104 thoughts on “Increase in temp likely

  1. Water scarcity looming large across the nation. Elephants finding their way into the lands in some of the districts in TN?
    Where are we heading towards? Will the S.W monsoon save us from this fury of water crisis?
    Experts thoughts most welcome!

    • Yep, it was very humid at 7 am itself. But for now, it’s not that pretty hot outside. Let’s wait and see if Chennai AP will record 38 degrees or less today…..Nunga will always be spared, thanks to the early onset of sea breeeze.

  2. # of 36 + days until April 10th

    2013 – 2
    2012 – 1 (in March
    2011 – 3 (all in March, none in April)
    2010 – 2
    2009 – 1 (on Mar 1st)
    2008 – nil
    2007 – nil
    2006 – 1 (in March)
    2005 – 1 (in March)

  3. Chennai 5 day forecast according to various models,

    Accu – 37, 37, 37, 37, 37

    Bing – 34, 33, 33, 34, 33

    Foreca – 32, 32, 32, 32, 32

    Skymet – 36. 37. 37. 37. 37

    Yahoo – 34, 34, 36, 35, 35

    WU – 34, 34, 34, 35, 34

    Accu and Skymet are way off, Foreca is too low. The rest Bing, Yahoo and WU seems correct. Need to follow this closely over the next few months.

    • @hr649–Probably foreca’s 32 is midnight temp i think..whatever it is–its going to be dog days as they say in the coming months till july and second week of August..Hence all these 32, 34, 37 do not matter at all..

  4. Gfs says system wil b in bay.. Cmc – s.china sea system entering into bay, Nogaps- s.china sea. cpc/ noaa- The threat of tropical cyclogenesis over the Indian Ocean and South China Sea during Week-1 is enhanced, with formation over the South China Sea slightly more likely than over the Bay of Bengal.

  5. These systems do nothing other than contribute their mite to stop the onset of monsoon on time.
    Will this impact the onset of SWM on time this year too?

    • not to forget bumping up humidity as they pass tantalisingly past chennai 😛 the way chennai’s humidity ratchets up and lurks in the 80s-90s I sometimes wonder if we have crossed 100% without precipitation 😛

  6. Rainfall in mm in Karanataka

    ending 8.30 am on 11.04.2013

    Bagamandala – 34
    Sangmeswrpet – 25
    Malandur – 15
    Aurad – 14
    Avathi – 11
    Balehonnur – 10
    Sasavehalli – 5
    Ambali – 5
    Nimberga – 5
    Anantapur – 5
    Shishila – 5

  7. Ashwin,Yes.ther wil b a system on april 15 in gulf of thailand adjoining bay waters… Strong anticyclone in sw-central bay may steer the system twrds myanmar… and ther shld b another system in s.bay at tat time…

    • I hope it stays really far from Chennai if its going to steer towards Myanmar. Those are the kind which suck out all the wind and leave us nothing but high humidity.

  8. Warning 4m TMD :The easterly wave over the South China Sea becomes the low pressure cell and will pass the Gulf and the South of Thailand during 12-14 April inducing torrential rainfall over the areas. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain will be likely in the Lower South with the wind-waves above 2 meters high in thundershower areas. All ships should proceed with caution

  9. Selva,

    The shear looks good as of now. But the shear is expected to increase in next 24 hrs.

    The system can only go below 10 N. It cannot come to Chennai. But light rains are not ruled out.

  10. I was in Bangalore last weekend..the dry heat was appalling..the skin and hair went through quite a grind and believe me I was glad to return to the humid and moderately warm Chennai ..I am aware that in May,the tables will be turned,but I guess at this juncture,humidity has its own charm!

  11. NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model) is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by NOAA. It replaced NOGAPS as the prime model in the middle of February 2013 at the FNMOC Weather model synoptic site.

  12. Jon,

    GFS may have ruled out a storm. But we will have rains. I dont remember when

    Shear to Come down in next 4 days…The corridor to Chennai will be less than 20 kts

    Sel, HPA problem gets solved after 15th. So guys hope for the best. Hope the easterly wave has enough moisture to give us rains.

  13. Kea– Belated bday wishes..read Hindu and finally was able to put a face to yr name..and guess what..I recall you sitting in the next row at the Jan 2013 chennai open!

  14. Hi Ehsan,

    I read the article in Hindu yesterday, my best wishes to you.

    I am proud to be the member of KEA.

    Also Pradeep John name is mentioned. Congrats to him too.

    The article said it reaches more than 400 hits during rainy season, but i would say it is more than that.

    Also specified that this site is busy starting from June.

    Amazing to note, lets all hope this season brings more cheers!!!

  15. Near Normal Rainfall in 2013.

    The possibility of a normal southwest monsoon in India has been predicted by some private forecasters. The prediction is due to initial favourable global weather patterns.

    “There is an 80 per cent chance of a normal southwest monsoon this year, as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has so far been neutral this year,” Jatin Singh, founder and CEO of Skymet weather services to Business Standard.

    One of the important factor that has a direct bearing on India’s southwest monsoon is ENSO. In the last 112 years, only in five years had a drought like condition prevailed despite an ENSO neutral condition, he added.

    “The last time drought- like conditions prevailed despite a neutral ENSO condition was in 1979.

    Before that, it was in 1974, 1968, 1920 and 1901. So, there is a reasonable chance that India might have a near- normal southwest monsoon this year,” Singh said.

    A latest report by the Bureau Of Meteorology in Australia says that, ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific remained at neutral levels.

    “Current observations and model predictions indicate this neutral pattern is likely to continue into the southern hemisphere autumn as well,” the bureau said.

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