I am Ganesan, though not exactly new, greeting you all for the first time, made some postings intermittently from the first week of May. I am a whether enthusisast, popularly known amongst my friends as ‘Ramanan’ (may be with a touch of redicule) as I manage to predict rain, of course with the help of whether web sites, (Technically I know nothing) fairly precisely. Discussions on TS along the coastel lilne of tn by Selvenfun, Joel, Parthasri are enlightening. I have watched many a times Thunder clouds build up in the west not materialising in the absence of sea breeze.
    Preadeep john’s data are revealing

  24. Driest Place till 14.06.2013 this SWM

    in mm

    Pamban, Tamil Nadu – 1
    Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu – 1
    Tiruchi AP, Tamil Nadu – 1
    Dharmapuri, Tamil Nadu – 1
    Coimbatore AP, Tamil Nadu – 2
    Nagapattinam, Tamil Nadu – 4
    Madurai AP, Tamil Nadu – 6
    Idar, Gujarat – 7
    Bhuj, Gujarat – 8
    Parangipettai, Tamil Nadu – 9

  25. Today Hindu – From IMD

    Normal rainfall for Indian – 89CM
    NW India – 61.5CM
    Central India – 97.5CM
    NE India – 144CM
    South India – 71.5CM

    In 2013 Prediction:
    NW India – 94CM
    Central India – 98CM
    NE India – 98CM
    South India – 103CM

    Excess rainfall expected in NW, approx 32%, South India excess 29%. I remember IMD said last month that it will be deficit in South India.

    It is deficit in NE approx 32%.

    • Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) will put a second satellite in orbit in July: advanced meteorology satellite INSAT-3D is slated to fly weeks after the space agency launches the regional navigation satellite. ISRO will launch navigation satellite IRNSS-1A from Sriharikota on the light-lift PSLV rocket on July 1.

      INSAT-3D is meant exclusively for meteorological studies. Weighing 2,090 kg, it will be flown to its orbit on the European Ariane 5 launch vehicle. It is tentatively planned to be sent up on July 26, says an ISRO official.

      Paris-based Arianespace announced on Thursday that the spacecraft had reached the French Guiana space port of Kourou this week and would go into space along with Alphasat, Europe’s largest telecommunication satellite, which is owned by the U.K.-based commercial operator Inmarsat. It said, “Payload preparations for Arianespace’s third Ariane 5 mission in 2013 have commenced following this week’s delivery of INSAT-3D, which is one of two spacecraft that will be lofted on a heavy-lift flight targeted for the second half of July.”

      Kindly note the second paragraph..Exclusive for meteorological studies.

  26. Sirvani details not disclosed to public.

    Sholayar – 620 mm till today, its the Tamil Nadu topper
    Valparai – 502 mm till today
    Chinna Kallar – 320 mm till yesterday

    Devala – 530 till yesterday
    Upper Kodayar – 440 mm till yesterday
    Upper Bhavani – 400 mm till yesterday

    I am expecting Chinna Kallar to top charts today

  27. Looks like the shower yesterday night affected nungambakkam too. My area along with nunga records TRACE :mrgreen:

  28. Tamil Nadu Toppers till 15.06.2013

    Sholayar – 620 mm
    Devala – 530 mm till yesterday
    Valparai – 502 mm
    Upper Bhavani – 500 mm
    Upper Kodayar – 480 mm
    Parsons Valley – 350 mm
    Chinna Kallar – 320 mm till yesterday

  29. @Sudharshan..
    We have seen enough times in Sept..storms approaching chennai from NNE…they form just on the coastline or near the sea…Like sep 29,2011,in which Nungambakkam recorded 7cm in one hour..

  30. Btw few days back i mentioned Nungambakam if at all Nungambakkam has a chance in SWM it’s only in Aug/Sep….By that i did not mean Nungambakkam gets more rain than Mennambakkam….Meenambakkam averages slightly higher than Nungambakkam for all SWM excepts June(That’s because of 1996 June) …..But what i have observed over these last 10 years is that ,in years where Nungambakkam has got greater SWM rainfall,its Aug/Sep has been particularly better than Meena’s Aug/Sep

  31. Hi All,

    Even though i am not expert in Weather by any means since born and grown and chennai i have been noticing the weather patterns changing around slightly. Could someone clarify on the below points.

    *Number of hot days (40+) are getting reduced considerably.This year summer was pretty comfortable other than very few days during may.

    *Chennai is known for its hot climate in June. This is not the case this time around.

    *Barring 2005 and 2008 we are not seeing any heavy downpour lashing the city even during NEM.

    *There are more cyclones nowadays than DD or LPA. Usually cyclones in bay used to cross N. AP or orissa.There are hardly any cyclones crossing AP and orissa. Even Mahasen crossed WB. Most of the cyclones gets weakened considerably before reaching TN Coast.

    *We are missing the early morning showers nowadays(3.00 AM to 6AM). When was the last time it rained in chennai considerably during these hours. May be around 2011.i cannot recollect .

    thanks for all your patience in reading this. its just my personal observation.

  32. Good Rains in Nilgris and Coimbatore districts

    in mm ending 8.30 am on 15.06.2013

    Upper Bhavani – 100
    Sholayar – 78
    Avalanchee – 77
    Valparai – 72
    Parsons Valley – 72
    Papanasam – 40
    Upper Kodayar – 39
    Servalar – 36
    Porthimund – 33
    Glenmorgan – 32
    Manalar – 20
    Emerald – 19
    Pollachi(North) – 18
    Thondamuthur – 15
    Pykara – 11

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