319 thoughts on “Long dry phase ahead

  1. Long dry phase ahead? It’s also behind 😛 Envy other places like delhi enjoying winter – we neither had monsoon nor do we ever have winter.maybe it will get a little cooler if these stupid NE winds die (note the skipping of M from NEM) 🙂

  2. kea
    pls change ur title heading…. because ECMWF is predicting above normal rainfall activity this Jan-Feb-Mar and remember only ECMWF predicted NEM 2012 failure!

    • @Jupijove

      I am challenging ECMWF’s prediction. Normal rainfall activity means Chennai should receive anywhere between 34 – 52 mm of rainfall until Mar 31st.
      I am saying Chennai will struggle to receive even 5 mm until then.

      Anyone agreeing with me?

  3. The disturbance near srilanka still disorganized one.Moderate – high shear has prevented the system from developing into organised one.It remained stationary and never moved into the low shear are which is located to the north of the system.Currently its showing increased convection,it has to move bit north to get into favorable upper level environment but model remains skeptical.SST remains marginal for development.

      • Most of the models are expecting the system to be stationary which will keep the system in hostile environment.There is no proper steering winds for the system which is typical for january systems.Most of the January systems meander in lower latitude and finally dissipate.

  4. @Jupijove

    I am challenging ECMWF’s prediction. Normal rainfall activity means Chennai should receive anywhere between 34 – 52 mm of rainfall until Mar 31st.
    I am saying Chennai will struggle to receive even 5 mm until then.

    Anyone agreeing with me?

  5. vinodh, Watch Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln !!! Tey’l be surely in academy awards best motion picture nominations !! Luckily DVDscr available for all 3 movies.. 😉

  6. CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECORDED IN CENTIMETRES AT 0830 HOURS :-

    Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist) 8, Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist) 5, Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist) 2, Kuzhithurai and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari Dist) 1 each.

  7. We now has to expect strong SWM this year, so that we must be having good cultivation in south TN.

    When the same situation was in 1995, it was a NEM failure.

    In 1996 June 4th we had a cyclone formed in Bay, which gave chennai alone around 60CM.

    Lets hope for the same.

  8. Contest page updated.

    A lot of winners this time

    Congrats to Cat5Hurricane for scoring the Maximum (128) in December.

    Congrats to Cat5Hurricane, Rajeshhh, hr649, Joel, Sudarshan & Jupijove for scoring in all 3 months.

    Congrats to Kea for scoring 200 points (new record) in November.

    Congrats to Karthikstorm for finally scoring his first points in December

    Congrats to Ashwinds, Cat5Hurricane and Kea to finish in the top 3.

    Thanks to all KEA bloggers for participating in the contests.

  9. Shear is very low towards north TN, if the system moves in this direction then we can wipe of the deficits and also no water shortage.

    This time it was really disappointing.

  10. WEATHER FORECAST VALID UNTIL THE MORNING OF 9TH JANUARY 2013

    Isolated rain may occur over South Coastal Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep. Mainly dry weather will prevail over rest Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

    FORECAST FOR CHENNAI CITY AND NEIGHBOURHOOD:
    For next 24 hours:

    The sky conditions would be partly cloudy. Early morning mist /fog may occur in some areas. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 29 and 22 degree Celsius respectively.

    For next 48 hours:
    The sky conditions would be partly cloudy. Early morning mist /fog may occur in some areas. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 29 and 22 degree Celsius respectively.

    FARMERS WEATHER BULLETIN FORECAST VALID UNTIL THE MORNING OF 9TH JANUARY 2013

    Isolated light to moderate rain may occur over South Coastal Tamil Nadu and mainly fair weather will prevail over rest Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

    OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS: No significant change.

  11. Rainfall in Sri lanka :-

    Polonnaruwa – 20.7
    Kurunegala – 17.2
    Maha Iluppallama – 9.3
    Vavuniya – 8
    Trincomale – 8
    Anuradhapura – 7.6

  12. Like many cities in India, Chennai also has a dry season.

    And that dry season is happenning right now. I know many ppl in this blog like rain, but there is a time for everything.

    Unless some freaky weather phenomenom happens like Feb 2011 or 2000, nothing can be expected until April or May.

    Lets not fight over it. Dry season is dry season.

  13. Latest JTWC warning…

    The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

  14. The area of convection previously located near 4.0N 85.1E,
    Is now located near 4.9n 84.5e, approximately 300 nm east-southeast
    Of colombo, sri lanka.

    Animated multispectral satellite imagery (msi) shows a slight improvement in organization of convection around a low level circulation center (llcc) that is slowly drifting northward.

    A 070423z ascat pass indicates the winds around the llcc are between 15 to 25 knots. Upper level analysis indicates the llcc is well to the south of a subtropical ridge (str) axis and is under moderate vertical wind shear (vws) (15 to 20 knots),

    However, as the system moves north the vws is expected to decrease. Maximum
    Sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea
    Level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.

    The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

  15. Rainfall in mm in Tamil Nadu ending 8.30 am on 07.01.2013

    Colachel – 80
    Eraniel – 50
    Kulasekaram – 23
    Bhoothapandy – 20
    Kuzhithurai – 10
    Thuckalay – 8
    Anaikidangu – 6

    All the above places are located in Kanyakumari district.

  16. most of the water vapour is south-west of the 90B..it has to move more north atleast to the jaffna to expect more for TN from this sytem

    • They gave Dhoni 2 MOM’s to boost his morale

      1st ODI – Why didnt Jamshed get it? A century in a winning cause. Dhoni gets it for century in a losing cause

      3rd ODI – Dhoni gets MOM for 36 of 55, 1 stumping and 1 catch. Jadeja scored 27 of 39 and had figures of 1 for 19 in 10 overs and a catch.

      • In 1st ODI, Dhoni deserves the MOM…. He saved the match from low scoring. If not Jamshed wouldn’t have scored a century….

        but 3rd ODI’s MOM is puzzling !!

  17. There has been some confusion regarding the YOY stats on the right hand side.
    It is the top 5 bloggers of 2011 and 2012 based on the comments made.

    For eg. in top spot for 2011 and 2012 is Selvafun (no suprises) with 3,364 and 2,113 comments respectively

    In 2011 Karthik Narayan was 5th and in 2012 Vinodh was 5th.

    Strangely Jon, PJ, Sudharshan, Parthasri35, nor me figure in this list.

Please restrict Comments to Weather only

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s