Hope for 2012 NEM rains still exists for Tamil Nadu & Chennai, mean while Somalia braces for 2nd Cyclone of this Season

Last year Very Severe Cyclone Thane gave over 100 mm rains for Chennai on December 30. This year, most Numerical models predict heavy rains for Tamil Nadu coast including Chennai from 28th extending into New Year eve on December 31st. As on 23.12.2012, Tamil Nadu has got 358 mm rainfall against normal rainfall of 429 mm with a deficient of – 16%. The expected spell during last days of the year is the only hope bringing NEM rainfall into normal category.

prec12

Since 2005, NEM has never let the Chennai City down with its rains. Its been an extraordinary wet run from 2005 and Chennai people have forgotten the dry days of 2000 to 2004. After the failure of SWM in Tamil Nadu in 2012, all the reservoir and dams across the state and in Chennai city are having less than 50% water, we badly need this last spell at the end of the year, which itself is an rarest of rare activity.

Moreover, this year North East Monsoon is expected to spill over into January 2013 and models have been showing rainfall in Tamil Nadu upto Pongal. Very interesting days ahead for rain lovers and it will be interesting to see when IMD will announce the NEM withdrawal from Tamil Nadu.

246 thoughts on “Hope for 2012 NEM rains still exists for Tamil Nadu & Chennai, mean while Somalia braces for 2nd Cyclone of this Season

  1. i am so let down by the NEM 2012 rains. Even depressed to post comments and was a silent reader for the past one month.

    Late December and January rains. The blog is set to create new records in January too.

  2. it have been to beach restort for a day in ECR, i could see to bay with lot of clouds in morning… waves were heavier…. amazing to see bay in morning..

  3. Good morning to all

    This weekend will be very crucial and as per current trends looks lot more positive when compared to forecasts for the past weeks of this December. Hope the rains are not going to miss us this time around. A complete washout of India-pak match is not going to affect as much as rains missing us. Lets wait and see how this years rain ends.

  4. Tropical Cyclone Threatens Somalia

    Rainfall from this system will likely reach Somalia starting Monday afternoon and will continue through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will generally average 2-4 inches (50-100 mm), with local amounts exceeding 6 inches (150 mm). For some areas, this would approach or even equal the normal annual rainfall.

    Widespread strong winds are not expected to impact Somalia as the system is expected to weaken, perhaps even dissipate, prior to making landfall early Tuesday. Still, a few wind gusts of 30-40 mph (50-65 kph) may occur, especially at the coast.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-cyclone-threatens-som/3071873

  5. Murjan was taken by Somalia and Mahesan too wont be ours

    The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west – southwestwards, and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 23rdrd December, 2012 near latitude 8.50N and longitude 57.0.0E, about 1700 km west-southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep). The system is likely to intensify further and move west-southwestwards and cross Somalia coast during late evening/night of 25thth December 2012.

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf

    • wind shear matters for any system..lpa is also a system.. for example,if system is bounded below 11N…without circulation rain clouds cant reach n.tn coast… so ther will be a circulation..and so divergence,convergence,shear ,acc everything will come into play..

  6. Sachin’s ill timed retirement

    Its always good to retire after saying this is your last game (like Ponting) or retiring after you have played a match (Dravid)

    When did Tendulkar last play an ODI? Could he time his test retirement to perfection?

  7. Trend of 2012

    initial forecasts are positive, big numbers forecasted for Chennai

    Few days later, its starts reducing.

    Finallly we get almost nothing.

    Unfortunately next system is folowing this trend.

    • In this,I agree with you.
      Chennai has been hit by horrible luck all around.Rains to the east,rains to the west and we’ve been dry.
      I hope this year is a very abnormal exception & no other future monsoons follow suit.

  8. I said end of NEM Dec 31st, because thats how IMD calculates. Jan 1st is not counted in NEM

    Till now the predictions are,

    Parthasri35 – 90 mm
    karthickstorm – 35 mm
    Raijin – 20 mm
    KEA – 17 mm

  9. Storm in Arabian sea is weakening due to high shear.The circulation has become exposed for past 12 hours.SST also decreasing along its path.

    Disturbance persists in south bay of Bengal.

    Depression has formed to the west of Philippines.The system is under favorable SST but upper level winds are only slightly conductive.There is potential of it reaching a minimal storm as it nears Philippines.

  10. Accuweather forecast for Chennai changed like this

    rain from wed morning thro late sun night
    rain from wed eve thro sun night
    rain from thu morn thro sun morn
    rain from thu night thro sat night..

    wat will be next?

    • Raijin, i hardly see any serious formation of any system or clouds even in the range of about 900kms east of Chennai.from the latest IMD sat image….I really dont know as to where the easterlies are going to come from….Kadavule…Jupi-Can you post the latest update from any model..Eagerly look forward to the rains as ive to get close to 1025mm(Total NEM) the prediction ive made a month back..Would be happy even if its 100mm rain from the easterlies..

    • Heart Touching Letter from Sachin . 😥 . . Must Read

      Letter from Sachin Tendulkar to all his fans through out the World:

      Dear fans,

      I am saddened as I write this letter. I know I have disappointed you with the series loss against England and my performance isn’t what you have always expected of me. I have always given my best for the team, but the results are not in my favour this time around. People are clamouring for my retirement and I can’t agree more with them. I have not been living up to the standards that I have set for myself through the years and I am indeed answerable to the fans.

      I apologize to you for my dismal performances, and for failing you time and again. It is a general misconception among people that I have grown complacent and taking things for granted. But I can assure you that I am the same person who made his debut at the age of 16 as an excited teenager. I have been following my routine right from the day I made my debut till today. Nothing has changed, neither the preparation nor the mind-set. Maybe age is finally catching up to me, something I have been trying to fight for the major part of the last five years. I have been training harder to keep myself fit and strong in order to be able to give my best.

      Cricket has been my calling right from a young age. I still remember the day me and Vinod were playing together in a Harris-Shield trophy match, where we put up a 600 run partnership. The immense enjoyment of being on the field all day long with my best friend was all I could dream about for the next few days. That was the day I decided to play cricket for the rest of my life, for I loved it more than anything; food, chocolates, bicycles- things that a fourteen year old could long for.

      Years have passed after that and things are not the same anymore. I have matured both as a person and as a player. But the hunger still remains the same. I still want to do well and give my best whenever I walk on the field; something that has been my mantra all through the years. I have achieved so much in cricket- the fame, the money and the compliments came to me on their own. I am proud of my records when I look back at them today. The only thing I almost missed out on was the World Cup; I got there too in the end, with a team as determined as I was, who strove along with me to achieve the glory that I was unable to attain for almost 22 years.

      But the real struggle was after the World Cup, when I had to suffer through another lean patch, which I am going through even now. People wanted me to go now that I have gotten my wishes fulfilled. They said it was the right time for me to retire, since my dream has been achieved. But I felt I can contribute more to the cause of the Indian team. The team needs some good youngsters to fill the places of seniors when we retire, and someone should be there to guide them, or so we felt. It might be a wrong decision but it was for the greater good. Perhaps we realized our mistake when we heard “the seniors are selfish to block the place of talented youngsters!”

      Our only thoughts were about setting the team up for the youngsters and getting the tough tours to England and Australia out of the way, so that the youngsters can have a smoother path into the test team. But we did not consider our own problems, which were the roots of our own destruction.

      It was a tough time for us after Australia, losing both VVS and Rahul. It brought me back down to earth, and I started contemplating retirement. But I had some solace after the century against Bangladesh, though we were unlucky to lose the match. Two series later, we were facing the same predicament against England at home and it was humiliating to lose the series. It was a nightmare for us, having had to endure the cricket crazy fans’ reaction. People started talking about my retirement again, claiming that I was selfish and I had to go sooner rather than later. They even said I am choosing my matches for the fear of facing quality opponents. It isn’t true, of course. I am an old man who wants to spend some quality time with my kids. They should know me enough to call me father and I do not want to miss their growing up years. Therefore, I take some time off between series to be with them.

      I have to admit that I am a bit selfish, for I have been playing the game for the better part of my life. I have not known anything other than cricket. Every day I wake up to take up a bat and I sleep after arranging my kit bags. It has been a penance for the last 25 years and it would be hard for me to just give up everything. Retirement would be equal to death for me, as I have lived cricket all my life. Frankly, I do not know what to do with myself once I retire. Will I be able to secure a job as a TV commentator, a trend that has been catching up with some former players, or would I be a successful coach? Nothing pleases me like playing cricket and I am not sure whether I am made for other things in life. I have watched many players retiring, but I never had to think about how they would have felt while retiring. It was an irrelevant thought a few years back, but now I know how exactly each of them would have felt.

      I know it’s time for me to go, but as a fellow Indian, I ask this of you dear fans; I am not able to let go of cricket after all these years, and even talking about it makes me feel worse. I just need some time to sort my life out, to decide on what to do with myself once I retire. I am not here for the fame or for the records but for the passion that I had and I have for this game right from the day I picked up a bat. I am making up my mind and I need a little more time to announce my retirement. It is a humble request from a dedicated servant of cricket and I would feel happy if you oblige me.

      Thank you

      Sachin Ramesh Tendulkar. Todays FB post by Ravichandran Ashvin, I doubt the authenticity of this post ..

  11. At 4:00 am today, Tropical Depression “QUINTA” was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 400 km East of Surigao City (10.0°N, 129.5°E). Northeast monsoon affecting Luzon.

  12. Previously models were showing the system nearing central tn coast.. So cola and foreca showed sum towers.but now the models r showing as if system skipping tn… Tats y cola reduced it… Tis disturbance may develop in arb sea…so ther may be a another system for somalia in jan 1st week… At the same time ,ther wil be a system in bay around jan 7th…

  13. jupi

    As of now, most of the models are not showing the system reach our coast.

    As sel said, we can’t expect much as of now for n-tn and even for c-tn from this system unless some dramatic changes occur in the forecast of upcoming days

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