219 thoughts on “Last 10 days of NEM

      • Thanks Raijin…My gut feeling says we might just cover up with the deficit this NEM itself…This is not based on any astrology or anything in the radar or a satellite image…I don’t know why but i feel we will have the wettest time from December last week which might extend this jan end probably…Again i am not even close to you guys as an expert in this field…Lets hope for the best…I was happy to see dark clouds yesterday and today is not fully clear either…So something might just pop out of the blue and hit Chennai to everyone’s joy…Lets see and hope for the best as all is not over yet because at times even just a day’s rain clears the deficit and ends up with excess rainfall..and the irony is this normally happens when everyone says there is no chance of rain…guess we will have to wait and see…and yes i agree with everyone as per the looks of it everything is over but as the saying goes never say never…….

      • @gamerz-same here too..Nothing more to add…In our country,the most used word is–Hope– hope Sachin will score moro, hope Chennai auto guys would change, hope roads will be better for driving, hope i get my tatkal tkt moro, hope to see a cleaner coovum etc….the above said hopes have gone with the wind..One hope always remain and thats our fav NEM…

  1. 2012 NEM was’t that bad compared to 2003

    2003 – 64% deficit (47% deficit for the year)
    2012 – 35% deficit (30% deficit for the year)

    What will be interesting now to see how 2013 shapes up. 2004 was not good.

    2004 – 33% deficit (15% deficit for the year)

    Could we have another disaster in 2013?

  2. System in bay is for sure.. Position of the ridge will decide the landfall. Sum model r showing the system moving twrds lanka (???) anyhow lets c…. Going with the mjo, bay may deal with two system back to back….so Get ready to c the action..

  3. 90A Invest in Arabian Sea…

    An area of convection has persisted near 7.7n 67.4e,
    Approximately 540 nm west-southwest of cochin, india.

    Animated Infrared satellite imagery reveals flaring convection around a
    Broad low level circulation center (llcc). A 201727z amsu 89 ghz
    Microwave image shows fragmented deep convection and overall poor
    Organization. Scatterometer data from 201902z shows the llcc is
    Embedded along a line of sharp troughing extending across the
    Southern arabian sea.

    Upper level analysis reveals the llcc is in an area of low (05-10 knots) vertical wind shear and has good Poleward outflow into the westerlies over central india.

    Sea Surface temperatures are favorable (28-30 degrees celsius) for
    Development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to
    15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1009
    Mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
    Cyclone within the next 24 hours is low……

  4. Naanga Sollachey yaarumey kekkalai.. pala peru system varudu vardu nnu sonnanga… Ippo enna aachu ? NEM Mudinji pochu…. Enakku Ippo isk isk nnu satham kekuthu.. Yaarukaavuthu kekkutha ?

    • Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days up to 0830 hours IST of 28th December, 2012
      ♦ A fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region from 26th.
      ♦ An easterly wave would affect extreme south peninsular India from 25th onwards
      causing scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity.
      ♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over Andaman & Nicobar
      Islands.
      ♦ Mainly dry weather would prevail over rest of the country.
      😀

  5. Good morning to All!
    As usual,I am scanning the net for some +ve news..what do we have?

    1.Accuweather seems to be on our side predicting 60mm rains for remaining 2012 and another 55mm until MidJan 2013
    http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/month/206671?view=table
    http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/january-weather/206671?monyr=1/1/2013&view=table

    2.Satellite images show something brewing in the bay
    http://www.kea.metsite.com/SAT.htm
    http://www.pdc.org/atlas/?id=5992

    3.BL indicates a system to come to SE India by NY eve and also highlights the record lows in reservoirs across South
    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/fog-conditions-likely-to-continue-in-n-india/article4226302.ece?homepage=true
    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/water-level-in-reservoirs-in-south-dips-to-decades-low/article4226584.ece?homepage=true

    Interesting days ahead to check we get the 100mm forecasted by accuweather..Foreca seems to be agreeing.

  6. 90A Strengthened further with intensity 25… with moderate shear to its south west… it is currently at 8.9N, 65.1E…. Also JTWC upgraded their warning to medium…

  7. Low pressure in arabian sea would develop into a depression soon.Satellite image shows organizing system with clouds started to develop more near the center.There is also possibility of minimal cyclone developing in next 48 hours.The anticyclone over the system providing good outflow and low shear.
    There is another disturbance close to srilanka which will bring heavy rains to srilanka and south TN in coming days.The development will be hindered as its interacting with srilanka

  8. The low pressure in arabian sea would have intensified into a depression.No official confirmation as of now.Latest Image shows a band of clouds wrapping to the center.Vorticity has increased for past few hours.It looks like a depression.

  9. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22NDND DECEMBER, 2012 NEAR LATITUDE 09.00N AND LONGITUDE 63.00E, ABOUT 1100 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AMINI DIVI (43311). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE WESTWARDS TOWARDS SOMALIA COASTS DURING NEXT 72 HRS.
    ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -700C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 05.00N AND 12.50N AND LONG 57.00E AND 700E.
    SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA.
    REMARK:
    THE LATEST ASCAT OBSERVATION AT 0541 UTC OF TODAY INDICATES MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 20-25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR AND 15-20 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION. THE SHIP (LOCATED NEAR LAT. 12.10N AND LONG. 61.10E) AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY REPORTED SURFACE WIND OF 020/23 KNOTS.
    CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE < 1. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO PHASE 3 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS. HENCE IT IS FAVOURABLE FOR GENSIS OF THE SYSTEM.THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28-30 DEG. C. AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE AND IT GRADUALLY DECREASES TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT DECREASES TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 13 DEG. N AND HENCE LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HRS AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS.
    CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS DID NOT PICK UP GENESIS OF THE SYSTEM. THEY SUGGEST MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA. FURTHER, THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT AND THE SYSTEM WOULD LIE NEAR SOMALIA COAST

  10. JTWC warning : TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED AND DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
    NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
    ADDITIONALLY, A NEW RAIN BAND HAS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
    QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
    EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 222123Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
    CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
    FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD CREATING
    EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    THIS IS ALSO DISCERNIBLE IN RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
    CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
    MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 04A IS EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG NORTHERN
    SOMALIA COAST AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY,
    PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL, DUE TO THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE
    UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT UP TO LANDFALL, AFTER WHICH, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH SOME
    INDICATING A RECURVATURE BACK INTO THE WATER AND TOWARDS THE EQUATOR.
    GIVEN THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE MODEL DIVERGENCE AT
    THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
    THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
    HARBOR HI 221830Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21
    PGTW 221830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 11 FEET.
    NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. //
    NNNN

  11. The TC looks weak.. But expected to gain strength upto 55 kts in open waters..

    Also bay is still active.. Gud flow from the east..

  12. Our monsoon’s cyclone inauguration by Arabian sea (Murjan) and now the closing ceremony again.. (Four) as of now.. Hope it’l be the Mahasen..

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