Water scarcity looming large across the nation. Elephants finding their way into the lands in some of the districts in TN?
Where are we heading towards? Will the S.W monsoon save us from this fury of water crisis?
Experts thoughts most welcome!
Yep, it was very humid at 7 am itself. But for now, it’s not that pretty hot outside. Let’s wait and see if Chennai AP will record 38 degrees or less today…..Nunga will always be spared, thanks to the early onset of sea breeeze.
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/South-China-Sea/WAVE000.GIF Interaction between westerlies and N.easterlies in s.china sea.. hope tis wil lead to the circulation. if the same northeasterly winds wer in bay, v mite hav seen a system last week…
@hr649–Probably foreca’s 32 is midnight temp i think..whatever it is–its going to be dog days as they say in the coming months till july and second week of August..Hence all these 32, 34, 37 do not matter at all..
Gfs says system wil b in bay.. Cmc – s.china sea system entering into bay, Nogaps- s.china sea. cpc/ noaa- The threat of tropical cyclogenesis over the Indian Ocean and South China Sea during Week-1 is enhanced, with formation over the South China Sea slightly more likely than over the Bay of Bengal.
Wasnt there a system expected on Apr 15 as well? Did it fizzle out?
These systems do nothing other than contribute their mite to stop the onset of monsoon on time.
Will this impact the onset of SWM on time this year too?
not to forget bumping up humidity as they pass tantalisingly past chennai 😛 the way chennai’s humidity ratchets up and lurks in the 80s-90s I sometimes wonder if we have crossed 100% without precipitation 😛
Ashwin,Yes.ther wil b a system on april 15 in gulf of thailand adjoining bay waters… Strong anticyclone in sw-central bay may steer the system twrds myanmar… and ther shld b another system in s.bay at tat time…
I hope it stays really far from Chennai if its going to steer towards Myanmar. Those are the kind which suck out all the wind and leave us nothing but high humidity.
Warning 4m TMD :The easterly wave over the South China Sea becomes the low pressure cell and will pass the Gulf and the South of Thailand during 12-14 April inducing torrential rainfall over the areas. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain will be likely in the Lower South with the wind-waves above 2 meters high in thundershower areas. All ships should proceed with caution
I was in Bangalore last weekend..the dry heat was appalling..the skin and hair went through quite a grind and believe me I was glad to return to the humid and moderately warm Chennai ..I am aware that in May,the tables will be turned,but I guess at this juncture,humidity has its own charm!
NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model) is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by NOAA. It replaced NOGAPS as the prime model in the middle of February 2013 at the FNMOC Weather model synoptic site.
I dot know what that E meant. I assumed it as Easterly wave.
And i checked most of the models. I dont think that large mass of cloud will sustain in BoB. They are going to fade away. or as usual move towards SL.
What do you say.
yes it may fade away after entering s.east bay in next 3 days…. seems v hav to wait more for pre monsoon bay low.. convectional trough shld develop in s.bay… tat is the 1st n best sign..
Kea– Belated bday wishes..read Hindu and finally was able to put a face to yr name..and guess what..I recall you sitting in the next row at the Jan 2013 chennai open!
The possibility of a normal southwest monsoon in India has been predicted by some private forecasters. The prediction is due to initial favourable global weather patterns.
“There is an 80 per cent chance of a normal southwest monsoon this year, as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has so far been neutral this year,” Jatin Singh, founder and CEO of Skymet weather services to Business Standard.
One of the important factor that has a direct bearing on India’s southwest monsoon is ENSO. In the last 112 years, only in five years had a drought like condition prevailed despite an ENSO neutral condition, he added.
“The last time drought- like conditions prevailed despite a neutral ENSO condition was in 1979.
Before that, it was in 1974, 1968, 1920 and 1901. So, there is a reasonable chance that India might have a near- normal southwest monsoon this year,” Singh said.
A latest report by the Bureau Of Meteorology in Australia says that, ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific remained at neutral levels.
“Current observations and model predictions indicate this neutral pattern is likely to continue into the southern hemisphere autumn as well,” the bureau said.
KeaWeather Archives 
Today’s maximum only around 34
Seems there is a light cloud cover. Humidity seems to be ratcheting up rapidly. Any chance of TSs today?
Meenamabakkam is unbearably hot for the past three days. What’s Meenambakkam score today? Crossed century already for the day?
Water scarcity looming large across the nation. Elephants finding their way into the lands in some of the districts in TN?
Where are we heading towards? Will the S.W monsoon save us from this fury of water crisis?
Experts thoughts most welcome!
Nemmeli clones to the rescue 😉
Must say the water is cleaner than earlier – anyone else from Adyar and areas around see any difference?
Not so hot today but I’m yet to go out
Chennai 34.1
Chennai AP 36.3
Coimbatore AP 38.5
Madurai 41
Trichy 40.4
S.china sea system entering into bay next week???
ya da…. unexpected
very very humid morning
Yep, it was very humid at 7 am itself. But for now, it’s not that pretty hot outside. Let’s wait and see if Chennai AP will record 38 degrees or less today…..Nunga will always be spared, thanks to the early onset of sea breeeze.
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/South-China-Sea/WAVE000.GIF Interaction between westerlies and N.easterlies in s.china sea.. hope tis wil lead to the circulation. if the same northeasterly winds wer in bay, v mite hav seen a system last week…
# of 36 + days until April 10th
2013 – 2
2012 – 1 (in March
2011 – 3 (all in March, none in April)
2010 – 2
2009 – 1 (on Mar 1st)
2008 – nil
2007 – nil
2006 – 1 (in March)
2005 – 1 (in March)
Max temp until april 10th
2013 – 36.5
2012 – 36.3
2011 – 37.7
2010 – 37.0
2009 – 36.2
2008 – 34.2
2007 – 35.6
2006 – 36.8
2005 – 36.9
Chennai 5 day forecast according to various models,
Accu – 37, 37, 37, 37, 37
Bing – 34, 33, 33, 34, 33
Foreca – 32, 32, 32, 32, 32
Skymet – 36. 37. 37. 37. 37
Yahoo – 34, 34, 36, 35, 35
WU – 34, 34, 34, 35, 34
Accu and Skymet are way off, Foreca is too low. The rest Bing, Yahoo and WU seems correct. Need to follow this closely over the next few months.
duno wats wrong wid foreca……. its shows too low.. it was perfect during rainy and winter season…….
@hr649–Probably foreca’s 32 is midnight temp i think..whatever it is–its going to be dog days as they say in the coming months till july and second week of August..Hence all these 32, 34, 37 do not matter at all..
SW monsoon under threat?
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/japanese-scientists-scan-indian-ocean-for-monsoon-trap/article4598892.ece?homepage=true
patches of clouds from the south over city
Cyclone warning for bay http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_small.png
Gfs says system wil b in bay.. Cmc – s.china sea system entering into bay, Nogaps- s.china sea. cpc/ noaa- The threat of tropical cyclogenesis over the Indian Ocean and South China Sea during Week-1 is enhanced, with formation over the South China Sea slightly more likely than over the Bay of Bengal.
Japan jma model’s next 72 hour run shows strong low level circulation in s.east bay..
http://www.firstpost.com/sports/dhoni-pays-homage-to-sir-ravindra-jadeja-on-twitter-691935.html
http://news.yahoo.com/u-air-force-eyes-mixed-approach-next-weather-182055488–sector.html
Intense convection seen in gulf of thailand and xtreme s.east bay…. Wich 1 going to succeed??
may 1st week 2 cyclone spinning in north indian ocean at the same time…. 1 in arb sea and another in bay…
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/tcforecast/tcforecast.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html
Wasnt there a system expected on Apr 15 as well? Did it fizzle out?
These systems do nothing other than contribute their mite to stop the onset of monsoon on time.
Will this impact the onset of SWM on time this year too?
not to forget bumping up humidity as they pass tantalisingly past chennai 😛 the way chennai’s humidity ratchets up and lurks in the 80s-90s I sometimes wonder if we have crossed 100% without precipitation 😛
Rainfall in mm in Karanataka
ending 8.30 am on 11.04.2013
Bagamandala – 34
Sangmeswrpet – 25
Malandur – 15
Aurad – 14
Avathi – 11
Balehonnur – 10
Sasavehalli – 5
Ambali – 5
Nimberga – 5
Anantapur – 5
Shishila – 5
Ashwin,Yes.ther wil b a system on april 15 in gulf of thailand adjoining bay waters… Strong anticyclone in sw-central bay may steer the system twrds myanmar… and ther shld b another system in s.bay at tat time…
I hope it stays really far from Chennai if its going to steer towards Myanmar. Those are the kind which suck out all the wind and leave us nothing but high humidity.
Warning 4m TMD :The easterly wave over the South China Sea becomes the low pressure cell and will pass the Gulf and the South of Thailand during 12-14 April inducing torrential rainfall over the areas. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain will be likely in the Lower South with the wind-waves above 2 meters high in thundershower areas. All ships should proceed with caution
So what do we infer from this and how relevant is this?
Yeah
Mission accomplished
??????????
Meena records 34.5 today. Looks like its in a cold spell at the beginning of summer
min 24.1
it was strangely not so hot this morning. I think min was around 25 C
Luk at the sat image .. .atlast the disturbance turning into action http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indian/southern/ir/LATEST.jpg
tirupathur max 39.0 min 19.6.. weird extremes
Foreca predicting lil rain on 16 and 19
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
Precip chance: 61% on 11am friday ap 19
Selva,
The shear looks good as of now. But the shear is expected to increase in next 24 hrs.
The system can only go below 10 N. It cannot come to Chennai. But light rains are not ruled out.
Reports of rains in Kanyakumari
Pj sir, shear luks gud but as of now,the only worry factor is hpa in central bay….
http://202.54.31.51/wrf/WRFd02-WSH_00.gif – Shear looks good
http://202.54.31.51/wrf/WRFd02-WSH_24.gif – Increase in Shear
http://202.54.31.51/wrf/WRFd02-WSH_48.gif – Increase in shear above 10 N and decrease in shear below 10 N – Mostly the cloud formation will be below this
April 11, 2012 – Chennai tremors….adhukulla 1 year aiduchu….
Data Man,
Have you started preparing the Top Bloggers list? 😀
its mid april and the max temp is just 33.8. even bengloor started enjoying the summer-37c
Why chennai weather behave like this?
I was in Bangalore last weekend..the dry heat was appalling..the skin and hair went through quite a grind and believe me I was glad to return to the humid and moderately warm Chennai ..I am aware that in May,the tables will be turned,but I guess at this juncture,humidity has its own charm!
There is a chance of some gailstorm tomorrow night for Chennai
no… ashwinds will ruin the chances
Sel, this is for u 🙂
Hail
@kea hail storm, which site predict this?
@emnomc, espncricinfo.com predict this..
lol
Thank you, Martin.
Dash,
This season is very hectic in my office. Will try and mail the list Ehsan. I dont want to commit any date.
NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model) is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by NOAA. It replaced NOGAPS as the prime model in the middle of February 2013 at the FNMOC Weather model synoptic site.
The low pressure in the South China Sea moved to the Malaysia andthe end of southern of Thailand and will move to Andaman Sea in the next phase.
Superb outflow,Divergence value at 50… Upperlevel anticyclone also been induced by the system…
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=
Sst kopilichifyng in bay http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Indian-Northern/SST.GIF
Lots of convection and cumulus already. A few tstorms possible
Few drizzles observed in Uthiramerur.
Storms near pondy and cuddalore!
gfs rules out the possibility of cyclone in bay
Disturbance entered malacca strait… Both the vorticity r converging…
Jon,
GFS may have ruled out a storm. But we will have rains. I dont remember when
Shear to Come down in next 4 days…The corridor to Chennai will be less than 20 kts
Sel, HPA problem gets solved after 15th. So guys hope for the best. Hope the easterly wave has enough moisture to give us rains.
Ehsan,
Wish you many many happy returns of the day.
kea
many more happy returns of the day 🙂
many more happy returns of d day kea…
if that hpa is not in bay,definitely tis disturbance will be a big system.
visual shot of the disturbance http://postimg.org/image/yonmm0spn/
awesome…
HPA and location of Easterly wave.
HPA
http://www.skymetweather.com/maps/overlays/Isobars
http://www.skymetweather.com/maps/overlays/Isobars
pj,E for Easterly wave???? equatorial rossby wave(ER) only knw???? they r westward moving wave…they usually trigger cyclogenesis along with mjo
I dot know what that E meant. I assumed it as Easterly wave.
And i checked most of the models. I dont think that large mass of cloud will sustain in BoB. They are going to fade away. or as usual move towards SL.
What do you say.
yes it may fade away after entering s.east bay in next 3 days…. seems v hav to wait more for pre monsoon bay low.. convectional trough shld develop in s.bay… tat is the 1st n best sign..
GFS no rain for Chennai till 21st
IMD GFS no rain for Chennai.
http://202.54.31.51/gfs_city_fc/
New IMD cyclone Website
http://www.cwcvsk.gov.in/
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/doppler-radar-products/
Sir jadeja at his best!!!!
Reports of heavy rainfall in Kanyakumari district
Congrats sir,
I read the article about you in Hindu 14/04/2013.
Congrats Ehsan, saw you in hindu. Many more wishes to you and blog team. Hope u may be rain optimist from now atleast. Will join active blogging soon.
Kea– Belated bday wishes..read Hindu and finally was able to put a face to yr name..and guess what..I recall you sitting in the next row at the Jan 2013 chennai open!
Hi Ehsan,
I read the article in Hindu yesterday, my best wishes to you.
I am proud to be the member of KEA.
Also Pradeep John name is mentioned. Congrats to him too.
The article said it reaches more than 400 hits during rainy season, but i would say it is more than that.
Also specified that this site is busy starting from June.
Amazing to note, lets all hope this season brings more cheers!!!
Nunga 36.6 & 28.2C.
Meena 37.5 & 27.3C
Light rain forecast for south tamil nadu for next 48 hours.
Near Normal Rainfall in 2013.
The possibility of a normal southwest monsoon in India has been predicted by some private forecasters. The prediction is due to initial favourable global weather patterns.
“There is an 80 per cent chance of a normal southwest monsoon this year, as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has so far been neutral this year,” Jatin Singh, founder and CEO of Skymet weather services to Business Standard.
One of the important factor that has a direct bearing on India’s southwest monsoon is ENSO. In the last 112 years, only in five years had a drought like condition prevailed despite an ENSO neutral condition, he added.
“The last time drought- like conditions prevailed despite a neutral ENSO condition was in 1979.
Before that, it was in 1974, 1968, 1920 and 1901. So, there is a reasonable chance that India might have a near- normal southwest monsoon this year,” Singh said.
A latest report by the Bureau Of Meteorology in Australia says that, ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific remained at neutral levels.
“Current observations and model predictions indicate this neutral pattern is likely to continue into the southern hemisphere autumn as well,” the bureau said.