508 thoughts on “Cyclone Mahasen heading north

    • As per my understanding compounding drier region will inflict and further detoriate this LLCC clouds.But when TC come closer to us,this impact would be reduced to certain extend.till that time no good sign..

      • Mahasen’s latest position @1.30 am is
        9.48N,87.85 which is 925 km south east to Chennai.
        moving speed is 10km /hr.This is slower than in yesterday evng/afternoon speed(18Km/hr).
        It seems it may stay at particular position today.So better chance to divert its path.

  1. meteorology dept.criticised by Local Media:-

    Myanmar’s meteorology department has alerted the public about the cyclones through state-media television channels. However, the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology was earlier criticized by the local media for their wrong cyclone reports which said on May 10 that the storm may not head towards Myanmar, and which were against those reports from international agencies at that time.


    • Mahasen’s latest position @1.30 am is
      9.48N,87.85 which is 925 km south east to Chennai.
      moving speed is 10km /hr.This is slower than in yesterday evng/afternoon speed(18Km/hr).
      It seems it may stay at particular position today.So better chance to divert its path.

  2. @pradeep
    MSLP at Chennai reduces by 0.5mbar /hr.Currently it is 999.1 mbar(hPa).This is good sign for diverting the system.

  3. thanks Guys..Its better for me to wind up .Let some good thing will happen later today and tomorrow.Good night

  4. Sry guys..Slight change in path at 1 to 1:30am IST.Let us wait for update in the morning
    2013MAY11 180000 9.42 -87.94
    2013MAY11 183000 9.47 -87.87
    2013MAY11 190000 9.52 -87.81
    2013MAY11 193000 9.57 -87.74 <<<<<<<
    2013MAY11 200000 9.48 -87.85 <<<<<<<<
    2013MAY11 203000 9.52 -87.79

    • See this.Instead of moving back to coordinates 9.52N 87.81E,it came to 9.52N 87.79E.Hope this slight change(approx 2KM drifting) in longi will make great thing for us.

  5. why does the system looks like,it has moved more west than North. Or am i interpreting it incorrectly ?

  6. cyclone Mahasen looks disorganized and slightly weakened due to the wind shear.Shear seems to be relaxing now which is allowing convection to build so intensification phase will start soon.The system is under very high SST but the outflow have decreased.
    from satellite animation its clear that system is started to intensify again as the shear is decreasing.The shear value is around 10-15 knots around the system as mentioned by Cmiss but JTWC maintains it as 5-10 knots.System would not have loosed its shape if shear is 5-10 knots.

  7. If not mistaken JTWC predicted Jamala will move westward and will intensify later or something in their last update but the recent update says system moved eastward and centre almost exposed. So models were somewaht wrong in predicting that system. hope something like that happens here

  8. If not for the shear this storm would be a monster.SST value in south central bay is slightly higher than the one which made cyclone GIri to explode in intensity.Luckily for GIRI the wind shear was extremely low.

  9. As usual, divergence between the CIMSS and NOAA on the system’s center position. The centre has virtually disappeared for the past two hours due to high shear.

  10. Vinoth, did u note tis… . TC 01B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICALRIDGE (STR)… earlier it was moving near the western periphery… so ridge stays ther wel in n.east bay ,xtended n.bay too… gr8 news 4 us.

  11. rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO012013

    getting closer to Chennai than expected before recurving… hope it weakens and crosses NTN and SAP.

  12. check the radar its visible in ppi 500 km east south east of Chennai.If it moves WNW for another 12 hours will come closer to Chennai and we will get some rain. lets wait n see.

  13. sel you have started to track the next system.you are not interested in the present one since yesterday. what happened did you just give up?

  14. Ehsan,

    how did u miss this

    After weather bloggers predicted a cyclone and possible rains for the city a few days ago, many residents had hoped for showers and cool winds to give them a break from the sweltering heat.

    While the city may not see heavy downpours or lowered temperatures, a few odd showers can be expected, meteorological department officials said.

    The cyclone, Mahasen, lay centred at 11.30 a.m. on Saturday some 1,230 km southeast of Chennai. It is likely to move northwest and then expected to re-curve northeast towards the Myanmar coast. The closest it will come to the city is on Monday, when it is expected to be 650 km from the coast, said an official.


  15. Mahesan timely help to TN in Power Generation.

    Wind energy, which has picked up in the last few days, is expected to go up steeply in the coming days, thanks to the formation of a cyclonic storm over the Bay.

    Since Wednesday, the average generation of wind power is on the rise. On Thursday, at about 9 p.m., it was as high as 3,106 megawatt (MW). At about 7 p.m. on Saturday, it touched 3,100 MW. The maximum production can go as high as 3,500 MW.


  16. When will you all learn to stop hunting evasive cyclones and peacefully wait for our main and only monsoon season – SWM ;)

    What a blistering start to today. I read there was a roof collapse in a theater in Vellore due to heavy rain in Tirupattur region. No such luck a few kms away in Chennai.

  17. System is moving more wnw now…yesterday all models predicted it won’t go beyond 86.9E…now it already 86.5E…and now they changed to 85.5 E..

    Good show by mahasen for us…

      • don’t know the reason but whenever a cyclone forms in bay, JAL automatically comes to my mind. such a big impact it made mentally. history nook still says it crossed chennai

  18. can some one post the details about cyclones that hit or came close to TN by date month year category and amount of rainfall with wind speed? yeah it is difficult to compile all the data.but Try your best :)

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