682 thoughts on “November ends with least rainfall in more than 4 decades

  1. The eye and eyewall feature of bhopa is close to 1 degree latitude and banding feature is of T.5.Total intensity would be T5.5 or T6.0.The storm would be upgraded to a cat 3 by morning.

    • Typhoon bhopa is exploding in intensity for past 6 hours .A well developing eye clearly visible in satellite.SSMI image reveals am impressive eyewall around the eye with very intense convection.The storm is under favorable shear and SST and its moving away from equator.The wind speed should be in excess of 100 Knots .

  2. The clouds are disorganized in the bay due to moderate shear.The disturbance will have hard time fighting the shear.JTWC in its new update noted that system has dissipated as the LLC became very weak.The disturbance will track westwards towards TN coast

  3. A bad news !!

    The area of convection previously located near 9.5n 90.9e,
    Has dissipated and is no longer suspect for the development of a
    Significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

  4. The bay system has encountered shear during it’s formation itself.
    It is now showing showing intense convection and rebuilding.
    Shear has lessened over 12 hours.So we will have to see how this disturbance grows.
    Shear is decreasing exponentially.We might have something on our hands here.
    December will not go unnoticed.

  5. I didnt lose my hope..Shear may decrease further..so system intensification wil increase gradually.. Lets c wat 8.30 update is showing.if the shear decrease further, it will rise like a phoenix.

  6. Shear to the east of the system is just 5-10kts.
    West of the system is practically a no-shear zone.
    Steering winds-W-NW
    Everything favourable right now.

  7. Good Morning,

    Early winter sets in europe like germany and czech have already started having snow fall including moscow having snowfall which is more than the normal…

    whether it will trigger cold weather in india also..

    • 35/4 Lyon gone.
      Australia don’t want to put him in this position.
      He will bat defensively for the next 2 hours now.No fun.

  8. Clarke is shouting “Wait!” as loudly as he can.He doesn’t want to be the reason Ponting goes out shaking his head.
    Added pressure on Clarke.

  9. NEM has effected generation of wind energy in tn due to lack of sufficient NE winds…. sun news.

    Will it be a double blow? with no water and electricity basic needs… in summer 2013

      • what a pathetic situation in TN…Its time that the solar unit business will bloom very faster than ups-inverter business

      • since last year NEM was good they were able to produce 3000 mw. but although we had bad SWM we were able to produce good energy from may to oct.

        If SWM winds starts blowing from may,may be current shortage will be reduced

  10. Ricky ponting-OUT.
    As I suspected Clarke and Ponting can’t bat together like this.
    I was hoping Clarke would go but well.

  11. Typhoon Bhopa has a very defined eyewall with intense convection.The whole core of the system occupies 1 degree latitude with banding feature.The intensity of convection in eyewall has increased for past 3 hours.The intensity seems to be T6.5 by dvork estimate. Winds would be around 120-125 knots.

      • Shear has started to decease near the low pressure area.Currently its around 20 knots which would hinder the development.The convection looks very disorganized.minor development possible now as shear is reducing in central bay.

      • shear is reducing now thats a good sign.Still the shear is moderate-high in central bay.Any development of the system will be slow to occur in coming days.There is absolutely no shear to the east of the system.The more the system slows down the better it will come under low shear.The models are pushing the system rapidly thats the reason its not showing any organised development.
        Today it wont throw a big surprise but since shear is reducing in central bay any development will be slow.

  12. Yesterday i have informed everyone to wait till tomorrow to see the formation and more convection.

    Wind shear is reducing now. This is the good sign. We will get rains from 03rd.

    So do not worry.

      • yes,the development would be slow if it carries the same forward movement as per the models.If it slows down or becomes stationary then it will get into the low shear to the east which is very closeby the system.

  13. As much the system takes time it is good for the system to build. Since the shear over its west is going to come down in next 24 hours.

    If system starts moving after 24 hours then we will have good system and good rains.

  14. For the past few years the rate of intensification of the bay system has come down.90 percent of them are due to shear.Impact of shear in bay has increased for past few years.

  15. Zero Shear to the east of the system.As vinodh says,if it stays stationary,it will develop well.
    But steering winds are already pushing it.

    • NEM was always the system that would be hit the most by climate change around the world. Its too small a window to give TN rainfall. Oh well I just hope we come under the SWM window next year.

      • Remember people – its the retreating SWM. If it retreats too early it will have an impact on Tamil Nadu. You will see this again and again.

    • yup, its more like no volume of air lifted from surface to upper levels.when lot of air molecules lifted from surface the cloud forms.When the low pressure weakens in lower levels it means the air molecules are not lifted above which caused upper anticyclone to weaken as there are less air molecules.

  16. hr649 – I agree with all of your reasons for failure of NEM this year.
    Remember we were supposed to be in the midst of a drought with SWM too in July. Its only August and early September that compensated. Thats the advantage with a longer rainfall season as the SWM.

    • ya…it is going to decrease by 10 knts near the center and decrease by 5knts in entire sw bay so the equation will be like tis…shear around the center will be 10-15 knts and in remaining parts it will be 20knts…it has to decrease further to 10knts so tat v can see a big ts developing in a system.. its coming closer so now the area to develop is being shortened..so shear hav to co-operate wih it 100%

  17. after fab 8 years in a row from 2004 to 11 tn had very normal to excess rainfall in NEM, which is unheard off in it”s history. That may have to end somewhere as were due for failure of NEM…technically nem is long way till december. I think may be NEM would be failure this year?

    this may sound negative but reality is catching up….

  18. GFS has slowed down it’s prediction.It says that in 120 hours,this will be the case.The only thing that is keeping me going.

  19. ABIO10 PGTW 301800
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
    /OCEAN/301800ZNOV-011800ZDEC2012//
    RMKS/
    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 90.9E,
    HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2S 89.5E,
    APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED, BROAD
    CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM
    THE COAST OF SUMATRA TOWARDS THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE SOUTHERN
    INDIAN OCEAN. FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION
    IS BEING FUELED BY CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE WEST AND WINDS FROM THE
    SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    AREA IS LOCATED BENEATH A REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE TO
    HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EQUATORWARD OF A
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE BROAD CIRCULATION BEING UNDER
    MODERATE TO HIGH VWS WITH NO CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS LOW.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
    NNNN

    • Even this so called BUSS model shows more than 60 hrs of rainfall at the rate of 4mm/6hr. So a 4 to 5 cm rain from this BUSS.

      I hope from 3rd morning, all will predict much, much more than that.

      Any how thanks for excellent links which include one at 11:17 hrs post.

  20. Updated Nogaps predicts a depression atleast.The next update will be more promising.System staying put in it’s place.A weak depression as of now with a wide circulation.

  21. So much for optimism. Lets hope it gets really cool so that what little water we have stays around for a bit longer ๐Ÿ˜› But then again that is not going to happen either.

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