Chances of rain in the last 10 days until the official end of NEM is extremely less. Chennai expected to end with a huge deficit.
Chances of rain in the last 10 days until the official end of NEM is extremely less. Chennai expected to end with a huge deficit.
so the world ends with a huge deficit ?
Its not the end of our World, but its the end of our monsoon..
hi guys gud morning
happy doomsday 😀
check this out!!! http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/maya
Good joke..
partha
but looks thrilling right???! 😛
If you trust then it would be thrilling..
what happened about the boxing day cyclone???is that not happening now?
it was boxed and packed to somewhere else..might be in south-china sea
Thanks Raijin…My gut feeling says we might just cover up with the deficit this NEM itself…This is not based on any astrology or anything in the radar or a satellite image…I don’t know why but i feel we will have the wettest time from December last week which might extend this jan end probably…Again i am not even close to you guys as an expert in this field…Lets hope for the best…I was happy to see dark clouds yesterday and today is not fully clear either…So something might just pop out of the blue and hit Chennai to everyone’s joy…Lets see and hope for the best as all is not over yet because at times even just a day’s rain clears the deficit and ends up with excess rainfall..and the irony is this normally happens when everyone says there is no chance of rain…guess we will have to wait and see…and yes i agree with everyone as per the looks of it everything is over but as the saying goes never say never…….
@gamerz-same here too..Nothing more to add…In our country,the most used word is–Hope– hope Sachin will score moro, hope Chennai auto guys would change, hope roads will be better for driving, hope i get my tatkal tkt moro, hope to see a cleaner coovum etc….the above said hopes have gone with the wind..One hope always remain and thats our fav NEM…
IMD has deactivated Monsoon page. Chapter closed.
Nunga 29.2 & 21.2C
Meena 29.5 & 20.7C
partha
lol it is still there! 🙂 http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/168hgfs_850wind.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/168hgfs_925wind.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/168hgfs_mslp.htm
but ecmwf, cmc, gfs are not predicting anything to N-TN as of now
foreca predicts rains from 28th 😎
http://foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
http://foreca.com/India/Union_Territory_of_Puducherry/karaikal?tenday
another computer malfunction
foreca cant go terribly wrong
NEM is alive.mite extend till jan mid week
Could be so, Bombay too had their last spell of heavy rains measuring 15 cms or so in the first week of Oct this year after a long lull in September…SWM revived in the last and first week of October this year to wipe of some deficit for the west coast..Still they fell short.of their quota,,,
World Ends on Friday, 21 December 2012, 16:41:00 IST 😀
still 4hrs 14mins to go?? 😮
yea… nw its 3 hours and 38 mins… 😉
Much activity in S. china sea and WEstern pacific
http://www.chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/
2012 NEM was’t that bad compared to 2003
2003 – 64% deficit (47% deficit for the year)
2012 – 35% deficit (30% deficit for the year)
What will be interesting now to see how 2013 shapes up. 2004 was not good.
2004 – 33% deficit (15% deficit for the year)
Could we have another disaster in 2013?
but the demand is higher compared to 2003 with the current population
System in bay is for sure.. Position of the ridge will decide the landfall. Sum model r showing the system moving twrds lanka (???) anyhow lets c…. Going with the mjo, bay may deal with two system back to back….so Get ready to c the action..
Rains predicted by foreca for Karaikal from 26th.
If even rains in Chidambaram then veeranam will get water, the other source for chennai.
Waiting for tsunami…. 😀
In Bugarach peak , France… 😆
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/maya
Hyderabad Sun Risers, Official Video….
http://www.chennaibulletin.com/sports/official-video-of-sunrisers-rise-up-to-every-challenge/
Clear and clearer weather for the rest of December! Gud bye NEM 2012.
Advance New yr wishes…. 10 days and 10 hours more…
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/newyear
Low pressure in arabian sea has shown some slight organization for past few hours.
Sundar, here is another screenshot of my EVDO’s speed… 😉
Time – 10pm
Max, 2.6mbps…. look at the avg. – its solid between 1.9 -2.3mbps..
The ITCZ area runs to the south of srilanka
means that any system that forms in the bay will hit srilanka as per ITCZ…am i right?
It means the formation will take place in the ITCZ area .Furthur movement of system depends on steering winds.
thnks for correcting me
Invest 90A is now with intensity 15, and slp 1005hpa
current position, 8.2N, 66.8E…
90A Invest in Arabian Sea…
An area of convection has persisted near 7.7n 67.4e,
Approximately 540 nm west-southwest of cochin, india.
Animated Infrared satellite imagery reveals flaring convection around a
Broad low level circulation center (llcc). A 201727z amsu 89 ghz
Microwave image shows fragmented deep convection and overall poor
Organization. Scatterometer data from 201902z shows the llcc is
Embedded along a line of sharp troughing extending across the
Southern arabian sea.
Upper level analysis reveals the llcc is in an area of low (05-10 knots) vertical wind shear and has good Poleward outflow into the westerlies over central india.
Sea Surface temperatures are favorable (28-30 degrees celsius) for
Development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to
15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1009
Mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
Cyclone within the next 24 hours is low……
There is a some possibility of it becoming a depression as it moves westward.
Facepalm https://m.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-d.ak/hphotos-ak-ash3/15811_406451179433160_956741993_a.jpg
Convection steadily increasing http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc12/IO/90A.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20121221.0900.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.90AINVEST.15kts-1010mb-82N-668E.100pc.jpg
slender hope with CMC and Nogaps from 27th dec
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=144&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
Naanga Sollachey yaarumey kekkalai.. pala peru system varudu vardu nnu sonnanga… Ippo enna aachu ? NEM Mudinji pochu…. Enakku Ippo isk isk nnu satham kekuthu.. Yaarukaavuthu kekkutha ?
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg Two lows and high hopes…
only few mins left according to this website
http://www.december212012.com/
Gangnam style also about to hit 1000,000,000 views. 😆
Dash,
Prepare yourself….
yea.. 998,088,796 now
USA Today Forecast heavy rain on 30th December.
KEA this is FYI.
Thats the best news of the day. Looking forward to Dec 30th
Rain forecast for the month end from accuweather.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/month/206671?view=table
not so good to satisfy our needs
Raijin,
Many said NEM is over, but the hope has come back.
I did not lose hope, take my words.
Mayan calendar ends in another 17 mins….
Guys will the world end before Feb 2013 only an engineering student want this to happen
the world ends in another 7 mins!!!
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/maya
2 more mins…..
1 more min!!!! 😀
happy mayan new year!!!!! 🙂
Look at this comedy, morning it was a countdown to doomsday. They said world ends at 16.41 IST. Now the countdown has changed after 16.41.
It is counting the new world time. Look at it.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/maya
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_mslp.htm
This time Ridge will be the Main Villan for this system to reach our coast
Ridge will move away from 26th. Wait till that time.
lets see
Good news, Good news, Very Good news,
System looks like a Depression coming towards north coastal TN on 30th Dec 2012. This is system is formed in SE bay on 27th as LPA.
It moves towards Srilanka initially and after nearing the coast it moves in NW direction towards north TN and crossing on 31st Dec 2012.
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/F_574_CH-21.htm
nilam part 2?
may not be that much intense, probable for a D.
wow
Ok parthasri now u predict Ind-Pak match likely a wash out on Dec 30! Lets see how this one goes after a series of colossal flops!
Rain will start from 29th itself, dont wait till 30.
I said a system will come on boxing day in bay, that is happening now.
Dont forget my predictions given earlier.
Suundar,
Do you want to see India losing to Pak in chennai?
Even foreca now predicting rains from 29th for chennai.
I dont want any match at all! Is it possible?
Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days up to 0830 hours IST of 28th December, 2012
♦ A fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region from 26th.
♦ An easterly wave would affect extreme south peninsular India from 25th onwards
causing scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity.
♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over Andaman & Nicobar
Islands.
♦ Mainly dry weather would prevail over rest of the country.
😀
partha
this looks good….
but this one look gr8!!!!!! 😎 😀
this one also looking gud for us….
Chennaiiiiii and Partha sirrrrrrrrrrrr….rrrr uuuuuu readyyyyyyyyyyyyyy for the boxing event???????? 😆
Low pressure in south arabian sea slowly organizing under favorable conditions.It could become a depression as it moves westward.
cloud bands are wrapping near center.Satellite animation shows good rotation in the clouds.
Gangnam Style crosses the milestone..
1,000,382,639 views…
Hasnt our blog cross that yet?
no we had crossed jus 1 million.. 1,000,000
Just a few more zeros
few zeros to the right, matters a lot.. 😉 but one day we will..
tats why they predicted end of the world
lol…. y do say so???
lol…. y do u say so???
Vinodh, I saw Frankenweenie, it was amazing.. A Tough contender, but i think brave and wreak it ralph are better than tis..
wreak*
wreck*
Good morning to All!
As usual,I am scanning the net for some +ve news..what do we have?
1.Accuweather seems to be on our side predicting 60mm rains for remaining 2012 and another 55mm until MidJan 2013
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/month/206671?view=table
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/january-weather/206671?monyr=1/1/2013&view=table
2.Satellite images show something brewing in the bay
http://www.kea.metsite.com/SAT.htm
http://www.pdc.org/atlas/?id=5992
3.BL indicates a system to come to SE India by NY eve and also highlights the record lows in reservoirs across South
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/fog-conditions-likely-to-continue-in-n-india/article4226302.ece?homepage=true
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/water-level-in-reservoirs-in-south-dips-to-decades-low/article4226584.ece?homepage=true
Interesting days ahead to check we get the 100mm forecasted by accuweather..Foreca seems to be agreeing.
Have had many predictions this NEM draw a blank! So lets see how this goes, but Iam not optimistic at all considering sunny days this Dec.
nothing for us…. some activity in S.China sea also
Sundar, the best speed I got till now… 2.8mbps… 368KBp/s….
gfs http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12122112/98.track.current.png
UKMET http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/12122112/69.track.png
850mb vorticity
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Divergence in the south-east bay
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=
Convergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
24hr shear tendency
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
circulation spotted s.east of lanka http://s10.postimage.org/nubbshmx3/wm5shr.gif
at present there r two disturbance in bay….one in s.east bay and one close to lanka…. system close to lanka is showing gud improvement
http://202.54.31.51/mme/RainMean_week2.gif http://202.54.31.51/mme/RainAno_week2.gif
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=indi_ortho_wind
many models suggesting a system to develop in the last week… tats interesting sel…And now the HPA, Anti-cyclone, etc will also work hand in hand…
90A Strengthened further with intensity 25… with moderate shear to its south west… it is currently at 8.9N, 65.1E…. Also JTWC upgraded their warning to medium…
yes…. it organised http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/COLOR/SOUTHERNASIA/index.htm
which direction will it move?
cimss tc analysis of 90A shows sst near arb sea sytem is 29c, shear around it is 5-10 knts..more than enough..but sst decreasing slowly in its westerly path
Sat image luks like v r in mid oct …Entire ind ocean is active..
Low pressure in arabian sea would develop into a depression soon.Satellite image shows organizing system with clouds started to develop more near the center.There is also possibility of minimal cyclone developing in next 48 hours.The anticyclone over the system providing good outflow and low shear.
There is another disturbance close to srilanka which will bring heavy rains to srilanka and south TN in coming days.The development will be hindered as its interacting with srilanka
what direction will the LP in arabian sea move?
will move west twrds somalia
hr649,I have to see frankenweenie . The competition would be between Brave,Wreck it ralph and Frankenweenie.Wreck it Ralph has better chance of winning.
yea.. Anyways its gng to be Walt Disney Pictures……. have to watch Rise of the Guardians in Auro 3D….
boxing day system hitting jaffna http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!Asia!chart.gif
All the models show good activity in the upcoming week.Most of them at the moment predict them to go well south of Chennai.
Watch for the upcoming model updates.
NEM is not dead.
The low pressure in arabian sea would have intensified into a depression.No official confirmation as of now.Latest Image shows a band of clouds wrapping to the center.Vorticity has increased for past few hours.It looks like a depression.
today’s max – 29.1*C
foreca predicting rain on wednesday.. dec 26
officially declared 90A is a depression …
as a depression,.
http://www.boomproxy.com/browse.php?u=Oi8vd3d3Lm5ybG1yeS5uYXZ5Lm1pbC9odGRvY3NfZHluX2FwYWNoZS9QVUJMSUMvdGNfcGFnZXMvdGh1bWJzL3NtYWxsL3RjMTIvSU8vOTBBLklOVkVTVC92aXMvZ2VvLzFrbV96b29tLzIwMTIxMjIyLjEyMDAubWV0ZW83LngudmlzMWttX2hpZ2guOTBBSU5WRVNULjI1a3RzLTEwMDRtYi04OU4tNjQ4RS4xMDBwYy5qcGc%3D&b=13
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22NDND DECEMBER, 2012 NEAR LATITUDE 09.00N AND LONGITUDE 63.00E, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AMINI DIVI (43311). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WESTWARDS TOWARDS SOMALIA COASTS DURING NEXT 72 HRS.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -700C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 05.00N AND 12.50N AND LONG 57.00E AND 700E.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA.
REMARK:
THE LATEST ASCAT OBSERVATION AT 0541 UTC OF TODAY INDICATES MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 20-25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AND 15-20 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION. THE SHIP (LOCATED NEAR LAT. 12.10N AND LONG. 61.10E) AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY REPORTED SURFACE WIND OF 020/23 KNOTS.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE < 1. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO PHASE 3 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. HENCE IT IS FAVOURABLE FOR GENSIS OF THE SYSTEM.THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-30 DEG. C. AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE AND IT GRADUALLY DECREASES TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT DECREASES TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 13 DEG. N AND HENCE LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HRS AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS.
CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS DID NOT PICK UP GENESIS OF THE SYSTEM. THEY SUGGEST MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA. FURTHER, THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT AND THE SYSTEM WOULD LIE NEAR SOMALIA COAST
Can we believe CMC model? some hvy rains strting on 27th for entire TN coast
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=120&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
Which model is more reliable?
GFS or CMC or NOGAPS or CFS or ?
Thngs r lkng brighter wit wet/drk forcst post chrstms
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/daily-weather-forecast/206671?day=6
Hope,Hope,Hope, Hope and more hope…….
Is Rain a comin to chn on 30th?
People in TN are under big depression due water/power probs, so why wrry abt a depression in arabn sea which is no use for us?
no mttr hw mch u explain abt the system, watvr hs to cme wll cme… like this…
vadivelu eat vengaya dosai at dubangur hotel..( the titel is awesome…:-) )
luks good till jan 10 http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/amaps.all.50to20.gif
current system s.east of lanka shows increased activity inspite of land interaction
England need 17 off 9 balls….
Poor Bowling by the Indians… It was a captain’s knock, Morgan stole the Indian Victory along with Lumb..
CTT -70
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htmCTT -70
over bay system
90A will be a minmal cyclone in few hours..
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io9012web.txt
90A gained intensity.. 30 kts now..
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO902012
circulation visible in our system.. llcc still not defined..
still No sign of rain
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/doppler-radar-products/
Good morning!Eternal Optimist reporting on a pleasant,foggy and lazy morning..towers getting bulit by some forecasts
Foreca shows heavy rains
http://www.foreca.in/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?details=20121227
Hope is always a nice 4 letter word!
rare dec system in arb sea.. imd mme track http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/MME_TRACK_INTENSITY.gif
JTWC warning : TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED AND DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY, A NEW RAIN BAND HAS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 222123Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD CREATING
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS IS ALSO DISCERNIBLE IN RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 04A IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG NORTHERN
SOMALIA COAST AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL, DUE TO THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO LANDFALL, AFTER WHICH, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH SOME
INDICATING A RECURVATURE BACK INTO THE WATER AND TOWARDS THE EQUATOR.
GIVEN THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE MODEL DIVERGENCE AT
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 221830Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21
PGTW 221830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. //
NNNN
Somalia again.. And its DECEMBER
raj.. aama da.saddest part is tat disturbance formed in bay… vast area of arb sea easily used the chance… everything was favourable wen it moved out of bay….
Tropical cyclone FOUR in Arabian sea..
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO042012
again models failed to pick it…arb sea remains with the mystery
less significant
The TC looks weak.. But expected to gain strength upto 55 kts in open waters..
Also bay is still active.. Gud flow from the east..
washout on 30th.dnt waste money in buying tickets
foreca predicts gud rains from 27th for chennai
http://foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
omg…jon and raj ..look at the convection http://s12.postimage.org/ay6oar6bh/sector_vis.jpg
yup.. seems like a gud circulation
eastern srilanka facing record floods.. more to come
Our monsoon’s cyclone inauguration by Arabian sea (Murjan) and now the closing ceremony again.. (Four) as of now.. Hope it’l be the Mahasen..
final spell mite well come to the rescue..hope we get atleast 15cm
delhi records 5.9c
ayyyayo…. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12122218/alltrack.png
cmc http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/12122212/101.track.png
NOGAPS http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/12122212/52.track.png
UK http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/12122212/83.track.png
ther will be a DD or TS in bay with the support of mjo phase 3 & 4.