128 thoughts on “New system 90B intensifying

  1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (SONAMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY BUILDING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE WELL DEFINED LOWLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI SHOWS THE LLCC IS BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY A FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS 01W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE STR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CURRENTLYFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS).3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 01W WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR OVER THAILAND BUILDS IN OVER VIETNAM, THE TRACK WILL BE DEPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 36. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, BUT AS VWS INCREASES, COOLER DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST SURGE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OFTHE SYSTEM, AND SSTS DECREASE, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 01W WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THAILAND. TS 01W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND NORTHEASTERN SURGE, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96 AS THE LLCC STARTS TO TRACK OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL OUTLIERS THAT TAKE THE REMNANTS OF THE LLCC TO THE SOUTH VICE TO THE WEST. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE NOGAPS SOLUTION WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, BUT DUE TO THE INCREASING VARIABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
    CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED TO LOW

    • So if this true they lack the skills to make and interpret dynamic models. They rely on statistical skills. This explains the whole of it.

      • yea… “But we have to continue with the statistical models since we don’t have enough skills to use the dynamic models” this part is too pathetic.

    • The IMD relies upon the statistical model which predicts seasonal and climatic patterns based on past information gathered from the US and European agencies. This model is unreliable and needs zero skil

    • The dynamic model used in the US and Europe involves 3D mathematical simulation of the atmosphere on computers. Dynamic models are useful to predict rainfall over a smaller scale, which is not possible in a statistical forecasting system.”

      Accepting the fact that dynamic models are the future of predictions, Shailesh Nayak, secretary, ministry of earth science, said Indian scientists were gradually shifting to the dynamic models.

      “We are gradually switching over to the dynamic models with higher accuracy levels. But we have to continue with the statistical models since we don’t have enough skills to use the dynamic models,” he said.

  2. Very disappointing day at Chennai open last night. 3 of the title contenders losing. Cilic, Wawarinka and Berdych.

    I wish they move this tournament out of Chennai next year. Players are not serious playing here, their main aim is to be fit for Australian Open starting in 8 days time. The only reason they come here, is they are obliged to. We the paying public is fooled to watching world class tennis, when these players do not even play at 25% their potential.

    How can Berdych (beat Federer at USO12 & Wimbledon11) lose to an unknown player?

    • @Kea- you echoed my views..I got season tickets for the Open..saw the first few matches of Prakash and Somdev and was looking fwd to see today and tmrw..but now with only Tipsy remaining,it will be a lacklustre semis and finals

  3. Nunga’s Max 29.9
    Meena’s Max 31.0

    Departure from Normal is 2 !!

    Nunga’s Min 20.8 – Departure from Normal 0
    Meena’s Min 21.8 – Departure from Normal 1

  4. Max temperature around TN :-

    KARUR 35.5
    MADURAI AP 34.4
    SALEM 34.0
    COIMBATORE AP 33.6
    DHARMAPURI 33.3
    TIRUCHIRAPALLI 33

    Doesn’t look lik Jan 1st week..

    • HR649 – I already said that it looks like summer already in a post yesterday. I dont know what happened to winter. There was no breeze at all during my morning walk and the evening time it seemed there was no breeze at all.
      Regarding IMD’s lack of expertise i am surprised why many people dont take up meteorology as a profession.
      Dynamic models are not that difficult to understand – I did my thesis in non linear dynamics but it does seem today’s Indian youth is not interested in this area as a career. It requires a lot of Maths- poincare numbers, fractals, lyapunov exponents , etc. Should be interesting.

      • Yea gs, it more or less like summer, except the night being slightly cooler. But the temp. will drop down by 11th or 12th jan.. lets wait..

        And do we have any UG or PG programme on meteorology???!! And India is the country Where students are afraid to take up courses other than Engineering, medical or comp. sci and accounts.

      • I had much interest in computers during my 10th and 12th.. but took ECE in college and now gonna do masters in electrical Eng.

  5. A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of southern Alaska on Saturday morning, and a tsunami warning is in effect.

  6. Is this possible? Take a helicopter and go up and stand still. In the next few hours you will be above arabian sea then africa then atlantic ocean then mexico then pacific ocean then taiwan then malayasia then andaman sea then andaman island then bay of bengal. After 24 hours you will come to above same starting place due to rotation of earth. We will come round the world in 24 hrs.

    • u’ll also be rotating wid the earth. So if u fly up directly, u ‘l be seeing the place Wer u started on earth. This happens unless u r influenced by d gravity. if u fly beyond d gravitational pull, u can watch d earth rotation and wt u said can happen, which is impossible for a helicopter.

  7. HR649 – There are no courses or academic programs for working as a professional meteorologist. Suffice to say you need to have a background in the following areas
    1) Fluid Mechanics
    2) Linear/Non linear dynamics
    3) Statistics
    4) Finite element computing.
    You also need to study geosciences. That should be adequate for a career in meteorology. Engineers and physicists can easily become professional meteorologists.

    • To be sure you also need sound mathematical training in partial differential equations, multivariable calculus and the mathematics of non linear functions.

  8. Whats happening around the world…I thought that only Tamilnadu is facing the hot in january, but even australia and arjentina too facing the hot climate

    • as per JUPI comment, it would have intensified because of ACC, but here the pressure have increased…i can’t understand

    • is it because of the mjo that have left the indian ocean and moved into maritime continent? that’s why it taking recurve it seems after it find out the absence of mjo in indian ocean when it nears malaysia

  9. Tropical Storm Sonamu

    —– Current Analysis —–
    Date : 05 JAN 2013 Time : 163000 UTC
    Lat : 7:27:26 N Lon : 110:06:08 E

    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    2.9 /1001.9mb/ 43.0kt

  10. I was extremely interested in Meteorology.Geography,weather & Climate was my favorite subjects in school. But in the late early 2000 there weren’t much scope for meteorology and moreover there is always this pressure to find a job that pays u more.

  11. Somebody mentioned yesterday its hot outside and temp is around 31.5. We have not crossed 30.6 this year and yesterday was 29.9.

    Expecting night time temp to fall below 19 by 20th

  12. In tamilnadu sun rises in east and sets at west and in afternoon it is in the middle of sky (ie) above us and shadows will be short and it will be long during morning and evenings. In north and south poles where the sun rises and where it will be at noon and how the shadows will be?

  13. 90B ,new convection building around the system…SHEAR around the N,NW,NE part of the system is low and moderate near the center and southern part of the system…..

  14. bangalore’s winter is over, temperatures have been steadily rising, becoming very uncomfortable, its that time of the year now until April when guys in chennai will like to compare bangalore and chennai’s temps and feel happy. Only 1 last hope or 1 last cold wave which could last for a few days will be when the winds from north india start blowing south and could bring down minimum temps for a few days. Apart from that its a long sultry summer for bangalore.. We could see above 35 temps very soon.

  15. WATER CRISIS LOOMING LARGE
    Tamil Nadu’s seven-year-long dream run in the form of higher rainfall during the northeast monsoon (October-December) has come to an end with the State recording 16 per cent less rainfall than the normal in the last three months and raising grim prospects for the summer months ahead.

    Not only did the State record a negative departure of rainfall for the overall season this time but also 21 out of 32 districts received deficit rainfall.

    The underlying message: the possibility of water shortage looms large over different parts of the State this summer.

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